871  
FXUS63 KAPX 251100  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
600 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015  
   
NEAR TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015  
 
COLD/STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH OF  
MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE LOW PRESSURE CHURNS ITS WAY  
THRU THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MUCH OF MICHIGAN REMAINS UNDER  
THE STRENGTHEN RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR  
NW...WITH DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN GRADUALLY SETTLING INTO NRN  
MICHIGAN. SKIES HAVE CLEARED UNDER THE NRN THIRD OF OUR CWA...BUT  
SOME LOW CLOUDINESS REMAINS FOR MANY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32.  
STRENGTHENING OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WITH ONGOING LOW LEVEL CAA HAS  
BEEN SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR REGARDING THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES. STILL...LATEST IR 3.9U  
SATELLITE LOOP DOES SHOW SOME LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO THIS CLOUD COVER.  
 
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR WILL  
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO MICHIGAN TODAY THRU TONIGHT...SERVING TO  
GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS FOR LOCATIONS AWAY  
FROM LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS OF LOW LEVEL NE FLOW. LOW LAKE CLOUDS WILL  
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NE LWR MICHIGAN THRU THE DAY...BUT LAKE  
CONVECTION SHOULD BE TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW  
SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY MUCH COLDER THAN YESTERDAY  
THANKS TO STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO  
THE TEENS.  
 
STRONG COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. DEVELOPING  
LAND BREEZES WILL PUSH ANY REMAINING SHALLOW LAKE CLOUDINESS BACK  
OVER LAKE HURON...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND VERY COLD  
TEMPS THANK TO THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE  
TRICKY GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO ALMOST ALWAYS YIELDS A WIDE RANGE OF  
TEMPS. MUCH OF OUR CWA WILL PLUMMET INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS  
OVERNIGHT. SHORELINE LOCATIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD...FALLING  
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL IS  
CERTAINLY THERE FOR COLDER LOCALIZED TEMPS...ESPECIALLY FOR INTERIOR  
SECTIONS THAT ARE OPEN AND LOW-LYING. STAY WARM!  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015  
 
A WEAKENING AND MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE  
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH  
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY TO  
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BY  
TUESDAY...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO WASH OUT ACROSS THE REGION AS  
UPSTREAM RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN AND HOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S MONDAY AND THE MILDER MIDDLE  
20S TO NEAR 30 TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS IN THE SINGLE  
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE MIDDLE TEENS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015  
 
CONTINUED RIDGING WEDNESDAY IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH  
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER  
AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO GET KNOCKED DOWN FROM AN INCOMING TROUGH FROM  
THE WEST. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IN COMBINATION WITH A BIT OF PACIFIC  
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING SOME SNOW TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
INTO THURSDAY (WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE MENTION IN THE  
HWO...THOUGH AM NOT EXPECTED ANYTHING TOO OUTLANDISH). A DEEPER  
TROUGH THEN DIGS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND LIKELY  
BRINGING FRIGID AIR ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN  
THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN THE  
MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE  
TEENS TO LOWER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO  
THE TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND  
BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 600 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015  
 
RESIDUAL MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTERED OUT TODAY AS STRONG HIGH  
PRESSURE AND INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR GRADUALLY BUILD INTO NORTHERN  
MICHIGAN. CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE HIGH CENTER SETTLES OVERHEAD.  
 

 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  
LH...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  
LS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...MLR  
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN  
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN  
AVIATION...MLR  
 
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