020
FXUS63 KFGF 072007
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
207 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
SHORT TERM
OTHER THAN POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY. NO REAL
MODEL PREFERENCE AGAIN TODAY...AS THERE IS NO GOOD CONSENSUS ON
WHERE/IF ANY PCPN WILL FALL ON SUNDAY.
TONIGHT...SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE FINALLY STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHERN
FA ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER JET WHICH LIES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS...AND EXPECT THESE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST/SW FA LATER
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GUSTY WEST WINDS HAVE ADVECTED IN SOME VERY
DRY AIR AT THE SFC...WITH MOST SITES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR
DEW POINT VALUES. EXPECT THE GUSTY WEST WINDS TO SLOWLY RELAX AND
SHIFT A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...BECOMING PRETTY LIGHT BY
SUNDAY MORNING IN A LOT OF AREAS. WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER OVER
MOST OF THE FA...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER DARK.
SUN-TUE...A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE THRU THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. DO NOT SEE A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR PCPN
WITH THIS WAVE...BUT THE UPPER JET REMAINS OVER THE AREA THRU THE
DAY. AT THE SFC A WEAK LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH
AND SE OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK/NEARLY LIGHT SFC WIND FLOW OVER THE
FA. MODELS ARE STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE IN REGARD TO PCPN
PLACEMENT BUT DO AGREE ON THE LIGHT AMOUNTS. PREVIOUS SHIFT ADDED
IN SLIGHT PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA AND WILL STICK
WITH THAT FOR NOW. NAM/GEM REGIONAL/ECMWF SHOW A LITTLE PCPN IN
THIS AREA WHILE THE GFS/UK HAVE A MUCH LARGER AREA DEPICTED AND
ALSO ARE FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES STILL EXPECTING A
SFC HIGH FOR MONDAY AND THEN A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
(STRONGER SOUTH WINDS) FOR TUE. TEMPS LOOK TO STAY RELATIVELY
MILD.
LONG TERM [WED-SAT]
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL
WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL. ON THURSDAY UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRAVERSES THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. A SURFACE LOW PRES SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA
BRINGING A SCHC OF PRECIP WITH HIGH PRES SETTLING IN BY FRI. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH LATE FRI INTO SAT BRINGING A
BETTER CHC FOR PRECIP...POSSIBLY A MIXTURE. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL..ESPECIALLY THROUGH THU BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL
NORMS EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLR THIS AFTN AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL CONT TO BE
WESTERLY AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS AT TIMES 25 TO 30 KTS. EXPECT
WINDS TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND TURN MORE SSWLY TOWARD SUNSET INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MID LVL CLOUDS ENTERING SRN ND AS SEEN ON VIS
IMAGERY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLY TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
GODON/FRAZIER
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