731  
FNUS73 KMQT 150845  
FWSMQT  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BRIMLEY EAST...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI  
445 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON JUNE 15.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
.DISCUSSION: THE BURN SITE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE  
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRY TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA;  
HOWEVER, THESE ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE  
BURN SITE. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE STORMS WILL BE  
POTENTIALLY ERRATIC WINDS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.  
OTHERWISE, PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT  
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITY. ANY  
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE SEVERE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND  
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52 AT IGNITION...MAX 74.  
MIN HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 37 PERCENT.  
33-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 7 MPH AT  
IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10  
MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 8 TO 13 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 4 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTH 6 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 20 MPH IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (8) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (356).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 300-1600 FT  
AGL INCREASING TO 1700-3200 FT AGL IN THE  
AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING TO 900 FT AGL EARLY  
IN THE EVENING.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5...OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.01 INCHES.  
 
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM  
SKY (%).........22 26 30 34 37 41 44 46 48 50 58 67  
WEATHER COV..... ISO SCT  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW  
TEMP............52 57 63 68 71 73 73 74 74 74 72 69  
RH..............88 73 60 51 46 42 41 38 37 41 45 51  
33 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S SE SE SE  
33 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 11 11 11 13 13 13 12 12 12  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10  
WIND GUST.......7 7 7 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13  
VINDX KT-FT/100.8 23 64 113 182 288 356 355 352 291 253 149  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.3 5 7 8 9 12 13 13 14 14 17 20  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.3 2.9 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.4 1.7 0.9  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE EVENING.  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS  
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60  
PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 55.  
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 100 PERCENT.  
33-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 4 TO 8 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 22 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 18  
TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT, THEN DECREASING TO 6  
TO 14 MPH LATE.  
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (9).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-300 FT AGL.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.46 INCHES.  
 
TIME (EDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM  
SKY (%).........76 77 79 80 84 87 91 90 89 89 88 88  
WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT NUM SCT SCT  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TEMP............67 64 61 58 57 56 56 55 55 55 55 56  
RH..............58 64 72 80 86 91 94 97 99 100 100 100  
33 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
33 FT WIND SPD..11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8  
WIND GUST.......10 10 10  
VINDX KT-FT/100.45 12 17 28 35 48 55 50 40 30 16 9  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S SW SW SW S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.21 18 15 13 16 22 25 23 18 14 9 6  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2  
HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CHANCE  
OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 78.  
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 66 PERCENT.  
33-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY  
AFTERNOON.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 4 TO 8 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 2 TO 9 MPH.  
VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (145).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1800 FT AGL.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.04 INCHES.  
 
TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM  
SKY (%).........87 81 77 72 65 63  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE  
TEMP............57 65 70 74 78 77  
RH..............100 89 80 71 66 68  
33 FT WIND......SE 10 SE 10 S 10 S 10 S 10 S 11  
20 FT WIND......SE 8 SE 8 S 8 S 8 S 8 S 9  
WIND GUST.......  
VINDX KT-FT/100.10 17 70 137 145 107  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 5 SW 2 SW 6 S 9 SW 9 SW 8  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 800 1400 1700 1800 1500  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 3 4 4  
 

 
FORECASTER...KEC  
REQUESTED BY...PATTY CARRICK  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1811496.0/MQT  
 
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