949  
AXUS73 KABR 111700  
DGTABR  
MNC011-155-SDC013-017-021-025-029-031-037-039-041-045-049-051-057-  
059-065-069-075-085-089-091-107-109-115-117-119-129-131700-  
 
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
1100 AM CST THU JAN 11 2018 /1000 AM MST THU JAN 11 2018/  
   
..DROUGHT CONDITIONS GENERALLY HOLDING STEADY
 
 
SYNOPSIS...  
 
SNOWFALL EVENTS SO FAR THIS WINTER HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LIGHT  
SIDE WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE, DROUGHT CONDITIONS  
HAVE HELD STEADY OVER THE PAST MONTH AND A HALF. TYPICALLY, DROUGHT  
CONDITIONS DO NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH DURING THE WINTER MONTHS UNLESS  
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OCCURS. SNOW PACK ACROSS THE REGION IS  
MINIMAL AS WELL DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENTS.  
 
D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT COUNTIES: WESTERN CORSON  
 
D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT COUNTIES: EASTERN CORSON, DEWEY, STANLEY,  
JONES, CAMPBELL, WALWORTH, POTTER, SULLY, HUGHES, NORTHWEST LYMAN,  
MCPHERSON, EDMUNDS, NORTHWEST FAULK, WESTERN BROWN.  
 
D0 (ABNORMALLY DRY) COUNTIES: EASTERN HUGHES, LYMAN, HYDE, HAND,  
BUFFALO, FAULK, EASTERN BROWN, SPINK, CLARK, MARSHALL, DAY, WESTERN  
CODINGTON, NORTHWEST HAMLIN.  
 
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...  
 
STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS:  
NONE KNOWN.  
 
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS:  
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RELEASE OF THE SOUTH DAKOTA CROP PROGRESS AND  
CONDITION REPRT, THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2017 HAD TOPSOIL MOISTURE  
RATINGS OF 53 PERCENT SHORT OR VERY SHORT. THIS IS A 12 PERCENT  
INCREASE FROM LATE NOVEMBER. SUBSOIL MOISTURE WAS RATED 56 PERCENT  
SHORT OR VERY SHORT. THIS IS A 5 PERCENT INCREASE FROM CONDITIONS  
SEEN IN LATE NOVEMBER.  
 
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS:  
THE LATEST CROP PROGRESS AND CONDITION REPORT RATED WINTER WHEAT  
CONDITIONS AT 36 PERCENT POOR OR VERY POOR.  
 
RIVER AND STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS:  
RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION ARE FROZEN FOR THE WINTER  
SEASON, BUT MOST OF THEM WERE AT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BEFORE  
FREEZING.  
 
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS:  
LACK OF SNOW COVER DURING MUCH OF DECEMBER LED TO SOME DAYS OF  
MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE DANGER WHENEVER HUMIDITY WAS LOW AND WINDS WERE  
STRONG. GRASS FIRES WERE REPORTED WELL INTO DECEMBER WITH FIRE  
WEATHER PLANNING FORECASTS BEING ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE MONTH FROM  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. THIS ACTIVITY RAN MUCH LONGER THAN  
NORMAL DUE TO THE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES WHICH PERSISTED WELL INTO DECEMBER.  
 
CLIMATE SUMMARY...  
 
THE MONTH OF DECEMBER GAVE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS,  
ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AROUND CHRISTMAS, THE PATTERN  
CHANGED TO FAVOR COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHICH HAVE  
GENERALLY PERSISTED INTO JANUARY. SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE SEASON  
CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE.  
 
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...  
 
THE LATEST ONE-MONTH OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CALLS  
FOR HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS FOR  
PRECIPITATION, THERE IS AN INCREASED PROBABILITY FOR BELOW NORMAL  
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE LATEST  
THREE-MONTH OUTLOOK SHOWS A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES. FOR PRECIPITATION, MUCH OF THE AREA SHOWS "EQUAL  
CHANCES" FOR ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHTLY  
HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND FAR NORTHERN  
SOUTH DAKOTA.  
 
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...  
 
THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IN ABERDEEN SHOWS VERY LOW CHANCES FOR MANY OF THE RIVERS  
ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA REACHING FLOOD STAGE IN THE NEXT 90  
DAYS. ALTHOUGH, THE BIG SIOUX RIVER IN THE WATERTOWN AREA HAS A 25  
PERCENT TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE IN THE  
NEXT 90 DAYS.  
 
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...  
 
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND FEBRUARY 11TH OR SOONER IF  
NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.  
 

 
 
RELATED WEB SITES...  
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT  
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES:  
 
US DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU  
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV  
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/DROUGHT  
HIGH PLAINS REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTPS://HPRCC.UNL.EDU  
LOCAL WEATHER INFORMATION...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ABR  
USDA CROP INFORMATION...HTTP://WWW.NASS.USDA.GOV/INDEX.ASP  
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE...HTTPS://CLIMATE.SDSTATE.EDU  
SDSU EXTENSION...HTTP://IGROW.ORG  
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER...HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU/MAP  
 
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...  
 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV  
US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...HTTPS://WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER  
US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS...HTTP://WWW.USACE.ARMY.MIL  
 
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...  
 
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NATIONAL  
WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION,  
THE USDA, STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL  
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN  
GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES, STATE COOPERATIVE  
EXTENSION SERVICES, THE USDA, USACE AND USGS.  
 
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...  
 
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION  
STATEMENT, PLEASE CONTACT:  
 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
TRAVIS TARVER  
824 BROWN COUNTY 14S  
ABERDEEN SD 57401  
PHONE...605-225-0519  
TRAVIS.TARVER@NOAA.GOV  
 

 
TMT  
 
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