887  
FXUS63 KFGF 302007  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
307 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2017  
 
ONSET AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN HEADACHE FOR  
THE PERIOD.  
 
THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS STILL SPINNING ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER,  
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LEAD PRECIP BANDS EXTENDING INTO  
EASTERN SD AND CENTRAL MN. THOSE PRECIP BANDS HAVE BEEN FALLING  
APART AS THEY APPROACH OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH DRIER AIR IN  
PLACE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORCING. BOTH THE HIGH-RES AND  
SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP ANY ACCUMULATING PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR  
COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER 06Z, SOME CLOSER TO 09Z OR LATER. GIVEN DEW  
POINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S, IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL TAKE A  
WHILE TO SATURATE. THERE WILL BE SOME 850MB FRONTOGENESIS  
OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING SYNOPTIC LIFT AS THE UPPER  
LOW LIFTS INTO IA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH POPS IN OUR  
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, TRENDING SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST AS MOST  
MODEL RUNS HAVE PRECIP FROM THE SOUTHEAST ND/MN BORDER UP TOWARDS  
NORTHEASTERN MN. DEFORMATION ZONE WILL STAY OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN  
COUNTIES INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO WI.  
WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE  
STARTING TO COME DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF  
COMPLETELY MONDAY EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS EAST.  
 
MODEL SOUNDINGS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA HAVE TEMPS RIGHT  
AT BORDERLINE FOR RAIN/SNOW AS THEY BECOME SATURATED LATER  
TONIGHT. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT PRECIP RATES AND THE SNOW  
WILL BE FALLING AT NIGHT, BUT WITH THE SLOWER AND FURTHER EAST  
TREND IT SEEMS THAT OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL SEE A FEW  
INCHES AT BEST. GEFS PLUMES FOR PKD HAVE BACKED OFF IN A BIG WAY,  
WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN NOW AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SNOW  
RATHER THAN THE OVER 6 INCHES THEY HAD YESTERDAY. AT THIS POINT  
STATUS QUO SEEMS REASONABLE UNTIL WE ACTUALLY SEE PRECIP STARTING  
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER  
ADVISORY AS WE HAVE GOING AND KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND 1-4 INCHES.  
 
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2017  
 
NO MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH QUIET  
SPRING-LIKE WEATHER RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK AND FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST  
AREA WITH ONE WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON  
TUESDAY, AND ANOTHER, POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY STRONGER, WAVE CLOSER TO  
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY.  
REGARDLESS, IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES WARM  
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT JUST SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
DOMINANT UPPER RIDGING THEN BUILDS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE  
WORK WEEK BEFORE THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS SETTLES ACROSS OUR AREA FOR THE  
WEEKEND. WITH QUIET WEATHER, THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW WARM  
WE GET AS 850 TEMPERATURES AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION REALLY RAMP  
UP.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2017  
 
ALL SITES ARE VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT  
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES CLOSER.  
THINK THAT MOST OF THE SNOW/RAIN AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL STAY SOUTH  
AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A PERIOD LATE IN  
THE PERIOD WHERE KBJI SEES A FEW SNOW FLAKES AND LOWER CLOUDS.  
WILL KEEP VISIBILITIES UP FOR NOW AND CEILINGS AT MVFR FOR KBJI  
TOMORROW MORNING BUT WILL ADJUST AS THE TIME PERIOD GETS CLOSER.  
THE OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO  
THE EAST THIS EVENING AND THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST  
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. KFAR AND KBJI COULD SEE SOME WINDS  
ABOVE 15 KTS WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS FURTHER NORTH.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CDT MONDAY  
FOR MNZ024-031-032-040.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JR  
LONG TERM...LEE  
AVIATION...JR  
 
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