067
AXUS73 KFGF 292118
DGTFGF
MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-087-089-107-111-113-119-125-135-159-
167-NDC003-017-035-039-063-073-077-081-091-097-132130-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
318 PM CST THU NOV 29 2012
...THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED PUBLIC DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT FOR 2012. DROUGHT STATEMENTS WILL RESUME AS WE APPROACH
THE SPRING 2013 SNOW MELT SEASON...
SYNOPSIS...
THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT ADDRESSES THE COUNTIES WITHIN THE
GRAND FORKS AREA OF FORECASTING RESPONSIBILITY. CHECK WITH
NEIGHBORING WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS OR MINNESOTA.
RECENTLY...THERE HAS BEEN A DECREASE IN RAIN AND SNOWFALL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. SINCE NOVEMBER 14 THE ONLY PORTION OF THE AREA
TO HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS THE UPPER DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. THE GREATEST DEFICIT IN PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OVER
RANSON...SARGENT AND RICHLAND COUNTIES IN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WILKIN...GRANT AND OTTER TAIL COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA.
THE AREA IMPACTED BY EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES ABOUT THE SAME AS TWO
WEEKS AGO....AND INCLUDES SOUTHERN ROSEAU...EASTERN MARSHALL...
SOUTHWEST LAKE OF THE WOODS AND MUCH OF BELTRAMI COUNTIES IN
MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE SEVERE DROUGHT PERSISTS IN CLAY...NORMAN...
MAHNOMEN...PENNINGTON...RED LAKE AND MOST OF POLK AND CENTRAL
MARSHALL COUNTIES OF MINNESOTA. SEVERE DROUGHT PERSISTS IN
TRAILL...GRIGGS...STEELE...SOUTHEAST NELSON...SOUTHERN GRAND
FORKS...THE NORTHEAST HALF OF BARNES...CASS...RANSON...RICHLAND AND
MOST OF SARGENT COUNTIES OF NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS RANGE FROM
ABNORMALLY DRY IN MUCH OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO MODERATE DROUGHT
IN AREAS NOT SPECIFIED.
SINCE NOVEMBER 9TH...THREE QUARTERS TO INCH PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN
OVER THE NORTHWEST DEVILS LAKE BASIN...MOST OF THAT FALLING AS SNOW
AND THE RESULT OF ONE STORM. THIS REPRESENTS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION THE PAST 2 WEEKS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE EAST THIRD OF
NORTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MINNESOTA TOTAL
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS. GENERALLY THIS IS 5
PERCENT TO 50 PERCENT OF THE AVERAGE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE TWO
WEEKS OF NOVEMBER.
HYDROLOGIC RESPONSES CONTINUE GENERALLY BELOW MEDIAN...SUGGESTING THE
MAJORITY OF THE LIQUID PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ABSORBED INTO THE TOP
SEVERAL INCHES. OBVIOUSLY...SNOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND SUBLIMATES OR
MELTS ONLY VERY SLOWLY. BASED ON DATA PROVIDED BY THE NATIONAL LAND
DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM /NLDAS/ THE RECENT RAIN AND SNOW FALL HAS
BROUGHT SOIL MOISTURE IN THE TOP 3 FEET CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE UPPER DEVILS LAKE AND NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER IT REMAINS DRY...IN THE LOWER 50 TO 70 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY.
BASED ON THE AVAILABLE USGS GROUND WATER DATA THERE HAS BEEN A
CONTINUED VERY GRADUAL DECREASE IN DEEP WATER AVAILABILITY. THE
RECENT RAINS HAVE SATURATED THE TOP FEW FEET IN SOME AREAS BUT
HAS YET TO PERCOLATE FARTHER DOWN. GROUND WATER VALUES ARE
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET BELOW EARLY NOVEMBER MEDIAN VALUES.
THERE ARE NO AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS TO REPORT.
FIRE DANGER HAZARDS
THE INFORMATION BELOW IS PROVIDED BY THE RESPECTIVE STATE
AGENCIES RESPONSIBLE FOR FIRE WEATHER MONITORING AND FIRE SAFETY.
