764  
FXUS63 KAPX 190306  
AFDAPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
1006 PM EST THU JAN 18 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EST THU JAN 18 2018  
 
LOW CLOUD DECK COVERS MOST OF NORTHERN MI NORTH OF M-72, THOUGH  
THE WEST EDGE OVER BENZIE CO IS TRYING TO WOBBLE NORTHWARD.  
MEANWHILE, INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE UPSTREAM OVER MN AND  
SURROUNDING AREAS. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVERLAKE  
INSTABILITY AND SUPPRESS INVERSION HEIGHTS, AND LOW CLOUD DECK HAS  
LIKELY GOTTEN ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS IT WILL GET. BUT RAPID  
DIMINISHING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER 12Z, WHEN  
1000-850MB WINDS BACK TOWARD THE SW. THE HIGHER CLOUDS WILL  
OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REGARDLESS.  
 
THE ABOVE REASONING, AND A PERSISTENT SW SURFACE BREEZE, ARGUE FOR  
ADJUSTING MIN TEMPS A BIT WARMER. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE IN  
EASTERN UPPER MI.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU JAN 18 2018  
   
..ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
 
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...MINIMAL; POSSIBLE SOME FREEZING  
DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.  
 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS...CHANCES AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WITH  
MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE AND UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH.  
 
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...AT UPPER LEVELS, A WEAK 500MB WAVE  
PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES CURRENTLY, WILL EXIT EAST OF LAKE HURON  
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS  
EXITING WAVE, WILL SLOWLY TREND NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION ON  
FRIDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THIS PATTERN WILL WARM DRAMATICALLY  
FROM AROUND -4C TONIGHT, TO AROUND +8C FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MID  
LVL RESPONSE, WILL GENERATE ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY  
(NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS DATE ARE IN THE MID 20S). AT THE  
SURFACE, A WEAKLY ORGANIZED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS  
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING, WILL LIFT NORTH AS CLIPPER FROM  
CENTRAL CANADA DROPS SOUTH AND PUSHES INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED AND  
HINDERED THROUGH FRIDAY BY DISORGANIZED FORCING AND LACK OF MOISTURE.  
500/300MB QVECTORS SHOW LINGERING CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
500MB WEAK WAVE MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES CURRENTLY, QUICKLY  
PUSHING EAST THIS EVENING. 850/700MB QVECTORS, SHOW THE BEST  
CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS  
THE CANADIAN CLIPPER DROPS INTO ONTARIO. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW  
EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE 800MB ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA  
TONIGHT, BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES OVER ERN UPPER AND STRAITS REGION  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS DRY AIR WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE  
THIS CHANCE FOR PCPN IN GENERAL ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE CONCERN FOR DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE  
INCREASES AS LOW LVLS MOISTEN OVERNIGHT, WHILE MID LVLS REMAIN DRY  
(A 10KFT DRY LAYER ABOVE 800MB). ADDITIONALLY MODELS SHOW SOME WIND  
SHEAR NEAR THE TOP OF THE LOW LVL MSTR LAYER INCREASING THE CHANCES  
FOR DRIZZLE.  
 
OVERALL WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST  
PERIOD. WILL MENTION SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER EXTREME NRN  
LOWER MI AND EAST UPPER MI TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WHERE DEEPEST SFC  
MOISTURE EXISTS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU JAN 18 2018  
   
..MILDER TEMPERATURES
 
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...MINIMAL.  
 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NONE.  
 
QUIET WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING BY TO THE  
NORTH LEADING TO MILDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A  
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL  
CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, LOW PRESSURE  
EMERGES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARD  
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM  
WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW (MAINLY NORTH) ON  
SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S AND MAINLY  
THE 30S SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY NIGHT  
AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU JAN 18 2018  
   
..WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
 
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...WINTRY MIX SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  
 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO  
MONDAY.  
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE EAST OF THE ROCKIES, HEAD NORTHEAST ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THEN ON INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY AS FAR AS THE EXACT  
STORM TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS STILL  
TRACK IT ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BRINGING THE WARM SECTOR UP  
INTO MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER AT A MINIMUM (TOWARD THE STRAITS). THE  
LATEST ECMWF RUN HOWEVER IS FARTHER SOUTH SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY  
REMAINS. THE FARTHER SOUTH TRACK MAY BE A FUNCTION OF STRONG HIGH  
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SUPPRESSING IT. IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO PIN  
DOWN THE DETAILS ANYWAYS BUT EXPECT A MESSY WINTRY MIXTURE OF RAIN,  
SNOW, FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (WITH A  
LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTHERN  
LOWER). AN IMPACT ON TRAVEL IS EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN  
LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO ROUND OUT THE  
FORECAST. AFTER A MILD START MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY  
EASE BACK DOWN TO AVERAGE TUESDAY AND EVEN BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW  
FOR MIDWEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST THU JAN 18 2018  
 
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS.  
 
RELATIVELY QUIET WX FOR MID-JANUARY, WITH OCCASIONAL CLIPPER  
SYSTEMS MOVING IN FROM THE WNW, BUT WITH NO MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR  
THEM TO DO ANYTHING. SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW  
CLOUDS (MVFR) AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
SW WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES.  
 

 
   
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...JZ  
NEAR TERM...SR  
SHORT TERM...AS  
LONG TERM...AS  
AVIATION...JZ  
 
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