293  
FXUS63 KAPX 281036  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
636 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
   
NEAR TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:  
 
EARLY THIS MORNING, SEVERAL UPPER TROUGHS SEEN ON SATELLITE. ONE  
WORKING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, ANOTHER CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY,  
ONE OVER HUDSON BAY, ONE DRIFTING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND FINALLY,  
ONE WORKING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES. THE SRN CONUS WAVES WERE ALL  
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY LIGHT  
RAINS/SHOWERS IN NORTH DAKOTA. NRN MICHIGAN WAS QUIET WITH ONLY SOME  
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND MN. TEMPERATURES WERE LOCKED  
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. THERE WAS A NICE WEDGE OF DRIER LOW  
LEVEL AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEING FED SOUTHWARD FROM SRN  
ONTARIO IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE WEAK RIDGE OF SFC HIGH  
PRESSURE.  
 
NOT REALLY MUCH IN THE WAY OF WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL  
DRIER AIR WITHIN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FEED DOWN INTO THE REGION,  
CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS, AND FINALLY BRING NRN MICHIGAN SOME SUNSHINE.  
ONLY THE WEAK DAKOTAS TROUGH WILL BRING SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS  
ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE SHALLOW CUMULUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL  
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN EASTERN UPPER TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW  
50S M-72 SOUTH. DEEP DRY AIR HOLDS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH GOOD  
RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN LOW TO MIDDLE 20S. THOSE COLDER LOW  
LYING AREAS MAKING IT INTO THE TEENS. ALSO, WONDER ABOUT POSSIBLE  
FOG DEVELOPMENT. NOTHING SEE ATTM UPSTREAM, BUT PATCHY FOG IS  
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
   
..PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
 
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL, ALTHOUGH A BIT OF  
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
PATTERN FORECAST: MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE EVIDENT  
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED  
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH RESULTING IN  
QUIET CONDITIONS, SOME SUNSHINE, AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AT  
THE SAME TIME, A LARGE SCALE BUCKLE IN THE JET STREAM IS EVIDENT  
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WHICH IS PROGGED TO RESULT IN  
CYCLOGENESIS LEE OF THE ROCKIES EJECTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES  
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE NEXT THREAT  
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE  
RETURNS ONCE AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS AND CHALLENGES  
REVOLVE AROUND THE EVOLUTION OF THURSDAY'S SYSTEM, BUT NOT BEFORE  
FAIRLY PLEASANT SPRING-LIKE WEATHER IS THE MAIN FEATURE FOR  
WEDNESDAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES  
RANGING FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE WILL  
BE THE RULE.  
 
FORECAST FOCUS QUICKLY TURNS TO THURSDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED  
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY LATE  
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RESULT IN  
HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO A STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE MIDSECTION  
OF THE COUNTRY, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS AS LATEST TRENDS  
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE SHIFTED THE STORM SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY  
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES LIMITED TO ALONG AND  
SOUTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD  
APPROACH AT THIS JUNCTURE, AS DID THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, SIMPLY DUE TO  
A LACK OF CONFIDENCE TO MAKE WHOLESALE FORECAST CHANGES IN ONE  
DIRECTION OR ANOTHER. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST  
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT THE DAY  
THURSDAY, WITH LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF M-55  
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. P-TYPE ISSUES ALSO COME INTO QUESTION EARLY  
THURSDAY MORNING (DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK INITIAL PRECIP IS ABLE TO  
ARRIVE) AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL ALMOST BE SOLELY BASED ON  
THE DEPTH OF THE NEAR-SURFACE WARM LAYER, WHICH FITTINGLY REMAINS IN  
QUESTION AS A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES EXIST VIA THE LATEST  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. GUT FEELING IS THAT P-TYPE REMAINS PRIMARILY  
RAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY THANKS TO A LACK OF DEEP-LAYER COLD AIR  
AND LATE MARCH DIURNAL PROCESSES, PERHAPS BOUNDED BRIEFLY BY A FEW  
WET SNOWFLAKES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING  
AND ACROSS A LARGER SECTION OF NORTHERN LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT. A  
MINOR ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW IN SOME SPOTS  
THURSDAY NIGHT SEEMS FEASIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS THE MAIN SLUG OF  
MOISTURE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS  
EASTWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP HAVING  
ENDED BY THE MIDDAY HOURS FRIDAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
 
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT'S PRECIP DIMINISHES FRIDAY MORNING, EXPECTED  
TO COME TO AN END BY THE MIDDAY HOURS. BROAD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW  
TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAK WAVE  
OR TWO SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS MAY BRING A PERIOD OR  
TWO OF MIXED PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND, MORE SPECIFICALLY SATURDAY  
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY; HOWEVER, MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS  
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. BEYOND  
THAT, SIGNALS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MORE SIZABLE STORM IMPACTING A  
PORTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE  
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT, LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN WITH  
PERHAPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 634 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
 
IFR/MVFR PRODUCING LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO IMPROVING  
CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATTER MORNING HOURS AS MUCH  
DRIER AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS  
AND POSSIBLE SHALLOW CU BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES  
CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS TAF  
DURATION.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
 
THINGS LOOK QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY AS SFC HIGHER PRESSURE NOSES INTO  
THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA. NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL  
CLEAR OUT SKIES TODAY, BEFORE THE HIGH DEPARTS AND WINDS TURN EAST  
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THURSDAY. WINDS  
WILL BE SUB-ADVISORY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.  
 

 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  
LH...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  
LS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...SMD  
SHORT TERM...MJG  
LONG TERM...MJG  
AVIATION...SMD  
MARINE...SMD  
 
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