553  
FXUS63 KFGF 252343  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
643 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
 
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN EVIDENT IN CU/STRATOCU CLOUD FIELD MOVING  
ACROSS THE FA. THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR SOUTHERN RED  
RIVER VALLEY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FA SHORTLY AND REMAINING SHOWERS  
AND SPRINKLES SHOULD BE DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. NO  
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UPDATES NEEDED THIS EARLY EVENING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
 
ONE SHORT WAVE THAT MOVED FROM NW TO SOUTH CENTRAL ND IS NOW INTO  
NE SD. JUST NORTHEAST OF THIS SYSTEM ENOUGH HEATING AND FORCING  
FROM IT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE YET A T-STORM IN  
AREAS NR JAMESTOWN TO FARGO SOUTH. OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHOWERS  
OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS MOVING  
SOUTHEAST TOWARD BAUDETTE AT 21Z. IN BETWEEN DVL/GFK/PKD NOT AS  
MUCH FORCING BUT ENOUGH HEATING FOR THE DAYTIME CU AND FOR SPOTTY  
SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY SUN DRIVEN AND WILL DIMINISH THIS  
EVENING..LEAVING FOR A DRY OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING. CLEAR  
SKY OVERNIGHT AND LIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW-MID  
40S ALL AREAS. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG, BUT RAINFALL HAS BEEN  
PRETTY SPOTTY AND AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY. MONDAY WILL SEE A FEW CU  
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, ESP EAST OF THE RED RIVER WHERE CONVECTIVE  
TEMPS ARE THE LOWEST. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS, AND TEMPS MUCH CLOSER  
TO AVERAGE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
 
A DEPARTING SFC RIDGE WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SLIDING INTO THE  
DAKOTAS WILL KEEP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DRY WITH BREEZY  
SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING KNOCK THE AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE  
70S AND 80S AFTER A LONG COOL SPELL. A SFC LOW EAST OF THE  
NORTHERN ROCKIES THEN SLIDES INTO THE NORTHERN TIER TO BRING  
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE NIGHT INTO WED  
EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT SEVERE STORMS TUE NIGHT AS  
SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOMEWHERE THROUGH THE AREA...BUT MODELS IN  
GENERAL AGREEMENT THE LOWER PRESSURES WILL MOVE INTO THE VALLEY  
LATE TUE NIGHT...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE LATITUDE OF THE  
CENTER OF THE LOW. AN UPPER LOW THEN SWINGS ACROSS SRN CANADA AND  
INTO THE NORTHERN TIER THU IN TO FRI...AS DEPICTED BY THE  
ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT WEAKER. BLENDED SOLUTION THEREFORE  
GIVING SOME SCT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA BOTH THU AFTN AND FRIDAY  
BEFORE A DRY SATURDAY. OVERALL DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S  
AFTER THE WARM TUESDAY...AND THE MID WEEK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
PASSES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
 
EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CEILINGS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST BLAYER FLOW THROUGH 02Z. AFTER 02Z EXPECT FAIR  
SKIES AND WINDS STEADILY DIMINISHING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. FAIR SKIES AND A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY  
FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY... WITH FEW-SCT VFR CLOUDS  
DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...GUST  
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE  
LONG TERM...SPEICHER  
AVIATION...GUST  
 
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