472  
FXUS63 KABR 242337 AAA  
AFDABR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
637 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG CHANCES.  
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT MORE FOG TO FORM GIVEN LITTLE TO NO DRY AIR  
ADVECTION AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN  
OUT/DISSIPATE OVER THE EAST THIS EVENING, BUT MAY NOT COMPLETELY  
FALL APART.  
 
COULD BE A REPEAT OF FOG SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM  
THE WEST MAY PUT THE KIBOSH ON THAT AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAM OUT  
EAST A HEAD OF THE SYSTEM. SPEAKING OF THAT SYSTEM, FROM A PV  
ANOMALY/ENERGY PERSPECTIVE, IT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT  
STRONG. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THAT ENERGY MAY NOT MAKE IT EAST OF  
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES  
OVERALL WILL FAVOR NEAR OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE LACK  
OF ANY COLD AIR FEED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE  
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS A GENERAL  
AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW  
PATTERN, THEY DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES.  
PCPN CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE  
CONNECTION TO THE MORE ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET. THE FIRST SYSTEM TO  
CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT IS A BIT DISCONNECT TO THE SOUTHERN  
JET. THUS, THIS SYSTEM MAY PASS THROUGH THE REGION MOSTLY DRY.  
ANOTHER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT LACKS LLM AS WELL  
WITH A MOSTLY DRY PASSAGE POSSIBLE. A THIRD STORM SYSTEM LOOKS  
POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN  
THE LONG TERM IS LOW WITH REGARDS TO PCPN CHANCES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT  
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE FAR EASTERN CWA, WHERE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO FOG ARE  
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...PARKIN  
SHORT TERM...TDK  
LONG TERM...SD  
AVIATION...PARKIN  
 
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