856  
FXUS63 KAPX 012045  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
345 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015  
   
NEAR TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 339 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015  
   
..SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT
 
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 18Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SEVERAL TROUGHS IN  
THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES...ONE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO  
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...A SECOND FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SOUTHWARD  
ACROSS IOWA/NORTHEAST KANSAS. VORTICITY CENTER TRACKING EAST ALONG  
THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER...AHEAD OF MORE GENERAL SHORT WAVE  
TROUGHING OVER MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE WAS  
SPREADING CLOUDS ACROSS WISCONSIN (OF THE MID/HIGH LEVEL VARIETY)  
WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LIGHT SNOW SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN  
WISCONSIN/WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WERE  
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OFF LAKE  
MICHIGAN...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER  
MICHIGAN.  
 
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES  
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH THE WISCONSIN SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL PULL  
LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.  
 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND  
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN SPOTS.  
 
TONIGHT...FOCUSING ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES  
THIS EVENING FOR SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL... THINKING THAT UPSTREAM  
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SERVE TO PULL INVERSION HEIGHTS UPWARD AND  
PERHAPS SEED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ICE CRYSTALS THOUGH INDICATIONS  
ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL DRY WEDGE LIKELY PRECLUDING SHORT  
WAVE ENERGY FROM PRODUCING MUCH PRECIPITATION DIRECTLY. VISIBLE  
IMAGERY SHOWS LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS SPREADING INTO EASTERN  
WISCONSIN...AND SUSPECT THAT MOISTURE WILL BE ENHANCED BY ITS  
CROSSING OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SO DO LIKE THE IDEA OF INCREASING RADAR  
RETURNS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...PROBABLY WITH SOME  
ENHANCEMENT INTO INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. SNOW  
SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH SUSPECT  
THINGS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN  
LOWER. IF THE PRECIPITATION UNFOLDS AS ANTICIPATED...A QUICK INCH  
OR TWO OF SNOW A POSSIBILITY ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER TONIGHT.  
 
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 339 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015  
   
..ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY
 
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH SOME TRAVEL  
IMPACTS EXPECTED TUESDAY.  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: WELL DEVELOPED SPLIT FLOW  
REGIME FOUND ACROSS NAMERICA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ENERGETIC SOUTHERN  
BRANCH ROTATING AROUND CALIFORNIA CENTERED STRONG SHORTWAVE...ALL-  
THE-WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE SEEN ROTATING AROUND NORTHERN  
HUDSON BAY CENTERED COLD CORE GYRE. CURRENT BUNDLE OF ENERGY  
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND ENERGY SHEARING  
OUT OF THE CALIFORNIA SHORTWAVE LOOK TO COMBINE AND DRUM UP A DECENT  
LITTLE SNOW EVENT AS WE HEAD THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT  
MORE OF THE SAME...WITH OVERHEAD TROUGHING MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EVIDENCE IS GROWING FOR A  
MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS  
ALLOWING A MUCH MORE MILD PACIFIC ORIGINATED AIRMASS TO EVENTUALLY  
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS. TIME WILL TELL...OF COURSE.  
 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: PRIMARY FOCUS CENTERED ON  
TUESDAYS SNOW EVENT (AMOUNTS AND TIMING). TEMPERATURE TRENDS  
ADDRESSED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
DETAILS: A RATHER QUIET START TO THE WORK WEEK...WITH A FEW MORNING  
FLURRIES GIVING WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MONDAY AS MID LEVEL  
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN RIGHT INTO  
MONDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE  
IN INITIAL STAGES OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION.  
 
MOST ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER BEGINS LATER MONDAY NIGHT...AND  
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SHEARING  
OUT SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHWESTERN TROUGHING RACES NORTHEAST...ALL-THE-  
WHILE MUCH STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN  
HIGH PLAINS. STRONG NORTHWARD BOWING 160+ KNOT UPPER JET STREAK  
SHOULD HELP WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING...EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE  
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LACK OF A TRUE STREAM MERGER AND  
FAST MOVING WEAKENING SOUTHERN DYNAMICS LOOK TO KEEP THIS MORE OF AN  
OPEN WAVE AS IT RACES OVERHEAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LACK OF ANY CLOSED  
OFF THE DECK SIGNATURE SHOULD PREVENT ANY DECENT TROWAL/DEFORMATION  
DYNAMICS TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL. WITH THAT SAID...WAA PROGS CONTINUE TO  
LOOK RATHER INTENSE WITH A NEARLY 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET  
PERPENDICULAR TO THE PRESSURE FIELDS. RESPECTABLE GULF MOISTURE TAP  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE...WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING UP TO AROUND  
HALF AN INCH. CURRENT GUIDANCE TRENDS SUPPORT SOME FLEETING FGEN  
RESPONSE...WITH ANY HINTS OF INSTABILITY REMAINING WELL ELEVATED UP  
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. WARMING THERMAL REGIME SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER  
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS...ALTHOUGH HINTS OF MAX OMEGA AT TIMES COUPLED  
WITH FAVORED DGZ MAY OFFSET THIS SOME. SYSTEM IS A QUICK  
MOVER...WITH BETTER FORCING PEELING OFF RAPIDLY LATER TUESDAY.  
UPSHOT TO THE ABOVE...LOOKING LIKE A 2-4/3-5 INCH TYPE SNOW  
EVENT...WHICH MAY FALL RATHER HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH  
EARLY AFTERNOON. DEFINITELY NOT WATCH MATERIAL...BUT A NEED FOR AN  
ADVISORY IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO  
HIGHLIGHT THIS IMPACTFUL SNOW EVENT IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER  
PRODUCTS.  
 
JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY  
NIGHT...WITH STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ATTENDANT SHOT OF  
VERY COLD AIR PERHAPS INCREASING THE SNOW SHOWER THREAT WEDNESDAY.  
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT...HOWEVER...WITH ALL MOISTURE TIED TO  
TUESDAY SYSTEM AND ANY LAKE RESPONSE LARGELY MUTED DUE TO EXTENSIVE  
ICE COVER.  
 
AS FOR TEMPERATURES: DOWNRIGHT BALMY BY RECENT STANDARDS ON  
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S...AND EVEN SOME  
READINGS UP NEAR 30 SOUTH OF TRAVERSE CITY. UNFORTUNATELY...REALITY  
SETS IN WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING OUR NEXT  
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO REMAIN STEADY  
OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 339 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015  
 
ARCTIC FRONT SWINGS THRU MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING 850 MB  
TEMPS BACK BELOW -20 C IN ITS WAKE. STILL APPEARS THIS SHOT OF VERY  
COLD AIR WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN  
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT SLIDES SE OF MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY NIGHT...  
WITH RETURN SW FLOW QUICKLY SETTING UP FOR THE LAST PART OF THE  
WEEK. ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARCTIC FRONT...THUS  
YIELDING LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN  
AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES FOR NW LWR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY BUT QUITE COLD AS STRONG  
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF OUR STATE. A WARM FRONT LIFTING THRU  
THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES  
OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA...RIGHT THRU  
THE WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE LONG  
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE  
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS THANKS TO ONGOING STRONG CAA. THURSDAY AND  
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE QUITE COLD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE  
TEENS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF  
ZERO. FRIDAY WILL BEGIN OUR TEMP REBOUND IN RESPONSE TO THE  
COMMENCEMENT OF WAA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ON FRIDAY WILL  
IMPROVE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT  
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE TEENS  
(ABOVE ZERO).  
 

 
 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  
LH...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  
LS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...JPB  
SHORT TERM...MSB  
LONG TERM...MLR  
 
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