892
FXUS63 KAPX 071740
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1240 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
SYNOPSIS
/ISSUED AT 320 AM/
A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING OVERCAST SKIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
M-72. BY THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME SUNNY ACROSS THE
REGION. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PROVIDING A PLEASANT END TO THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...PRODUCING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE ON MONDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...PROVIDING ANOTHER PERIOD OF TRANQUIL
WEATHER.
SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1135 AM/
THIS AFTERNOON
12Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT RUNNING
ESSENTIALLY NORTH-SOUTH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN ALONG THE WESTERN
LOWER SHORELINE...WITH A COLD FRONT ON ITS HEELS ACROSS FAR WESTERN
UPPER/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN/CENTRAL IOWA. LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOT
MATERIALIZED TO THE EXTENT EARLIER ANTICIPATED...SKIES ARE OVERCAST
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT...SOME CLOUDS
TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER. 12Z APX SOUNDING SHOWED A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WITHIN A STRONG INVERSION BELOW 900MB...
WITH WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THIS LAYER RESPONSIBLE FOR CLOUD COVER
TRYING TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD BIT
OF TRANSVERSE BANDING WITHIN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE STABLE/
STRONGLY SHEARED LAYER...AS EVIDENCED BY PIREPS OF LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE. OTHERWISE A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR IN PLACE ALOFT AND
UPSTREAM...WITH LITTLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
(WHICH ITSELF IS BEING PUSHED EASTWARD BY 4MB/3H PRESSURE RISE
CENTER IN ITS WAKE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA).
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WE SHOULD
END THE DAY WITH A RETURN OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
NICELY THIS MORNING THANKS TO THE MILD START...WIDESPREAD 50S AND
SOME 60+ AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE OFFING.
JPB
LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 320 AM/
TONIGHT AND BEYOND
HIGH PRESSURE/SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MICHIGAN TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
DRY AIR MASS THRU THE ENTIRE COLUMN...RESULTING IN A DRY AND MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY COOL
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
DRY AND MILD WX WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS NE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED BACK INTO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE
50S TO EVEN LOWER 60S.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NW HALF OF
OUR CWA AS THE ELONGATED LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE LIFT INTO UPPER MICHIGAN AND FAR NRN LWR MICHIGAN.
RELATIVELY MILD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...KEEPING ANY PRECIP THAT
DEVELOPS IN THE LIQUID FORM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY COOL INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO QUEBEC...DRAGGING THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THRU NRN MICHIGAN. DRY WX WILL RETURN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR MONDAY WILL
COOL BACK INTO THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT TO AROUND 30 TO 35 FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
/ISSUED AT 320 AM/
EXPECT SCA CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MET ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE
AREAS THRU TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE ENDED ACROSS ERN UPR
MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS...AND HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED GALE WARNINGS
TO EXPIRE ON TIME.
AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1239 PM/
VALID FOR 18Z TAFS
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT PLN AND POSSIBLY APN THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LS...NONE.
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