861
FXUS63 KMPX 072108
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
308 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
DISCUSSION
AREA UNDER MILD ZONAL FLOW TODAY...WITH WEAK COLD FRONT NOW WELL
SE OF CWA. VERY DRY AND MILD PAC HIGH IS SETTLING OVER SRN MN
RESULTING IN THE VERY MILD AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAIN THEME FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND A
HALF WILL BE FOR ANOMALOUSLY DEEP H5 HEIGHTS TO REMAIN OVER
ALASKA...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR W TO SW FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER.
FOR TONIGHT...BUMPED UP LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVED
LOWS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN THE UPPER 30S AND EXPECTED
INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. BROUGHT NUMBERS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WARMER MAV/MET GUIDANCE. FOR RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO
SUNDAY...12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUE TO PAINT A BLEAK PICTURE
FOR SEEING RAINFALL. UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE BRINGING IN RAIN
CHANCES IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE PAC NW. IT IS FORECAST TO QUICK
RIDE THROUGH ZONAL FLOW...LEADING TO SOME WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE FRONT OF NEB/IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SEND
THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...SPREADING CLOUD COVER BACK
INTO THE AREA. FOR RAIN...CURRENT RHS IN THE LOW 20S RIGHT NOW ARE
A SIGN OF WHAT ANY RAINFALL MUST OVERCOME TOMORROW IF IT IS TO
REACH THE SFC. THE FORCING FOR THE PRECIP IS THERE...BUT ALL
RATHER WEAK...WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST OVER CENTRAL MN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO STILL BE FAIRLY DRY. TO TOP IT OFF...SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. SO...ONLY EXPECT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN HALF OF CWA...TRANSITIONING OVER
TO WEST CENT WIS IN THE EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL HOLD BACK
TEMPERATURES FROM WHAT WAS SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SUN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS SET
IN. SO HAVE INCREASED SUNDAYS HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 50S EXPECTED...10 AS OPPOSED TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
FOR NEXT WEEK...DRY PAC HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
THURSDAY. EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH ANY CONCERNS
TURNING TO FIRE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AREA
GETS ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH AND SRLY WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE WITH
TEMPERATURES. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT A DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING THE REGION SOMEWHERE IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN AND
MODEL TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THIS TIME
FRAME...NOT FEELING TO CONFIDENT IN HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT...SO
BASICALLY STUCK WITH 20 POPS FOR NOW AND WILL SEE WHERE THINGS GO IN
THE FUTURE.
AVIATION
/18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
JUST A FEW CLOUDS ATTM. MAIN TAF CONCERN IS WIND THIS AFTERNOON.
VERY STRONG WIND OF 40 KNOTS AT 2K MSL ON THE KMPX SOUNDING...
LAUNCHED AT 11Z. HOWEVER THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM THE 88D HAS
THAT DOWN TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS NOW. A SIMILAR DROP HAS OCCURRED AT
ABERDEEN. SFC HIGH IN CENTRAL SD BUILDING INTO MN AND SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THIS EVENING. WITHOUT SIG MIXING THIS AFTERNOON... WINDS
WILL LOSE GUSTINESS AND DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. COULD SEE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT MSP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT 10 KNOTS SHOULD WORK FOR THE MOST PART. WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TONIGHT AND BE OUT OF THE ESE AS SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS
SRN MN INTO WISC. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGHS CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE
TONIGHT AS SHOWN BY SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS. SOME QUESTION NOW
ON THE 12Z MODELS AS TO THE EXTENT OR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MPG/TDK
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