729
FXUS63 KMQT 091008
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
508 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER IOWA THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE ITS SLOW EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OFF THE VIRGINIA
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE...THERE WERE
3 MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ORGANIZING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE
CLOSEST LOW WAS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH THE DEEPER LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING. A THIRD LOW...HUGGING THE GULF COAST AND
ATLANTIC COASTLINES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THE LARGE HIGH DIPPING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOWLY BE LOSING ITS
INFLUENCE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...RESIDING OVER THE PLAINS STATES BY
THIS EVENING. EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO SET UP ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. AS THE MAIN
LOW PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...THE PLAINS HIGH WILL BE
ABLE TO SHIFT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLY/UPPER GREAT LAKES.
NORTHERLY WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR -12C THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...IF WINDS BECOME ONSHORE N/NNE QUICKER...OR ANY OF THE
FOLLOWING MENTIONED ITEMS BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING SNOW RATIOS TO BE 13 TO 18:1 ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 900MB. HOWEVER...SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AT
OR ABOVE 700MB. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEDER
FEEDER SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION...WITH THE BEST
SNOW GROWTH SET UP IN THIS HIGHER LAYER TODAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR -10C THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY. AT THAT TIME...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO COOL EVER SO
SLIGHTLY...TO A MORE RESPECTABLE -13C...AND REMAIN NEAR THAT LEVEL
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. OVERALL...THE NOW AMOUNT VALUES DO LINE UP
PRETTY WELL WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH FEW SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES NEEDED...AS MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.
.AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAFS/
AT KCMX...NERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS THROUGHOUT WITH VIS LOWERING TUE MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD STAY MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LIFR CIG THAT CAME IN
EARLIER THIS EVENING WAS A SURPRISE WITH WINDS GOING EAST.
AT KSAW...FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE NE AND WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
BETTER FOR LES ON TUE. BETTER MOISTURE DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE TUE
MORNING/AFTERNOON...SO ONLY WENT TO LOW MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON AND TO
IFR WITH HEAVIER SNOW TUE NIGHT. THE LIFR CIG THAT CAME IN EARLIER
THIS EVENING WAS A SURPRISE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING UNTIL SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COMES IN.
MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR ISSUANCE/
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
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