062  
FNUS73 KDLH 201716  
FWSDLH  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR LOW BUSH PRESQUE ISLE TOMBOLO...NPS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
1216 PM CDT FRI OCT 20 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 CDT ON OCTOBER 20.  
IF THERE ARE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST...  
PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THIS WILL BE CHALLENGING FORECAST SINCE THE LOCATION WILL BE OUT  
INTO THE LAKE, AND MODELING AND DATA IS POORER OVER THE LAKE.  
PLEASE UNDERSTAND THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW, AND DO  
NOT HESITATE TO PROVIDE TO REQUEST US FOR UPDATES.  
 
IT WILL BE A SUNNY AND RELATIVELY WARM DAY. BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW  
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT THE AIR TO COOL OFF AND  
GET MORE HUMID AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE MAINLAND TO STOCKTON  
ISLAND, BUT HOW MUCH IS THE CHALLENGING QUESTION.  
 
TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH MORE HUMID, AND SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY, AND THEN LIKELY LATE SATURDAY.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.  
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH  
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH LATE IN  
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 17 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 20 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (10000-19300 KNOT-FT).  
 
TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY COVER.......CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............63 66 68 69 68 66  
RH..............65 62 60 58 55 58  
20 FT WIND DIR..SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 10 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.12 12 13 15 16 17  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 20 20 20 20 20  
SDSPL KT-FT/100010 19 16 12 8 8  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS 30 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.  
MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND  
15 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN DECREASING TO  
AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 26  
MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 25 TO 30 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (7500 KNOT-FT).  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY COVER.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY  
WEATHER COV..... S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............64 63 60 60 59 58  
RH..............60 62 65 72 72 80  
20 FT WIND......S 10 S 10 S 15 S 10 S 10 S 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.17 21 26 25 22 19  
MIX HGT (FT)....400 300 300 300 300 300  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 25 S 25 S 30 S 30 S 25 S 25  
SDSPL KT-FT/10007 7 6 7 7 6  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE  
DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON,  
THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.  
MIN HUMIDITY........77 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND  
20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 25 TO 35 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (6000-25900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO  
GOOD (33500-50700 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE MORNING.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY COVER.......MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD  
TEMP............58 58 59 61 64 64  
RH..............82 83 82 79 77 78  
20 FT WIND......S 10 S 10 S 10 S 10 S 10 S 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.19 21 21 20 19 18  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 500 1000 1500 1700 1700  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 25 S 25 S 30 S 30 S 35 S 35  
SDSPL KT-FT/10006 12 26 42 51 50  
 

 
FORECASTER...GEOFF  
REQUESTED BY...DAVE PERGOLSKI  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1717626.0/DLH  
.EMAIL DAVID.PERGOLSKI@BIA.GOV  
 
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