931  
FXUS63 KARX 251130  
AFDARX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI  
630 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED 500 MB LOW SITS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
EARLY THIS MORNING, PROGGED TO TAKE A SOMEWHAT SLOW TREK NORTHEAST  
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER  
FRONTOGENETIC/THERMODYNAMIC FORCING HAS SHIFTED EAST, AS HAS THE  
UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT. THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE  
TRANSPORT HAS ALSO MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. ALL THAT SAID, STILL HAVE  
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS VARIOUS RIPPLES/SPOKES OF ENERGY TO  
ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY. NAEFS PW ANOMALIES  
STILL +1 TO +2. PLENTY OF SATURATION TO PLAY WITH. EXPECT THE  
SHOWERS TO PERSIST, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF  
SUNDAY. WOULD NORMAL EXPECT MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE  
NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH THE WEAK FORCING, BUT THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST  
AIRMASS, COULD STILL RESULT IN 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS FOR SOME.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
 
VARIABLE PATTERN AT THE MOMENT FOR NEXT WEEK WITH THE  
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BOTH COMING INTO  
PLAY......OR NOT. SOUTHERN STREAM LOOKS FAIRLY ACTIVE, WITH BOTH THE  
GFS AND THE EC MOVING AT LEAST TWO 500 MB TROUGHS FROM THE DESERT  
SOUTHWEST TO THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THEY DIFFER IN  
TIMING AND PLACEMENT. LATEST EC MORE AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO SOME  
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION FOR THU -  
RESULTING IN A WET DAY. THE GFS IS SOUTH. ON THE OTHERHAND, THE GFS  
WOULD SUGGEST MORE ACTION LOCALLY FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH, DROPPING  
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS-UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
RIVER VALLEY FRI NIGHT-SAT. THE GFS...STAYS NORTH. VOLATILE,  
SPRINGISH PATTERN WHICH WILL LIKELY SWING BACK AND FORTH IN THEIR  
POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS/OUTCOMES UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL DAY.  
WILL LET THE CONSENSUS CONTINUE TO DETAIL THE PCPN CHANCES.  
 
AS FOR TEMPS, AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH STILL LOOKS ON TRACK  
FOR NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
 
LOW STRATUS AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE  
DURATION OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT CEILINGS AT KRST TO GENERALLY  
REMAIN IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE TODAY WHILE KLSE WILL BE  
MVFR AND POSSIBLY DIP INTO IFR AT TIMES. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE  
LATER TODAY, MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT KLSE THIS AFTERNOON. IN  
ADDITION, ENE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS TODAY. BY TONIGHT, AS  
WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTEN, SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE  
IS NOT HIGH ON THE DEGREE OF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. HOWEVER,  
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS LIKELY WILL PERSIST TONIGHT, POSSIBLY REMAINING  
LOW MVFR FOR A TIME AT KLSE.  
 

 
   
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...RIECK  
LONG TERM....RIECK  
AVIATION...JM  
 
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