952  
FXUS63 KMPX 230538  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
1138 PM CST THU FEB 22 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST THU FEB 22 2018  
 
SNOW IS ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA THIS  
AFTERNOON. IT WILL REACH JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF  
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN BY 6 OR 7 PM. LIGHT TO MODERATE  
SNOW WILL PERSIST AREA WIDE THROUGH MIDNIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO END  
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE STEADY SNOW WILL END IN  
SOUTHWEST MN AROUND 1 AM AND THE I-94 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 4 AM.  
DURING THIS PROCESS OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS, THERE COULD BE A  
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOLLOWING THE END OF ACCUMULATING SNOW  
DUE TO CONTINUED SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL  
BE BRIEF AND LITTLE OR NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  
 
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH QPF TONIGHT. THERE COULD  
BE SOME MESOSCALE BANDING IN PLACES AND HI-RES GUIDANCE IS HINTING  
AT STREAKS OF HIGHER QPF/SNOWFALL. HOWEVER, ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS  
WE SHOULD EXPECT ABOUT 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE  
PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE SHORTEST, TO 4 TO 6 INCHES  
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CURRENT WINTER  
WEATHER ADVISORY CONFIGURATION LOOKS GOOD, SO NO CHANGES WERE  
NEEDED TO THAT.  
 
DRIER AIR WILL MAKE FOR A RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY FRIDAY WITH  
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS POSSIBLE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST THU FEB 22 2018  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY LOOK GOOD, BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IS  
FAST ON THE HEELS OF TONIGHT'S SYSTEM AND WILL BEGIN ARRIVING  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NEUTRALLY TILTED TO START  
FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE PLAINS, BUT WILL TREND MORE NEGATIVE  
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  
THIS LENDS TO A HIGHER CONFIDENCE EVENT WITH WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT  
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. 12Z GFS IS MOST BULLISH/QUICKEST WITH THE MID  
LEVEL WAVE CLOSING OFF AND RESULTS IN A STRONG CYCLONE CENTERED  
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF MN LATE SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE  
BEEN SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. IN ADDITION, THE GFS  
DETERMINISTIC RUN IS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SPREAD OF SLP/QPF  
IN THE GEFS SOLUTIONS, WITH THE LOWEST MEMBER STILL SHOWING AT  
LEAST 0.6" OF QPF AT MSP. THUS, CONFIDENCE IN 6 INCH AMOUNTS IS  
PRETTY HIGH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN TO NORTHWEST WI AND TOTALS COULD  
APPROACH 12 INCHES SOMEWHERE IN THAT CORRIDOR. SNOWFALL RATES WILL  
BE IMPRESSIVE WITH AN INCH OR TWO PER HOUR POSSIBLE DURING THE  
HEIGHT OF THE EVENT. AS FOR WIND, THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW  
CENTER PASSING BY COULD BE OCCURRING A LITTLE TOO LATE FOR THE  
WIND TO RESPOND AND INCREASE TO CRITICAL LEVELS FOR BLIZZARD  
CONDITIONS. THEREFORE, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE STILL QUESTIONABLE,  
BUT CERTAINLY NOT IMPOSSIBLE IF GUSTS CAN INCREASE 5 TO 10 MPH  
ABOVE WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.  
 
GIVEN THAT WE'RE WITHIN A 48 HOUR WINDOW OF THE SNOW BEGINNING,  
AND THE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE PRESENT, HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM  
WATCH FOR MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR FAR WESTERN MN. IT'S  
POSSIBLE THOSE COUNTIES WILL BE INCLUDED LATER IF CONFIDENCE  
INCREASES FOR GREATER THAN 6 INCHES. ALL TOLD, IT'S LIKELY MOST OF  
THE CWA WILL SEE OVER 12 INCHES BETWEEN TONIGHT'S SNOW AND  
SATURDAY'S, AND SOME COULD EXCEED 15 INCHES.  
 
MUCH MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE  
ARE SIGNS OF ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK THAT WILL NEED TO  
BE WATCHED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU FEB 22 2018  
 
FEW CHANGES IN THE TAFS IN TERMS OF ONGOING SNOWFALL. WHERE THERE  
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IS WITH HOW CIGS WILL BEHAVE IN THE  
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW. THE RAP/HRRR SHOWS CIGS CLEARING  
QUICKLY THIS MORNING, BUT WE'LL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE HANGING  
AROUND TO RESULT IN CLOUD PATCHES HANGING AROUND. FOLLOWED CLOSEST  
THE RAP FOR SHOWING SOME IMPROVENTS GIVEN SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE  
OF THE SNOW THAT SHOULD HELP CLEAR THE CLOUDS SOME.  
 
KMSP...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE SNOW PORTION OF THE FORECAST, BUT  
LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIGS THROUGH THE DAY. WE COULD CLEAR OUT BY 15Z  
AND STAY VFR, CLEAR OUT FOR A BIT IN THE MORNING, BUT CLOUD BACK  
IN WITH AFTERNOON MIXING, OR NEVER LOSE THE CLOUDS.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
SAT...VFR EARLY. THEN IFR/SN WITH LIFR POSSIBLE IN AFTN AND  
OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS POSSIBLE. WIND ENE 5-15 KTS.  
SUN...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND W 10-20 KTS.  
MON...VFR. WIN SW 5-10 KTS.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY  
NIGHT FOR WIZ014>016-023>028.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR WIZ014>016-  
023>028.  
 
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ041-042-  
047>049-051-057>060-062-066>070-076>078-085.  
 
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY  
NIGHT FOR MNZ043>045-049>053-057>063-066>070-076>078-084-  
085-093.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ043>045-050-  
052-053-061-063.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ054>056-064-  
065-073>075-082>084-091>093.  
 
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY  
NIGHT FOR MNZ056-064-065-073>075-082-083-091-092.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF  
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF  
AVIATION...MPG  
 
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