296  
FXUS63 KMPX 010726  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
226 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016  
 
THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CLOUD EXTENT TODAY AND COOLER  
TEMPERATURES INTO TONIGHT.  
 
LATEST SURFACE CHART AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LOWER  
CLOUDS DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH WITH CAA PATTERN OVER THE REGION.  
STRONGEST CAA IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AND MAY HAVE TO  
HOLD ONTO CLOUDS A BIT LONGER THIS MORNING. TREND SHOULD BE TO  
BREAK UP HOWEVER...AS DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTH. COOL POCKET OF AIR AT  
H85 OF +6 TO +8C SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S IN  
WESTERN WISCONSIN...WITH SOME MID 70S IN WESTERN MINNESOTA.  
SUNSHINE SHOULD BE PREVALENT MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE  
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHEAST.  
 
TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST  
OVER THE WEST. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY EXPECTED...AT  
LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY IN  
THE RIVER VALLEYS. WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE UPPER  
40S TO THE EAST WITH MID 50S TO THE WEST.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE SIMPLY  
FANTASTIC DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND  
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THE RESULT  
WILL BE A MIX OF SUN AND MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS WITH SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM  
NORTHWEST TO SLIGHT RIDGING BY MONDAY, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR  
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. HIGHS WILL RISE FROM THE MID- UPPER 70S SATURDAY-SUNDAY TO  
THE LOWER 80S ON MONDAY.  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF TO  
THE EAST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO VACATING TO THE EAST. IN THEIR PLACE,  
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WSW-ESE AND PROGRESSIVE, ALLOWING A  
PAIR OF QUICK-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION  
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AND THEN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE WARMING TREND  
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GIVEN THE MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY LOW  
LEVEL FLOW AND THE INFLUX OF A WARMER AIRMASS FROM THE  
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. HIGHS WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S AND EVEN HIT  
SOME LOWER 90S IN SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE  
WEEK. AS FOR PRECIPITATION, IT IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC TO PIN DOWN  
ONE TIME PERIOD OVER ANOTHER AS FOR WHICH WOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS  
OF TIMING FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, WITH TEMPERATURES  
RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70, THE INCREASED  
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH EITHER FRONTAL LIFT AND/OR SPEED MAXES  
ALOFT COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAIN AND/OR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS  
FROM TIME TO TIME. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS FAIRLY  
LOW BUT IT IS NON-ZERO.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016  
 
MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. PATCHY FOG CAN NOT  
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN WI, AND THERE IS A BAND OF STRATUS  
CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 2500-3500FT DROPPING SOUTH. WE THINK  
THIS BAND OF CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME.  
 
KMSP...VFR WITH LITTLE TO NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH  
THE TAF PERIOD. WIND WILL GO LIGHT TONIGHT.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
SAT...VFR. WIND SE AT 5 KT.  
SUN...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KT.  
MON...VFR. WIND S 5-10 KT.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DWE  
LONG TERM...JPC  
AVIATION...CLF  
 
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