179  
FXUS63 KMPX 170851  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
351 AM CDT TUE OCT 17 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE OCT 17 2017  
 
SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WITH  
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN WINDS USHERING IN MILDER AIR ACROSS MINNESOTA,  
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE AFTERNOON MIXING LAYER  
ALOFT WILL BE 1-3C DEGREES WARMER THAN ON MONDAY. THUS, 70S ARE A  
GOOD BET ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, AND INTO WESTERN  
WISCONSIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW OUTLIER IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE  
LEE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. TONIGHT WILL BE  
MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE OCT 17 2017  
 
THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WAS TO RAISE TEMPERATURES  
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE.  
HIGHS OVERACHIEVED MONDAY AND AM EXPECTING THAT TREND TO CONTINUE.  
MIXING TO 850 MB WAS THE PRIMARY METHOD OF DERIVING HIGHS, BUT  
DID BLEND THAT WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE TO PRESERVE  
LOCAL EFFECTS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE REACHED BY EARLY  
AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE COOLER AIRMASS  
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH WITH WAA ALREADY RESUMING LATE  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY LOOKS AT LEAST AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY,  
POSSIBLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ACROSS WESTERN MN. FRIDAY WILL BE  
THE WARMEST OF THE STRETCH WITH ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING MID TO UPPER  
70S WHEN MIXING DOWN FROM 850 MB. GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD MAKE  
THESE VALUES REACHABLE, EVEN IF WE HAVE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUD  
COVER IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
CONSISTENCY ISSUES WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AND  
SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT RESULTED IN A LOWERING  
OF POPS THIS WEEKEND. GFS/GEM ARE DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND STORMS  
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON. THE EURO IS 6-12 HOURS LATER AND FAVORS PRECIP MORE  
SATURDAY EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE RAIN AT SOME POINT,  
BUT IT'S TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT THE BEST TIME AT ANY GIVEN  
LOCATION.  
 
THE PATTERN SHIFTS NEXT WEEK. GREENLAND BLOCKING IS LOOKING  
INCREASINGLY LIKELY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN GOOD TROUGHING FROM THE  
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THEREFORE,  
THIS WEEK IS ALMOST CERTAINLY GOING TO BE THE WARMEST UNTIL NEXT  
SPRING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT TUE OCT 17 2017  
 
NO AVIATION CONCERNS WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE  
STATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN  
BORDER TUESDAY, WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH BY MID/LATE  
MORNING.  
 
KMSP...  
 
NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
 
WED...VFR. WINDS SW BCMG W 5-10 KTS.  
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.  
FRI...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JLT  
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF  
AVIATION...JLT  
 
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