790  
FXUS63 KMPX 262345  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
545 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2017  
 
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, TONIGHT AND MONDAY, LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET  
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY BISECTING THE AREA  
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH/EAST AND  
ESSENTIALLY WASH OUT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL TAKE THE FEW FLURRIES  
CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST OUT OF OUR AREA BY EVENING. WE COULD SEE A  
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA  
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES BY AND HELPS MOISTEN THINGS  
ENOUGH TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF AN  
INCIPIENT SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT. BUT, WOULDN'T EXPECT MUCH MORE  
THAN A DUSTING FROM THAT ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, WE'LL JUST  
SEE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY THIN SOME ON  
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO  
A THICKER DECK FOR MOST OF THE DAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2017  
 
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS  
LATE MONDAY NIGHT, AND INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT  
ON TRAVEL IF FREEZING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.  
 
THE EC & GFS DIFFER ON HOW THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE AND SOUTHERN  
SHORT WAVE INTERACT LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WHICH LEADS  
TO SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT AND OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS. THE GEM IS  
CLOSER TO THE GFS BUT HAS MORE ENERGY ON THE INITIAL WARM AIR  
ADVECTION REGIME WHICH PRODUCING MORE QPF IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA,  
AND INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
THE COMPARISON BETWEEN THE EC & GFS IS RELATED TO THE PHASING OF  
THE TWO WAVES. THE GFS HAS MORE INFLUENCE ON THE NORTHERN WAVE  
WHICH KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH/NORTHEAST OF MPX  
FORECAST AREA. THE EC KEEPS THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE FURTHER TO  
THE WEST AND ALLOWS MORE ENERGY NORTHWARD WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORT  
WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROADER AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO FORM  
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, VS THE GFS TUESDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE  
GEFS ALSO SUPPORTS THE DETERMINISTIC GFS WHICH KEEPS THE BULK OF  
THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.  
 
NEITHER THE GFS/EC DOESN'T SUPPORT A LOT OF QPF MONDAY  
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING  
MARK. THUS, IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS, IT SHOULD BE MORE DRIZZLE  
THAN STEADY RAINFALL AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH.  
THEREFORE, LEADING TO A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF ICING. THE FORECAST  
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MIXTURE OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION/SNOW  
IN AREAS WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE IS GREATEST IN CENTRAL  
MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.  
 
ANOTHER ELEMENT WHICH IS RELATED TO THE NORTHERN WAVE INFLUENCE OF  
THE GFS IS THE FASTER ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES, CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION OVER  
TO SNOW. HOWEVER, THE EC, WHICH HOLDS BOTH WAVES FURTHER TO THE  
WEST/SOUTHWEST, HOLDS ONTO THE PRECIPITATION LONGER AND  
EVENTUALLY CHANGES THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY,  
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS  
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TWIN CITIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN EXTENDED PERIOD WILL TRANSITION TO A COOL  
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MORE ZONAL FLOW  
DEVELOPS AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODIFY NEXT WEEKEND. 40S/50S  
ARE STILL LIKELY FOR NEXT SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2017  
 
A COLD FRONT MEANDERS FROM NORTH OF KEAU ON WEST ACROSS THE SOUTH  
METRO TO SOUTH OF KRWF. THE FRONT WILL STALL THIS EVENING WITH THE  
WESTERN END BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT  
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL, IT'S ESSENTIALLY A VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE EARLY  
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AROUND KAXN WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR  
-SN IS POSSIBLE. THIS EXPECTED IS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND WILL  
MOVE NORTHEAST, MISSING THE OTHER TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR  
SCT-BKN050-090 AT THE SITES DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT WNW WINDS  
EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING ESE AND THEN S 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY.  
 
KMSP...FEW CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS  
PREVAILING.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF  
LIGHT RAIN. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.  
TUESDAY...MVFR EXPECTED, IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW.  
SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KT BECOMING WEST.  
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.  
NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. NORTHWEST  
WIND 5 TO 15 KT BECOMING NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KT.  
THURSDAY...VFR. NORTH WIND 5 TO 15 KT.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...  
LONG TERM...JLT  
AVIATION...RAH  
 
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