387  
FXUS63 KFGF 252357  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
657 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018  
 
NICELY DEFINED VORT MAX MOVING TOWARD WINNIPEG AT 23Z. THIS VORT  
RESPONSIBLE FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO GET SCT T-STORMS GOING OVER PARTS  
OF THE RRV/NW MN. AS FOR MAX MOVES EAST AND THE SUN SETS THE  
THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL DIMINSH IN NW MN. ON SOUTHWEST SIDE OF  
VORT WE HAVE HAD GOOD MIXING WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN AND  
THIS HAS CAUSED WIND GUSTS INTO THE 30-40 MPH RANGE IN NE ND THE  
LAST FEW HOURS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018  
 
ORGANIZED FORCING IS MAINLY NORTH OF OUR CWA WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS  
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. DESPITE DISORGANIZED FORCING LOCALLY,  
INSTABILITY, MID LEVEL MOISTURE, AND SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE  
TROUGHS/CONVERGENCE ZONES HAVE HELPED KICK OF ISOLATED  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA. MOST CAMS SHOW ISOLATED  
ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA, BUT HRRR DOES INDICATE MAYBE AN  
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER NW MN. ML CAPE IS STILL 500-1000 J/KG  
LIMITING SEVERE CONCERN SOMEWHAT, BUT SURFACE BASED PARCELS WOULD  
STILL FEED INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS, SO ISOLATED/STRONGER CELLS  
STILL CAN'T BE RULED OUT. MOISTURE PROFILES (INVERTED-V) AND DCAPE  
OVER 1000 J/KG RAISES CONCERN FOR MICROBURST/DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL  
WITH ACTIVITY, BUT WITHOUT MORE ORGANIZATION THREAT SHOULD BE VERY  
LOCALIZED/ISOLATED. WITH MARGINAL TO UNFAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE  
RATES AND MIDDLING FORCING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE HIGHLY DIURNALLY  
DRIVEN AND WIND DOWN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.  
 
UPPER TROUGHS ARE EVEN FURTHER EAST ON FRIDAY, SO OTHER THAN LAKE OF  
THE WOODS REGION, MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS. NEAR  
RECORD OR RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH MANY  
LOCATIONS AROUND 90F OR WARMER (A LITTLE "COOLER" IN THE NORTHERN  
RRV). AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WINDS MAY ALSO BE UNDERDONE IN GUIDANCE  
BASED ON MIXING HEIGHTS, SO I TRENDED WINDS UP A BIT FROM STANDARD  
BLEND TOWARDS MOS BLEND WHICH HAS TENDED TO BE CLOSER ON WIND  
SPEEDS (STILL A LITTLE LOW). WINDS SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH AND RH  
HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP US BELOW RFW CRITERIA, BUT IT IS WORTH  
MONITORING LIKE TODAY (COULD BE "NEAR" CRITICAL AGAIN).  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018  
 
HOT, POSSIBLE RECORD HEAT FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. COOLER BUT STILL  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE NEXT WORK  
WEEK. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS  
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK.  
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NEVADA/UTAH AREA  
DEFINES THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SOME  
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TO HELP INCREASE THE  
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY  
MORNING THE EAST CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND STORMS WILL BE IN EASTERN  
NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. SUNDAY  
NIGHT THE SHOWER AND RAIN THREAT INCREASES AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW  
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MU CAPE LATE SUNDAY COULD APPROACH 1500 TO  
2000 J/KG. ON MONDAY MU CAPE COULD BE HIGHER WITH VALUES OVER 3000  
J/KG IN THE NAM AND GFS. BULK SHEAR OVER 40 KNOTS ALSO PRESENT IN  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SO THERE IS SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS.  
ONE OF THE MAJOR LIMITING FACTORS HERE WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CIN AS  
IT IS FORECAST TO BE HIGH AS WELL OVER THIS PERIOD.  
 
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE NAM AND  
GFS ARE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR NEARBY SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGIES  
(BIS, ABR, AND INL). THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE PREVIOUS UPPER LOW  
BECOMING DISLODGED AND THE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS. DRYER WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR  
RAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018  
 
GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 30 KTS IN NE ND AND ISOLD TSRA IN NW MN WILL  
OCCUR THRU SUNSET. WINDS WILL CALM DOWN UNDER 10 KTS AFTER DARK  
AND THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH. QUITE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY  
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. DAILY CU SAT AFTN LIKELY...ESP N/E.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...RIDDLE  
SHORT TERM...DJR  
LONG TERM...NC  
AVIATION...RIDDLE  
 
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