760  
FXUS63 KABR 201139 AAA  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
639 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2017  
 
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2017  
 
STARTING TO SEE VSBY DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS AREAS OF FOG  
DEVELOP. HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH  
NEARLY CALM WINDS. WET SOILS AS WELL FROM YESTERDAY'S PRECIPITATION.  
HAD ALREADY INSERTED FOG INTO THE FORECAST SEVERAL HOURS AGO AS MANY  
OF THE MODELS WERE SUGGESTING IT. STARTING TO SEE IT PAN OUT AS A  
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EAST ARE GETTING DOWN TO AROUND 1SM.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MN AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TODAY WILL  
KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY UNDER A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. ONLY  
EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE A FEW SHOWERS OR  
STORMS MAY SNEAK IN AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY OFF TO THE SOUTH. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN.  
SEEMS AS IF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO WESTERN SD  
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE TROUGH. CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR CWA  
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD AND  
A BIT OF A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. NOT CONFIDENT AT ALL ON PLACEMENT  
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY, SO WILL KEEP BROAD-BRUSHED POPS IN  
AT THIS TIME. WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE  
EASTERN CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND  
SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONCE  
AGAIN. BUT, THERE IS STILL LITTLE CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS  
TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS.  
 
SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AS BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BRING IN DRIER AIR.  
DEWPOINTS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 50S BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN  
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S. INCREASED WINDS A BIT ABOVE  
SUPERBLEND ON SATURDAY GIVEN A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2017  
 
THE LONG TERM BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS  
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA HEADING  
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PUTS OUR  
AREA IN COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH CORRESPONDING NORTHERLY  
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA  
AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE,  
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM WITH UPPER 70S  
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY END UP BEING EVEN  
COOLER AS WE HAVE BEEN A LITTLE TOO WARM ON SOME OF THESE COOL  
PUSHES OF AIR LATELY, ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS SOME STRATUS CLOUDS.  
OTHERWISE, THE MODELS ALL SHOW THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BUILDING INTO  
THE CENTRAL U.S. FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING VERY WARM/HOT  
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION. MONDAY MAY STILL BE BELOW NORMAL  
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO JUST ABOVE TO  
NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE  
CWA. WITH THE EXPECTED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH RECENT  
TEMPERATURES UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, EXPECT WE WILL HAVE TO RAISE  
HIGHS SEVERAL MORE DEGREES AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME. MORE 90S  
MAY BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE  
REGION LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL  
THEN BE A FEW CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2017  
 
LIFR/IFR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AT  
ABR, ATY, AND MBG. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT  
AT ALL LOCATIONS. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MAY  
AFFECT THE STATIONS AT OR IN THE VICINITY.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...MOHR  
SHORT TERM...TMT  
LONG TERM...MOHR  
AVIATION...MOHR  
 
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