217  
FNUS73 KLSX 100507  
FWSLSX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR OATES FIRE...MTNF  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO  
1207 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 2300 CDT ON MAY 09.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE,  
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, BUT LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AGAIN ON  
THURSDAY. THIS MOVEMENT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
ON THURSDAY, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES  
CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.  
   
REST OF TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
TEMPERATURE.........70 AT FORECAST START...MIN 62.  
RH..................63 PERCENT AT FORECAST START...MAX 84 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 2 MPH AT FORECAST  
START...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WINDS NORTHWEST AT 1 MPH USING THE WIND FACTOR  
ADJUSTMENT OF 0.4.  
HAINES INDEX........N/A.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....N/A.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....N/A.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 85.  
RH..................MIN 43 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 6 MPH DURING MID  
AND LATE MORNING, THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO  
7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 2 TO 3 MPH DURING MID  
AND LATE MORNING, THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 2 TO  
3 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON USING THE WIND FACTOR  
ADJUSTMENT OF 0.4.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 14 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (9760 M/S-M) AT MAX HEATING.  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 62.  
RH..................MAX 75 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS AROUND 2 MPH USING THE WIND  
FACTOR ADJUSTMENT OF 0.4.  
HAINES INDEX........N/A.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....N/A.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....N/A.  
 

 
 
FORECASTER...GKS  
REQUESTED BY...ERIC WIERSMA  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1809567.0/LSX  
.DELDT 05/09/18  
 
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