165  
FXUS63 KAPX 310751  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
351 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016  
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WAS SPINNING OVER NE ONTARIO EARLY THIS  
MORNING, WITH RIDGING PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS. A SHALLOW MID LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS SRN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED  
COLD FRONT, NOW SOUTH OF US. THERE IS A WEAK SFC LOW REFLECTION ON  
THIS FRONT JUST SOUTH OF MBL, WHICH WAS ABLE TO AID IN SUSTAINING A  
COUPLE OF PATCHES OF SHOWERS, IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK UPPER  
DIVERGENCE AND THE FRONT ITSELF. THIS SETUP BROUGHT SOME PRETTY  
DECENT RAINFALL TO MANISTEE COUNTY A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. OTHERWISE  
WE HAVE BEEN FEELING MUCH LESS HUMID AIR INFILTRATE THE REGION WITH  
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S MOST LOCALES. NORTH OF US ACROSS  
ONTARIO, HAVE BEEN WATCHING A LARGE AREA OF STRATO CU SLOWLY WORKING  
SOUTH TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.  
 
THE MAIN UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL DROP ESE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT  
WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER US SHARPENING WITH TIME. ADDITIONAL  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH INTO NRN MICHIGAN AND DRIVE SOME OF THE  
STRATO CU OUR WAY. PRIOR TO THAT, THE CLOUDS STILL ACROSS THE SRN  
CWA WILL DEPART OVER THE NEXT HANDFUL OF HOURS, WITH CLEARING  
PUSHING IN FROM OUR NRN AREAS. GRADUALLY, THE STRATO CU/LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP INTO A PRETTY GOOD CUMULUS FIELD. MOISTURE IS  
NOT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS HOWEVER. NORTHERLY  
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY AT TIMES, WHILE CONTINUING TO USHER IN  
COOLER/DRIER AIR. A COOLISH SUMMER DAY TO BE EXPECTED.  
 
THIS LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IS LIKELY TO NOT GO AWAY TONIGHT, AS ANY  
DECAY OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STRATO CU MAY WELL EXPAND BACK INTO A  
DECENT LAYER OF CLOUDS TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WHILE  
TEMPERATURES FALL FAR ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE  
(DELTA T'S AS LOW AS 16C). LOWS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S FOR  
MOST.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016  
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK  
AND RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WESTERN U.S. TROUGH AND EASTERN  
U.S. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL  
WAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY  
SKIES FOR SOME DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, MOSTLY FOR THE NORTHERN  
LOWER FORECAST AREA, BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL ERODE BY EVENING AS SAID  
WAVE DEPARTS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. FRIDAY  
MORNING WILL BE THE BEST BET FOR SOME FOG TO FORM WITH CLEAR SKIES  
AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE  
INTERIOR PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS LOWS REACH INTO THE MID  
TO UPPER 40S, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOSER TO 40 AT THE  
NORMAL "COOL" SPOTS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S  
TO LOW 70S THURSDAY AND MODERATE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND  
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS SAID SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE MOVES A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES AND AND A WEAK  
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS,  
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ADDING TO THE HUMIDITY...MAKING IT A  
BIT MUGGY THIS WEEKEND AND LABOR DAY.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY SATURDAY AND  
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY MONDAY. LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE  
MID 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S  
THEREAFTER, AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES.  
 
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE  
MONDAY. SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT A TROPICAL SYSTEM REVERSING OVER  
THE NEW ENGLAND AREA. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES GET CUT-OFF OVER NEW  
ENGLAND IT WILL SLOW THE NORTHERN PLAIN'S SYSTEM AND IT'S  
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER OUR FORECAST AREA EVEN MORE.  
NONETHELESS, AFTER THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST A  
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE  
UNITED STATES...FINALLY BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH GREATER  
AND MORE ABUNDANT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE FORESEEABLE  
FUTURE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1146 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016  
 
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN SOME FOG AT KMBL, AND  
SOME MVFR STCU AT SOME OF THE OTHER SITES. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR  
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY VFR.  
COOLING ALOFT SHOULD BRING A GOOD DEAL OF CU/STCU LATER THIS  
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH CLOUD BASES LOOK TO REMAIN VFR.  
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS LATER IN  
THE EVENING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOME A TOUCH GUSTY OUT OF THE  
NORTHWEST TO NORTH LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016  
   
..CHOPPY WATERS AND GUSTY
 
 
MORE NORTHERLY AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE HEELS OF A  
DEPARTED COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE GUSTY LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES. LAKE  
MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON WILL SEE CONTINUED ADVISORY  
WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED. NO  
RAINFALL OVER THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH CLEAR SKIES INTO THE MORNING,  
BUT INCREASED LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES GET  
COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE.  
 

 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT  
TONIGHT FOR LHZ345>347.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY  
FOR LHZ348-349.  
 
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT  
TONIGHT FOR LMZ341.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY  
FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.  
 
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT  
TONIGHT FOR LSZ322.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY  
FOR LSZ321.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DICKSON  
LONG TERM...TJL  
AVIATION...MSB  
MARINE...DICKSON  
 
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