427
FXUS63 KAPX 210215
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
915 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
SYNOPSIS
/ISSUED AT 329 PM/
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PIVOT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LAKES OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN THE
REEMERGENCE OF PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. LOOKING FARTHER
AHEAD...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE...THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY COULD BE
RATHER INCLEMENT AND COOL...WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 40 DEGREE MARK.
MSB
SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 915 PM/
OVERNIGHT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE IS TRYING TO BUILD INTO MICHIGAN...
CONNECTED TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...LAKES ARE
PRODUCING SOME WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE PATTERN AS IS TYPICAL THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THIS WEAKNESS COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT/AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING OVER THE REGION IS RESULTING IN THE REDEVELOPMENT
OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG AS ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITIONAL...SCATTERED
SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK VORT LOBE ROTATING THRU THE UPPER TROUGH.
HAVE ALREADY ADJUSTED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LIGHT PRECIP. ALL
PRECIP SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW STATUS AND FOG...WITH LOWERING CIGS
AND VSBYS. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...BUT
A FEW AREAS MAY SEE HALF MILE VSBYS AT TIMES.
LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 329 PM/
SATURDAY AND BEYOND
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH LONGER WAVE RIDGING
REGAINING A FOOT HOLD OVER THE EAST. THUS MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST WITH DAYTIME TEMPS AGAIN MAKING A RUN INTO THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. UPSTREAM 500 MB WAVE AND AREA
OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS NOTED OVER WISCONSIN TODAY...WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY. COMBINED WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS/FOG SATURDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN A LESS
THAN PERFECT DAY SATURDAY (CLOUD WISE)...BUT NOT BAD OVERALL. SUNDAY
STILL LOOKING FINE UNDER AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND INCREASING
S/SE WARM ADVECTION FLOW WITH TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...06Z AND 12Z GFS SOLUTIONS TRENDED TOWARD THE
SLOWER ECMWF IDEA...WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY AND LOWERING HEIGHTS NOT
REALLY ARRIVING IN THE GREAT LAKES UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS
SUPPORTS THE IDEA STARTED BY MIDNIGHT FORECASTER OF DELAYING POPS
INTO THE STATE UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. RECENT ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARGUE
EVEN LATER...POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ARRIVES AND STARTING TO HINT TOWARD A WARMER/CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO
OVER THE MIDWEST SIMILAR TO THIS LAST SYSTEM. WILL STAY WITH A DRY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FORECAST WITH MILD DAYTIME TEMPS HOLDING
ON...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. BUT AM RELUCTANT TO GO
TO FAR WITH POP TRIMMING AND AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE PRECIP CHANCES
IN TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...SIMILAR IDEA/TRENDS AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE TODAY...SUPPORTING A BRIEF BOUT OF COLDER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK...AS LONG WAVE TROUGHING IN THE WEST PROGRESSES INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS. POSSIBILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AROUND
THANKSGIVING STILL HIGHLIGHT THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW COLD IT GETS AS TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE
REGION. GFS REMAINS THE COLDEST (TYPICAL) DRAGGING A CORE OF -10C
OR BETTER THROUGH THE STATE ON THANKSGIVING...ON THE HEELS OF A
RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS SLOWER/MORE CUTOFF AND WARMER
BUT STILL UNSETTLED...AND JUST BARELY SUPPORTS A RAIN/SNOW MIX. AT
THIS POINT...NO MAJOR TRAVEL PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE STATE
FOR THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY (WEDNESDAY). WILL MAINTAIN A WETTER
FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH PRECIP TYPE TRANSITIONING TO
MAINLY SNOW FOR THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY. WITH THAT SAID...IF RECENT
EUROPEAN TRENDS HOLD WILL NEED TO TONE BACK ON SNOW WORDING FOR THE
HOLIDAY.
ADAM
MARINE
/ISSUED AT 329 PM/
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN RATHER
LIGHT WINDS ON THE WATERS AND MINIMAL WAVES. NO MARINE HEADLINES
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
ADAM
AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 600 PM/
VALID FOR 00Z TAFS
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING OVER NRN LWR MICHIGAN WILL MAINTAIN
LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG THRU THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO IFR
AND EVEN LIFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page