684  
FXUS63 KAPX 130912  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
412 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016  
   
NEAR TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016  
 
IMPACT WEATHER: BRUTAL COLD. STILL SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH POOR  
VISIBILITY.  
 
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:  
 
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWING UPPER TROUGHING ENGULFING THE EASTERN  
CONUS...WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW ALOFT AT 492DM POSITIONED JUST SE OF  
JAMES BAY. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS IN FAR SRN QUEBEC WITH A  
STRONG COLD FRONT NOW DRAPED WELL SOUTH OF US THROUGH ALL OF THE  
GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN THE NRN PLAINS WITH  
GUSTY NW FLOW USHERING IN ARCTIC AIR. H8 TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD WERE  
IN THE -26C TO -27C...WITH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR UNDERNEATH  
THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT..OF A BRUTALLY COLD -38C. OBVIOUSLY...NW WINDS  
WERE RESULTING IN CONTINUED BANDING OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...COMPRISED  
OF SMALL FLAKES AND POOR VISIBILITY IN THE BANDS. THE STRONGEST BAND  
OF SNOW WAS CROSSING GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND INTO WESTERN ANTRIM AND  
CENTRAL KALKASKA COUNTIES. UNDENIABLY...CONDITIONS WERE HORRID  
AS THIS BAND WAS BEING AIDED IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM LAKE  
INDUCED TROUGHING THERE...FOCUSED BY DRAINAGE FLOW COMING DOWN FROM  
ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES THERE WERE PHENOMENALLY COLD...WITH READINGS  
COLDER THAN 30 BELOW. SOME OF THIS COLDER AIR WAS BLEEDING INTO  
EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NRN/NE LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE  
DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO...WHILE WINDS WERE STILL BLOWING 10 TO  
20 MPH. RESULTANT WIND CHILLS THERE WERE 20-30 BELOW ZERO. UNDER THE  
SFC HIGH TO OUR WEST WHERE WINDS WERE LIGHT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN  
THE SAME BALL PARK.  
 
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND WEATHER EVOLUTION:  
 
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE CLOSED LOW AND  
CORE OF COLDEST AIR AT H8 PUSHING EAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY  
SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION  
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. NW  
WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING.  
WARMING ALOFT WITH CRASHING INVERSION HEIGHTS FROM CURRENT 750MB  
LEVELS TO 880MB TONIGHT...COUPLED WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT TO  
CALM...WILL RESULT IN SNOWS TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES. SNOWS IN NW  
FLOW REGIMES WILL LIKELY EVEN END IN ALL AREAS AS WINDS GO NEAR  
CALM...PUSHING SNOWS OFFSHORE AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN AROUND 06Z.  
 
UNTIL THEN...WHILE WE HAVE DECENT SNOW SHOWERS...AND ESPECIALLY THAT  
DOMINANT BAND...VISIBILITIES WILL BE POOR UNDER THE SNOWFALL.  
CURRENT ADVISORIES THAT GO THROUGH MIDDAY ALL LOOK FINE EXCEPT FOR  
CHARLEVOIX COUNTY WHERE THE SNOWS HAVE EXITED SOUTH OF THERE. EVEN  
THOUGH THE SNOWS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY...THEY WILL BE WEAKER. DID  
ADD CHARLEVOIX COUNTY..AS WELL AS SEVERAL OTHERS ACROSS NE  
LOWER...TO THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED THERE AND  
TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED WHILE NE WINDS 5-15MPH BROUGHT WIND  
CHILLS INTO THE LOWER END ADVISORY REALM.  
 
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GONNA CRATER WELL PAST MOS GUIDANCE. AM  
EXPECTING WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS...AND WITH  
LAND BREEZES...EVEN THE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL GO SEVERAL DEGREES  
BELOW ZERO.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016  
 
...TEMPERATURES MODERATE WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW LATER  
SUNDAY/MONDAY...  
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: NEGATIVE TILT LONG WAVE TROUGH  
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA THIS SATURDAY  
MORNING...UPPER LOW HAS MADE ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES  
BAY. WESTERN RIDGING IS GETTING PUSHED INLAND BY A SHORT WAVE  
TROUGH COMING IN OFF THE PACIFIC WITH A SUBSEQUENT DOWNWARD TREND IN  
WHAT HAD BEEN A STRONG +PNA TELECONNECTION EARLIER THIS WEEK.  
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY BY MONDAY...AND PHASES A BIT WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING  
OUT OF THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO EFFECTIVELY RE-ALIGN THE MEAN TROUGH  
POSITION OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA IN A DISCONTINUOUS RETROGRESSION  
FASHION. MEAN TROUGH AXIS THEN SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST THROUGH  
MIDWEEK...MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY IN THE  
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME FOLLOWED BY SHORT WAVE RIDGING/RISING HEIGHTS  
THURSDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PACIFIC-ORIGIN SHORT WAVE  
TROUGH PASSAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
1043MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD  
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT/SUNDAY HEADING INTO  
NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS  
ANTICYCLONE KICKS IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE  
PASSAGE OF WHAT MAY BE A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MONDAY.  
 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: SNOW CHANCES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  
 
