149  
FGUS73 KLSX 062147  
ESFLSX  
ILC001-009-013-027-051-149-MOC051-053-071-073-099-111-113-127-  
137-151-163-173-183-189-221-080000-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST. LOUIS MO  
332 PM CST WED DEC 06 2017  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 11/26/2017 - 02/24/2018  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
CANTON LD20 14.0 20.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
LAGRANGE 18.0 23.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
QUINCY 17.0 22.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
QUINCY LD21 17.0 21.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
HANNIBAL 16.0 22.0 24.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
SAVERTON LD22 16.0 20.0 22.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
LOUISIANA 15.0 20.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
CLARKSVILLE LD24 25.0 31.0 33.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
WINFIELD LD25 26.0 30.0 34.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:NORTH FABIUS RIVER  
EWING 11.0 14.0 18.0 : 12 30 <5 14 <5 <5  
:MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER  
EWING 12.0 17.0 19.5 : 15 24 <5 8 <5 <5  
:SOUTH FABIUS RIVER  
TAYLOR 9.5 14.0 19.0 : 9 26 <5 7 <5 <5  
:NORTH RIVER  
PALMYRA 13.0 16.0 22.0 : 18 27 8 20 <5 <5  
:MID FORK SALT RIVER  
HOLLIDAY 17.0 22.0 26.0 : <5 24 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SALT RIVER  
NEW LONDON 19.0 25.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:CUIVRE RIVER  
TROY 21.0 25.0 29.0 : 32 34 6 6 <5 <5  
OLD MONROE 24.0 27.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:DARDENNE CREEK  
ST. PETERS 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 31 30 11 10 <5 <5  
:BOURBEUSE RIVER  
UNION 15.0 22.0 26.0 : 23 37 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BIG RIVER  
BYRNESVILLE 16.0 20.0 28.0 : 25 36 <5 10 <5 <5  
:MERAMEC RIVER  
STEELVILLE 12.0 20.0 25.0 : 10 27 <5 <5 <5 <5  
SULLIVAN 11.0 20.0 29.0 : 20 46 <5 7 <5 <5  
PACIFIC 15.0 23.0 27.0 : 11 33 <5 <5 <5 <5  
EUREKA 19.0 26.0 31.0 : 8 28 <5 5 <5 <5  
:KASKASKIA RIVER  
VANDALIA 18.0 24.0 26.0 : 57 60 23 32 12 12  
CARLYLE TW 423.5 431.0 435.0 : 17 31 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:LA MOINE RIVER  
RIPLEY 22.0 23.0 27.0 : 16 23 13 22 <5 <5  
:MOREAU RIVER  
JEFFERSON CITY 17.0 25.0 29.0 : 54 49 12 11 5 6  
:MARIES RIVER  
WESTPHALIA 10.0 15.0 20.0 : 14 36 <5 6 <5 <5  
:GASCONADE RIVER  
RICH FOUNTAIN 20.0 25.0 30.0 : <5 21 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BLACK RIVER  
ANNAPOLIS 8.0 15.0 25.0 : 90 95 90 95 90 95  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 11/26/2017 - 02/24/2018  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
CANTON LD20 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.8 8.6 9.9 11.4  
LAGRANGE 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.7 9.5 10.8 12.3  
QUINCY 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.8 13.5 14.6  
QUINCY LD21 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.6 9.3 11.2 12.8  
HANNIBAL 10.7 10.7 10.7 11.2 12.2 13.6 14.1  
SAVERTON LD22 6.8 6.8 6.8 7.7 9.3 11.5 12.5  
LOUISIANA 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.5 13.0  
CLARKSVILLE LD24 16.6 16.6 16.6 17.9 19.5 21.7 22.5  
WINFIELD LD25 16.4 16.4 16.5 17.8 19.4 21.8 22.8  
:NORTH FABIUS RIVER  
EWING 4.1 4.8 6.0 8.0 9.7 12.2 13.7  
:MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER  
EWING 3.6 4.4 5.6 8.7 10.7 13.8 15.5  
:SOUTH FABIUS RIVER  
TAYLOR 3.3 3.7 4.6 6.4 7.8 8.9 11.0  
