217
FNUS73 KPAH 091744
FWSPAH
SPOT FORECAST FOR BUFFALO TRAIL...LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1144 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1155 CST ON NOVEMBER 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION...FAVORABLE
WEATHER CONDITONS TODAY WILL BE MARGINAL FOR FIRE WEATHER AGENCIES.
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WILL SLOW THE RATE
OF WARMING TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SLOWER DIURNAL
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST TWENTY FOOT
AND TRANSPORT WINDS...WILL HOLD MIXING HEIGHTS WITHIN TWO TO
FOUR HUNDRED FEET OF THE 1700 FOOT MIXING HEIGHT THRESHOLD UNTIL THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...MINIMUM DAYTIME RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL STAY ABOVE 35 TO 45 PERCENT TODAY.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE HEARTLAND
FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY WORKING THROUGH THE REGION
BY MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE MARK TWAIN AND SHAWNEE
NATIONAL FOREST AREAS WILL IMPROVE ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN
KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE HEARTLAND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM AND A CHANCE OF RAIN
MOVES INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........70 AT IGNITION...MAX 73.
RH..................51 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
LIGHT WINDS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 800-1800 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 2 TO 7 MPH.
TIME (CST) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............68 70 71 72 72 70 66
RH..............51 46 44 43 43 47 56
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 2 2 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 5 5 5
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 51.
RH..................MAX 89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 2 MPH OR LESS.
TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TEMP............63 59 57 55 54 53
RH..............62 69 69 73 79 83
20 FT WIND......E 2 E 2 E 2 NE 1 NE 2 NE 2
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5
HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 4 4 5
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 69.
RH..................MIN 44 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN
THE MORNING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 0 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO 9 TO 16 MPH
IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 2 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (CST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............52 59 66 67
RH..............82 72 53 50
20 FT WIND......NE 3G5 NE 5 NE 5G10 NE 6G10
HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 4
FORECASTER...PACKETT
REQUESTED BY...REGINA ROBY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20091109.BUFFA.01/PAH
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