382  
FXUS63 KMPX 250357  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
1057 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2017  
 
THE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED  
ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA,  
AND EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE WEST.  
 
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS WHETHER ENOUGH  
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN WEST  
CENTRAL/CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
 
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY MOVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MOISTURE DEPTH  
REMAIN LIMITED IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND UPPER LEVEL  
ENERGY IS CONFINED TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE BETTER JET ENERGY  
EXISTS. ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE AMPLE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A  
FEW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN WEST CENTRAL, AND CENTRAL  
MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE, MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE WITH  
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. THIS COULD BE ONE  
OF THE WARMER DAYS IN THE NEXT SEVEN AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD  
REMAINS COOL.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2017  
 
MAIN POINTS OF DISCUSSION IN THE LONG TERM ARE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE  
FRIDAY AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT, AND FOR  
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA.  
 
BY TOMORROW EVENING, THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF INTEREST FOR  
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN  
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT  
DRAPED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THERE HAVE BEEN TIMING  
DIFFERENCES IN WHEN THIS FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH OUR REGION  
BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE FRONT WILL REACH THE MINNESOTA  
BORDER OVERNIGHT (EARLY FRIDAY A.M.) AND WORK EASTWARD THROUGH MN  
DURING THE DAY, AND IN WESTERN WI IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY  
NIGHT. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST WITH THIS IDEA, BUT THE SUITE OF  
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AT LEAST HAS MORE TIGHTLY PACKED THAN IN PREVIOUS  
RUNS. THE CANADIAN IS STILL MUCH SLOWER AND IS A SIGNIFICANT  
OUTLIER IN TIMING OF THE FRONT, SO LEANED TO A BLEND OF  
GFS/NAM/ECMWF. SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE  
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MN AND  
WESTERN WI BASED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.  
 
THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN AND  
BASICALLY SIT TO OUR NORTH IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND REPEATEDLY SEND  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DOWN IN CYCLONIC FLOW OF AND ON THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND, LEADING TO A FORECAST THAT IS LITTERED WITH CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND LIMITED CHANCES FOR THUNDER AS WELL AS TEMEPRATURES NEAR  
TO BELOW NORMAL AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS PERSISTING FOR DAYS.  
 
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AMPLIFIES, SO  
OUR UPPER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND DEEPEN WHILE HOLDING STEADY  
OVER OUR AREA. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH  
TEMPERATURES LOOKING COOLER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND COULD SEE  
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING NOW BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE INCHING IN  
FROM THE WEST NOW THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO EASTERLY IN  
DIRECTION. EXPECT THE MVFR CEILINGS TO REACH KRNH AND KEAU, BUT  
WILL MORE LIKELY BE OF A SCATTERED NATURE TO THE WEST AT KMSP.  
THERE COULD ALSO BE IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO  
BR/FOG (PRIMARILY AT KRNH/KEAU). AFTER 18Z THURSDAY ISOLATED  
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE (PRIMARILY IN WESTERN MN), WITH THE  
SLIGHT CHANCES EXPANDING EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
 
KMSP...  
STILL DO NOT THINK MVFR CEILINGS LOOK QUITE AS LIKELY AS THEY DID  
FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING, SO HAVE KEPT IT AT A FEW-SCT MENTION. ANY  
BROKEN LAYER WOULD MORE LIKELY BE ABOVE 1800 FT. WINDS VEER TO  
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID TEENS (KNOTS)  
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD NEAR  
THE FIELD BY 00Z FRIDAY, BUT THE PROBABILITY/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW  
TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC P.M. -SHRA/-TSRA. WIND W 5-10 KTS.  
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.  
MON...MVFR POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JLT  
LONG TERM...SPD  
AVIATION...LS  
 
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