053
FXUS63 KMQT 221150
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
750 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT BRINGS LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION (MAINLY RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW) EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL UP
TODAY.
- A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WORK WEEK WITH
MULTIPLE SYSTEMS BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
- NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT
AND SLOW DOWN THE SNOWMELT ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
EARLY MORNING GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL REMOTE SENSING
TOOLS REVEAL A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTH-EAST ACROSS THE UP.
A STRIPE OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP (BOTH RAIN AND SNOW BEING OBSERVED
HERE AT WFO MQT AS OF WRITING THIS DISCUSSION) IS WORKING ACROSS THE
WEST AND CENTRAL. AS THIS CONTINUES ITS SE PASSAGE EARLY THIS
MORNING, A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY BE SEEN BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW. IMPACTS LOOK TO BE SLIM TO NONE AS THIS COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE DEPARTED THE UP BEFORE SUNRISE. REGARDLESS, HEADS UP
FOR ANY SLICK SPOTS IF TRAVELING THIS SUNDAY MORNING!
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, COOL NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL UP WILL FORCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH, IF NOT LESS THAN A HALF
AN INCH. OTHERWISE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER TODAY WITH
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UP STRUGGLING TO BREAK FREEZING.
COMMUNITIES IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN UP LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 30S. AS 850 TEMPS COOL TO NEAR -13C THIS TONIGHT, A BRIEF
UPTICK IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN ACROSS THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS, THOUGH LAKE INDUCED EQ HEIGHTS IN BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ONLY PUNCH 3-5 KFT WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO
A SHALLOW DGZ, SO NOT THINKING ANY MORE THAN LIGHT SHOWERS WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. SAVE FOR SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS, HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ATOP THE GREAT LAKES / MIDWEST
KEEPING QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IN THROUGH MONDAY.
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK AS A MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS
THEN BREAKS DOWN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, ALLOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW TO TRANSLATE MULTIPLE CLIPPER
SHORTWAVE LOWS INTO THE AREA, WITH THE NEXT ONE LOOKING TO ARRIVE
AROUND THE TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. WET SNOW APPEARS TO BE THE DOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A QUICK 1-2" ACCUMULATION.
MORE ATTENTION MAY NEED TO BE GIVEN TO THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME
WHERE GUIDANCE HINTS AT A MORE COMPACT CLIPPER AND TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT THAT MAY DRIVE ADDITIONAL TRAVEL IMPACTS IN GUSTY WINDS AND
FALLING SNOW. LATEST NBM DOESN'T BODE WELL FOR MUCH SNOW, ONLY
POINTING AT 20-40% CHANCE FOR >2".
WITH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK PROJECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, EXPECT THE FLOODING CONCERNS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA.
WHILE SOME SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED, THE MELT WILL BE SLOWER AND MORE
LIMITED THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOWS REACH BELOW FREEZING
AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING ON SOME DAYS (ALTHOUGH
THE HIGH SUN ANGLE WILL STILL HELP TO MELT THE SNOWPACK ON SUNNIER
DAYS, EVEN IF THE TEMPERATURES FAIL TO COMPLETELY GET ABOVE
FREEZING).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA, WITH
IFR/LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING AT THE TERMINALS. CONDITIONS
WILL SHOW GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS PREVAILING MVFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY TO VFR THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PROMOTES CLEARING SKIES. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
TO 20-25 KT AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
NORTHERLY WINDS 20-30 KTS WILL BE COMMON THIS MORNING BEHIND A
PASSING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THERE IS OVER A 20% CHANCE FOR GALES
UP TO 34 KNOTS THIS MORNING. WINDS DIE DOWN TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS BY
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES SO, EXPECT WINDS TO
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST, WITH UP TO A 25% CHANCE OF
GETTING UP TO LOW-END GALES OVER THE EASTERN LAKE. AFTER THE CLIPPER
LOW MOVES THROUGH AROUND THE TUESDAY TIME PERIOD, EXPECT WINDS TO
VEER NORTHWEST/NORTHERLY AND TO DECREASE BEHIND THE LOW BEFORE
INCREASING FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY VIA THE BACK-
DOOR COLD FRONT; EXPECT FREEZING SPRAY TO RETURN TO THE LAKE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS, POTENTIALLY BECOMING HEAVY AT SPOTS.
AS A SHORTWAVE LOW LIFTS FROM THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER CLIPPER DIGS
TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, EXPECT THE
WINDS TO BECOME EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER, EXPECT THEM TO GENERALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW ON
THURSDAY; THERE IS CURRENTLY UP TO A 40% CHANCE FOR GALES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AND FREEZING SPRAY IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...BW/TAP
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