896  
FXUS63 KAPX 011930  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
330 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015  
   
NEAR TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015  
 
WARM AND VERY HUMID OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS SPIKED  
INTO THE LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCALES AT MIDDAY...BUT HAVE MIXING OUT  
A TOUCH HERE AT MID-AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S...SOME 70S IN  
MACKINAC AND SE CHIPPEWA COS. CU FIELD IS UNIMPRESSIVE ACROSS  
NORTHERN LOWER/EASTERN UPPER MI. MORE VIGOROUS CU IS SEEN IN  
EASTERN WI AND THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN  
THE LOW AND EVEN MID 70S IN SPOTS. HOWEVER...SHRA/TSRA ARE NOT YET  
EVIDENT...OUTSIDE OF SOME WEAKENING SHRA NEAR THE KEWEENAW. THESE  
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY  
CROSSING WESTERN/CENTRAL SUPERIOR.  
 
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA TO INCREASE IN THE VICINITY  
OF S CENTRAL SUPERIOR BY EARLY EVENING...AS THE INCOMING BOUNDARY  
INTERCEPTS THE INSTABILITY PLUME (MLCAPES TO 2K J/KG) POKING INTO  
CENTRAL UPPER MI. HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS ARE OF MIXED OPINIONS  
AS TO WHETHER/HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT. NAM/NSSL-WRF FAVOR BRINGING  
CONVECTION INTO EASTERN UPPER MI THIS EVENING. BUT MOST OF THESE  
ARE ALREADY BUBBLING OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW...WHICH IS NOT  
HAPPENING. SPC HRRR OFFERS PERHAPS THE MOST REALISTIC SOLUTION...  
GENERATING CONVECTION NORTH OF MQT AS THE UNSTABLE PLUME LIFTS  
OVER THE SUPERIOR COLD DOME...THEN LARGELY KEEPING IT OVER THE BIG  
LAKE AS IT MOVES EAST. WAS GIVING SERIOUS THOUGHT EARLIER TO  
BOOSTING POPS...BUT LOOKING AT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL PROGS  
HAVE DECIDED THAT CAN/T FAVOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A 20 POP. WILL  
MAINTAIN THAT SLIGHT CHANCE IN WESTERN/CENTRAL CHIP/MACK COUNTIES  
THRU THIS EVENING.  
 
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG. PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS  
MUCH AS THIS MORNING (WHICH WAS LESS THAN THE MORNING  
BEFORE)...THANKS TO STRONG MIXING AND RESULTING DECREASE IN DEW  
POINTS THIS AFTERNOON. STILL AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/STICKY  
NIGHT...WITH MINS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH  
HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN ONE THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...WILL  
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT  
UPPER LVLS...A STRONG 500MB RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GULF STATES AND  
OHIO VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH  
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID LVL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LVL  
PATTERN WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE  
UPCOMING WEEKEND...REMAINING AROUND 16C/17C. THIS OVERALL SFC AND  
UPPER LVL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER...WITH WELL  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACRS NRN MI THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  
 
WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST A PARTLY SUNNY TREND ACROSS THE REGION AS  
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOW LIMITED MSTR THROUGH THE  
COLUMN...WITH 850/500MB RH AROUND 40/60 PCT THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.  
HOWEVER ENOUGH LOW LVL MSTR WILL BE PRESENT TO CONTINUE MUGGY CONDS  
ACRS NRN MI...WITH SFC DEW PTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHILE MID  
LVL DEW PTS REMAIN 12C OR GREATER. WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY DRY  
CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN MI THOUGH A CHANCE OF PCPN EXIST WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY...THE RESULT OF A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER  
FLOW. 850/500MB QVECTORS SHOW SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH CONVERGENCE WITH  
APPROACHING 500MB TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO GENERATE PCPN  
ACRS NRN MI. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING ENOUGH LOW AND MID LVL MSTR  
(SFC DW PTS IN THE UPPER 60S) AND INSTABILITY (LI ARND -4C, MU CAPE  
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG, 850/500MB LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO 7  
C/KM) TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN THE  
FORECAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015  
 
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY GOING INTO LABOR DAY...WITH  
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD  
FRONT ARRIVING EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL FLATTEN OUT THE H5 RIDGING AND  
RETURN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO...THOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE...NORMAL  
BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR  
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT AS MENTIONED  
BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE COULD  
HOLD THOSE OFF. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT...WHICH IS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE  
AS FAR AS TIMING AND PLACEMENT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015  
 
IFR FOG RETURNS LATE TONIGHT.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SE US CONTINUES TO PUSH WARM/MUGGY/HAZY AIR  
INTO NORTHERN MI ON SW WINDS. VISIBILITIES WILL DECREASE SHORTLY  
AFTER SUNSET. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR VSBYS WILL DEVELOP...WITH  
PLN THE MOST LIKELY SITE TO GO LIFR. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY  
IMPROVE BY MID/LATE MORNING.  
 
MAINLY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.  
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015  
 
SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE. WINDS  
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE NORTH END OF LAKE MI A LITTLE  
BUMPY...IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE...BUT SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.  
AREAS OF MARINE FOG/STRATUS WILL ALSO CONTINUE...THANKS TO THE  
HUMID AIR IN PLACE.  
 

 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  
LH...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  
LS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...JAZ  
SHORT TERM...SWR  
LONG TERM...ALM  
AVIATION...JAZ  
MARINE...JAZ  
 
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