127
FXUS63 KMPX 041717 AAA
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1215 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 314 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
PRECIP STARTING TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AS BETTER
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA E ADVECTION FOCUSES MORE OVER IOWA...BUT
THERE SEEMS TO BE A CONVERGENCE AXIS AROUND 850 MB LEVEL SSW OF
MSP AREA WITH LIGHT S WINDS NOTED ON THE KMPX VAD PROFILE AND 15
KNOT WINDS ON THE KWDL PROFILE. RUC SHOWING PERSISTENT...ALTHOUGH
LIGHT...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL MN AS WELL. WILL KEEP A LITTLE HIGHER POPS OVER A
FEW AREAS OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE THERE IS STILL AN
E-W ORIENTED INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS OVER
SOUTHERN MN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS IN CENTRAL MN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A SMALL POP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTH AND
ADD ISOLATED THUNDER. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...BUT A NW UPPER JET FROM N MN
INTO THE GREAT LAKES..COMBINED WITH WEAK WARM/INSTABILITY
ADVECTION INTO SW MN MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE WIDELY SCT SHOWER OR
TSTM OVER SW MN. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...BUT
AFTER COORD WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...WILL JUST STICK WITH A SLIGHT
CHC FOR NOW. A MORE TYPICAL MID SUMMER TYPE OF SYSTEM FORECAST TO
CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WED INTO THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE AN
MCS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THAT MAY AFFECT THE W PART OF THE CWA WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER AIR. THE COLD FRONT THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THU OR THU NIGHT WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. TEMPS
SLOWLY RISING TOWARD THE UPPER 80S BY WED AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
/18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WV IMAGERY SHOWS WK SHRTWV MVG ACRS SC MN WITH MID CLDS BGNNG TO
THIN A BIT IN SW MN. THINNING TRND SHW CONT DRNG AFTN. WK SFC CONV
ACRS W WI WITH NARROW AXIS OF MARGINALLY UNSTBL AIR HAS BGN TO DVLP
ISOL TSTMS IN WC WI WITH SM INCRS IN DVLPMT XTNDG S OF MSP TO S OF
ULM. 12Z MM4 LAYER COMP REFL HAS PICKED UP ON THIS DVLPMT QUITE
WELL. WILL INCLUDE VCNT TSTM AT EAU WITH MENTION OF CB AT MSP/RNH.
OTHER SHWRS BGNNG TO DVLP IN NODAK INTO NE SODAK AHED OF SHRTWV MVG
ACS MB INTO NODAK. THESE MAY AFFECT AXN/RWF LTR IN TAF PRD...BUT
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM. SM THREAT OF FOG AT EAU OVRNITE WITH
SHWRS TDY AND THEN LGT WNDS OVRNITE.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
BAP/JPR
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