466  
FXUS63 KABR 210236 AAB  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
936 PM CDT WED SEP 20 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT WED SEP 20 2017  
 
QUIET NIGHT AND THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. SEEING SOME INCREASING  
CLOUD COVER NEARING THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST  
AREA, BUT OVERALL A CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT SHOULD BE  
MAINTAINED. A SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT,  
PERHAPS PICKING UP SOME TOWARD SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. DESPITE THE  
DRY SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE AIR AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKY, NOT  
EXPECTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES TUMBLE OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY, LOWS IN  
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S BY MORNING STILL LOOKS OKAY.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT WED SEP 20 2017  
 
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED SEP 20 2017  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS AN  
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO  
INTENSIFY AND PUSH EASTWARD. BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE LOW  
WILL BE CENTERED OVER COLORADO WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING  
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY  
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING WARMER AIR UP  
INTO THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S, WITH HIGHS ON  
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED SEP 20 2017  
 
THE LONG TERM WILL CHARACTERIZED AS A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD. POSITIVE  
TILT WESTERN CONUS MID LEVEL TROF WILL COME OUT IN PIECES THROUGH  
THE PERIOD. FIRST CHUNK OF ENERGY COMES OUT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY  
NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD SHEAR/INSTABILITY, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST  
OF THE I29 CORRIDOR, SO SPC SLIGHT RISK LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. AFTER  
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE ENTIRE MEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES A BIT  
FURTHER EAST, TAKING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE ENERGY WITH  
IT, THUS SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS FAIRLY MINIMAL BEYOND ABOUT 60 TO 72  
HOURS.  
 
SEVERALS WAVES OF ENERGY ALOFT AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL  
SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. THE FIRST EVENT SHOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT  
INTO SUNDAY. THE SECOND EVENT SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO  
MONDAY, BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY DISPLACED SOUTHEAST OF THE FIRST HEAVY  
RAIN BAND.  
 
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THEY WILL LIKELY START OUT ABOVE NORMAL EARLY  
IN THE PERIOD, BUT THEN TREND TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AS  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT WED SEP 20 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON  
ON THURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR  
BETWEEN 1000FT AND 2000FT AGL LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY  
MORNING AS ANOTHER STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...DORN  
SHORT TERM...PARKIN  
LONG TERM...TDK  
AVIATION...DORN  
 
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