505  
FXUS63 KABR 171127 AAA  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
627 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018  
 
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018  
 
SATELLITE REVEALS AREAS OF FOG HAVING FORMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE  
HOURS IN THE JAMES VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE GLACIAL LAKES REGION.  
BEEN MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO WX GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE  
TRENDS. AT THIS POINT IN KABR, THE FOG REMAINS VERY SHALLOW AND  
UNLESS THINGS THICKEN UP, THE FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER  
SUNRISE.  
 
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW SMOKE  
IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THERE  
HAS BEEN SOME NOTED ACROSS ND, AND THE HRRR SMOKE MODEL INDICATES  
THE POSSIBILITY OF SMOKE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. FOR THE  
TIME BEING, SMOKE WAS LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS/FORECAST AND WILL  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THIS IS A LOW IMPACT SITUATION. PLUS, WOULD  
LIKE TO SEE SURFACE OBS BEGIN TO SHOW VISIBILITY REDUCTION BEFORE  
GETTING TOO EXCITED ABOUT ADDING A SMOKE MENTION INTO THE GRIDS.  
 
AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT, LIGHT  
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH, WINDS STILL LOOK LIGHT  
ENOUGH TO SIDE WITH THE COOLER END OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY  
OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018  
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXIT THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, TO  
BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY SATURDAY  
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN  
ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.  
THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO GET DAMPENED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH  
ON THURSDAY.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND  
MINNESOTA SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER MONTANA/WYOMING.  
AS BOTH SYSTEMS SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD, PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH  
THE LOW WILL REACH THE WESTERN CWA SATURDAY EVENING, THEN LOOKS TO  
AFFECT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY  
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH AND PUSHES THE  
RAIN OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE LIMITED, SO THOUGH  
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION  
TO BE MAINLY SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE THE  
DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE REGION, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED  
MONDAY INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES  
DURING THE DAY, AND MAY BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THURSDAY  
NIGHT.  
 
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE  
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN WITH THE  
PRECIPITATION, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
WILL THEN SEE A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS BACK INTO 80S WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018  
 
FG/BR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KATY THROUGH ABOUT 14Z OR 15Z, THEN  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS  
ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...TMT  
SHORT TERM...TMT  
LONG TERM...PARKIN  
AVIATION...TMT  
 
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