913  
FXUS63 KMPX 111222 AAA  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
622 AM CST MON DEC 11 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST MON DEC 11 2017  
 
THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS SHIFTED OUT OF MINNESOTA BUT CONTINUES  
ACROSS MOST OF WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM,  
THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE SLIDING  
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVER WEST CENTRAL  
MINNESOTA WILL ALSO CONTINUE PROPAGATING EAST SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS  
MORNING. A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW HAS  
ACCOMPANIED THIS ACTIVITY, BUT IT IS BEGINNING TO HEAD INTO A  
COLDER ATMOSPHERE SO IT SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW AS IT PROGRESSES  
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  
MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ALEXANDRIA, LONG  
PRAIRIE, GLENWOOD, AND POSSIBLY LITTLE FALLS. ADDITIONAL SNOW  
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER LOW ITSELF AS IT PASSES  
OVERHEAD, BUT THEY SHOULD BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT WITH MINIMAL  
ACCUMULATION. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW'S PASSAGE  
WITH PRECIP CHANCES ENDING THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENING  
OVER THE DAKOTAS. GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON. IT MAY BE  
TOUGHER TO GET THOSE KINDS OF GUSTS THIS FAR EAST GIVEN THE TRACK  
OF THE LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN COMING DOWN A BIT WITH  
WINDS ALOFT AND THERE AREN'T ANY LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA OR MODELS  
SHOWING 40+ KTS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER. CANNOT RULE OUT AN  
ISOLATED OCCURRENCE NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER OR THE MN RIVER  
VALLEY, BUT THE RISK ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND  
ADVISORY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST MON DEC 11 2017  
 
OVERALL NOT TOO MUCH TO DISCUSS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST  
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SLIDING  
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. THE STRONGEST APPEAR TO BE  
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING. IN BOTH CASES,  
THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MN  
INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI AND THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY  
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AND NEAR NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED.  
 
THE PATTERN COULD CHANGE NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK  
WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST BREAKING DOWN AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE  
CONUS BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE  
SUBSTANTIAL WAVES TO COME ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT WILL  
ALSO MEAN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS HEADING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF  
DECEMBER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST MON DEC 11 2017  
 
A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND SOME FREEZING RAIN IS PUSHING  
ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND BEGINNING TO REACH FAR WESTERN  
WI. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH 14-15Z AND WILL  
LAST ABOUT AN HOUR AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. MINIMAL ACCUMULATION IS  
EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING,  
BUT SHOULD EXIT TO THE SOUTH MIDDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE  
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST 25-30 KT.  
 
KMSP...WINTRY MIX PUSHING THROUGH NOW, AND SHOULD EXIT BETWEEN  
13-1330Z. MVFR CIGS THEN LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WINDS  
BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.  
WED...MVFR WITH CHC -SN. WIND SE 5 KTS MRNG, NW AFTN 10-15 KTS.  
THU...CHC MVFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF  
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF  
AVIATION...BORGHOFF  
 
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