058  
FXUS63 KDLH 291126  
AFDDLH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
626 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017  
 
A SEMI-VERTICALLY-STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN  
ONTARIO WILL NOT BE MOVING ANYWHERE IN A HURRY THROUGH TUESDAY. IT  
WILL MAINLY SPIN AND SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH ONTARIO.  
THIS LOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL, HUMID, AND BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW  
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DROP THROUGH  
THE AREA, HELPING TO DEVELOP RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
TODAY WILL BE THE WETTER AND BREEZIER DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL  
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE GFS, NAM,  
RAP, AND SREF INDICATE THERE WILL BE UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF  
MUCAPE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ARROWHEAD, AND IN THE FAR  
SOUTHEAST FORECAST IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THESE AREAS COULD SEE  
SOME ISOLATED, WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO  
UPPER 50S, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. THERE COULD BE  
STRAY GUSTS TO 30 MPH WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THE STORMS.  
 
THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.  
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROBABLY SPREAD ADDITIONAL SHOWERS  
OUT OF CANADA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATER IN THE NIGHT.  
TONIGHT'S CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 40S.  
 
TUESDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR STORY TO MONDAY, BUT NOT QUITE AS WET  
AND WINDY. ALSO, THE THREAT OF THUNDER LOOKS VERY LOW.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT  
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A LOW LEVEL  
RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA/EASTERN DAKOTAS BY  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO  
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING OVER  
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND AND OVER THE ARROWHEAD THURSDAY,  
BUT MOST OTHER AREAS WILL BE DRY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE  
MID SIXTIES TO AROUND SEVENTY...AND IN THE UPPER SIXTIES TO MID  
SEVENTIES THURSDAY.  
 
FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE  
REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES  
BUT BE COOLER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR AS OFF LAKE WINDS DEVELOP.  
 
THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND  
AND CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE  
DIFFERENCES ARE IN HOW THEY TREAT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT  
WILL START TO AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.  
THE GFS IS NOW STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE BUT ALSO SEEMS TO BE  
SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS THE WAVE CONTINUES INTO  
MINNESOTA. THE ECMWF WHICH HAD A STRONGER LOW/WAVE WITH PREVIOUS  
RUNS IS NOW WEAKER AND KEEPS MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE. WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND OVER PORTIONS OF  
THE NORTHLAND BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN ONE MODEL IS LOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT  
AND A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING BUT  
COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO  
THIS EVENING. A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR  
MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. WE DO EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT SOME  
THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF SITES. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR  
CEILINGS WILL EXPAND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.  
 
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
DAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DLH 55 43 54 42 / 50 20 30 20  
INL 54 44 54 42 / 70 30 40 20  
BRD 57 45 57 43 / 30 10 30 10  
HYR 58 45 56 43 / 50 40 40 20  
ASX 58 45 56 44 / 50 40 30 20  
 

 
   
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
LS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI  
LONG TERM...MELDE  
AVIATION...MELDE  
 
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