981  
FXUS63 KGRR 250431  
AFDGRR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI  
1231 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014  
 
LATEST UPDATE...  
AVIATION  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014  
 
SOME LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014  
 
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED  
WITH STRONG INFLUX OF DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WILL LEAD  
TO A LATER START TIME FOR RAIN AND ALSO LOWER AMOUNTS OF  
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME SPRINKLES MIGHT BE  
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BUT IF THEY OCCUR THEY SHOULD BE SHORT  
LIVED.  
 
MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND OR  
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH RAIN SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS THE STATE  
THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. OVERALL NOT A LARGE AMOUNT OF RAIN  
EXPECTED...MAYBE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE IN SOME LOCATIONS. HAVE  
ADJUSTED POPS FOR SLOWER TIMING AND ALSO HAVE TRENDED TOMORROW  
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN AND CLOUDS EXPECTED  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  
 
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A  
DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOL WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S  
AND LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014  
 
AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL RULE THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM...WITH  
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND ANOTHER OVER THE PLAINS.  
THIS PUTS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ATLANTIC MOISTURE  
WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVECT INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE PERSISTENT SE  
FLOW...BUT IT WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN  
INCH FOR THIS 36 HOUR PERIOD...A LITTLE HIGHER SW...A BIT LOWER NE.  
THE MINIMAL PCPN SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS IN THE 50S...SO BUMPED UP  
MAX TEMPS A BIT.  
 
EVENTUALLY THE PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT OUR WAY...BUT AS IT DOES  
IT WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH CHANCE  
OR LIKELY POPS WILL BE CARRIED FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME  
FRAME. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A COOL DOWN IN  
TEMPS WED INTO THU.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT RAIN  
WILL SPREAD IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT CEILINGS AND  
VISIBILITIES WILL STAY VFR AS IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO DRY AIR.  
THERE IS A WINDOW OF TIME BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z WHERE SOME MVFR  
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. FIRST...VIA VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN RAIN  
AND THEN SOME CEILINGS THAT WILL DIP BELOW 3000FT. THE RAIN WILL  
END IN THE LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY TOWARD KLAN AND KJXN WITH CLOUDS  
SCATTERING OUT THEREAFTER. VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. IT WILL TURN WINDY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS OF  
15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014  
 
1 TO 3 FOOT WAVES IN GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY  
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS  
TO SMALL CRAFT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014  
 
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE AND THE ONLY SITE STILL ABOVE BANKFULL AS  
OF NOON THURSDAY IS EVART. IT TOO SHOULD FALL BELOW BANKFULL FRIDAY  
NIGHT OR SATURDAY.  
 
RAIN IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH GENERAL AMOUNTS OF  
ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE  
OVERALL FALLING TREND OF THE RIVERS. MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY NEXT  
WEEK BUT NO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR  
LMZ844>849.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO  
SHORT TERM...MACZKO  
LONG TERM...JK  
AVIATION...DUKE  
HYDROLOGY...MEADE  
MARINE...MACZKO  
 
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