670  
FXUS63 KDLH 242347  
AFDDLH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
647 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN IN COOL, CLOUDY NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW  
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, MUCH DRIER FLOW IS  
ON ITS WAY, AS EVIDENT BY THE CLEAR SKIES AND LARGE DEW POINT  
DEPRESSIONS SEEN OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND NORTHEAST  
MANITOBA CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF  
HUDSON BAY. THIS DRIER FLOW SHOULD HELP TO SCATTER OR BEGIN TO  
CLEAR OUT CLOUD COVER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER, EASTERLY  
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH STRONG AND GUSTY  
FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL CLOUD  
COVER CLOSER TO THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY, SO SUNSHINE  
MAY BE A BIT DELAYED UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN PLACES LIKE  
THE NORTH SHORE, DULUTH, AND ASHLAND. INLAND AREAS OF THE  
NORTHLAND SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUN BY THE LATE MORNING.  
 
TONIGHT'S LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL HELP PROP UP TEMPERATURES,  
WITH LOWS FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO UPPER 20S. SOME PARTS OF  
THE ARROWHEAD COULD SEE TEENS. THE TEMPERATURES COULD BE  
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FOR INLAND AREAS, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN  
MINNESOTA, IF THE SKIES CLEAR MORE THAN ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE  
LIGHT WIND FLOW AWAY FROM THE LAKE. MUCH OF THE WESTERN LAKE  
SUPERIOR SHORELINE WILL ONLY CLIMB TO THE 30S SATURDAY BECAUSE OF  
THE CLOUDS AND COOL FLOW FROM THE LAKE, BUT AREAS WELL INLAND,  
WITH THE BETTER SUNSHINE, SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ONLY WEAK  
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. A  
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY  
WITH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND AREAS MOST OF NE MN A CHANCE FOR  
PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO CHANCES WIL BE LOWER ACROSS  
MOST AREA EXCEPT IN NW WI. ALSO, WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT, THERE IS A  
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH THE RAIN AND SNOW  
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN  
BY MID-MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE SLOWS PULLS OUT THE EAST SUNDAY  
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR OF SNOW, FREEZING  
RAIN, AND SNOW ACROSS MAINLY NW WI AND THE NORTH SHORE.  
 
AN RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST REGION ON MONDAY AND WILL  
DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING THE AREA DRY. AS  
INDICATED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH  
THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS WANTS TO BRING  
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT THE CANADIAN WANTS  
TO KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL KEEP THE BLENDED  
SOLUTION FOR NOW WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT WITH CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED  
CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN  
ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHLAND  
TONIGHT. AS IT MOVES IN, LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY AND  
THAT WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD CLEARING. WE EXPECT MVFR AND SOME IFR  
CEILINGS TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD BUT THERE WILL BE SOME VFR CEILINGS  
FOR A TIME THIS EVENING, MOSTLY LIKELY TOWARD KINL. FOG WILL ALSO  
BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS, MOSTLY LIKELY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR.  
 
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND BECOME SCATTERED FOR MOST AREAS  
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, WE DO EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS AND  
FOG TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DLH 27 38 28 38 / 10 10 30 40  
INL 24 44 24 45 / 0 0 0 10  
BRD 28 48 30 44 / 0 0 20 30  
HYR 27 46 31 43 / 0 10 40 40  
ASX 28 40 29 39 / 0 10 40 40  
 

 
   
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT SUNDAY  
FOR LSZ121-140>148.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI  
LONG TERM...STEWART  
AVIATION...MELDE  
 
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