312  
FXUS63 KAPX 191050  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
650 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHERN LOWER AND  
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.  
 
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS RAMP UP LATE TODAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING CURRENTLY  
ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE  
UPPER MS VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A COUPLE OF WEAK EMBEDDED  
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME PROGGED TO CROSS THE  
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE CENTERED  
NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT BY  
TO OUR NORTH TODAY...PROGGED NEAR THE QC/ON BORDER BY 12Z  
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY.  
 
ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS MORNING: PRETTY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ONGOING  
EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN U.P. AND FAR  
NORTHERN LOWER. THESE AREAS ARE STILL WHERE THE PRIMARY  
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MIDDAY WITH 1-3" NEAR AND  
NORTH OF M-32. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE  
QUESTION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT AREAS DOWNWIND OF LITTLE  
TRAVERSE BAY AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MACKINAC/CHIPPEWA COUNTIES,  
INCLUDING DRUMMOND ISLAND. LOW PROBABILITIES IN THOSE AREAS TO WRING  
OUT 3.5-4". NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTINESS WITH THE PRIMARY  
IMPACTS THROUGH MIDDAY BEING SNOW-COVERED/SLICK ROADS, INCLUDING  
DURING THIS MORNING'S COMMUTE.  
 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW/GUSTY WINDS RAMP UP LATE TODAY: WINDS VEER WEST-  
NORTHWESTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. COLD  
ADVECTION TO FOLLOW WITH A TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS  
TRANSITION OCCURS FIRST IN THE EASTERN U.P. GIVEN AN INITIAL COLDER  
AIRMASS AND LONGER LK SUPERIOR FETCH. THAT TRANSITION DOESN'T REALLY  
MATERIALIZE MUCH SOUTH OF BRIDGE UNTIL THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING  
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 00Z. INCREASING GUSTINESS THROUGH  
THIS TIME FRAME, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH  
BECOMING COMMON AFTER 06Z. HIGHEST ADDITIONAL ACCUMS THIS EVENING  
THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN THE EASTERN U.P.  
OF 1-4" WITH SOME LOCALIZED 1-2" AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE IN  
THE TYPICAL WNW/NW FLOW SNOW BELTS FROM EASTERN GRAND TRAVERSE  
COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO OTSEGO COUNTY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
 
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:  
 
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX/CLIPPER WILL BE IMPINGING ON THE REGION  
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD, SOMEWHAT MOIST, LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SETTLES  
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SUB 1000MB CYCLONE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST  
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS QUEBEC, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND  
INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE MAIN CONCERN  
THROUGH THIS PERIOD IN ADDITION TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINING  
FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS NW SNOW BELTS.  
 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  
 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY ONGOING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING (ESP E UP) AS  
QUICK MOVING CLIPPER/VORT MAX DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS N MI AND COLD  
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES OOZE OVER THE "WARM" GREAT LAKES. PROGGED  
SOUNDINGS WEDNESDAY SHOW MODEST/DECENT INVERSION HEIGHTS (750-850MB  
DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND TIMING) AND MOISTURE DEPTH, ALTHOUGH LOWER  
PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT DRIER AT TIMES  
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER, ESP WED AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CAVEAT, AS THE  
TROUGH (BOTH ALOFT/LOWER LEVELS) PROPAGATE EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD INTO  
ONTARIO/QUEBEC, LAKE EFFECT BANDING WILL LIKELY SHIFT AND PROPAGATE  
SOUTHWARD AS WELL. THUS, ALTHOUGH THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST  
AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PERIODS OF SNOWFALL, RESONANCE TIME  
OF SAID BANDS MIGHT NOT BE LONG ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY ACCUMULATE.  
WHERE BANDS DO REMAIN PERSISTENT, HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST  
FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST SNOW BELTS, ESPECIALLY  
CHIPPEWA COUNTY (WHITEFISH BAY AND VICINITY LIKELY BEST CHANCE FOR  
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL), AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ANTRIM, OTSEGO,  
KALKASKA, AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES. IN FACT, NBM&HREF 90TH PERCENTILES  
SHOW ~3-5" IN THIS GENERAL AREA, LITTLE BIT BETTER POTENTIAL IN  
CHIPPEWA. SUPPLEMENT THIS WITH SEVERAL OTHER DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE  
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE ACCUMULATION/SEVERAL INCHES OF  
SNOW AND THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ON  
WEDNESDAY (TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY REALLY). HIGHEST ACCUMS,  
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE AMOUNTS, WILL BE CHIPPEWA COUNTY, AND  
GENERALLY A LITTLE LESS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. PRESSURE GRADIENT  
WILL TIGHTEN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW  
MOVE EAST, THUS WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE AS  
WELL ON WEDNESDAY (WITH TEMPS IN THE 20S...BRRR). CONCERN WILL BE  
HEAVY FALLING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH THESE WINDS RESULTING IN  
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. LIGHTER  
LAKE EFFECT WILL LINGER INTO EARLY/MIDDAY THURSDAY AS COLD  
TEMPERATURES REMAIN.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:  
 
ANOTHER SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL  
SWING INTO PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST WITHIN A WARM,  
MOIST ADVECTION REGIME (AT LEAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY). AS A  
RESULT, PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION, FOCUSING SOUTH OF  
M-32. STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES WITHIN MODEL GUIDANCE. GFS REMAINS  
QUITE ROBUST SUGGESTING A MODERATE TO HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT. CANNOT  
DENY THE TREND IN ENSEMBLES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH INCREASED  
SNOW TOTAL MEANS/PERCENTILES. QUICK LOOK AT LATEST NBM SUGGESTS THIS  
IS AN EVENT WORTH WATCHING, THE EXACT PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL  
PATTERN AND SUBSEQUENT PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE  
CRUCIAL. WILL BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A LIGHT AND MODERATE/HEAVY  
SNOW EVENT, FOR SOME AREAS. ALL THIS BEING SAID, THE BEST CHANCE FOR  
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE SOUTH OF M-32 AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING  
AT. ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LIKELY TO REMAIN LATER SUNDAY THROUGH  
THE EARLY-MID PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
 
 
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING PRETTY QUICKLY DIMINISHES WITH  
CIGS LARGELY IMPROVING TO VFR (MVFR LONGEST AT CIU). RENEWED LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW CHANCES RETURN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT CIU AND  
EVENTUALLY AT NORTHWEST LOWER TERMINALS TONIGHT. ONGOING BREEZY  
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING VEER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SOME SPORADIC LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS/WAVES ANTICIPATED  
ON NORTHERN MI'S NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY WITH MORE SOLID ADVISORY  
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO RAMP UP TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VERY  
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALSO FEATURES LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SOME  
LOW END SPORADIC GALE GUSTS, PRIMARILY ON FAR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN  
AND HURON.  
 

 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT  
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ086.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT  
WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>348.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ349.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-  
342-344>346.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT  
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...MJG  
SHORT TERM...JLD  
LONG TERM...JLD  
AVIATION...MJG  
MARINE...MJG  
 
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