049  
FXUS63 KAPX 032235  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
635 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015  
 
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PUSHING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH  
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAKENING  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY DIMINISHES RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE  
BRIDGE AND WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS  
AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY  
OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT AND BROUGHT POPS AS FAR SOUTH AT  
M-32...ALTHOUGH DON/T THINK MUCH ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR  
SOUTH.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015  
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LWR MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE  
SRN TIP OF A WEAK MOISTURE-STARVED COOL FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM  
ONTARIO THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE ARROWHEAD  
OF MINNESOTA. BKN LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MADE  
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THRU UPR MICHIGAN. COOL FRONT HAS GENERALLY  
STALLED OUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF  
BECOMING SEMI-PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDER HAS BEEN  
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ALSO...  
TEMPS HAVE BEEN A BIT BEHIND TODAY LIKELY (AT LEAST IN PART) DUE TO  
THE THICKENING LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM MASSIVE WRN AND CENTRAL  
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WELL UPSTREAM OF MICHIGAN.  
 
LATEST NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SLOWLY DROP THE COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD  
THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...DISSIPATING RESULTING  
PRECIP AS IT DOES SO. BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME UPTICK IN  
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU EARLY EVENING...  
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF  
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR ERN UPR  
MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIMIT CHANCE POPS TO  
SHOWERS ONLY FOR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NW OF A  
LINE FROM PZQ TO CVX TO THE TIP OF THE LEELANAU PENINSULA. EXPECT  
ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL END BY AROUND 06Z WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THRU  
EARLY MORNING. CERTAINLY NO CHANCE OF SVR STORMS THRU EARLY EVENING  
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...LACK OF DESCENT MOISTURE AND WEAK WIND  
FIELDS. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015  
 
PATTERN OVERVIEW/FORECAST: LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH  
OF CANADA DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE  
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH...ONE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO  
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PRESSING DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ON  
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS A SIDE NOTE...THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH  
BROAD NW FLOW FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HAS PULLED THICK  
SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES ACROSS CANADA INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS  
HAS PRETTY MUCH SQUELCHED OUR SUNSHINE TODAY AND PERHAPS KEPT TEMPS  
DOWN JUST A BIT. MEANWHILE...STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS  
NW CANADA...A SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING US SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STILL  
LOOKING TO PRETTY MUCH WASH ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN HEADING INTO  
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ELONGATED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING  
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY  
WILL GET STRETCHED ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY. WITH  
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MUSTER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF  
MLCAPE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL  
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW END  
CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS TOWARD SAGINAW BAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW A FEW DAYS BACK. BUT  
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY/NIGHT OVERALL WITH TEMPS WARMING TO  
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S.  
 
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...I/M PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE WORRIED ABOUT OUR  
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. STRONGER WAVE IN NW CANADA  
WORKS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/HUDSON BAY REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY  
NIGHT...PUSHING AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT  
WORRIED ABOUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA.  
BUT...STRONGER SW RETURN FLOW INTO NRN MICHIGAN WILL BE PUSHING LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. CERTAINLY  
POSSIBLE WE SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE RETURNING MOISTURE  
GRADIENT. BUT OF BIGGER CONCERN IS GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF POLLING  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE  
WITHIN THE SW FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR POPPING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/  
STORMS ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED ADDING  
POPS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT GUIDANCE IS  
OVERDOING SFC DEWPOINTS (FORECASTING 70 DEWPOINTS) AND HENCE  
INSTABILITY. SO...WON/T JUMP ON THAT YET. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD  
BE OUR WARMEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER  
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.  
 
MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKES IT/S WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND  
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. GUIDANCE TIMING IS OF COURSE  
SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND I SUSPECT IT WILL SLOW EVEN FURTHER GIVEN  
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW  
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE...BUT I HAVE PRETTY  
MUCH KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015  
 
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GET OFF TO A BIT OF A WET START TUESDAY AS A  
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THINGS SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY WEDNESDAY  
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME IN TO PLAY WILL  
BE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE  
REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS COULD HAVE  
AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN CHANCES. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS WELL TO  
OUR SOUTH...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PREFERRED STORM TRACK TO DIVE  
SOUTH...THIS SEEMS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT  
CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY  
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...MODERATING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL BY  
THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 625 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015  
 
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DESPITE A FEW  
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DROPPING SOUTH ALONG A WEAKENING  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS ALONG  
FRONT TONIGHT...WITH POCKETS OF 3-5K CIGS. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER  
EARLY SATURDAY WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON  
SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015  
 
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT  
GIVEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. SHOWERS  
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEARSHORE AREAS  
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU 00Z THIS EVENING.  
 

 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  
LH...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  
LS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...KEYSOR  
NEAR TERM...MLR  
SHORT TERM...ADAM  
LONG TERM...ALM  
AVIATION...KEYSOR  
MARINE...MLR  
 
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