031  
FXUS63 KAPX 232350  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
750 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2018  
   
NEAR TERM
 
(THROUGH TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2018  
   
..QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES
 
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...AFTERNOON COMPOSITE ANALYSIS REVEALS  
SHARP RIDGING FROM THE MIDWEST UP THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. EXPANSE OF  
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS  
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST, ALONG WITH A NICE POCKET OF DRY AIR ACROSS  
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER NICE DAY OUT THERE OVERALL.  
BUT, LAKE MICHIGAN MARINE STRATUS/FOG HAS BEEN SKIRTING PARTS OF THE  
LAKESHORE ALL DAY, PARTICULARLY AROUND FRANKFORT AND INTO LEELANAU  
COUNTY WHERE COASTAL FOG HAS BEEN A LET DOWN TODAY. ALSO, POCKET OF  
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR NOTED OVER THE SW COUNTIES (TVC/CAD HAVE  
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S) ACTUALLY GENERATING SOME SBCAPE  
AND MODESTLY AGITATED CU FIELD ACROSS THAT AREA.  
 
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE  
NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS, MAINTAINING THIS RUN OF QUIET WEATHER, ALONG  
WITH WARMING TEMPS/INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF  
THE SURFACE HIGH.  
 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: STRATUS/FOG TRENDS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,  
STRATUS/FOG HAS PLAGUED LAKE MICHIGAN AND PARTS OF THE SHORELINE  
THROUGH THE DAY. ALWAYS A TOUGH CALL FIGURING OUT WHAT IT'S GOING TO  
DO. BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING FROM THE SW, MARINE  
STRATUS/FOG WILL PROBABLY CREEP UP THE SHORELINE AND THROUGH THE  
STRAITS AS WE GO THROUGH TONIGHT. EVEN MORE UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT  
WE GET SOME STRATUS/FOG TO PENETRATE INLAND INTO PARTS OF THE NW  
LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE EASTERN U.P. I DON'T HAVE THAT CURRENTLY IN  
THE FORECAST, BUT EVENING/MIDNIGHT SHIFTS WILL WANT TO MONITOR  
STRATUS TRENDS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2018  
   
..HIGH PRESSURE EXITING STAGE RIGHT
 
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS  
BEEN OVER THE REGION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF  
THE AREA THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE  
DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA OF  
RIDGING SPANNING THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS. THIS SHORTWAVE IS  
SET TO AFFECT US AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH  
SATURDAY.  
 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: THERE ARE A COUPLE OF THINGS TO KEEP AN  
EYE ON IN THE SHORT TERM. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN  
OVERHEAD, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE  
CENTER GETS TO OUR EAST, FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY INCREASING  
BOTH MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING  
SHORTWAVE WILL ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE THIS. FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES  
IN THE BLEND ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, BUT I WONDER IF THEY MAY  
GET EVEN WARMER. A LOT OF TIMES WHEN THE RIDGING GETS FOLDED INTO  
THE REGION, AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES REALLY  
CLIMB.  
 
THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE RAIN/THUNDER POTENTIAL  
OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY BEING A HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE THE GULF  
WILL BE CLOSED, THERE ARE PWATS IN THE 1.5" NEIGHBORHOOD STRETCHING  
THROUGH THE PLAINS THAT THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL ADVECT WITH  
IT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY ADD TO THE HUMIDITY, BUT WILL HELP TO  
INCREASE INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WIND SHEAR  
LOOKS RATHER ANEMIC FOR SUPPORTING SEVERE DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME,  
BUT THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS  
COULD DEVELOP. RAIN CHANCES WILL START ACROSS THE U.P. THURSDAY  
NIGHT, SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2018  
   
..IT'S DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN
 
 
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME ENERGY SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT SUNDAY, THE FIRST  
HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.  
HIGH PRESSURE SETUP OVER THE REGION WILL BRING WARM AND DRY  
CONDITIONS, WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2018  
 
VFR, BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON PLN/MBL FOR POTENTIAL MARINE  
FOG/STRATUS.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI, WITH GENERALLY  
DRY AIR IN PLACE. HOWEVER, SOME FOG/STRATUS CONTINUES OVER THE  
CHILLY WATERS OF LAKE MI. THIS WILL GRADUALLY GET PUSHED NE-WARD  
INTO PARTS OF UPPER MI, BUT COULD POTENTIALLY BRING SOME  
FOG/STRATUS TO PLN/MBL TONIGHT (ESPECIALLY LATE) INTO THURSDAY  
MORNING. OTHERWISE, CONTINUES VFR.  
 
AS THE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST, A BIT OF A SW BREEZE WILL DEVELOP  
ON THURSDAY, THOUGH ONSHORE LAKE BREEZES RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2018  
 
DENSE FOG WILL LINGER OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON,  
WITH DENSE FOG ADVISORIES FROM MANISTEE TO THE STRAITS. WINDS WILL  
BEGIN TO PICK UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE  
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FRIDAY  
EVENING.  
 

 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  
LH...NONE.  
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ341-342-  
344>346.  
LS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...ADAM  
SHORT TERM...AM  
LONG TERM...AM  
AVIATION...JZ  
MARINE...AM  
 
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