817  
FXUS63 KMPX 262011  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
311 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017  
 
EARLIER TODAY, TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION MOVED NORTHWARD ACROSS  
MINNESOTA, AND SETTLED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST, AND THE ARROWHEAD  
REGION OF MINNESOTA. ALTHOUGH REGIONAL RADAR, SURFACE  
OBSERVATIONS, AND AREA WEBCAMS INDICATED SOME LIGHT RAIN, MIXED  
WITH SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA, MOST AREAS  
WERE DRY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH  
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER  
MIDWEST. THIS WAS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHERE  
SOME ENHANCEMENT WAS NOTED IN WESTERN MINNESOTA.  
 
THE BEST AREA OF RECEIVING ANY "MEASURABLE" PRECIPITATION  
OVERNIGHT, AND THURSDAY, WILL OCCUR AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE MOVES  
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THEREFORE, THE BEST AREA WILL  
REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA, AND THEN EAST TOWARD NORTHERN  
WISCONSIN THURSDAY. THIS IS ALSO WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES,  
BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE ON ICE FORMATION, HENCE,  
LIMITING THE CHANCES OF SNOW VS. DRIZZLE. DEPENDING UPON ANOTHER  
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOMORROW,  
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL IN PORTIONS OF WEST  
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE MAIN AREA AFFECTED WOULD BE RUSK, CHIPPEWA  
AND EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES. THIS AREA DOES HAVE HIGHER PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES DUE TO THIS FACTOR. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY OVER THE NEXT 24  
HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. SOME FREEZING  
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA  
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HASN'T STARTED. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER AND  
BRISK WINDS WILL KEEP MOST AREAS IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA NEAR OR  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. THOSE WHO HAVE TENDER PLANTS OUTSIDE  
SHOULD PLACE THEM INDOORS JUST TO BE ON THE SAVE SIDE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017  
 
THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE LATER PERIODS CONTINUES TO BE THE  
SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN  
THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. OVERALL, WE LOOK TO REMAIN IN A LONG  
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD, SO IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, THEY  
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, SO IT WON'T BE THE GREATEST TIME TO GET  
OUTDOOR SPRING WORK DONE.  
 
WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS FINALLY START TO WORK OUT OF THE AREA  
TOMORROW NIGHT, WHICH COULD PRESENT ISSUES FOR FROST/FREEZE  
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF. HOWEVER, THERE  
REMAINS SOME VARIABILITY IN THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD  
COVER, SO AT THIS POINT CHOSE TO SIMPLY INCLUDE A MENTION OF FROST  
IN THE FORECAST, AND HOPEFULLY SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS CAN DETERMINE IF  
A HEADLINE IS NEEDED.  
 
WE'LL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER  
CANADA LATER TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS  
DRY BUT COOL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC  
ZONE TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY, BUT IF ANYTHING THE GUIDANCE HAS  
TRENDED SOUTH WITH THIS OVER TIME, AND NOW IT DOESN'T APPEAR THAT  
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. AFTER THAT WE WILL  
AWAIT THE SYSTEM FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE  
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE  
DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH  
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND ITS EXACT TRACK STILL LOOK TO COMPLICATE  
THE SCENARIO WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE AND AMOUNTS.  
THESE SPRING SYSTEMS OFTEN PRODUCE MORE SNOW THAN EXPECTED, WITH  
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES THAT SEEM TO WARM OFTEN COOLING  
QUICKLY DURING HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. SO, FEEL WE'LL CERTAINLY SEE  
SOME MIX/CHANGE TO SNOW OVER PART OF THE AREA, PARTICULARLY  
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOPEFULLY THINGS WILL COME INTO BETTER  
AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF FORECAST PROFILES AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES  
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALLOWING FOR REFINEMENT OF THINGS AS WE  
GET INTO THE PERIOD WHEN ACTUAL AMOUNTS NEED TO BE FORECAST. WE  
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE WORK IN MONDAY NIGHT TO  
DRY THINGS OUT, WITH MAINLY DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. SOME  
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION MAY WORK BACK INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS  
A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPS INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017  
 
AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD  
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW, MIXED WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE AT  
TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. ANY  
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINOR AND NOT EXPECTING ANY ICE  
ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH/NORTH-NORTHWEST  
AT 10-15 KTS, WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S IN WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL  
AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE  
WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT, AND THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
KMSP...  
 
CIGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 1.7K THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, AND INTO  
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON THIS SCENARIO. SOME LIGHT  
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW  
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, NO ICE OR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. CIGS  
WILL BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE 1.7K BY THURSDAY MORNING, AND BECOME VFR  
IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON,  
AND BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
 
FRI...MAINLY VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.  
SAT...MAINLY VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.  
SUN...VFR, BCMG MVFR/IFR WITH -RA. WINDS NE 10-15G 20-25 KTS.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JLT  
LONG TERM...  
AVIATION...JLT  
 
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