644  
FXUS63 KGRR 291923  
AFDGRR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI  
323 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016  
 
LATEST UPDATE...  
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/FIREWEATHER/MARINE  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016  
 
ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY IS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY, BEFORE SHOWERS AND  
A FEW STORMS MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.  
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY BEHIND THE  
FRONT. MOST OF, IF NOT THE REST OF THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND SHOULD  
REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.  
 
NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT AT TIMES.  
THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN FROM MID-WEEK ON. MOST AREAS  
WILL BE JUST HOT AND DRY THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016  
 
OUR ATTENTION CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND  
ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. NO REAL CHANGES TO THE  
THINKING AS WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH A LOW  
CHANCE OF THUNDER, AND NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.  
 
WE EXPECT TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AIR MASS IS  
VERY DRY RIGHT NOW WITH SFC DEW POINTS DOWN IN THE 30S FOR SOME  
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL START TO ADVECT IN A SLIGHTLY MORE  
MOIST AIR MASS ON THU WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SW, BUT NOT  
NEARLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAINFALL.  
 
THE RAIN CHCS LOOK TO BE CENTERED ON THU NIGHT. RAIN WILL START  
MOVING IN ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES JUST AFTER 00Z FRI, AND SHOULD BE  
EXITING THE SE COUNTIES JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRI MORNING. THIS IS  
THE TIME WHEN THE 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS THE BEST MOISTURE  
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE WILL A FEW HUNDRED  
J/KG OF CAPE AND LI'S JUST A SHADE BELOW ZERO. THIS LACK OF  
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SEVERE CHANCES DOWN NEAR ZERO.  
 
FRI WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS HANGING IN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WITH  
MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT A BIT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN  
THE AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY NW WINDS BRINGING IN DRIER AIR ONCE AGAIN.  
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FRI NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES,  
A DRY AIR MASS, AND LIGHT WINDS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016  
 
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY. AND IT WILL BE  
INCREASINGLY WARM.  
 
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER  
TROUGH MOVING EAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES  
SATURDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF  
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER, OFFSHORE WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY  
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME UPWELLING AT THE LAKE WHICH MEANS CHILLY  
LAKE TEMPERATURES.  
 
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN...AND IT'S NOT ALL THAT GREAT...WILL COME  
MONDAY SOUTH OF I-96 WHEN LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS IL/IN. WE MAY  
SEE A FEW STORMS BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW.  
 
A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY, BUT CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW.  
 
IT'S QUITE POSSIBLE THAT MANY SPOTS MAY NOT SEE ANY RAIN THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016  
 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LAKE BREEZE  
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT GRR AND DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016  
 
OUR NEXT PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR MARINE INTERESTS WILL BE LATE  
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WE ARE LOOKING AT WINDS INCREASING SOME  
RIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE  
MORE ON FRIDAY AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE  
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL THEN SUBSIDE, LEAVING MOST OF THE HOLIDAY  
WEEKEND WITH BETTER CONDITIONS FOR RECREATION PURPOSES.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016  
 
SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF TO THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL COME TO THE  
AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WE  
ONLY EXPECT AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN, SO THIS WILL  
EVAPORATE QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND. AFTER THAT, RAINFALL CHANCES  
LOOK QUITE LIMITED, AT LEAST UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT WEEK IF NOT LONGER.  
WITH WARMING CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, FIRE DANGER WILL  
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT WEEK, AND COULD BECOME VERY HIGH TO  
EXTREME.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THERE  
IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT  
ANY RAINFALL RECEIVED IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MUCH CHANGE TO  
RIVER LEVELS.  
 

 
   
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MI...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...NJJ  
SHORT TERM...NJJ  
LONG TERM...04  
AVIATION...04  
FIRE WEATHER...NJJ  
HYDROLOGY...MACZKO  
MARINE...NJJ  
 
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