174  
FGUS73 KEAX 201844  
ESFEAX  
MOC001-003-005-021-033-037-041-047-053-061-075-079-083-087-089-095-  
101-115-117-121-147-159-165-171-177-195-197-KSC005-091-103-210000-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
144 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 06/24/2017 - 09/22/2017  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:DELAWARE RIVER  
MUSCOTAH 27.0 28.0 36.0 : 39 38 37 35 <5 <5  
:STRANGER CREEK  
EASTON 17.0 18.0 23.0 : 66 67 61 62 6 5  
TONGANOXIE 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 51 50 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:KANSAS RIVER  
DE SOTO 26.0 33.0 36.0 : <5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:TARKIO RIVER  
FAIRFAX 17.0 18.0 25.0 : 53 50 46 45 30 21  
:NODAWAY RIVER  
BURLINGTON JUNCTI 23.0 28.0 35.0 : 16 11 7 5 <5 <5  
:102 RIVER  
MARYVILLE 18.0 23.0 28.0 : 37 35 14 8 <5 <5  
ROSENDALE 18.0 18.1 23.0 : 36 36 36 35 5 <5  
:PLATTE RIVER  
AGENCY 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 50 50 34 27 7 5  
:LITTLE PLATTE RIVER  
SMITHVILLE 27.0 30.5 35.0 : 21 20 10 6 <5 <5  
:PLATTE RIVER  
SHARPS STATION 26.0 29.0 33.0 : 47 44 33 37 6 6  
PLATTE CITY 20.0 25.0 29.0 : 47 44 14 19 5 5  
:BLUE RIVER  
BLUE RIDGE BOULEV 35.0 39.0 48.0 : 17 20 5 6 <5 <5  
BANNISTER ROAD 34.0 40.0 42.0 : 8 11 <5 <5 <5 <5  
71 HIGHWAY 61.0 66.0 68.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
63RD STREET 48.0 53.0 55.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
COLORADO AVENUE 56.0 61.0 67.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
STADIUM DRIVE 33.0 39.0 43.0 : 8 7 <5 <5 <5 <5  
40 HIGHWAY 30.0 35.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
17TH STREET 24.0 25.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
12TH STREET 30.0 35.0 40.0 : 5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER  
LAKE CITY 18.0 25.0 27.0 : 28 25 5 5 <5 <5  
:CROOKED RIVER  
RICHMOND 20.0 21.0 29.0 : 43 44 42 42 <5 <5  
:WAKENDA CREEK  
CARROLLTON 16.0 19.0 21.0 : 44 42 40 35 24 23  
:BLACKWATER RIVER  
VALLEY CITY 22.0 25.0 31.0 : 50 48 45 42 21 23  
BLUE LICK 24.0 29.0 37.0 : 55 54 34 38 <5 <5  
:LAMINE RIVER  
OTTERVILLE 15.0 18.0 26.0 : 45 37 38 29 5 6  
:MONITEAU CREEK  
FAYETTE 16.0 21.0 25.0 : 38 38 15 18 <5 <5  
:PETITE SALINE CREEK  
BOONVILLE 16.0 19.5 26.0 : 29 28 18 15 <5 <5  
:THOMPSON RIVER  
TRENTON 30.0 33.0 37.0 : 11 14 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:GRAND RIVER  
PATTONSBURG 25.0 30.0 32.0 : 28 30 15 22 12 17  
GALLATIN 26.0 33.0 39.0 : 19 29 6 8 <5 <5  
CHILLICOTHE 24.0 28.0 35.0 : 56 54 36 46 11 11  
SUMNER 26.0 28.0 40.0 : 64 66 62 63 <5 5  
:CHARITON RIVER  
NOVINGER 20.0 23.0 26.0 : 27 19 14 12 8 9  
PRAIRIE HILL 15.0 19.0 21.0 : 49 40 23 18 12 10  
:SOUTH GRAND RIVER  
URICH 24.0 26.0 33.0 : 47 48 41 42 <5 <5  
:BIG CREEK  
BLAIRSTOWN 20.0 23.0 36.0 : 56 57 44 46 5 5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 06/24/2017 - 09/22/2017  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:DELAWARE RIVER  
MUSCOTAH 3.5 6.3 9.7 22.7 30.4 31.6 32.7  
:STRANGER CREEK  
EASTON 4.5 6.0 13.5 19.8 21.3 22.1 23.1  
TONGANOXIE 4.8 8.0 13.6 23.9 26.2 27.3 27.8  
:KANSAS RIVER  
DE SOTO 8.2 9.5 11.1 14.1 17.7 25.2 25.6  
:TARKIO RIVER  
FAIRFAX 7.6 8.1 10.3 17.5 26.4 28.8 29.3  
:NODAWAY RIVER  
BURLINGTON JUNCTI 7.3 7.3 9.4 12.4 19.2 26.6 30.0  
:102 RIVER  
MARYVILLE 8.6 8.6 10.3 15.2 20.2 24.2 25.9  
ROSENDALE 3.8 6.9 10.2 16.0 20.2 22.6 23.1  
:PLATTE RIVER  
AGENCY 8.8 11.2 14.3 20.0 25.9 28.4 30.8  
:LITTLE PLATTE RIVER  
SMITHVILLE 13.4 13.5 14.2 16.7 24.4 30.4 33.9  
:PLATTE RIVER  
SHARPS STATION 8.1 10.6 16.7 25.7 30.0 32.0 33.6  
PLATTE CITY 4.0 7.0 11.6 19.7 23.9 27.0 28.8  
:BLUE RIVER  
BLUE RIDGE BOULEV 26.1 26.3 26.7 27.9 32.1 36.7 39.6  
BANNISTER ROAD 8.2 8.4 9.7 17.0 26.6 33.6 37.4  
