014  
FXUS63 KAPX 170535  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
135 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014  
 
A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS...WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES  
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY.  
THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE SOME SNOW ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN  
TODAY...WITH A WINTRY MIX EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN  
MICHIGAN THURSDAY. SOME SUN AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO  
NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT  
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS A CANADIAN SYSTEM PUSHES  
OVER ONTARIO.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014  
 
OVERVIEW: WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES  
WITHIN BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.  
 
FORECAST CHALLENGES: SNOW CHANCES AND ACCUMULATIONS.  
 
TONIGHT...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS  
EVENING...DAMPENING OUT AS IT LIFTS THRU THE NRN LAKES THROUGH  
THURSDAY MORNING. MODEST JET FORCING AND TIGHT LOW LEVEL  
CIRCULATION...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LACKING WITH DRY SOUTHEAST  
FLOW. TOP DOWN SATURATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SWATH OF  
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING NORTHWEST LOWER INTO EASTERN UPPER. SNOWFALL  
WILL BE DRIVEN BY JET ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS...PWATS OF  
0.4"...PERSISTENT ADIABATIC OMEGA AND H8-H7 F-GEN. FAIRLY LOW  
CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL EXTEND LATE THIS  
AFTN/EVENING GIVEN VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AND SHORT LIVED NATURE  
OF BEST FORCING/DYNAMICS. SOME AREAS OF NORTHWEST LOWER MAY PICK UP  
A QUICK LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWFALL  
INTO THIS EVENING LIKELY OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE 1-3  
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
ONCE THE PRIMARY WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW PUSHES TO THE NORTH  
OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...NOT MUCH HAPPENING THE REMAINDER OF  
THE NIGHT WITH THE MAIN FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WEST/NORTH OF  
THE AREA. SOME LIGHTER SNOWS POSSIBLY CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN  
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER. LOW TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN LAST  
NIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014  
   
..SOME PRECIPITATION NORTH THURSDAY/DRY AND COOL FRIDAY
 
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF LINGERING HYDROLOGIC  
ISSUES (WITH HYDROGRAPHS ON AREA RIVERS ON THE RECESSION LIMB).  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: HEMISPHERIC PATTERN FEATURES BROAD LONG  
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...THOUGH OVERALL IS  
PRETTY PROGRESSIVE WITH AN ACTIVE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN. SEPARATE  
SHORT WAVES ROTATING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL  
IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...WITH A SPLITTING  
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE NATION'S MIDSECTION THIS WEEKEND.  
NOT A PARTICULARLY WARM PATTERN TO START WITH PASSING WAVES  
REINFORCING THE COOLER REGIME OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BUT A DIGGING  
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATION NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO  
TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN A WEAKENED STATE THURSDAY...  
FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING HEIGHT FALLS FRIDAY AND A RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE SLIDING INTO MICHIGAN SATURDAY.  
 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): PRECIPITATION WITH PASSING  
SURFACE LOW THURSDAY...THREAT FOR RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION FARTHER  
SOUTH ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF  
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY.  
 
NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY): WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING  
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...DECENT QG  
SUPPORT IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS THOUGH OVERALL MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION  
IS SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED WITH THE BEST SHOT AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP  
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND CLIPPING NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG  
TRACK OF MAIN MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER. NOT EXPECTING MUCH  
PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL FALL MOSTLY AS SNOW OVER FAR WESTERN  
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES AND MAINLY RAIN (OR A MIX OVER THE REST  
OF EASTERN UPPER) ELSEWHERE. EXPECTED TO BE A WARMER DAY ESPECIALLY  
OVER NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE SOLAR INSOLATION EXPECTED TO PUSH  
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW IS WEAKENING  
WITH TIME...DECENT LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND MIXING OUT AHEAD OF IT  
EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY...LIKELY  
GUSTING 20 TO 30+MPH AND STRONGEST ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST  
LOWER.  
 
COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING  
WILL GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY/  
RIGHT REAR JET DYNAMICS EXPECTED TO SPIN UP A BAND OF PRECIPITATION  
ACROSS INDIANA/OHIO THAT STRETCHES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER  
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MUCH OF THIS  
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE FRIDAY  
AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE A QUIET PERIOD...SOME  
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FRIDAY BETWEEN FRONTAL PRECIP BAND TO THE SOUTH  
AND NEXT PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN FRIDAY  
NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN  
THURSDAY.  
 
MEDIUM RANGE (SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY): HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS  
IN FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING...THOUGH INCREASING  
WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES HEADING  
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY  
NIGHT...BUT WILL DRY THINGS OUT FOR MONDAY. COOL SATURDAY BEFORE  
MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY): NOTHING MAJOR AT THIS POINT WHILE LOW  
PRESSURE SPINS UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MIDWEEK  
PERIOD. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014  
 
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES  
THRU 06Z FRIDAY AS WIDESPREAD SNOW STAYS NORTH OF THE LOWER PENINSULA  
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THRU THE UPPER PENINSULA.  
LLWS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NW LWR MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL) OVERNIGHT  
INTO EARLY MORNING SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. SE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN  
BY LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014  
 
WATER LEVELS ARE RECEDING AND CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING...WITH  
SOME LOW LAND FLOODING CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE M-55 CORRIDOR.  
BECAUSE OF LINGERING FLOOD ISSUES...WILL EXTEND THE COUNTY BASED  
FLOOD WARNING FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR  
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  
LH...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  
LS...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...KB  
SHORT TERM...JK  
LONG TERM...JPB  
AVIATION...MR  
HYDROLOGY...JK  
 
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