130  
FXUS63 KFGF 220001  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
701 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017  
 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND  
EAST TONIGHT. RADAR INDICATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NORTH  
CENTRAL MN AND WERE MOVING NORTH AT 50-55 KNOTS. LITTLE CHANGE TO  
CURRENT FORECAST. TWEAKED POPS TO MATCH CURRENT RADAR.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017  
 
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD.  
 
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS STILL JUST ENTERING  
THE WESTERN PLAINS, BUT A LEAD SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING  
THROUGH EASTERN ND OUT AHEAD OF THAT MAIN SYSTEM. A LINE OF  
SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED WITH THAT SHORTWAVE, EXTENDING FROM THE  
DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY AND WEST  
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. NONE OF THE CAMS ARE DOING A VERY GOOD JOB WITH  
THESE SHOWERS, AND A FEW CELLS HAVE GROWN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE  
MN COUNTIES TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER. THINK THE SHOWERS WILL  
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WHILE  
ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES ONLY  
SLOWLY EAST FROM CENTRAL ND. STRONGER CONVECTION WILL STAY TO THE  
SOUTH WHERE THERE IS ACTUALLY SOME INSTABILITY. THINK THE PRECIP  
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON AS WE LOSE HEATING AND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE ROTATES  
OUT OF THE AREA.  
 
TONIGHT, SKIES WILL CLEAR OFF AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THE REST OF  
THE WAY ACROSS THE REGION. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP US  
MIXED, SO EVEN WITH GOOD RADIATING OUT TEMPS SHOULD STAY IN THE  
30S TO LOW 40S. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW,  
AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION. EVEN WITH  
A COLD START AND INCREASING CLOUDS, THINK SUNDAY SHOULD GET INTO  
THE UPPER 50S INTO THE 60S. THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE  
APPROACHING THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER DURING THE DAY, WHICH  
SHOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN  
ALONG OUR NORTHWESTERN BORDER LATE IN THE DAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017  
 
A COOLING TREND IS IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. MONDAY WILL  
SEE SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2  
CORRIDOR AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN  
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE  
CLOSE TO SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID UPPER 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS  
DROPPING TO THE MID TO LOW 30S. TUESDAY WILL SEE DRIER CONDITIONS  
WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO MONDAY.  
 
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SHIFT TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINNING  
MID WEEK. THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK COLD  
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA  
REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW  
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO  
BE THE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING TO THE MID TO UPPER  
50S IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY  
WITH MID 50S LIKELY IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN  
MINNESOTA.  
 
BEGINNING THURSDAY MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SHOW MORE SPREAD...BOTH  
BETWEEN MODELS AND SEQUENTIAL MODEL RUNS... ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS  
TO TIMING. HOWEVER... AN OVERALL SIGNAL PERSISTS THAT RAIN CHANCES  
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW  
LARGE SCALE TROUGHS DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE 12Z GFS  
HAVING A MORE AMPLIFIED AND ROBUST WAVE EJECTING OUT OVER THE  
PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF SUGGESTS LESS  
AMPLIFIED WAVE EJECTING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE SAME  
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. NOTABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN  
RUNS OF THE ECMWF PLACE SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENCE ON RECENT GFS  
RUNS.  
 
REGARDLESS... BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE  
NORTHWEST DEFORMATION ZONE OF SURFACE LOWS THAT TRACK OVER THE NORTH  
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH OVERNIGHT  
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AND COLD AIR IN PLACE ALOFT A  
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE  
CANADIAN BORDER AND INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. HIGHS THURSDAY  
THROUGH SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE LOW TO  
MID 40S. EVEN WITH DAY TIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IMPACTS FROM  
ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION ARE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME DUE  
TO HIGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, PRECIPITATION LOCATION, AND  
PRECIPITATION AMOUNT. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR  
POTENTIAL IMPACTS HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017  
 
MVFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES ROUGHLY  
EAST OF A LINE FROM FGN TO WEST OF PKD. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO MOVE  
TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY  
WAS OVER THE REGION WITH CIGS FROM 40 TO 85 HUNDRED FT. SATELLITE  
INDICATED CLOUD DECKS AT TWO DIFFERENT LEVELS MOVING IN TWO  
DIRECTIONS. CLOUD DECK TO THE WEST WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 35  
KNOTS WHILE CLOUD DECK OVER THE AREA WAS MOVING NORTH AT 50-55  
KNOTS. CLOUD DECK TO THE WEST WAS LOWER WITH CIGS BETWEEN 30-55  
HUNDRED FT. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA  
BY 12Z SUN.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...JH  
SHORT TERM...JR  
LONG TERM...AM  
AVIATION...JH  
 
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