291
FXUS63 KGRR 291201
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
701 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER CERTAINLY HANGING ON TODAY AND FRIDAY
- QUIETER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND
- A BIT WARMER NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
- WINTER CERTAINLY HANGING ON TODAY AND FRIDAY
WINTER JUST DOES NOT WANT TO GIVE UP. WE HAVE HAD SOME SNOW
OVERNIGHT HERE AT NWS GRAND RAPIDS WHICH NOW MAKES DAY 16 OF AT
LEAST A TRACE OF SNOW. YESTERDAY WE EXTENDED AND EXPANDED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND CANNOT ARGUE WITH
THAT DECISION. IN FACT, WE HAVE EXTENDED THE HEADLINE THROUGH
100PM. SIGNALS WITH THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT AND WITHIN MODEL DATA
SHOW AN INCREASING TREND THIS MORNING, WHICH SHOULD AFFECT THE
MORNING COMMUTE AND POTENTIALLY INTO MIDDAY. THE WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH IS NOW PRODUCING LONG FETCH MORE
DOMINANT BANDS. BENEATH THIS BANDS THE MIDRIVE WEBSITE IS SHOWING
SLOWED TRAVEL WITH ORANGE COLORS AT PRESENT NEAR HOLLAND AND
SAUGATUCK WHERE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT REFLECTIVITY IS LOCATED.
MODEL DATA SHOWS LIFT WITHIN A DGZ THAT IS SQUARELY IN THE CLOUD
LAYER. 925-850MB OMEGA FIELDS SHOW STRONG LIFT UP AND DOWN THE
LAKESHORE THIS MORNING. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
WITH POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO THE COLD AND FALLING SNOW.
WE WILL NEED TO LIKELY ISSUE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN FOR WIND CHILL VALUES THAT WILL DIP TO
AROUND -15F. WITH SOME CLEARING AND A FRESH SNOW PACK WE SHOULD
RADIATE WELL TONIGHT MAKING BELOW ZERO F LOW TEMPS LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OFF SHORE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS THE OFF SHORE WINDS TAKE THE ACTIVITY OUT OVER THE
LAKE.
- QUIETER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND
RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD BRING A QUIETER
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT OUT OF OUR AREA
FOR THE MOST PART.
- A BIT WARMER NEXT WEEK
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR -20C TODAY AND FRIDAY. BY NEXT
WEEK WE SHOULD HAVE WARMED TO AROUND -10C. IT DOES NOT SEEM LIKE
MUCH, BUT IT IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGHS IN THE TEENS VS HIGHS
IN THE 20S. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
A NORTHWEST WIND OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE BOTH SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS. MANY SITES ARE VFR
THIS MORNING, BUT WE SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
IN THE 2000-3000FT LAYER. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT
TOWARDS THE LAKE, SO MKG WILL BE MOST IMPACTED. MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY AT MKG. WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT WHICH IS A WIND DIRECTION WHERE WE USUALLY
CLEAR OUT IN A LAKE EFFECT REGIME. MODELS ARE TRYING TO HANG ON TO
SOME MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT, BUT WE FEEL CLEARING IS A GOOD BET.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AND TONIGHT VEERING FROM NORTHWEST TO
NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037-
043-050-056-064-071-072.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
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