862
FXUS63 KAPX 030200
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1000 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
SYNOPSIS
/ISSUED AT 327 PM/
THE BLOCKED VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW OVR QUEBEC WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPS (15 DEG BELOW NORMAL) THRU FRI. BUT GRADUALLY IMPROVING
SKIES AND REBOUNDING TEMPS WILL BEGIN SAT...WITH A DRY STRETCH OF
WEATHER THRU AT LEAST WED. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL STILL AVERAGE 10 DEG
BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TEMPORARY
WARM-UP LATE NEXT WEEK.
JH
SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1000 PM/
OVERNIGHT
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
THICK LOW CLOUDS ACROSS ALL OF MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS STILL LINGER ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN...BUT REMAINING SHOWER
ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE FINALLY COMING TO A CLOSE PER KAPX EVENING
RADAR TREND. WILL KEEP ISOLD -SHRA IN THE FORECAST FOR NE LWR
MICHIGAN THRU 06Z...AT WHICH TIME DIMINISHING DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS
TO CLOUD COVER FOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS LATEST NAM MODEL
SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO HOLD ONTO SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT
LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED.
LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 327 PM/
FRIDAY
LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS
TROFS REDEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. IN BETWEEN...RIDGING AND BUILDING HEAT THROUGH THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. A TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES IN AN ACTIVE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH/EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LIMITED
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH THESE SYSTEMS OVER OUR AREA WILL RESULT IN
A RELATIVELY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER.
FRIDAY WILL START OFF ON THE CLOUDY SIDE BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
PARTLY SUNNY FROM WEST-EAST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRIER H8-H5 AIR
BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING BY TO OUR
NORTH WILL BRING A CORE OF COLDER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR /H8 TEMPS
6-8C/ INTO AT LEAST EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CU
FIELDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER. MET GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO LOW GIVEN AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
/IT IS EARLY JULY!/...SO WILL BLEND WITH WARMER MAV NUMBERS.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES PASS BY TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...
HELPING TO SUPPRESS HEIGHTS AND KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE COOLER SIDE.
OUTSIDE OF DIURNAL CU BOTH SATURDAY/SUNDAY...LITTLE IF ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN UPPER ON
SUNDAY WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO
PUT INTO GRIDS. GOOD VIEWING FOR FIREWORKS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE IN THE UPPER 50S.
I WILL KEEP REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY AS DEEPER LONGWAVE TROF
DEVELOPS TO OUR EAST AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN SITS IN GENERALLY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA
NEXT WEEK...BUT RAIN CHANCES NOT HIGH ENOUGH WITH ANY OF THEM TO
WARRANT MENTIONING IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST. I WILL TREND
TEMPERATURES DOWN /NOT AS LOW AS GUIDANCE NUMBERS/ THRU TUESDAY AS
AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THERMAL TROF. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY
HAVE TO LOWER TEMPS ADDITIONALLY IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING MUCH COOLER AIR FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY. HEAT BUILDING OVER THE
PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A RUN AT THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK /TEMPS INTO THE 80S?/.
JK
MARINE
/ISSUED AT 327 PM/
LOW PRESSURE OVER SE ONTARIO WILL FINALLY HEAD FURTHER EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...GUSTIER NW FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE
FROM THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE
ARGUMENTS. BUT WINDS/WAVES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.
ADAM
AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 711 PM/
VALID FOR 00Z TAFS
BROAD/DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CIGS ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN FROM TONIGHT THRU EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NE LWR
MICHIGAN (APN)...EXPECT PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS THRU THE 24 HR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FINALLY RETURNING TO ALL OF
NRN LWR MICHIGAN BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
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