666  
FNUS73 KMPX 081301  
FWSMPX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR LAKE JOHANNA...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
801 AM CDT TUE AUG 8 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON AUGUST 08.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH SW TO W WINDS,  
INCREASING TO UP TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80  
WITH DEW POINTS STAYING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THROUGH THE DAY.  
THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE, BUT NOT UNTIL  
MID AFTERNOON.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.  
TEMPERATURE.........73 AT IGNITION...MAX 80.  
RH..................57 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 44 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE  
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7100-7200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 12 MPH.  
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 7 TO 12 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD /34000 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD  
/34000 KNOT-FT/ INCREASING TO GOOD TO EXCELLENT  
(53100-72200 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE MORNING.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW AT IGNITION...MAX 4.  
 
TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM  
TEMP............73 75 77 78 78 79 79 78  
RH..............57 52 47 45 45 44 44 47  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.4 5.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12  
MIXING WIND DIR.W W W W SW SW SW SW  
MIXING WIND SPD.12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
SDSPL KT-FT/100034 53 72 72 72 72 72 71  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 60.  
RH..................MAX 90 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 12 MPH.  
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 8 TO 12 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO EXCELLENT (25100-63300 KNOT-FT)  
DECREASING TO POOR (1800 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
 
TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM  
TEMP............77 70 65 63 61 60  
RH..............50 66 78 84 87 90  
20 FT WIND......S 6 S 5 S 5 S 5 S 4 S 4  
20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5  
MIX HGT (FT)....7000 2500 300 300 300 300  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 10 S 12 S 12 S 12 S 9 S 8  
MIXING WIND.....SW 10 S 12 S 12 S 12 S 9 S 8  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 4 5  
SDSPL KT-FT/100063 25 3 3 2 2  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 75.  
RH..................MIN 64 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY  
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600-4100 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO  
4700-6000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO  
3500 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 20  
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 20  
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (2000-35800 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO  
GOOD TO EXCELLENT (59400-99600 KNOT-FT) LATE IN  
THE MORNING.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO OR MODERATE.  
 
TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM  
TEMP............61 67 72 74 75 74  
RH..............90 78 71 66 64 66  
20 FT WIND......S 4 S 6 S 6 S 7 S 8 S 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 15 15 15  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 800 2600 5600 5900 4700  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 9 S 13 S 16 SW 18 SW 20 SW 20  
MIXING WIND.....S 9 S 13 S 16 SW 18 SW 20 SW 20  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 4 4 4  
SDSPL KT-FT/10002 8 36 90 100 81  
 

 
FORECASTER...DEVINNY  
REQUESTED BY...MATT GRAEVE  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1714052.0/MPX  
.EMAIL MGRAEVE@TNC.ORG  
 
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