434  
FXUS63 KAPX 270531  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
131 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016  
 
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF  
SOME CIRRUS DEBRIS ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES FROM CONVECTION  
DEVELOPING ALONG THE INITIAL COLD FRONT NOW SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. TO  
OUR NW...LEADING EDGE OF LOW/MID CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
SECONDARY (STRONGER) COLD FRONT HAS REACHED FAR WESTERN UPPER  
MICHIGAN RIGHT ON SCHEDULE...AND WILL LIKELY SLIDE INTO EASTERN  
UPPER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT PER LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS. STILL  
APPEARS INCREASING CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE ON  
MONDAY. GOING FORECAST IS HANDLING THIS SCENARIO WELL...NO CHANGES  
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER TONIGHT...  
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH  
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016  
   
..COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVE TONIGHT
 
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.  
 
OVERVIEW: STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SPINNING OVER WESTERN  
ONTARIO WITH A FRONT ARCING DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. 18Z  
SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO PUSH INTO EASTERN  
UPPER MICHIGAN AND EXTENDS DOWN THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SE  
WISCONSIN, PER SUBTLE WIND SHIFT AND DROP IN DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE  
BOUNDARY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER STILL REMAINS  
OVER MOST OF THE CWA ALTHOUGH MIXING/THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER  
IS STARTING TO UNFOLD AND SKIES HAVE LARGELY CLEARED IN EASTERN  
UPPER SAVE FOR A BIT OF MARINE STRATUS ACROSS MACKINAC COUNTY.  
 
MILD BUT SOUPY OUT THERE, WITH TEMPS SPANNING THE 70S AND  
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, BUT A FAR CRY FROM THE 80S WE  
WERE ORIGINALLY PLANNING. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS ONLY A  
FEW HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE VALUES OVER THE E/SE PARTS OF THE CWA  
ALTHOUGH WE STILL HAVE TIME FOR LATE HEATING AND SOME AREAS MAY  
YET MAKE A RUN INTO THE 80S.  
 
TONIGHT: STILL WAITING TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING CAN POP. UPSTREAM  
FRONT/SUBTLE WIND SHIFT/DEWPOINT BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING THE  
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE  
FRONT IS MINIMAL AND AM VERY TEMPTED TO REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER AT  
THIS POINT. BUT WE COULD POP SOMETHING ALONG THE FRONT OR ALONG  
SOME SORT OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND  
DONE AND MOST LIKELY OVER NE LOWER MICHIGAN.  
 
OTHERWISE, CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO  
THE REGION. SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND WRAP AROUND CLOUD COVER WILL  
BE ROTATING DOWN THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AND MAY SPREAD  
SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA LATE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016  
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.  
 
STRETCH OF COOLER WX LOOKS TO WRAP UP THE MONTH. 500MB RIDGING TO  
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ROCKIES, WITH TROFFING IN PLACE OVER  
EASTERN CANADA AND THE NE QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THIS IS NOT A  
TERRIBLY ACTIVE PATTERN (THANK GOODNESS IT'S SUMMER). HOWEVER, THERE  
ARE SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY/MON NIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE  
CROSSES THE NORTHERN LAKES.  
 
MONDAY/MON NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN MI IN  
THE MORNING, VEERING WINDS FROM W TO WNW/NW AND REINFORCING COLD  
ADVECTION. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL PHASE OVER OUR HEADS MONDAY  
NIGHT, ONE ARRIVING FROM FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE OTHER FROM  
CENTRAL MN. THESE WILL COMBINE AND AMPLIFY, HELPING DRIVE ANOTHER  
TRAILING FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS  
VEERING FURTHER TO NNE.  
 
THE ABOVE ACTUALLY SOUNDS IMPRESSIVE, BUT AT NO POINT DO WE ACTUALLY  
HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SUB-850MB MOISTURE WILL INCREASE  
CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE INITIAL SECONDARY FRONT MONDAY (SEE CLOUD  
MASS THAT PRESENTLY EXISTS N AND NW OF MN). ANTICIPATE ABUNDANT LOW  
CLOUDS ALREADY IN PLACE IN EASTERN UPPER MI, AND MAKING CONSIDERABLE  
PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI DURING THE MORNING. SOUTHWARD  
PROGRESS WILL STALL BY MIDDAY THANKS TO STRONG DIURNAL HEATING, AND  
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A PARTLY SUNNY DAY IN SE SECTIONS. BUT  
ELSEWHERE, IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO BREAK DOWN THIS CLOUD DECK INTO  
ANYTHING LESS THAN A THICK CU/STRATOCU DECK, EVEN IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SAID MOISTURE DOES LOOK TOO SHALLOW FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP,  
THOUGH SOME DRIZZLE IS PERHAPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN EASTERN  
UPPER IN THE MORNING.  
 
