922  
FXUS63 KABR 251147 AAA  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
647 AM CDT WED APR 25 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT WED APR 25 2018  
 
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR 12Z TAFS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED APR 25 2018  
 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SURFACE  
RIDGE IS IN PLACE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HINTS OF FOG ALONG  
THE MISSOURI RIVER ACROSS LYMAN/BUFFALO COUNTIES, SO HAVE INCLUDED A  
MENTION OF PATCHY UP THROUGH SUNRISE. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP  
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER THE SUN COMES UP.  
 
FOR LATER TODAY, LOOKING AT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AS THE  
SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH. WILL ALSO SEE 925/850 MB TEMPS ON THE  
INCREASE, WITH GOOD MIXING WINDS WITHIN A DRY AIR MASS. THE STAGE IS  
SET FOR GOOD WARMING TODAY, AND WENT ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE IN REGARDS  
TO TEMPERATURES. SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST WE COULD MIX DOWN SOME DRIER  
AIR ALOFT, AND IT WOULD APPEAR TODAY IS ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE WE  
COULD END UP WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS/RH THAN EXPECTED. THIS WOULD BE A  
SLAM DUNK CASE IN A PROLONGED DRY/DROUGHT PATTERN, BUT WITH OUR  
WETTER PATTERN RECENTLY, AND THE FACT THAT MOBRIDGE RECEIVED NEARLY  
AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY, WONDER IF THE RESULTS WILL BE A BIT  
DIFFERENT. NONETHELESS, DID LOWER DEWPOINTS A BIT FROM BLENDED/MOS  
GUIDANCE. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS ARE  
EVEN LOWER THAN FORECAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD, BUT FEEL THEY ARE  
PROBABLY A DRY BIAS. CURRENT FORECAST RH ACTUALLY FALLS TO AROUND 20  
PERCENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD, WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.  
BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS, BUT CONSENSUS AMONGST NEIGHBORS WAS  
TO HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES AND CONVEY HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER IN OTHER  
PRODUCTS/SOCIAL MEDIA. CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW LOW DEWPOINTS WILL GET  
IS LOW, GIVEN THE RECENT WET PATTERN AND YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL. IF  
CONDITIONS APPEAR THEY WILL REACH CRITERIA BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON, A  
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED.  
 
LOOKING TOWARDS TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS THE  
REGION, WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. INCREASED WIND  
SPEEDS A BIT OVERNIGHT AS SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME RATHER  
GUSTY WINDS IMMEDIATELY POST-FRONTAL. IT ALSO APPEARS WE WILL HAVE  
SOME ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE WINDS FOR A BIT TONIGHT AS WELL, BUT NOTHING  
TOO MAJOR. FOLLOWED HI-RES GUIDANCE IN THE SISSETON HILLS/COTEAU  
REGION.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED APR 25 2018  
 
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BRINGING  
MAINLY DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.  
THE PERIOD BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE ONLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE  
DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH BREEZY/WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND AN  
EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THE MODELS THEN SHOW A  
SHARP UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.  
PROGRESSING SLOWLY EAST AND INTO OUR REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE A  
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.  
AFTER A MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S BELOW NORMAL DAY ON THURSDAY, ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO WARM INTO  
THE WEEKEND AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE UNDER THE HIGH  
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING IN. INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY  
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAYBE SOME 80 DEGREE READINGS ON SUNDAY AND EVEN  
MONDAY. THE MODELS SHOW SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY KICKING OUT OF THE  
SOUTHWEST LOW PRESSURE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY  
MAYBE BRINGING US SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT THIS TIME,  
HAVE A FEW SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES IN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE,  
IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL COOL DOWN AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES  
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT WED APR 25 2018  
 
KATY WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY THIS MORNING IN  
BR. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF  
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL SWITCH TO THE  
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...TMT  
SHORT TERM...TMT  
LONG TERM...MOHR  
AVIATION...TMT  
 
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