CHECK WITH THE RESPECTIVE STATE WEB PAGES FOR DAILY UPDATES...
WILDFIRES...BURN RESTRICTIONS AND FIRE DANGER RATINGS. CONDITIONS
ARE UPDATED DAILY SO REFER BACK TO THE STATE AND LOCAL AGENCIES
OFTEN.
ALSO...CHECK THE NWS GRAND FORKS FIRE WEATHER PAGE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/FORECAST/FIREWX.PHP
AS OF NOVEMBER 29TH 2012...THE MINNESOTA DNR INDICATES THE FIRE
DANGER WAS LOW ACROSS ALL OF OUR MINNESOTA COUNTIES.
ACCORDING TO THE NORTH DAKOTA DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY...
BURN RESTRICTIONS ARE CURRENTLY POSTED IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FOR THE SPIRIT LAKE TRIBAL LANDS IN EASTERN BENSON AND GRAND FORKS
COUNTIES.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC HAS SENT A
SERIES OF STORMS INTO THE WESTERN US. A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE HAS KEPT MOST STORM SYSTEMS WEST AND
NORTH OF THE GRAND FORKS AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. AS A RESULT...SINCE
EARLY NOVEMBER THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN HAS BEEN VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL
ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THE NORMAL CLIMATIC VARIABILITY AND
PRECIPITATION PATTERNS THE MORE MOIST AREAS ARE A BIT COOLER WHILE
THE DRIEST AREAS A BIT WARMER. AS INDICATED BEFORE MOST OF EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA HAS SEEN SUB-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION THE PAST MONTH.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT TO THE
EAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN CANADA
AND THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TREND TOWARD A MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PATTERN AS WE GET INTO DECEMBER AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED
RISK FOR MEDIAN TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION.
THE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR DECEMBER 2012
THROUGH FEBRUARY 2013 CALLS FOR AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. TYPICALLY THIS SUGGESTS MORE FREQUENT COLD
SNAPS AND FEWER WARM-UP PERIODS IN BETWEEN. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
TO BE WITHIN THE NORMAL CLIMATIC RANGE THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
AS INDICATED ONLY MINOR HYDROLOGIC RESPONSES HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH
THE RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL. MOST RAINFALL OR SNOW-MELT HAS
BEEN ABSORBED AS SOILS ARE STILL DRY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
PERCOLATION.
BASED ON LIMITED GROUNDWATER SENSORS FROM THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL
SURVEY WATER TABLES ARE GENERALLY STABLE. THIS SUGGESTS SOME OF
THE RECENT RAINS AND SNOWS ARE PERCOLATING DEEPER INTO THE SOILS.
THE NOVEMBER 26TH FORECASTS FROM THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICES/AHPS/ SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN BASE FLOWS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. BARRING AN UNEXPECTED RAINFALL OR HEAVY SNOW AND EARLY
MELT CYCLE...THE AHPS RUNS SUGGEST THE BELOW NORMAL RIVER FLOWS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FEBRUARY 2013.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED PUBLIC DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
FOR 2012. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED AS WE APPROACH THE SPRING
2013 SNOW-MELT WHICH IS TYPICALLY IN LATE FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH. A
STATEMENT WOULD BE ISSUED SOONER IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
CONDITIONS.
RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTP://MCC.SWS.UIUC.EDU
HIGH PLAINS REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTP://WWW.HPRCC.UNL.EDU
MINNESOTA STATE CLIMATOLOGIST...HTTP://CLIMATE.UMN.EDU
ND STATE CLIMATOLOGIST...HTTP://WWW.NDSU.NODAK.EDU/NDSU/NDSCO
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE...HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS
BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE
COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
4797 TECHNOLOGY CIRCLE
GRAND FORKS ND 58203
PHONE...701-772-0720 X327
MARK.EWENS@NOAA.GOV
EWENS
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