745  
FXUS63 KGRR 161930  
AFDGRR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI  
330 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014  
 
LATEST UPDATE...  
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES THE REST OF THIS  
WEEK... WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS LIKELY FOR EASTER SUNDAY. OUR  
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...  
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. SOME RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON  
EASTER ESPECIALLY NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH BOTH  
OF THESE SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WHICH IS GOOD  
NEWS FOR THE CURRENT FLOODING SITUATION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014  
 
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE STORM TRACKING BY TO OUR WEST TONIGHT AND  
THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS. SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL  
CONTINUE TO PUSH IN DRY AIR WITH SFC DEW PTS OF 15-25. THE DRY AIR  
ADVECTION SHOULD REALLY LIMIT OUR PRECIP CHANCES... ALTHOUGH A  
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD CLIP THE LUDINGTON AREA THURSDAY MORNING.  
ON THURSDAY THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THAT WILL HELP  
SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S.  
 
AS THE SFC LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO ONTARIO ON THURSDAY NIGHT...  
THE COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS LWR MI. A BRIEF FLARE UP IN RAIN  
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ALONG THE FRONT AS A MID LEVEL  
WAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER MODELS KEEP MOST OF  
THE PRECIP LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR WITH LESS THAN  
A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY  
THAN ON THURSDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. SFC HIGH  
PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD NIGHT  
WITH LOWS BELOW FREEZING.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014  
 
THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE  
WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE SMALL SCALE FEATURES. OVERALL  
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES  
MADE.  
 
WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY  
ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF A  
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM SUNDAY  
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING BETWEEN A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH  
CANADA AND THE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THE BOUNDARY WILL  
NOT MOVE SOUTH OUT OF LOWER MICHIGAN UNTIL LATE MONDAY... RESULTING  
IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE  
LONG TERM. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S AND NORMAL LOWS ARE IN  
THE UPPER 30S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014  
 
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS  
WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE  
WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER THE DAYTIME HEATING STOPS. THE WIND WILL  
BE A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014  
 
EVART RIVER LEVELS REMAIN IN RECORD TERRITORY WHILE SCOTTVILLE AND  
CROTON HAVE CONTINUED TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE FLOODING. THE ONLY  
OTHER WARNING OF NOTE IS MOUNT PLEASANT WHICH IS EXPERIENCING MINOR  
FLOODING. THERES BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE SHEER NUMBER OF THE SEVERAL  
REMAINING ADVISORIES STILL OUT.  
 
THERE IS A BIG POSITIVE HERE. RIVER LEVELS HAVE EITHER ALREADY  
REACHED THEIR CRESTS OR ARE CURRENTLY DOING SO...INCLUDING EVART.  
ADDITIONALLY...NO REAL ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE IN THE  
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A QUICK SPRINKLE MAY MIX IN WITH A FLURRY OR  
TWO NORTH OF MUSKEGON TONIGHT. CHANCES ARE MINIMAL. THEN LIGHT RAIN  
IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION  
AMOUNTS NOT HAVING ANY REAL IMPACT.  
 

 
   
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MEADE  
SHORT TERM...MEADE  
LONG TERM...63/JAM  
AVIATION...63  
HYDROLOGY...JAM  
 
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