949  
FXUS63 KABR 291132 AAA  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
632 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017  
 
SEE BELOW FOR AN AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017  
 
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW  
OVER ONTARIO WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. COOLER AIR AND  
CLOUDS ALSO SPREADING SOUTHWARD CURRENTLY, AND WONDER IF THIS MAY  
LIMIT INSTABILITY A BIT TODAY. SO, ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER  
ROUND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS, THEY LIKELY  
WILL NOT PACK THE PUNCH AS YESTERDAY'S ACTIVITY. INTERESTING TO NOTE  
THOUGH THAT WE DO SEE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN, BUT SUB CLOUD  
DRY LAYER IS SHALLOWER THAN YESTERDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL  
BE BLOWING ONCE AGAIN, AND THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY.  
 
LARGE, COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES IN RIGHT ON TOP OF  
THE AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER DRY AIR  
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, SO EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. IF  
THERE IS ANY CLOUD COVER, IT'S PROBABLY JUST THIN CIRRUS. KEPT THE  
TREND OF GOING COLDER THAN SUPERBLEND FOR TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS. STUCK  
CLOSE TO THE STRAIGHT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WHICH HAS LOWS IN THE UPPER  
30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.  
 
SURFACE HIGH MOVES AWAY ON WEDNESDAY, MAKING WAY FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS  
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL START A TREND OF WARMING WHICH  
WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017  
 
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF TIME PERIODS IN THE OUT PERIODS STILL SHOWING  
UP WITH LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STRANGELY ENOUGH, THEY HOVER  
AROUND A DIRTY RIDGE ALOFT (HIGHER/WARMER HEIGHTS). WEDNESDAY NIGHT,  
WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY WORKING EAST IS STILL BACK OVER  
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES FRONT RANGE, LEE-SIDE TROFFING AND  
A LOW LEVEL JET ARE IN PLAY ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IF  
ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FORCING/LIFT CAN COME  
TOGETHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THERE COULD BE SOME  
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND. GFS/EC/CANADIAN MODELS POINT TO A  
DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION FRIDAY INTO  
SATURDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WARMEST LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPS  
WILL BE AROUND. ALTHOUGH MODELS GENERATE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE  
WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY EVENING, MOST OF THE REGION WILL PROBABLY BE  
CAPPED AND PRECIP-FREE. WHEN UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY BARRELS INTO THE  
WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HEADING INTO SATURDAY/SATURDAY  
NIGHT, HEIGHTS ARE FALLING/TEMPS ARE BEGINNING TO COOL A BIT, AND  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SEEM A BIT MORE REALIZE-ABLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG  
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE DAKOTAS MID-  
WEEKEND. 00Z DETERMINISTIC THERMAL PROGS AND SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL  
TEMPERATURE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SUPPORTS WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGH  
TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD, WITH READINGS  
FALLING BACK DOWN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017  
 
VFR FLYING WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD  
AT PIR AND MBG. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS (GENERALLY 2500FT AGL TO 4500FT  
AGL) TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH BY LATE THIS MORNING, AFFECTING  
MAINLY ABR AND ATY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS  
ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH AND WILL SWEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST  
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, AGAIN, MAINLY AFFECTING ABR AND ATY  
TERMINALS. LOOK FOR BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AGAIN TODAY.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...DORN  
SHORT TERM...TMT  
LONG TERM...DORN  
AVIATION...DORN  
 
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