076  
FXUS63 KGRR 010721  
AFDGRR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI  
321 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014  
 
LATEST UPDATE...  
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST BY MONDAY ALLOWING MILDER SOUTHWEST WINDS  
TO DEVELOP BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY AND WE COOL  
BACK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014  
 
QUIET WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM AS SFC RIDGE DOMINATES. WITH THE  
RIDGE AXIS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING IS  
OPTIMIZED AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE  
20S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS WILL BE DOWN  
INTO THE TEENS.  
 
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE STORY EARLY IN THE WEEK AS  
SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST. TEMPERATURES  
SHOULD REBOUND THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE DRY  
WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO  
BE WELL WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN AND JUST ENTERING WISCONSIN ON  
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014  
 
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY UNSETTLED FOR  
THE AREA. WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF  
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. ONE WILL COME THROUGH DURING THE MON NIGHT  
AND TUE TIME FRAME...AND THE OTHER WILL BE DURING THE LATE WED INTO  
THU TIME FRAME.  
 
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT THE FIRST SYSTEM FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE  
WILL BE THE WETTEST SYSTEM OF THE LONG TERM. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH  
THAT IS CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE ACROSS THE WRN U.S. COAST WILL  
SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND INTO MON OF  
NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL BE LARGE ENOUGH TO HELP TO PRODUCE A  
NICE LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA.  
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO  
LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM BEING TOO MUCH.  
 
WE WILL SEE A SHORT RESPITE IN THE RAIN FROM LATER TUE THROUGH MOST  
OF WED BEFORE RAIN MOVES BACK IN LATE WED. A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK  
OF 150+ KNOTS WILL ZIP IN FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND  
DIG A TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA LATER WED THROUGH THU. WE WILL SEE RAIN  
CHCS INCREASE LATER ON WED AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH THE  
SFC FRONT. WE WILL THEN SEE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THU  
WITH THE TROUGH AND UPPER COLD POOL OVERHEAD.  
 
DRIER WX AND MODERATING TEMPS WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE END OF NEXT  
WEEK. EVEN WITH THE SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED FLOW IN PLACE...IT IS RATHER  
PROGRESSIVE WITH A STRONG JET IN PLACE. WE WILL SEE UPPER RIDGING  
BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRI GIVING THE AREA THE DRY WX.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014  
 
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA AS MOST  
SITES HAVE GONE VFR AND WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. CLEARING IS  
STARTING TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA AND WE EXPECT THIS TREND TO  
CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING. THE LAST SITES TO CLEAR WILL LIKELY BE  
KLAN AND KJXN WHERE A NNE FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING CLOUDS OFF OF  
LAKE HURON. AS CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE...WINDS ARE DECOUPLING AND  
THEREFORE DIMINISHING. WE EXPECT NO STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AFTER CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH  
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014  
 
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE SO WE WILL REPLACE THE GALE WARNING  
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH WILL RUN THROUGH 6 PM. EXPECT A  
LULL IN THE WINDS AND WAVES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY THEN THE SFC HIGH  
MOVES EAST AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS WITH WAVES BUILDING  
OVER 4 FEET BY MONDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014  
 
NO HYDRO ISSUES THROUGH MONDAY AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.  
 

 
   
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO  
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO  
LONG TERM...NJJ  
AVIATION...NJJ  
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO  
MARINE...OSTUNO  
 
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