319  
FNUS73 KLSX 160016  
FWSLSX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR ROCK CREEK...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO  
616 PM CST THU FEB 15 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1900 CST ON FEBRUARY 15.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
RAIN NORTH OF THE FIRE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THIS EVENING,  
LIKELY MOVING INTO THE AREA OF THE FIRE BETWEEN 800 PM AND  
900 PM. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE 2-3 HOURS  
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 900 PM AND MIDNIGHT.  
SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DIMINISH  
OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS, AND THEN TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BETWEEN  
800 PM AND 900 PM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OF  
THE FIRE BETWEEN 1100 PM AND MIDNIGHT SHIFTING THE WIND FURTHER  
TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.  
   
REST OF TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1-8 STRIKES UNTIL 2400, THEN NO TSTMS.  
TEMPERATURE.........70 AT REQUEST...MIN 34.  
RH..................55 PERCENT AT REQUEST...MAX 78 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AT REQUEST...  
OTHERWISE WIND TURNING TO THE NORTH AT 8 TO 13 MPH.  
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS  
IN THE EVENING.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5 MPH TURNING TO THE NORTH AT  
AROUND 6 MPH BETWEEN 1100 PM AND MIDNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........N/A.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....N/A.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....N/A.  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY  
SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING SUNNY  
(20-30 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 42.  
RH..................MIN 37 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 8 TO 11 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 22 MPH  
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTH WIND AROUND 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 10 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 21 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (8080 M/S-M) AT MAX HEATING.  
   
FRIDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 29.  
RH..................MAX 83 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND.  
HAINES INDEX........N/A.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....N/A.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....N/A.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). SNOW LIKELY UNTIL  
LATE MORNING. RAIN LIKELY LATE IN THE MORNING,  
THEN CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 47.  
RH..................MIN 51 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 17 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4890 M/S-M) AT MAX HEATING.  
 

 
FORECASTER...CARNEY  
REQUESTED BY...CHARLENE NAZARENKO  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1802040.0/LSX  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MO Page
The Nexlab IL Page Main Text Page