LATE IN THE DAY, AN INPUT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPS  
ALOFT WILL BE SEEN. THIS WILL BE A MORE CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SHOWER  
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE AREAS WITH LESS  
OF A MARINE INFLUENCE. THAT INCLUDES ONTARIO (NE OF THE SAULT), AND  
WESTERN UPPER MI/NORTHERN WI. SOME OF THE FORMER COULD SCRAPE BY THE  
ST MARY VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE  
LATTER WILL TRY TO WORK ACROSS LAKE MI TOWARD NW LOWER MI IN THE  
EVENING. WE SAW THIS SORT OF THING ON WEDNESDAY OF LAST WEEK, WHEN  
DECAYING SHOWERS WERE AIDED BY COOLING/MOISTENING, AND WERE  
SUCCESSFUL IN CROSSING THE COOL LAKE WATERS. THE ECMWF REFLECTS THIS  
IDEA. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN SOME PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER/NW LOWER  
MI LATE MONDAY. WONDER IF SOME OF THE MODELS (NAM IN PARTICULAR)  
CARRY TOO MUCH PRECIP TOO FAR EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, IN  
DEFERENCE TO A STILL-SHARPENING DIGGING UPPER TROF, WILL HAVE A  
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN PART OF NE LOWER MI. SHARP  
SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES IN WESTERN/NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE BEHIND THE  
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF, AND PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE SEEN.  
 
MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM UPPER 60S PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER, TO LOWER 80S  
NEAR SAGINAW BAY. MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.  
 
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...QUIET. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE  
MONDAY NIGHT TROF ARRIVES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE  
SOME INROADS OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY, BUT NOT CLOSE  
ENOUGH TO HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT HERE. THESE PERIODS ALL APPEAR  
DRY, WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. CAN GUIDE MAX  
TEMPS A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE, AND MIN TEMPS A BIT BELOW. OVERALL, OUR  
AIRMASS IN RELATIVELY COOL (850MB TEMPS AROUND 8C), KEEPING TEMPS  
COOLER THAN NORMAL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 70F TO THE LOWER 70S TUE,  
MOSTLY MIDDLE 70S WED. MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S TUE  
NIGHT, AND SOME STRAY 30S IN INTERIOR COLD SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
JZ  
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF  
THURSDAY PROGRESSES EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN AREA OF  
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA, ULTIMATELY  
SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY.  
CERTAINLY LOOKS TO HAVE A VERY SIMILAR FEEL TO TODAY'S COLD FRONT AS  
CONVECTION OVER WI WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND THEN  
REINTENSIFIES EAST OF THE AREA. AT ANY RATE...WILL INCREASE POPS  
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TO MAINLY DRY AND  
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT  
THE EXTENDED PERIOD RANGE THROUGH THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE  
50S.  
 
GILLEN  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016  
 
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING STCU/CU THIS MORNING, AND  
ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING MIXED LAYER DEPTH SHOULD  
KEEP CIGS IN VFR CATEGORY. COOLING LOW LEVELS AND PASSAGE OF MID  
LEVEL WAVE WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. MAY SEE  
SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AT TIMES LATER TODAY AND  
TONIGHT. LIMITED COVERAGE/IMPACTS PRECLUDES A SPECIFIC MENTION IN  
THE FORECAST JUST YET. LIGHT WINDS TO BECOME A TOUCH GUSTY OUT OF  
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016  
 
GUSTY SW TO W WINDS REMAIN OVER THE LAKES THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH  
SUSTAINED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS HAVE NOT REALLY  
MATERIALIZED AT THIS JUNCTURE. SOME GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST, BUT  
PLAN TO CANCEL ADVISORIES WITH THE 5 PM FORECAST ISSUANCE.  
 
WINDS WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT AND NORTHWESTERLY ON  
TUESDAY. WE WILL SEE MORE GUSTINESS ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND  
20 KNOTS AND THERE MAY BE A NEED TO HOIST SOME ADVISORIES FOR  
MONDAY. BUT WILL LET LATER FORECAST SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AT THAT. SO  
FOR NOW WE WILL BE HEADLINE FREE.  
 
WEATHER-WISE, CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT BUT BECOMING CLOUDY AGAIN FOR  
MONDAY WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS AS MUCH COOLER AIR OVERSPREADS THE  
REGION. CLEARING OUT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  
LH...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  
LS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...MLR  
SHORT TERM...ADAM  
LONG TERM...JZ/GILLEN  
AVIATION...MSB  
MARINE...ADAM  
 
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