159
FGUS73 KSGF 251740
ESFSGF
MOC097-105-119-145-161-169-KSC021-260840-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1240 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS
ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS).
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND THE END
OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN
THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID SEPTEMBER 25, 2009 -
LOCATION FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
ELK RIVER
TIFF CITY 15.0 5.7 6.5 7.5 8.4 10.4 14.3 17.5 20.9 23.3
SPRING RIVER
CARTHAGE 10.0 4.3 4.8 5.2 6.2 8.0 10.1 12.1 14.4 15.2
WACO 19.0 6.3 7.2 8.8 10.1 12.3 17.8 22.8 24.4 28.7
BAXTER SPRGS 14.0 6.3 7.2 7.3 7.9 10.1 14.0 21.3 23.2 29.9
SHOAL CREEK
JOPLIN 14.0 4.0 4.1 4.6 5.7 6.9 8.7 10.9 14.2 15.7
BIG PINEY
FT LEONARD WD 13.0 10.5 11.6 12.1 12.8 14.4 14.9 15.5 17.4 18.4
GASCONADE RIVER
HAZELGREEN 21.0 2.7 4.4 5.5 7.3 10.7 11.6 15.0 19.0 24.4
JEROME 15.0 3.4 4.8 6.1 7.7 10.1 11.8 13.7 18.4 22.2
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=SGF FOR
MORE WEATHER AND RIVER INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC
RIVER OUTLOOKS.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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