429  
FXUS63 KMQT 160843  
AFDMQT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI  
443 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2018  
 
A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO HAS  
PROPELLED A COLD FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF UPPER MI  
EARLY THIS MORNING. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MUCAPE VALUES IN  
EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG OUT HAVE SUPPORTED SCATTERED T-STORMS OUT AHEAD  
OF THE FRONT OVER EASTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR AND  
MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THESE STORMS SHOULD BE EXITING LUCE COUNTY  
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.  
 
TODAY, EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR BEHIND THE FRONT  
TODAY. ALSO IT WILL BE WINDIER, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS AMPLE  
SUNSHINE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT GIVE WAY TO SUFFICIENT MIXING IN THE  
AFTERNOON. WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA  
BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT, THESE WINDS WILL BE DOWNSLOPING INTO  
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS  
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S NW WITH ONSHORE FLOW WHILE LOWER  
TO MID 80S WILL BE REACHED SOUTH CENTRAL DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW.  
EXPECT NW WIND GUSTS TO TO REACH UPWARDS OF 25-30MPH, AND PERHAPS  
LOCALLY A BIT HIGHER, WITH 0-3KM LAPSE RATES STEEPENING NICELY IN  
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS COULD CAUSE A MODERATE RISK FOR  
SWIMMING TOWARD EVENING FOR MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTY SHORELINES.  
 
TONIGHT, DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TONIGHT IN  
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 40S INTERIOR  
WEST TO MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH CENTRAL IN CONTINUED NW DOWNSLOPE  
FLOW.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2018  
 
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY  
LOSES SOME OF ITS PUNCH AS IT CROSSES HUDSON BAY INTO QUEBEC ON TUE.  
STILL WILL HAVE A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR TIED TO THE TROUGH  
SWEEP ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON TUE. COOLEST TEMPS IN THE 60S WILL BE  
NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH GRADIENT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS SFC HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  
STRONGER WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A HIGH SWIM  
RISK ON LK SUPERIOR FOR TUE, ESPECIALLY FOR ALGER COUNTY. WITH THE  
HIGH CENTERED ON UPPER MICHIGAN TUE NIGHT, MAY SEE LOWS IN FAVORED  
COLD SPOTS DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S.  
 
THE COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST FOR A LONG TIME THOUGH AS THE EXITING  
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER RETURN FLOW TO UPPER  
MICHIGAN STARTING ON WED. HAVE HIGHS REACHING BACK INTO LOWER 80S  
AWAY FROM LAKE BREEZES BUT HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD STILL BE ON THE  
LOWER SIDE. BASED ON THE CHILLY NIGHT TUE NIGHT AND SUNSHINE/MIXING  
ON WED, LOWERED TD COMPARED TO WHAT MODEL BLENDS GAVE. SEEMS IT WILL  
BE THE DRIEST IN THE INTERIOR EAST CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE  
RIDGE. STRONGER SOUTH WINDS ON WED NIGHT INTO THU SHOULD RESULT IN  
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT THEN TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S  
ALL AREAS AWAY FROM LK MICHIGAN ON THU. SHOULD STAY DRY UNTIL LATE  
THU INTO THU NIGHT WHEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST.  
 
THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM NOW LOOKS TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS  
NORTHERN WI AND UPPER MICHIGAN, WHICH WILL BRING GOOD CHANCE OF  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF UPPER  
MICHIGAN ESPECIALLY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. SINCE THE LOW ONLY SLOWLY  
DRIFTS EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN INTO THE WEEKEND, WILL HAVE LINGERING  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO SAT AND SAT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST  
HALF. TEMPS ON FRI LIKELY WARMEST OVER FAR EAST WITH LATER ARRIVAL  
OF RAIN CHANCES. FARTHER WEST ON FRI WITH BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN AND  
THICKER CLOUDS, READINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HIGHS  
ON SAT SHOULD BE IN THE 70S ACROSS THE BOARD AND WITH BETTER CHANCE  
OF NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, IT COULD STAY IN THE  
60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR. DWPNTS BACK INTO THE 60S WILL LEAD TO MORE  
HUMID CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT, THOUGH AT LEAST TEMPERATURES WILL NOT  
BE IN THE 80S OR 90S WHILE THE DWPNTS ARE HIGHER. SYSTEM BEGINS TO  
LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OF THE WEATHER OVER UPPER MICHIGAN ON SUN, BUT  
STILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN. ECMWF SLOWEST DEPARTING THE  
UPPER SYSTEM WHERE THE GFS AND GEM ARE MOVING IT OUT OF THE AREA BY  
THAT TIME. BASED ON FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF SFC LOW ON FRI, SEEMS  
THAT FRI INTO FRI EVENING WILL BE WHEN THE BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER  
OCCURS. THOUGH ADMITTEDLY A BIT EARLY TO DIAGNOSE, INSTABILITY AND  
SHEAR PROFILES FORECAST ATTM DO NOT SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY  
IN THIS SETUP. ONLY SMALLER CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD OCCUR INTO SAT  
WITH GREATER WARMTH/INSTABILITY STAYING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST CLOSER  
TO THE SFC LOW.  

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2018  
 
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS LATER  
TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL  
CONTINUE WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BY MON AFTERNOON.  

 
   
MARINE
 
(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)  
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2018  
 
LINGERING FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING  
AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE LAKE. NORTH-  
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON,  
BUT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS. BY TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
START TO WORK IN ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR, SO EXPECT THE GUSTIER  
WINDS TO BE CONFINED ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LATER IN THE  
WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING LIGHT WINDS  
ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.  

 
   
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UPPER MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  
LAKE SUPERIOR...  
NONE.  
LAKE MICHIGAN...  
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-  
250.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...VOSS  
LONG TERM...JLA  
AVIATION...07  
MARINE...VOSS  
 
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