999
FXUS63 KFGF 091533 AAA
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
DISCUSSION
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN VERY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
CONCERN BEING HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE KDVL TO LANGDON REGION. UNDER
THE SFC HIGH THIS MORNING TEMPS ACROSS THAT CORRIDOR DROPPED INTO
THE 15 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE. CONTRAST THAT TO WHERE CLOUDS
HELD IN A LITTLE LONGER...KFFM AT 7F NOW. THERE ARE ALSO SOME LOW
THIN CLOUDS AND A LITTLE FOG/MIST FROM KDVL TO LANGDON. THINK THIS
SHOULD BURN OFF THRU THE MORNING BUT WILL MONITOR. AS FAR AS TEMPS
GO...WILL CUT BACK ON HIGHS IN THE WEST. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH WARM
ADVECTION/WIND...SO WILL STRICTLY DEPEND ON THE POWER OF THE SUN
TO WARM THINGS OVER THERE. ADDING IN THE THIN LOW CLOUDS AND FRESH
SNOW...THINK HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO. TOUGH CALL THOUGH AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THRU THE
MORNING TO SEE HOW TEMPS RESPOND.
AVIATION
THERE ARE SOME THIN LOW CLOUDS OUT ACROSS THE KDVL REGION THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING SOME TEMPORARY LOW VSBYS IN MIST. NOT SURE HOW
LONG THIS WILL HANG AROUND SO WILL WATCH. OTHERWISE WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 338 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. GFS/NAM/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND.
09 UTC WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER OMAHA MOVING OUT OF
THE REGION WITH A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST ONTARIO TO
EAST CENTRAL MONTANA. LOW CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. NAM/RUC 1000 TO 700
HPA RH FIELDS SHOW WHAT LITTLE CLOUD COVER IS LEFT TO DISSIPATE
AND MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
FOR TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST SO THAT
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM BAUDETTE TO DETROIT LAKES TO WAHPETON BY
12 UTC WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND 10 BELOW MOST PLACES. WINDS SHOULD
BE LESS THAN 5 MPH...BUT SOME RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD
OF WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 25 BELOW ZERO. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
ADVISORY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
WEAK 925 TO 850 HPA WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE WEST. BOTH GFS/NAM
PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WITH VERY WEAK LIFT...WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES TO RISE SLIGHTLY AGAIN FRIDAY BEFORE DROPPING A
HANDFUL OF DEGREES ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATES AROUND
EASTERN CANADIAN LOW AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA. AS SUCH...
DID INTRODUCE 20 POPS SATURDAY.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
GODON
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