686  
FXUS63 KAPX 241816  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
116 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1112 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2017  
 
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES MAINLY EAST OF I-75 LATE THIS MORNING,  
THOUGH IT HAS BEEN GROWING LESS ORGANIZED AND HAS SHOWED SIGNS  
OF GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE DEFORMATION  
BANDING FALLS APART. AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE ALSO FALLING APART.  
TEMPERATURES ARE JUST NOW SLOWLY STARTING TO RISE INTO THE  
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE AREA, SO EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW  
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHEAST LOWER TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY  
EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, BUT ONCE  
AGAIN TODAY AREAS OF FOG STILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS  
MORNING. DO EXPECT THE FOG TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS  
WINDS INCREASE A BIT OUT OF THE NW, AND IT LOOKS LIKE ANY  
LINGERING POCKETS OF DENSE FOG ARE RAPIDLY DISAPPEARING. FORECAST  
FOR THE REST OF TODAY LOOKS ON TRACK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2017  
   
..TURNING JUST A BIT COOLER
 
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: REALLY NOT A WHOLE LOT. STILL DEALING  
WITH SOME FOG ISSUES AND JUST PERHAPS SOME OVERNIGHT FREEZING  
DRIZZLE CONCERNS.  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: NORTH/SOUTH BAND OF DEFORMATION DRIVEN  
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
AREA AT THIS EARLY HOUR, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SIGNS OF IT BEGINNING TO  
SHRINK AND SLOWLY FOCUS MORE TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA.  
TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION  
TO FALL AS RAIN, ALTHOUGH SLOWLY COOLING THERMAL PROFILES IS ALLOWING  
JUST A BIT OF SNOW TO MIX IN, PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS SLOWLY TRANSIENT  
TODAY AND TONIGHT, FORCING AXIS OF OVERHEAD FORCING AND DEEPER  
MOISTURE TO PIVOT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS NARROW MID LEVEL  
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
LOOKING FURTHER UPSTREAM, LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ALREADY UNDERWAY  
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AS STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE GETS SET  
TO EJECT OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO  
ORGANIZE AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY, REACHING  
EASTERN IOWA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION  
REGIME WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF  
THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT, BRINGING THE THREAT FOR A BIT OF SNOW  
ALONG WITH IT.  
 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TRENDS TODAY.  
ADDRESSING THAT LIGHT WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT. FOG TRENDS  
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
DETAILS: OVERHEAD BAND OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO  
SLOWLY FADE THIS MORNING AS IT PIVOTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. STILL  
LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY WET START TO THE DAY, WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR  
AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 75. ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY COOL,  
ALLOWING AT LEAST THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A BIT OF SNOW TO MIX IN, ONCE  
AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. NOT A BIG DEAL AT  
ALL, WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MID AND UPPER LEVEL  
MOISTURE PEELS OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON, LEAVING BEHIND AN  
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE MOIST LAYER. MOISTURE PROFILES  
LOOK TO REMAIN JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP AROUND SOME DRIZZLE/VERY  
LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEAST LOWER AND AREAS NORTH OF THE BIG  
BRIDGE. OTHERWISE ANOTHER CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY, ALONG WITH SOME  
LINGERING FOG. HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN THE LAST  
FEW, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL (AND ABOVE FREEZING) FOR THIS TIME  
OF YEAR.  
 
OTHER THAN SOME FOG, THIS EVENING IS LOOKING FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL AS  
THAT TRANSIENT RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES  
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THAT ELEVATED WAA REGIME BEGINS. MULTI-  
RUN GUIDANCE TRENDS IS FOR A COOLER PROFILE THROUGH THE COLUMN,  
SUPPORTING AN ALL SNOW EVENT, AND ALSO A SLOWER ONSET OF FULL  
SATURATION, WITH SNOW ONLY REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST  
THIRD OF THE AREA. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, WITH AMOUNTS  
LIKELY REMAINING WELL UNDER AN INCH. WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT  
FOR A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE NORTH OF THE  
STRAITS, WHERE SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER DEEP SUB -10C MOIST LAYER  
DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ENOUGH EVIDENCE THERE TO  
GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST, AND MAY INTRODUCE THIS  
CONCERN IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2017  
   
