077  
FXUS63 KGRR 281131  
AFDGRR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI  
731 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
 
LATEST UPDATE...  
AVIATION  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
 
ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS  
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SOME CLOUD COVER FOR MICHIGAN. AN AREA  
OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER PLAINS WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT AND  
WEDNESDAY SCATTERING THE CLOUDS OUT. THE TEMPERATURE WILL END UP  
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
ANOTHER STORM WILL RIDE UP THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY. THIS ONE  
WILL TRACK CLOSER TO THE REGION...AND RESULT IN  
PRECIPITATION...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE MIXED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
 
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH  
THE STORM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  
 
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS FORECASTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STARTING  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK  
UP THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SUPPORT SNOW. AS  
A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL FEATURE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SNOW.  
THE NEW HIGH RES EURO WOULD WARRANT ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY  
TOWARD MOUNT PLEASANT AND HARRISON. THE GFS SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF  
SNOW ...THEN MAYBE FREEZING RAIN TOWARD 00Z FRI FOR THAT SAME  
REGION. WILL FEATURE MAINLY A SNOW TO RAIN SCENARIO FOR MOST OF  
THE REGION. ANY PERIOD OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY AM FOR  
GRAND RAPIDS AND LANSING LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS  
SYSTEM TO BE MOSTLY A RAIN EVENT. IMPACTS AT THIS POINT LOOK  
LIMITED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING...BUT THIS  
SYSTEM BEARS CLOSE MONITORING IN THE COMING DAYS AS THERE IS SOME  
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO END UP COOLER THAN CURRENTLY  
FORECASTED WHICH WOULD RESULT IN IMPACTS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
 
THE BEGINNING AND THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE WETTEST PARTS OF  
THE LONG TERM. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT  
SHOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT  
ACCOMPANIES BY AN UPPER TROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE RAIN.  
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE COOL FEED OF AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST, THE LOW  
LEVELS OF THE NORTHEAST CWA MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD  
OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A FAIRLY  
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM AND WON'T LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE STATE PRODUCING DRY WEATHER FOR  
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY  
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
THE NEXT SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK ISN'T HANDLED AS WELL BETWEEN THE  
MODELS. IT'S ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT GETS BOOTED EAST BY  
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. THE RESULTING PHASING ISN'T REAL CLEAN. AS  
SUCH, MODEL TIMING AND TRACK ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE MAIN  
THEME, THOUGH, IS THAT MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AS THE  
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE ARKLATEX AND MOVES IN A GENERAL NORTHEAST  
DIRECTION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
 
LOW CLOUDS WERE EXPANDING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MI EARLY THIS  
MORNING. BASED ON THE RECENT TRENDS IT LOOKS LIKE THE TAF SITES  
WILL SEE IFR FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE AFTERNOON IS FORECASTED  
TO FEATURE A GRADUAL RISE IN THE CLOUD BASES WITH VFR STILL  
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY EVENING. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY  
THIS AM...WHICH COULD ALSO REDUCE THE VISIBILITY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
 
A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. THUS NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017  
 
MOST RIVERS HAVE DEMONSTRATED WITHIN BANK RISES AFTER RAINFALL OVER  
THE LAST 4 DAYS. HOWEVER, MORE ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS AT IONIA,  
HASTINGS, EAGLE, AND HOLT MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL  
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, POSSIBLY ANOTHER 0.50"-1.00". THIS MAY  
ACT TO PROVIDE SECONDARY RIVER CRESTS HEADING INTO THE END OF THE  
WEEK AND WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT CRESTS.  
 

 
   
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MJS  
SHORT TERM...MJS  
LONG TERM...04  
AVIATION...MJS  
HYDROLOGY...HOVING  
MARINE...MJS  
 
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