71 HIGHWAY 35.5 35.7 37.0 42.8 50.5 54.4 58.2  
63RD STREET 25.3 25.4 25.9 29.5 37.1 42.8 46.2  
COLORADO AVENUE 35.1 35.4 36.7 41.9 47.8 51.3 55.5  
STADIUM DRIVE 9.1 9.3 10.7 18.3 25.6 31.6 34.7  
40 HIGHWAY 4.8 4.9 6.0 11.4 18.4 22.8 26.8  
17TH STREET 2.3 2.4 3.2 8.2 14.6 18.8 21.9  
12TH STREET 7.6 7.8 10.6 16.7 22.6 26.9 30.1  
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER  
LAKE CITY 5.5 5.5 6.4 11.1 18.2 23.1 24.9  
:CROOKED RIVER  
RICHMOND 6.5 6.5 7.5 17.5 24.6 27.1 27.9  
:THOMPSON RIVER  
TRENTON 11.1 11.4 13.0 17.8 25.8 30.1 31.1  
:GRAND RIVER  
PATTONSBURG 3.9 4.4 7.8 14.8 26.9 33.6 39.2  
GALLATIN 4.5 5.2 7.5 14.2 24.2 29.8 35.4  
CHILLICOTHE 7.6 9.3 14.3 25.5 29.9 35.3 38.8  
SUMNER 12.2 14.2 19.8 31.6 34.3 36.5 39.5  
:CHARITON RIVER  
NOVINGER 1.8 1.8 4.3 14.5 20.4 24.2 28.2  
PRAIRIE HILL 2.5 2.6 6.2 14.7 18.3 21.3 22.0  
:SOUTH GRAND RIVER  
URICH 3.2 8.7 13.2 22.9 27.4 28.9 29.0  
:BIG CREEK  
BLAIRSTOWN 12.3 14.7 17.3 21.5 26.2 29.1 35.7  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 06/24/2017 - 09/22/2017  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:DELAWARE RIVER  
MUSCOTAH 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.7  
:STRANGER CREEK  
EASTON 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.7 1.7  
TONGANOXIE 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5  
:KANSAS RIVER  
DE SOTO 7.0 5.5 5.3 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.4  
:TARKIO RIVER  
FAIRFAX 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3  
:NODAWAY RIVER  
BURLINGTON JUNCTI 4.7 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1  
:102 RIVER  
MARYVILLE 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7  
ROSENDALE 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0  
:PLATTE RIVER  
AGENCY 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.2  
:LITTLE PLATTE RIVER  
SMITHVILLE 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.3  
:PLATTE RIVER  
SHARPS STATION 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4  
PLATTE CITY -1.7 -1.9 -2.3 -2.5 -2.6 -2.7 -2.7  
:BLUE RIVER  
BLUE RIDGE BOULEV 24.7 24.7 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6  
BANNISTER ROAD 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2  
71 HIGHWAY 32.0 32.0 32.0 32.0 31.9 31.9 31.9  
63RD STREET 22.4 22.4 22.1 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0  
COLORADO AVENUE 29.1 29.1 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3  
STADIUM DRIVE 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3  
40 HIGHWAY -1.3 -1.3 -1.4 -1.4 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5  
17TH STREET -1.0 -1.1 -1.3 -1.3 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4  
12TH STREET 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0  
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER  
LAKE CITY 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3  
:CROOKED RIVER  
RICHMOND 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 4.9 4.9 4.9  
:THOMPSON RIVER  
TRENTON 10.1 10.0 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0  
:GRAND RIVER  
PATTONSBURG 2.3 2.1 1.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8  
GALLATIN 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2  
CHILLICOTHE 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0  
SUMNER 7.9 7.6 7.2 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6  
:CHARITON RIVER  
NOVINGER -0.7 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2  
PRAIRIE HILL 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1  
:SOUTH GRAND RIVER  
URICH 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2  
:BIG CREEK  
BLAIRSTOWN 9.2 8.8 7.8 7.5 7.2 7.1 6.9  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/EAX FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 

 
 
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