..THE TREND IS DOWN AFTER WEDNESDAY
 
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...THE RETURN OF SNOW AND THE FREEZING  
OF THE WET SURFACES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IS THE HIGHEST  
IMPACT WEATHER. ALTHOUGH, THERE A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS  
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...THERE IS A DRY LAYER BELOW -10C IN E  
UPPER AT 12Z, BUT THE NAM AND THE GFS SATURATE THAT LAYER BY 15Z  
WHEN THE BEST FORCING ARRIVES, SO HAVE KEPT THE FZDZ OUT OF THE MAIN  
FORECAST AS IT LOOKS MORE LIKE SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX WILL CONTINUE  
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE TEMPERATURES ALL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BY  
14Z. HOWEVER, AS WE CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, THE COLD AIR MOVES  
BACK INTO THE REGION AND THE RAIN/SNOW MIX TURNS OVER TO SNOW DURING  
THE NIGHT. FOR THURSDAY, THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE, AND TRANSITION  
THROUGH THE DAY TO LES AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER E LAKE  
SUPERIOR AND N LAKE MICHIGAN FALL TO ABOUT -8C OR -9C BY 18Z. BY  
00Z, THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALL AT -10C OR COLDER SO WE BEGIN  
TO TRANSITION TO MORE LAKE EFFECT THAN LAKE ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE  
NIGHT.  
 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IF THERE IS ENOUGH  
LOW LEVEL FORCING THAT THE WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL HAVE MORE FREEZING  
DRIZZLE, BUT BASED ON THE RIDGING THAT THE MODELS HAVE AND THE  
SUBSIDENCE, THINK THAT IT MAY JUST BE CLOUDY INITIALLY, AND THE WE  
START TO GET A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE ON THE FRONT END OF THE SNOW, BY  
THE TIME THE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING.  
 
OTHERWISE, THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST SHIFTS TO LES. THE SNOW  
AMOUNTS OVER 12 HOURS LOOK TO BE MINOR TO LIGHT AMOUNTS. IT IS  
POSSIBLE, HOWEVER, THAT WITH SOME STEADY WIND DIRECTIONS, WHICH  
COULD HAPPEN THURSDAY NIGHT, THAT A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW  
COULD DEVELOP, BUT THINK THAT IS ON THE LOW END OF PROBABILITY AT  
THIS POINT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2017  
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...LES IS THE ONLY ISSUE IT LOOKS LIKE  
AT THIS POINT, BUT NO PARTICULAR TIME PERIOD LOOKS VERY IMPACTFUL.  
 
EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AS THE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH  
US ON WEDNESDAY MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND, IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND THE  
CYCLONIC CURVATURE EXTENDS BACK INTO THE N PLAINS. WITH THAT, WE ARE  
IN FAVORABLE LES PATTERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. THE WIND DIRECTIONS BE NW OR WNW THROUGH SATURDAY, AND  
THEN TURN MORE NNW OR N ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO NW  
ON MONDAY AND THEN IT LOOKS LIKE IT ENDS UNTIL THE NEXT COLD PUSH ON  
TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2017  
 
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH  
LINGERING PATCHY DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE  
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AT KAPN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY  
GRADUALLY PUSH FURTHER EAST. OTHERWISE FOG AND LOW STRATUS REMAIN  
THE PRIMARY ISSUES, RESULTING IN LIFR TO LOW END IFR CONDITIONS  
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. NOT EXPECTING IMPROVEMENT, PARTICULARLY IN  
CEILINGS, HEADING INTO TONIGHT.  
 
CAN'T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT AND PERHAPS SOME  
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT KPLN WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP  
CLOSE TO FREEZING. NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST  
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHT SNOW SPREADING  
NORTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER 10Z. AS TEMPERATURES WARM  
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE  
OVER TO RAIN. GENERALLY LIFR TO IFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES ON WED.  
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, SHIFTING FROM THE NW  
THIS AFTERNOON TO SE LATER TONIGHT INTO WED.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2017  
 
OTHER THAN SOME FOG, MINIMAL CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY AS LIGHT WIND REGIME CONTINUES. WINDS DO INCREASE OUT OF  
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS, AT TIMES GUSTY,  
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SCA/S ARE POSSIBLE FOR  
AT LEAST SOME NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD.  
 

 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  
LH...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  
LS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...MEK  
NEAR TERM...MSB  
SHORT TERM...JSL  
LONG TERM...JSL  
AVIATION...MEK  
MARINE...MSB  
 
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