:NORTH RIVER  
PALMYRA 4.9 5.3 7.0 8.8 11.7 14.9 18.5  
:MID FORK SALT RIVER  
HOLLIDAY 4.4 4.7 5.7 7.9 11.8 14.7 15.9  
:SALT RIVER  
NEW LONDON 2.2 2.4 3.4 5.2 7.6 9.3 11.7  
:CUIVRE RIVER  
TROY 8.5 9.0 12.2 16.7 22.0 23.1 25.9  
OLD MONROE 12.4 12.4 12.5 14.8 16.5 18.6 22.2  
:DARDENNE CREEK  
ST. PETERS 7.2 9.2 11.1 13.8 18.5 20.1 20.6  
:BOURBEUSE RIVER  
UNION 1.7 1.8 3.8 8.8 14.0 18.6 21.9  
:BIG RIVER  
BYRNESVILLE 2.4 2.8 4.0 6.9 16.0 17.7 18.9  
:MERAMEC RIVER  
STEELVILLE 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.9 6.9 12.0 16.4  
SULLIVAN 3.3 3.4 3.9 4.8 10.3 13.6 18.2  
EUREKA 3.2 3.3 4.2 6.5 14.4 17.4 20.5  
:KASKASKIA RIVER  
VANDALIA 9.1 9.6 14.2 19.5 23.6 26.1 26.5  
CARLYLE TW 417.6 417.6 417.6 419.0 422.3 424.0 424.9  
:LA MOINE RIVER  
RIPLEY 6.2 8.0 10.9 15.9 19.7 23.6 26.5  
:MOREAU RIVER  
JEFFERSON CITY 4.8 6.5 9.8 19.4 21.7 26.2 29.1  
:MARIES RIVER  
WESTPHALIA 0.6 1.1 2.2 3.4 8.6 11.9 13.4  
:GASCONADE RIVER  
RICH FOUNTAIN 3.6 3.8 5.0 7.2 12.2 15.4 18.1  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 11/26/2017 - 02/24/2018  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
CANTON LD20 3.5 3.4 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.3  
LAGRANGE 4.4 4.3 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.2  
QUINCY 11.2 11.1 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9  
QUINCY LD21 4.1 4.0 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.7  
HANNIBAL 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.6  
SAVERTON LD22 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.9  
LOUISIANA 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8  
CLARKSVILLE LD24 14.6 14.5 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.3 13.3  
WINFIELD LD25 14.4 14.4 13.9 13.6 13.3 13.2 13.1  
:NORTH FABIUS RIVER  
EWING 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9  
:MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER  
EWING 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8  
:SOUTH FABIUS RIVER  
TAYLOR 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3  
:NORTH RIVER  
PALMYRA 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8  
:MID FORK SALT RIVER  
HOLLIDAY 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1  
:SALT RIVER  
NEW LONDON 4.6 4.4 3.8 2.7 2.1 2.1 2.1  
:CUIVRE RIVER  
TROY 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1  
OLD MONROE 10.3 10.0 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.3  
:DARDENNE CREEK  
ST. PETERS 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0  
:BOURBEUSE RIVER  
UNION 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1  
:BIG RIVER  
BYRNESVILLE 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9  
:MERAMEC RIVER  
STEELVILLE 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9  
SULLIVAN 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8  
EUREKA 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8  
:KASKASKIA RIVER  
VANDALIA 8.4 7.4 5.9 3.1 2.3 1.9 1.8  
CARLYLE TW 411.2 411.2 411.2 411.2 411.2 411.2 411.2  
:LA MOINE RIVER  
RIPLEY 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0  
:MOREAU RIVER  
JEFFERSON CITY 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5  
:MARIES RIVER  
WESTPHALIA 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
:GASCONADE RIVER  
RICH FOUNTAIN 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/LSX FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 
FUCHS  

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MO Page
The Nexlab IL Page Main Text Page