249  
FXUS63 KFGF 170323 AAA  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
923 PM CST SAT DEC 16 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 923 PM CST SAT DEC 16 2017  
 
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENT DENSE FOG IN  
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MN. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE  
ON CURRENT CONDITIONS NOW AND STILL SUGGEST FOG SPREADING FURTHER  
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST AND WEST  
CENTRAL MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN EVEN  
FURTHER AS LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE DRIVING  
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS DOWN FURTHER IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CST SAT DEC 16 2017  
 
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE LAKE OF THE  
WOODS AREA FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AS WEAK UPPER ENERGY MOVES OUT TO  
THE EAST. ALSO ISSUED A STATEMENT FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING  
IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL CAUSE AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE  
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ALONG THE VALLEY. IT IS LOOKING  
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT FOG WILL INTENSIFY AND SPREAD ACROSS  
MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO  
THE EARLY MORNING, SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY  
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 137 PM CST SAT DEC 16 2017  
 
QUIET WEATHER SINCE NOON TODAY WITH TWO SITES ACROSS ROSEAU COUNTY  
STILL REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AND BDE ASOS REPORTING ICING HOWEVER NO  
PRECIP AT CURRENT TIME...THUS SOME CONCERN FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE BUT  
WOULD NOT EXPECT IMPACTS GIVEN ALREADY WET/SNOW PACKED ROADS.  
 
FOCUS TURNS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AND CLEARING TONIGHT AS MUCH OF  
CENTRAL AND WRN ND CLEAR IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS. SHOULD ALLOW  
NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO COOL INTO THE MID TEENS. SFC BOUNDARY  
ASSOCIATED W/ WARM FRONT REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY OVER VALLEY  
TONIGHT AND WHICH SHOULD KEEP NE ZONES IN THE MID TEENS AS WELL AS  
THEY BARELY BROKE THE 20 MARK THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
MORE SUNSHINE STILL EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH AREAS WEST OF THE  
VALLEY AROUND OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL BUT FAR NORTHEASTERN  
ND, WHICH WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20. WARMEST TEMPS WILL  
BE FROM VALLEY CITY TO LISBON AND MAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S.  
SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AFTER REMAINING LIGHT ACTIVITY AROUND LAKE  
OF THE WOODS MOVES OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 137 PM CST SAT DEC 16 2017  
 
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW SET UP, A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BE  
PROPAGATING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/JET  
STREAK WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN  
FA ON MONDAY (LIKELY SNOW, TRACE AMOUNTS). THEN, A COLD FRONT WILL  
BRING WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. WINDS ALOFT ARE VERY  
STRONG, BUT WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NIGHTTIME FROPA WILL LIMIT  
MIXING POTENTIAL. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FOR IMPACTS.  
 
WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT DEPICTING AN OVERRUNNING/WARM AIR  
ADVECTION SNOWFALL EVENT, BUT NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION.  
MODELS INDICATE BANDED SNOWFALL POTENTIAL (MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS),  
ALTHOUGH ITS DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW ORGANIZED THE BANDING MIGHT BE.  
RISK AREA FOR SNOWFALL IS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTH  
DAKOTA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ONLY 1/3 TO  
1/2 OF THIS RISK AREA WILL RECEIVE SNOWFALL (I.E. IF SFC HIGH IS  
STRONGER, MAIN RISK AREA MAY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION). EACH MODEL  
INDICATES 0.4 TO 0.5 INCHES QPF WITHIN THEIR HEAVIEST AREA, WHICH  
GIVEN EXPECTED SNOW RATIOS EQUATES TO 6+ INCHES OF SNOW (ALONG WITH  
BANDING POTENTIAL). MAIN MESSAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT  
SNOWFALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, BUT DETAILS SUCH AS LOCATION  
AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.  
 
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOLLOWS THE WEDNESDAY  
SYSTEM. LOWERED MODEL BLEND FORECASTS CONSIDERABLY TO ALIGN WITH  
ANALOG GUIDANCE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 643 PM CST SAT DEC 16 2017  
 
CIGS ARE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRIER AIR ALOFT. WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH, EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF  
THE RED RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE PATCHES OF  
MVFR TO LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS ALONG THE VALLEY (FAR-GFK). FURTHER  
EAST IN A TVF-BJI-PKD AREA, MORE WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY IFR TO LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS AND  
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MORNING.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ001-002-007-008-  
013>015.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...BP  
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER  
LONG TERM...TG  
AVIATION...BP  
 
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