016
FXUS63 KDLH 042016
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
316 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
DISCUSSION
LOW LEVEL BDRY/SHEAR ZONE THAT MOVED ACROSS SRN
EDGE OF CWA YESTERDAY AFTN IS ONCE AGAIN ASSISTING IN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION JUST SOUTH OF CWA. WELL DEFINED 925 WIND SHIFT/THETAE
AXIS REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SRN PRICE COUNTY THRU AFTN HEATING HRS. VIS
IMAGERY INDICATES CU DEVELOPMENT HAS NOT BEEN INCREASING MUCH IN
THIS VICINITY. OTHERWISE...AN APPROACHING S/W EMBEDDED WITH UPPER
JET HAS PUSHED AN AREA OF SCT/BKN CU INTO THE NWRN CRNR OF THE
CWA. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH DEVELOPMENT
FROM THIS SYSTEM.
TONIGHT/SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AS
UPPER JET CORE SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS INTL BORDER BY 12Z. FCST/GRIDS
ARE DRY HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/SPRINKLE
OCCURS TONIGHT ALONG INTL BORDER. NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT AS
SOME CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS REGION. DEEP LAYER DRYING DEVELOPS SUNDAY
AS MID LVL LOW AMPLIFIES OVER SCTRL ONTARIO. RISING MIXING LAYER
HEIGHT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SOME
INCREASING NW WINDS DURING AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS. SLIGHTLY LOWER
MAX TEMPS AS 85H TEMPS LOWER IN DEEPENING NW FLOW.
EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WRN UPPER RIDGE TO GRADUALLY BUILD WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...S/WVS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL BRING MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE RIGHT NOW...BUT LOOKS LIKE SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO WAA DEVELOPING ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH.
TRACK AND SPEED OF LOW IN QUESTIONS...AND SET UP UP WARM FRONT STILL
IN QUESTION.
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z 06JUL.
POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 50 75 47 76 / 10 10 10 10
INL 50 75 46 76 / 10 10 10 10
BRD 55 78 52 80 / 10 10 10 10
HYR 48 80 46 79 / 10 10 10 10
ASX 50 75 48 77 / 10 10 10 10
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
CANNON/CLC
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