971  
FXUS63 KFGF 172329  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
629 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2018  
 
THE CUMULUS FIELD IS ALMOST GONE ALREADY, SO ANOTHER LIGHT WIND  
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2018  
 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THRU NORTHERN MN AND THE FCST AREA WILL SEE  
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND DEVELOP THRU THE NIGHT. NOT STRONG AND WITH  
WARMING OF THE LOW LEVELS WILL SEE LOWS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.  
 
NEXT UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST-  
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WITH THIS  
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD THRU SOUTH CENTRAL INTO WESTERN ND WED AFTN  
WITH RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS...WITH ERN EDGE OF RISK DEVILS  
LAKE-VALLEY CITY REGION AFTER 21Z WED. MOST OF THE PRECIP CHANCES  
THOUGH HOLD OFF TIL WELL BEYOND THIS PERIOD. WARMER AIRMASS MOVING  
IN SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLIMB TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH LOW-  
MID 80S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2018  
 
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM CENTRAL ND TOWARD  
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE  
GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200, WHERE EVENT TOTAL AMOUNTS  
OF OVER AN INCH ARE LIKELY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER AN  
INCH, ISOLATED EVENT TOTAL AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN  
THAT AREA, DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BEST FORCING OCCURS. LESSER  
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH, EXCEPT FOR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  
WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF THIS  
ACTIVITY, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
FRIDAY. WHILE THERE IS GOOD OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF  
THIS SYSTEM, THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS.  
THE LOCATION OF THE STACKING OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS IS STILL  
QUITE UNCERTAIN AND MAY PROMPT CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER  
LEVEL LOW, THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS LIKELY ONLY  
REACHING THE 60S AND 70S.  
 
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND  
UPPER RIDGING ALOFT PUSH THROUGH THE PLAINS, RESULTING IN A PERIOD  
OF QUIET, DRY, AND WARMER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR  
NORMAL VALUES FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE  
60S.  
 
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FRONT DRAPING INTO  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL WRAP UP  
OVER WESTERN ONTARIO DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. DEPENDING ON HOW THE  
TIMING WORKS OUT, SEVERAL INGREDIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM  
SUGGEST POTENTIAL TO BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2018  
 
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ISSUES FOR THE TAFS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...GODON  
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE  
LONG TERM...BP  
AVIATION...GODON  
 
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