476  
FXUS63 KGRR 030718  
AFDGRR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI  
318 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015  
 
LATEST UPDATE...  
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015  
 
A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TUESDAY  
MAINLY EAST OF US 131. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL BE  
FEATURED FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK...ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015  
 
UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY IS FUNNELING IN NW FLOW AND CAA INTO THE  
GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS LOOK TO  
HOLD UP THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH SOME GUSTS ONCE AGAIN OF 20-30  
MPH. ALSO...THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE 5K-10K FT  
LAYER TO SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TODAY  
AND TOMORROW. THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SUPPORTING THIS AND SO DOES  
THE ECMWF. H850 TEMPS OF 10-12C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 70S THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  
 
OTHER THAN THIS...A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG ARE POSSIBLE THIS  
MORNING WITH DEW POINTS STILL HANGING UP AROUND 60F AND WINDS  
GOING CALM. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST GIVEN WE ARE NOT  
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015  
 
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND APPEARS RATHER  
QUIET. NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE WHICH WOULD KEEP US  
COOL...BUT THIS BECOMES MORE ZONAL INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MAY SIGNAL  
A SLIGHT WARM UP.  
 
ONLY CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD APPEARS TO COME ON  
THURSDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE SET UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY  
AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE FRONT. AREAS  
SOUTH OF I-96 STAND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE.  
 
OTHERWISE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN  
GREAT LAKES SUPPLYING MICHIGAN WITH A DRY EASTERLY FLOW. THE MODELS  
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT IT APPEARS THIS  
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WE BEGIN TO WARM. FOR NOW KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT  
INCREASE IN TEMPS AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015  
 
A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSED THROUGH LATE LAST EVENING AND SKIES WHERE  
CLEARING BEHIND IT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE SOME  
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT IT  
APPEARS THAT DEW POINTS WILL BE DROPPING OFF NICELY...SO THE FOG  
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR AND IT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE 06Z  
TAFS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NEXT 24  
HOURS AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN.  
 
WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TOWARD THE NOON HOUR ON MONDAY  
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS...BUT THEN DIMINISH JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015  
 
SCA WILL BE SET TO EXPIRE AT 8AM AND THAT STILL LOOKS TO BE IN  
GOOD SHAPE. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3/2-4 FEET  
DEPENDING ON THE NSH ZONE.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015  
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGED FROM 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH WITH THE  
STORMS LAST NIGHT. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT  
RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL IS  
EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEK.  
 

 
   
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037-  
043-050-056-064-071.  
 
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ844>849.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...HOVING  
SHORT TERM...HOVING  
LONG TERM...JK  
AVIATION...JK  
HYDROLOGY...HOVING  
MARINE...HOVING  
 
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