405  
FXUS63 KMQT 010502  
AFDMQT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI  
102 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
STRONGER STORMS MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.  
 
- ISOLATED AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
OF FRIDAY, THE FOURTH OF JULY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025  
 
OVERHEAD OUR FORECAST AREA, WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE PRESSING THROUGH,  
ALONGSIDE ABOUT 1000J/KG SBCAPE AND 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK  
SHEAR, PER SPC MESOANALYSIS, IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS PROGRESSING WEST  
TO EAST THROUGH WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO THE CENTRAL THIRD. THESE  
WILL CONTINUE GROWING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, WITH  
CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED ALONGSIDE CONTINUED LAKE BREEZE  
ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL/EAST, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS  
SHOULD DEVELOP. GIVEN THAT SHEAR IS IN PLACE AND THERE'S THE  
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZE ENHANCEMENT, LARGE HAIL OR STRONGER WINDS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WEST OF THE BOUNDARY, CLEAR SKIES OR CLEARING  
SKIES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF UPPER MICHIGAN. SPC  
MESOANALYSIS PAINTS THIS CLEAR SKY REGION WITH ~1500J/KG OF SBCAPE  
WITH ABOUT 30KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.  
 
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHT A TROUGH  
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO MINNESOTA WITH AN ATTENDANT WEAK COLD FRONT  
SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN  
MINNESOTA AND THE ARROWHEAD. THIS FRONT MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR  
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE  
WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN GIVEN THE ONGOING DESTABILIZATION.  
SIMILARLY, TO THE CENTRAL AND EAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, STRONG  
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
 
TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL DIVE THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN THIS  
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO UPSTREAM RIDGING  
BUILDING INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. SURFACE RIDGING WILL INCH INTO  
THE REGION ALONGSIDE A DRIER AIRMASS. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION  
PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE  
DRIVING SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH TO OUR NORTH LOOKS TO  
GLANCE THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT,  
BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY FOR A MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S LOOK TO WARM INTO  
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S TUESDAY, THEN COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S  
TO LOW 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025  
 
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW DESCENDING  
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING  
STRETCHING NORTH JUST EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. INITIAL WAVE  
WITH THE DESCENDING TROUGH AXIS WILL DIVE THROUGH THE REGION  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING ALONG THE  
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GROWING INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE LAKE BREEZE MAY  
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WAVE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING  
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS SUGGEST GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF  
THE FOCUS BEING ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF, WITH CHANCES INCREASING INTO  
WISCONSIN. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT THERE IS A WINDOW IN  
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE ENOUGH SHEAR LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO  
SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND STRONGER WINDS  
SHOULD WE DESTABILIZE ENOUGH. ANY ISOLATED OR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE  
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS. SURFACE  
HIGH BUILDS IN AFTERWARDS WHICH WILL LINGER THURSDAY OVERHEAD. THIS  
WILL WORK TO KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY.  
 
FRIDAY, THE 4TH OF JULY, MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH  
THE GREAT LAKES WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES PRESSING THROUGH THE  
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. GEFS 500MB HEIGHT SPAGHETTI PLOTS DEPICT  
ENOUGH VARIANCES TO SUGGEST SOME LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN WHEN THESE  
WILL LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS CONTINUES TO BE REFLECTED IN  
THE GFS, CA, AND EC DETERMINISTIC SUITES AS WELL. ITS POSSIBLE AN  
EARLY WAVE MAY BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING  
AND OR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. 12Z GUIDANCE  
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TIMING COULD RESULT IN IMPACTS TO 4TH OF JULY  
OUTDOOR PLANS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION,  
LATEST LREF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR STRONG TO  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ENOUGH VERTICAL FORCING EXIST, WHICH IS  
UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT. AS WE GET CLOSER, SUSPECT BETTER CONSENSUS OF  
WHEN AND WHERE PEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL  
ALIGN. AFTERWARDS, TIMING AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE  
PRONOUNCED, WITH THE EVENTUAL COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY MOVING THROUGH  
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, SATURDAY  
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND HUMID CONDITIONS  
WITH WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES MAY BE REALIZED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF TODAY AS WEAK  
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS  
EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY BY THE DAYTIME.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025  
 
SW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT  
THIS EVENING. AS THIS MOVES W TO E ACROSS THE LAKE, WINDS VEER W AND  
BECOME ~10-15 KTS ACROSS THE LAKE. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND A DEPARTING  
LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY WILL INCREASE W TO SW TO 15-25 KTS,  
STRONGEST OVER THE W HALF OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL BUILD WAVES UP TO 4  
FT OVER THE N CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE FOR TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS  
SETTLE BELOW 20 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WAVES TO SETTLE  
BELOW 4FT AGAIN. W TO SW WINDS RISE TO ~15-20 KTS AGAIN OVER THE W  
HALF OF THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT (MAINLY 15 KTS  
OR LESS) AND VARIABLE INTO THE LATE PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UPPER MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  
LAKE SUPERIOR...  
NONE.  
LAKE MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JTP  
LONG TERM...JTP  
AVIATION...TAP  
MARINE...PK  
 
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