235  
FXUS63 KDLH 201146  
AFDDLH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
546 AM CST MON NOV 20 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON NOV 20 2017  
 
AT 330 AM, IT WAS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. ABUNDANT HIGH  
CLOUDS HAD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATION  
IN TEMPERATURES. THE COLD SPOT AT 3 AM APPEARED TO BE CRANE LAKE,  
WITH 9 DEGREES. THE REST OF THE CWA WAS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO  
LOWER 20S.  
 
THE FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE BIG  
WARM UP TODAY, FOLLOWED BY THE DRAMATIC COOL DOWN TONIGHT AND  
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE INTO  
THE MANITOBA LAKES REGION BY 18Z TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM  
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TO PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN  
LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY  
TODAY, AS WAA HELPS TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 40S  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE ARROWHEAD,  
WHICH WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 30S. TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE  
PRECIPITATION-FREE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BORDER REGION, WHICH  
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO BY 00Z TUESDAY, AND  
THEN REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 06Z TUESDAY. A COLD  
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND,  
USHERING IN ARCTIC AIR ON STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. STRONG CAA AND  
EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO  
25 MPH, WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 35 MPH OR HIGHER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  
SOME PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT,  
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS  
OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS  
TO LOWER 20S, WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE TEENS IN THE  
NORTH TO THE 20S SOUTH.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON NOV 20 2017  
 
ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF ARCTIC COLD MID-WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES  
TREND MILDER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF  
SNOW SHOWER OR DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY FROM A PASSING CLIPPER, THEN A  
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW  
POSSIBLE. ARCTIC AIR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND CAUSING TEMPERATURES  
TO FALL AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN BACK TO  
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SKIES CLEAR OUT AS ARCTIC AIR  
BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO LOWS FALLING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL BUT FAR FROM ANY  
RECORD VALUES. A WARM FRONT BUILDS FROM THE DAKOTAS EAST INTO THE  
UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY, WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT ALONG A  
LINE FROM FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTH-CENTRAL MN TO NORTHERN WI  
LATE WED THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL  
ZONE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD RESULT  
IN SOME LIGHT SNOW (OR FREEZING DRIZZLE GIVEN THE CLIPPER'S  
RELATIVELY MILD AND DRY ORIGIN OF IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS), BUT  
IN GENERAL LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. CLOUDS  
FROM THE CLIPPER DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A MAINLY SUNNY  
THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE 20S WEDNESDAY, WARMING UP INTO LOW 30S FOR  
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY ON  
THURSDAY.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID-  
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND TRACK  
EAST TOWARDS ONTARIO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS GRADUALLY  
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE  
GFS, GEFS MEAN, AND ECMWF ALL IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. AS THE  
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACK EAST ACROSS  
SOUTHERN CANADA, THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE WARM  
SECTOR. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL  
LEAD TO 850MB TEMPS AROUND +10C FRIDAY, WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH  
PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY AND WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE 40S  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY, A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IS  
EXPECTED FRIDAY, WITH MOST PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN GIVEN THE  
WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NO PRECIPITATION  
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY EVENING, THEN LIGHT SNOW  
SPREADS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPING ALONG  
THE SOUTH SHORE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS FALL  
TO AROUND -10C TO -15C SATURDAY MORNING. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS  
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR NORTHERN MN, BUT ALONG THE SOUTH  
SHORE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD LEAD TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW  
BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN.  
 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LEADING TO CLEARING  
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH  
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR  
BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND  
TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES ON MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST MON NOV 20 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO MVFR THIS EVENING AS A  
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA LEADING TO VERY  
STRONG WINDS. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND  
SHEAR WILL IMPACT MOST SITES, WITH THE STRONG WINDS MIXING DOWN TO  
THE GROUND AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE  
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER  
LEADING TO MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 30  
TO 40 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DLH 40 19 23 11 / 0 10 10 0  
INL 38 15 20 7 / 20 50 20 10  
BRD 45 20 25 10 / 0 10 0 0  
HYR 44 22 26 10 / 0 10 10 0  
ASX 45 25 27 16 / 0 20 30 10  
 

 
   
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
LS...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CST TUESDAY FOR  
LSZ121-140>148.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DAP  
LONG TERM...JJM  
AVIATION...JJM  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MN Page
The Nexlab WI Page Main Text Page