110  
FXUS63 KFGF 211448  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
948 AM CDT MON AUG 21 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT MON AUG 21 2017  
 
ORGANIZED SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH AND SOUTH-  
SOUTHEAST. LOOKING UPSTREAM CLOSER TO THE FRONT, NOT A GREAT DEAL  
OF INSTABILITY AND LESS THAN IDEAL LAPSE RATES SO UNSURE OF  
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS CAM AND HIGH  
RES MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY DRY. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS  
TRENDING DRIER WITH THE FORECAST. AS FOR THE ECLIPSE STILL  
LOOKING LIKE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN HOWEVER MAY BE SOME PERIODIC  
BREAKS FOR THE VIEWING. AT THIS TIME THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE  
OVER EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT MON AUG 21 2017  
 
RADAR INDICATED THUNDER IN CENTRAL ND. HOWEVER ACTIVITY HAS  
DIMINISHED WITH STRONGER STORMS OCCURRING OVER SD. STILL  
ADDED MORE THUNDER FOR TODAY IN THE SOUTH AND WEST.  
 
INCREASED WINDS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD  
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON AUG 21 2017  
 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHORT  
WAVE IN THE FLOW. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED SHORT WAVES OVER  
WESTERN ND, EASTERN MT, AND CENTRAL SASK.  
 
PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS AROUND ONE INCH AND WILL DECREASE TO  
AROUND HALF AN INCH BY 12Z TUE. MUCAPES WERE AROUND  
250-500 J/KG IN WESTERN ND AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG  
IN THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON., THEN SLIDE OFF TO THE  
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.  
 
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA FOR WED AND  
PRODUCE SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MN SIDE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON AUG 21 2017  
 
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT MOVING THE UPPER  
RIDGE EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH  
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY LATER ON FRIDAY. UPPER LOW AND  
STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE WELL NORTH INTO CANADA, WHICH LEADS TO  
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY FORCING  
MECHANISMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OF THE USA. AT ANY RATE,  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE BY LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND,  
ALTHOUGH DETAILS STILL UNCERTAIN. POTENTIAL IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE  
VERY LOW AT THIS POINT. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE  
50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT MON AUG 21 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA AS CIGS WERE ABOVE 10 THOUSAND  
FT. COULD BE A BRIEF MVFR PERIOD TUE MORNING JUST EAST OF THE RED  
RIVER. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLD  
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY  
WINDS TO 35-40 MPH.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...VOELKER  
SHORT TERM...JH  
LONG TERM...TG  
AVIATION...JH  
 
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