275  
FXUS63 KGRR 011150  
AFDGRR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI  
750 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016  
 
LATEST UPDATE...  
AVIATION  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS  
NORTHERN INDIANA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING  
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WE/LL SEE A DECREASING PRECIPITATION TREND  
TODAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN  
TONIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. A  
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL  
ONLY BE IN THE 50S. MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE  
WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016  
 
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS TODAY.  
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER IL/IN MOVING EAST. MUCH  
OF THE PCPN NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE CWA.  
WE/VE DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE DAY BUT ADDED THE MENTION OF  
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AS BUFKIT OMEGA PROFILES SHOWED SOME LIFT IN  
THE CLOUD LAYER.  
 
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER LATE IN THE DAY ANOTHER  
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CWA AND WE/LL SEE SHOWERS MAINLY  
SOUTH OF I-96. THIS SHORT WAVE IS A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM AND WILL BE  
GONE BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN  
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND PROVIDE FOR QUITE A BIT OF  
SUNSHINE.  
 
TODAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY  
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016  
 
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH  
THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A  
FEW ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT... WITH THE BULK OF  
SHOWERS OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.  
 
WEDNESDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A PLEASANT DAY WITH UPPER TROUGH  
DIGGING INTO THE REGION AND -3C AIR AT H8 POURING IN ON THE HEELS OF  
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN  
THE 50S WITH SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE UNDER THE UPR LOW  
AFTER THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVE  
EAST.  
 
THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH TROUGHING PERSISTING  
ALOFT. SOME POP UP SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST  
OF GRR... CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW/COLD POOL WHICH WILL BE OVER THE  
OHIO VALLEY REGION.  
 
IT LOOKS LIKE WE FINALLY TURN THE CORNER TOWARD WARMER WEATHER BY  
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGE AND WARMING ALOFT SPREAD IN FROM  
THE NORTHWEST... LEADING TO TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL  
VALUES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LATEST 00Z MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS 70-  
75 NEXT SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016  
 
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH CIGS BELOW 500 FT  
AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE/MIST REDUCING SFC VSBYS TO 1-3 MILES. SOME  
IMPROVEMENT IN CIG HEIGHTS AND VSBYS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON  
ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINING IFR TO MVFR.  
 
CONDITIONS LIKELY LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR AGAIN TONIGHT AS ANOTHER  
SLUG OF RAIN IMPACTS SRN LWR MI. LIFR MOST LIKELY AT AZO/BTL/JXN.  
 
MKG MAY HAVE HIGHER CIGS/VSBYS THAN THE OTHER TERMINALS TODAY DUE  
TO DOWNSLOPING NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW... AND TONIGHT SINCE THEY  
ARE ONLY CLIPPED BY THE NRN FRINGE OF THE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016  
 
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES  
TODAY...HIGHEST OUT TOWARD THE 5 MILE POINT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016  
 
RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS.  
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY. ADDITIONAL  
RAINFALL INTO MONDAY MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED...  
WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT  
EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...04  
SHORT TERM...04  
LONG TERM...MEADE  
AVIATION...MEADE  
HYDROLOGY...63  
MARINE...04  
 
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