229  
FXUS63 KAPX 292311  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
711 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015  
   
NEAR TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015  
   
..PERIODS OF SNOW TONIGHT/SOME MIXED PRECIP EARLY IN SPOTS
 
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: PERIODS OF SNOW EARLY WITH SOME  
HEAVIER BURSTS. GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE.  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN  
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN/  
EASTERN IOWA. SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHING INTO WISCONSIN GIVEN  
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS MICHIGAN A BOOST THIS AFTERNOON...  
LEADING EDGE OF MOSTLY SNOW WAS DRIVEN BY AN ELONGATED VORTICITY  
AXIS AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE. INITIAL SNOW BAND WAS FAIRLY NARROW  
BUT AS FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS REACHED THE BACK EDGE  
OF THE PRECIP BAND HAVE BEEN GETTING A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF RADAR  
RETURNS. SOME DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE  
TROUGH OVER WESTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. PRECIP HAS BEEN  
FALLING MOSTLY AS SNOW AFTER A VERY BRIEF START AS RAIN...  
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER-MID 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER SO MORE  
LIKELY THAT AS PRECIP MOVES EAST OF M-65 MAY SEE MORE LIQUID THERE.  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE  
HEELS OF THE FIRST OVER MINNESOTA.  
 
OCCLUDED FRONT AND DRIVING SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA  
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH YET ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIGGING  
IN MONDAY MORNING.  
 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION. WINDS.  
 
TONIGHT...CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN LOWER DURING THE LATE  
AFTERNOON FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE LAST OF THE DEFORMATION  
PRECIP SLIDES IN. PRECIP TYPE MAY WAFFLE BACK TOWARD LIQUID ACROSS  
PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER WITH SOME THERMAL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH  
OCCLUDED FRONT PASSING THROUGH. IN GENERAL BULK OF THE  
PRECIPITATION/"IMPACTS" OCCURRING NOW OVER NORTHERN LOWER PORTION OF  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AND WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION  
EXPECTED PLAN TO DROP THIS PORTION OF THE HEADLINE AND KEEP IT GOING  
FOR CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES WHERE SNOW WILL BE A LITTLE MORE  
PERSISTENT. NORTHERN LOWER IMPACTS BETTER COVERED BY A SPECIAL  
WEATHER STATEMENT SINCE THEY ARE MORE WIDESPREAD THE AREA COVERED BY  
ADVISORY ANYHOW. SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS  
FORCING PULLS EAST...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPER LOW LEVEL  
LAPSE RATES OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY  
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER.  
 
WILL ALSO LET THE WIND ADVISORY DROP INSTEAD OF WAITING UNTIL 22Z AS  
WIND GUSTS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM AND WERE STRONGEST WITH THE PRECIP  
BAND AND ASSOCIATED EVAPORATIVE COOLING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015  
   
..SLOW WARMING TREND
 
 
 
IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL BE MILDER BUT STILL COOL VERSUS "NORMALS" FOR  
LATE MARCH AND EARLY APRIL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WARMING IS FINALLY  
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING  
THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATER  
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS THEN  
EXPECTED FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET  
ANOTHER SYSTEM DUE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MAIN  
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY...AND HOW WARM IT WILL TURN ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
MONDAY...ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING  
UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW IN THE MORNING  
POSSIBLY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.  
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. TURNING MILDER IN THE  
AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S  
NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT WITH  
THE TRACK OF THE NEXT WAVE CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOP  
ACROSS SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. ECMWF PRETTY MUCH MISSES US TO THE  
SOUTH...NAM BULLSEYES NORTHERN MICHIGAN WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHERE  
IN BETWEEN. HAVE TAKEN THE MODEL BLEND APPROACH AND BACKED DOWN A  
BIT ON POPS...PUSHING THEM A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIPITATION TYPE  
IS ALSO A TOUGH CALL AS WELL WITH RAIN OR SNOW STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS  
SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH ANYTHING FALLING LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW  
ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES (BUT WITH LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED).  
LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING  
FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH. HIGHS TUESDAY RANGING  
FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IN  
THE ACTION OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM DUE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A  
MUCH MILDER SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES TOWARD AND INTO  
THE 50S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015  
 
PRECIP WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEST TO EAST ON  
THURSDAY...FOCUSED ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM AN OCCLUDED LOW MOVING  
THROUGH ONTARIO. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.  
PREVIOUSLY NOTED SOUTHWARD TREND OF LOW PRESSURE IN SOME GUIDANCE  
HAS CONTINUED...FAVORING A DRY SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY. STILL A SHOT FOR  
SOME WEEKEND PRECIP WITH THIS ACTIVE PATTERN AS ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL  
BE PASSING TO THE NORTH...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TO GET DETAILS  
NAILED DOWN. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH  
HOW WARM DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM ARRIVES...AND HOW MUCH  
TIME WE CAN SPEND IN THE WARM SECTOR.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015  
 
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT  
ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THIS EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A  
POTENT COLD FRONT. SNOW WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE  
FRONT...BUT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL  
PERSIST INTO MONDAY. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE  
NW THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THRU MONDAY.  
 

 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ008-  
015.  
 
LH...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ321-322.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...JPB  
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN  
LONG TERM...ALM  
AVIATION...MLR  
 
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