612
FXUS63 KDLH 071740 AAA
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1140 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE...DRY AIR...AND MDT/STRONG
MECHANICAL MIXING LIMIT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. MIXING HEIGHT TODAY
ABOUT 2KFT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER/GUSTY WINDS
DURING DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN
HIGH/MID LVL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT INTO
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1052 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
UPDATE...ZONES/GRIDS IN GREAT SHAPE FOR THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
TWEAKED TEMPS UPWARD A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WITH WESTERLY WINDS HAS BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES TO ALMOST 60 DEGREES IN SPOTS. ALSO A FEW 60 DEGREE
READINGS SO FAR IN NW WI. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAFS
COLD FRONT FROM MN ARROWHEAD THROUGH NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN WILL
EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH VSBY 1/4 MILE AND CIGS BLO OVC010. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY AFTER 14Z. THEN..EXPECT CLEAR SKIES BUT
GUSTY WINDS AS 8H WINDS 20 TO 30KTS MIX TO THE SFC. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 22Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...SFC WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE FA ATTM WHILE COLD FRONT IS FOUND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA AT 08Z. CI AND AREAS OF FOG COVER A MAJORITY OF
THE FA WITH LOWEST VSBYS FOUND NEAR THE COLD FRONT. AFTER COLD
FROPA...FOG WILL LIFT AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE. BRIEF COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING ALSO OCCURRING JUST AFTER FROPA. DRIER AIR FOLLOWS AS SFC
DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE MID 20S F AS SEEN IN THE DAKOTAS. COLD
FRONT DEPARTS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
SETTLE IN. SECOND DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN NE MN AND NW WI.
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH STILL IN PLAY.
A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL HANDLING OF THE LOCATION/DEPTH/QPF
WITH ITS PASSAGE IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT. HAVE FOLLOWED HPC QPF FOR
SUNDAY PCPN...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ALREADY FORECAST.
EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE UPPER TROF
ENTERING THE WEST COAST DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
POINT TEMPS/POPS
DLH 37 50 32 50 / 0 20 10 10
INL 29 53 31 47 / 0 10 10 10
BRD 40 54 33 51 / 0 20 10 10
HYR 38 54 34 53 / 0 30 20 10
ASX 38 56 35 54 / 0 30 20 10
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
06/CANNON/CANNON
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