568  
FXUS63 KMPX 250003  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
703 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016  
 
A COLD FRONT THAT CAUSED ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL LAST  
NIGHT ALONG THE IOWA BORDER, HAD MOVED INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN  
THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND  
THIS FRONT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S IN WESTERN  
MINNESOTA.  
 
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS (DENSE CIRRUS) HAS MOVED NORTHWARD OUT OF  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND LIMITED FULL SUNSHINE FOR  
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THESE CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH  
THUNDERSTORM BLOW-OFF ACROSS KANSAS. HOWEVER, OTHER THAN HIGH  
CLOUDINESS, SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN  
DRY OVERNIGHT.  
 
A STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER, NORTH OF NORTH DAKOTA  
THIS AFTERNOON, WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE BORDER  
OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BOUNDARY  
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, BUT ANY  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016  
 
THE LONG TERM CONCERN REMAINS TIMING OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR  
THE WEEKEND.  
 
INITIALLY...COOLER AND DRY PERIOD IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS  
FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE A FEW DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL WITH PLEASANT DEWPOINTS.  
 
TH NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND  
SUNDAY AND SHOULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN AND THUNDER TO THE  
REGION. APPEARS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION LATER  
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE AREA SATURDAY  
NIGHT TOWARD THE UP OF MICHIGAN. WILL CONTINUE HIGHER END LIKELY  
POPS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS FOR SATURDAY AND WE MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE  
PARTS OF THE FAR EAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM  
EXITS THE AREA. PW'S INCREASE TO AROUND 1.80 INCHES OVER THE EAST  
DURING THE PERIOD SO ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GENERATE  
HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN.  
 
FOLLOWING THIS TROUGH...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE  
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY  
NIGHT...PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHORT  
WAVE BY MIDWEEK. ALONG WITH THE INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS  
INTO NEXT WEEK...WE EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016  
 
THERE WILL BE A STEADY STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS CORRESPONDING TO A  
100KT UPPER JET THIS EVENING AND THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. VFR IS  
EXPECTED WITH DRIER/COOLER AIR SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE AREA. THERE  
COULD BE A 3000-5000FT STRATO-CUMULUS DECK DEVELOPING TOMORROW  
AFTERNOON. NO RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OR  
TOMORROW.  
 
KMSP...  
 
QUIET WEATHER NIGHT OUT THERE WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND DECREASING  
WIND. MORE WIND TOMORROW OUT OF THE W-NW.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
FRI...VFR. WIND SSW 5 KTS.  
SAT...MVFR PSBL. TSRA LIKELY. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.  
SUN...MVFR PSBL EARLY. SHRA EARLY. WIND SW 5 KTS.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JLT  
LONG TERM...DWE  
AVIATION...CLF  
 
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