SUNDAY...LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREDOMINATE TO START THE DAY  
SUNDAY ALONG WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. LAKE CLOUDS SHOULD BE  
CONFINED CLOSER TO THE WATER WITH SOME LAND BREEZE COMPONENTS LIKELY  
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF MICHIGAN. FIGURE THERE SHOULD BE  
SUN INLAND...NEVER KNOW HOW MUCH NUISANCE STRATOCUMULUS MAY STILL BE  
FLOATING AROUND WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS. SAID BACKING FLOW  
SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO EASTERN UPPER AS  
THE DAY PROGRESSES...BOTH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO MACKINAC/FAR  
WESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTIES AND LAKE HURON INTO DRUMMOND ISLAND.  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LOWER  
20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD  
BEGIN TO FEEL THE IMPACTS OF APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORT WAVE  
ENERGY...THOUGH TROUGHING MORE AMPLIFIED/DEFINED AT AND BELOW 700MB.  
MORE WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST STARTING SUNDAY EVENING...AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT  
(GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS)...COULD BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE  
MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY.  
 
MONDAY...SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING AS  
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH...WITH QG SUBSIDENCE  
OVERSPREADING NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER SHORT  
WAVE PASSAGE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THOUGH  
LAKE CONVECTION POTENTIAL LOOKS PRETTY MARGINAL THOUGH SOME  
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW WARM IT WILL BE IN THE CONVECTIVE  
BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL AT LEAST CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHWEST  
FLOW FAVORED AREAS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT...SOME HINTS OF A  
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE  
OPERATIONAL GFS THAT COULD CLIP EASTERN UPPER WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016  
 
FORECAST PATTERN GETS MORE MUDDLED TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH GUIDANCE  
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN  
TROUGH POSITION...AND THE RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. IN  
PARTICULAR IS DOWNSTREAM CYCLONE POTENTIAL AND IF THAT HAS SOME  
BACKLASH EFFECT ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SOME INDICATIONS OF A COLD  
FRONT PASSAGE AROUND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH DOWNSTREAM CYCLONE EVOLUTION  
WILL IMPACT THE TIMING OF THIS. TREND LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD SHOT  
FOR MIDWEEK...THEN A WARMING TREND FOR THURSDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION/  
SHORT WAVE RIDGING...AND POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY STRONG LOW IMPACTING  
THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK.  
 
WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME MINIMAL POPS TUESDAY...AND SOME WEDNESDAY AS  
WELL WITH NEXT LITTLE COLD PUSH WITH COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR  
SOME LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS. MAY ALSO SEE A SURGE OF WARM  
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION FRIDAY...WHICH MAY ALSO HAVE SOME PRECIP TYPE  
ISSUES WITH IT...PERHAPS EVEN SOME FREEZING PRECIP POTENTIAL BUT  
THAT WILL BE FOOD FOR LATER THOUGHT (BUT WORTH A MENTION IN THIS  
MORNING'S RENDITION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK).  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016  
 
NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL NRN  
LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR  
SPILLS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS  
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THESE SNOW SHOWERS AS RELATIVELY SMALL SNOW  
FLAKES AND GUSTY WINDS COMBINE TO VERY EFFECTIVELY AND  
EFFICIENTLY REDUCE VSBYS. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH IN  
INTENSITY ON SATURDAY AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER IN RESPONSE TO  
BUILDING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR PUSHING INTO THE  
REGION.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016  
 
GALES HAVE ENDED WHILE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS  
OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF  
TODAY BEFORE SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT. ADVISORY  
LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER  
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY LAKES MICHIGAN  
AND HURON.  
 

 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ020-021-  
025>027-031>033.  
 
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ008-015>019-  
022>024-028>030-035-036-042.  
 
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
LHZ347>349.  
 
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
LMZ344>346.  
 
LS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...DICKSON  
SHORT TERM...JPB  
LONG TERM...JPB  
AVIATION...MLR  
MARINE...DICKSON  
 
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