846  
FXUS63 KABR 260959  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
459 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 458 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017  
 
MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE UPPER CIRCULATION OVER THE  
REGION AND WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. CURRENTLY  
SEEING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHEAST SD INTO WEST  
CENTRAL MN. STILL ENOUGH OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT TO BRING SOME BRIEF  
PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS WELL, BUT  
EXPECT THIS TREND TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE  
COLUMN CONTINUES TO COOL. INCREASED POPS AND SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS THE  
AREA BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS. COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 3 OR 4  
INCHES PERHAPS ACROSS NORTHERN BROWN COUNTY ALONG THE ND BORDER, AS  
WELL AS EAST OF THERE INTO MARSHALL COUNTY. ISSUED AN SPS EARLIER  
THIS MORNING TO HIGHLIGHT MIXED PRECIP WITH SNOW ACCUMS. WILL  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES  
TO DEAL WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.  
MODELS AGREE PRETTY WELL IN BRINGING WRAP-AROUND SNOWFALL INTO THE  
COTEAU REGION BACK WEST THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY.  
 
ONCE THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS TONIGHT, CONDITIONS LOOK MOSTLY QUIET  
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM, ALBEIT RATHER CHILLY STILL. ONLY  
SEEING HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHICH IS  
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND  
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DROPPING INTO THE 20S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 458 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017  
 
NO NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE OUT PERIODS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. 00Z  
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS, ALTHOUGH TRENDING WARMER  
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, STILL HIGHLIGHT COLDER THAN NORMAL  
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SD AND WC MN HEADING INTO  
THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY. THE LATEST 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK IS ALSO STILL  
SHOWING A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE  
AVERAGED OVER THAT WEEK 2 TIMEFRAME ACROSS THIS REGION. AS FAR AS  
WEATHER CONCERNS GO IN THE OUT PERIODS, THE FORECAST IS DRY UNTIL  
SUNDAY. STILL EYEING UP A WEATHER SYSTEM THAT THE 00Z ECMWF AND GEM  
SHOWED A FAIR AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT CONCERNING FOR LATE IN THE DAY  
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE TWO MODELS (AND TO A LESSER  
DEGREE THE GFS, TOO) BRING A LARGE WOUND UP SYSTEM OUT OF THE FOUR  
CORNERS REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND LIFT IT NORTHEAST OVER THE  
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY. CURRENTLY, IT APPEARS A  
PORTION OF THE EASTERN OR SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST ZONES COULD GET INTO  
SOME OF THE DEFORMATION/TROWAL-ZONE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017  
 
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY  
WEDNESDAY. A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE  
FAR EASTERN CWA, WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN, FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW  
EXPECTED THROUGH MID-DAY WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO  
EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO LIFT  
TO VFR LEVELS ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR  
SDZ006>008-011.  
 
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...TMT  
LONG TERM...DORN  
AVIATION...DORN  
 
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