689  
FNUS73 KMQT 260957  
FWSMQT  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR SCATTER TO WIND...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI  
557 AM EDT WED APR 26 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON APRIL 26.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING RAIN  
AT TIMES INTO THURSDAY. THERE MAY EVEN BE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.  
SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 MPH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE  
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY AS THE BURN  
SITE WILL STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MIN  
RH VALUES WILL BE MUCH HIGHER THOUGH AROUND 70 PERCENT. PLAN ON WARM  
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS WELL, BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO  
THE WEST AND COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WITH  
LOWER RH VALUES RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY  
COULD REACH OVER 20 MPH, BUT WILL BE LIGHTER ON SATURDAY. MORE RAIN  
MOVES BACK OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG EARLY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS,  
THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY BY EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
60 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48 AT IGNITION...MAX 59.  
MIN HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 69 PERCENT.  
33-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH AT  
IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15  
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 26 MPH.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 21 TO 40 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 23  
TO 42 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (47) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (380).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 200-1200 FT  
AGL.  
HAINES INDEX........2...OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.24 INCHES.  
 
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM  
SKY (%).........94 92 91 89 88 86 87 87 88 89 89  
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TEMP............46 48 50 53 56 59 58 57 56 54 52  
RH..............95 90 87 81 75 69 74 78 82 88 94  
33 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
33 FT WIND SPD..15 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 14 14 14  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 11 11  
WIND GUST.......22 22 24 24 24 26 26 26 21 21 21  
VINDX KT-FT/100.47 45 68 175 301 380 317 182 75 69 89  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S SE SE S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.28 30 31 33 35 36 37 36 35 31 28  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH LATE  
EVENING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY BY LATE  
EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY  
MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1 UNTIL 2300, THEN 2 UNTIL 0500, THEN 1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 49.  
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 100 PERCENT.  
33-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDNIGHT.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 16 TO 33 MPH INCREASING TO 36 TO 54 MPH.  
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (45).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-500 FT AGL.  
HAINES INDEX........2...OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.38 INCHES.  
 
TIME (EDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM  
SKY (%).........90 91 92 93 94 95 96 95 94 93 92 91  
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TEMP............50 51 51 52 52 53 53 52 52 51 50 49  
RH..............100 97 93 89 87 85 83 85 86 88 90 91  
33 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
33 FT WIND SPD..12 12 12 15 15 15 16 16 16 14 14 14  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 10 12 12 12 13 13 13 11 11 11  
WIND GUST.......15 15 15 17 17 17  
VINDX KT-FT/100.100 79 58 45 56 81 106 115 110 100 80 72  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.24 22 21 21 23 28 32 38 43 46 46 45  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2  
LAL.............1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY  
AFTERNOON, THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE  
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS 70 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 58.  
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 72 PERCENT.  
33-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHWEST 8 TO 13 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 11 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 31 TO 53 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 13 TO 20  
MPH.  
VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (445).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-2600 FT AGL  
EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
HAINES INDEX........2...OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.29 INCHES.  
 
TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM  
SKY (%).........90 89 90 92 87 87  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TEMP............49 57 58 56 52 45  
RH..............93 75 72 76 84 91  
33 FT WIND......SE 14 SE 14 SE 14 S 13 S 13 SW 13  
20 FT WIND......SE 11 SE 11 SE 11 S 10 S 10 SW 10  
WIND GUST.......16 16 16 16 16 16  
VINDX KT-FT/100.95 287 390 367 324 341  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 44 S 45 S 41 S 32 SW 17 SW 15  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 700 1100 1300 2200 2600  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2  
 

 
FORECASTER...JLA  
REQUESTED BY...PATTY CARRICK  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1707674.2/MQT  
 
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