908  
FXUS63 KAPX 281925  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
325 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016  
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH NE OF MICHIGAN THRU ONTARIO THIS  
AFTERNOON...WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NE OUT OF THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. PLENTY OF LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS  
APPROACHING LOW...WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS OUR  
ENTIRE CWA. HOWEVER...DYNAMICS VIA THE LOW REMAIN WELL WEST OF  
MICHIGAN ATTM. MUCAPES HAVE RISEN TO NEAR 1500 J/KG ACROSS OUR CWA  
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER INSTABILITY AND 850 MB THETA E RIDGING  
ALSO REMAINS WEST OF MICHIGAN IN THE VCNTY OF BETTER DYNAMICS AROUND  
AND AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER. THE RESULT SO FAR HAS BEEN MAINLY  
SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGHOUT THE  
DAY...WITH BRIEF INCREASES IN REFLECTIVITIES/POSSIBLY THUNDER WITHIN  
THESE SHOWERS. BOTH NAM AND RAP TARGETED THE STRAITS AND ERN UPR  
MICHIGAN FOR BEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS TO BE WORKING  
OUT SO FAR.  
 
LITTLE WILL CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BETTER  
DYNAMICS...INSTABILITY AND 850 MB THETA E REMAINING WEST OF  
MICHIGAN. DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE OF THE  
SCATTERED AND SUB-SEVERE VARIETY...AND WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL  
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING DURING TIME OF MAX DIURNAL LOW LEVEL  
COOLING AND PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW AND THUS BETTER LIFT.  
 
SURFACE LOW SLIDES NORTH OF MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING INTO MICHIGAN.  
INSTABILITY AXIS AND 850 MB THETA E RIDGE AXIS BOTH DEVELOP ACROSS  
LWR MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MUCAPES RISING TO AROUND  
2500 J/KG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NE LWR MICHIGAN AND JUST ABOVE  
3500 J/KG ACROSS SE LWR MICHIGAN. MAINLY SPEED SHEAR DEVELOPS THRU  
THE COLUMN BY THIS TIME...WITH WIND DIRECTION NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL  
FROM SW IN THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING.  
CERTAINLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MARGINAL RISK PER SPC'S DAY 1  
OUTLOOK. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. FOR NOW...WILL  
EXPAND LIKELY POPS TO MUCH OF OUR CWA THRU THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY  
EVENING...AND WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THIS UPCOMING EVENT  
UNFOLDS.  
 
EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY LATE MAY NIGHT ACROSS THE  
NORTHWOODS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN ERN  
UPR MICHIGAN TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN (COOLER  
NEAR THE LAKESHORES). SUNDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID DESPITE  
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL  
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE MID 70S TO  
LOWER 80S ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN (COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORES...OF  
COURSE).  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY....OVERALL A MILD SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER  
PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH  
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL CHANCES FOR RAIN.  
 
AT UPPER LEVELS...THE STRONG 500MB RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT  
LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND, WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO  
PUSH EAST...WHILE A 500MB TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY  
NIGHT. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN SETTLE INTO PLACE OVER THE GREAT  
LAKES TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. 850MB TEMPS IN THIS PATTERN  
WILL FALL TO AROUND 10C MONDAY IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH  
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO AROUND 14C TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP  
CONTINUE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN  
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S TO  
LOW 80S. NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S  
OVER EAST UPPER MI TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR HOUGHTON LAKE.  
 
AT THE SURFACE...THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH HAD  
SLOWLY BEEN LIFTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND, WILL  
LIFT NORTH TO JAMES BAY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A  
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH OVER THE NRN GREAT  
LAKES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z MONDAY. 850/700MB AND 500/300MB QVECTORS  
SHOWING THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE WITH THE APPROACHING BOUNDARIES  
EXITING NRN MI BY 06Z MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN  
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING (TIL 03Z) ACRS THE CWA...AS 850MB DEW POINTS  
LINGER AROUND 12C, 0-3KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES LINGER AROUND  
2K J/KG WITH 850-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM. MUCH DRIER AND  
MORE STABLE AIR WILL QUICKLY WORK INTO THE REGION BTWN 06Z AND 12Z  
MONDAY, AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT  
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.  
 
PLEASANT CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY  
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S, AND MUCH MORE SEASONAL DEW PT  
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S (COMPARED TO UPPER 60  
DEW PTS DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEKEND). THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL  
QUICKLY BECOME EVIDENT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, AS A STORM  
SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT  
THE MOMENT, WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF PCPN OUT OF THE FORECAST  
THROUGH 00Z WED, AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS  
(850MB DEW PTS UNDER 0C WITH SFC DEW PTS ARND 50F) LINGERING OVER  
NRN MI INTO TUESDAY EVENING.  
 
SWR  
 
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PASS TO OUR  
NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA  
IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO  
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THINGS CLEARING UP FOR THE WEEKEND AFTER THE  
COLD FRONT PASSES. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HELP TO KNOCK HIGH  
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
MAYHEW  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016  
 
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU TONIGHT DESPITE SMALL  
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.  
CIGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO MVFR ON SUNDAY AS BETTER LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING  
MICHIGAN. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER  
18Z ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THRU OUR STATE. WINDS WILL  
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS  
EXPECTED THRU SUNSET.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016  
 
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO REACH SCA CRITERIA THRU THIS  
EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF NRN LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON...WITH  
CONDITIONS WEAKENING OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES  
WILL LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A COLD  
FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE REGION. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL  
CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND WILL INCREASE FOR  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THAT COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO  
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ348-349.  
 
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ344>346.  
 
LS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MLR  
LONG TERM...MAYHEW/SWR  
AVIATION...MLR  
MARINE...MLR  
 
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