919  
FXUS63 KMPX 220837  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
337 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
 
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. TODAY WILL PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS  
NEAR 80. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT.  
TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY WITH A FEW AREAS OF  
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 60S.  
 
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP13 500MB HEIGHTS  
AND WINDS SHOWED THE WOUND UP CYCLONE OVER THE ILLINOIS RIVER  
VALLEY. THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDED ACROSS THE UPPER  
MIDWEST, AND THESE CLOUDS WILL STICK WITH US MOST OF THE DAY TODAY  
AND BRING FILTERED SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. A BAGGY SURFACE RIDGE  
EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND MINNESOTA,  
AND THIS WILL BRING US LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
 
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT  
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THIS  
WEAK FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM  
HAS REMAINED VERY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED IN TERMS OF SURFACE  
FEATURES. HOWEVER, SUMMER TIME INSTABILITY, ALTHOUGH NOT STRONG,  
WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING A FEW STORMS DURING AFTERNOON  
HEATING. THE BEST LOCATION AND GENERALLY HIGHER CHANCES OF  
PRECIPITATION, WILL OCCUR IN WEST CENTRAL, SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH  
CENTRAL MINNESOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND EVENING. FURTHER TO THE  
NORTHEAST INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AND THE IMPULSE THAT IS ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY SHEAR OUT BEFORE IT MOVES  
NORTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA SUNDAY.  
 
THE SECOND SYSTEM IS STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND WILL LIKELY  
GENERATE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE  
MONDAY, AND INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE  
INITIAL TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST  
TUESDAY, AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS SAID BEFORE, THE WEAK FLOW  
ALOFT WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME TIMING ISSUE ON THE DEPARTURE OF THIS  
SYSTEM. SO I WOULDN'T GUARANTEE WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY.  
 
PAST WEDNESDAY, THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL ABRUPTLY END AS A STRONG  
WEST TO EAST FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE  
MODELS AND EVEN THE ENSEMBLES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS THIS  
TYPE OF FLOW DEVELOPS, FAST WESTERLY SHORT WAVES WILL LIKELY FORM  
AND QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION. THIS IS  
THE PERIOD WHERE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER RETURN AS WIND SHEAR  
INCREASES. BEYOND THE 7 DAY PERIOD, MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN  
DEVELOPING A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION.  
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE EVEN DEPICTING A RETURN TO A MORE  
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL  
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO  
MID 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MODIFY AS THE RIDGE  
BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHWARD LATE NEXT WEEK. THICKNESS VALUES AND  
85H TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH HIGHS  
REACHING THE 90S ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2018  
 
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT TONIGHT, WITH  
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST AOB 6 KNOTS ON FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON/EVE.  
 
KMSP...NO CONCERNS.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
SAT...VFR. WIND SW 5 KTS.  
SUN...VFR. SLGT CHC -TSRA. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.  
MON...VFR. WIND SE 10G15 KTS.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JRB  
LONG TERM...JLT  
AVIATION...LS  
 
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