833
FXUS63 KABR 090927
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
327 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
COMPACT UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
REGION ALONG THE NE/IA BORDER. TEMPS HAVE STAYED UP OVERNIGHT DUE
TO THE CLOUDS AND WRAP AROUND WAA. ALTHOUGH...TEMPS ARE FINALLY
STARTING TO DROP OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS BETTER LOW
LEVEL CAA HAS TAKEN OVER. VERY LIGHT SNOW IS LINGERING OVER THE
AREA BUT EXPECT THIS TO DIMINISH/MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH ONLY A TRACE TO A COUPLE TENTHS ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE REGION AND WINDS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WILL THEREFORE CANCEL ALL
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.
FOR TODAY...WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA BUT AS THE DAY GOES ON
EXPECTING MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE FRESH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND...WILL BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND HAVE
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM REMAINS
DRY BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS ANY SNOW WILL AFFECT MAINLY
NORTH DAKOTA BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CWA IN ANOTHER SET OR TWO OF MODEL RUNS.
LONG TERM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAINLY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE DOMINATED
BY HIGH PRESSURE AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH DIVES SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA AND BECOMES SITUATED OVER THE PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY JUST BEFORE THE HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO
AHEAD AND INTRODUCE A SCHC POP FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE A BIT TRICKY. H85 TEMPS AND GUIDANCE
TRYING TO INDICATE A BIT OF A WARM UP...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD. STILL FEEL THAT WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND
THAT THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL BE UNACHIEVABLE. WILL STICK WITH
TEMPERATURES A GOOD FIVE DEGREES OR SO BELOW GUIDANCE.
AVIATION
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BY
THIS AFTERNOON...MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...MAINLY FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. PERIODS OF VERY
LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL...BUT VSBYS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR OR BETTER.
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
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