006  
FXUS63 KDVN 211106  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
606 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2018  
   
..AVIATION UPDATE
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2018  
 
HIGH OVERCAST IS FOUND OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS, AS THE UPPER LEVEL  
LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR COLORADO. THIS UPPER LOW IS MOVING VERY  
SLOW, IF AT ALL EARLY TODAY. THE HIGH CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP  
OUR AREA IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2018  
 
TODAY'S WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER, BUT  
OTHERWISE WILL BE VERY TRANQUIL AND MILD. FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH  
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WILL HAVE OUR FORECAST STAYING VERY CLOSE TO THE  
GUIDANCE BLEND TODAY, RATHER THAN GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE. WE WILL GET  
A MILDER START TODAY, SO THERE'S NO STRONG REASON TO UNDERCUT  
GUIDANCE HIGHS, WHICH ARE MID 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH. THE HIGH  
PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL BRING LIGHT EAST WINDS OVER THE NORTH  
HALF, AND IN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER GRADIENT IN THE SOUTH, 10 TO 15 MPH  
WINDS THERE. IN ANY CASE, THIS IS BY FAR THE MOST PLEASANT SATURDAY  
WE'VE HAD IN MANY WEEKS. TONIGHT, WITH THE SLOW MOVING WEATHER  
PATTERN, EXPECT A NIGHT NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE ONE OUTSIDE NOW.  
LOWS IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S SOUTH WILL BE SEEN UNDER  
HIGH CLOUDS.  
ERVIN  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2018  
 
CUT OFF H5 LOW WILL LUMBER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH THE  
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PSEUDO HIGH OVER LOW  
BLOCKING PATTERN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE  
AREA WITH QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE HOW WARM  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE LOW,  
ESPECIALLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A COUPLE OF  
DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.  
 
INTO NEXT WEEK, A CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH IN THE CENTRAL  
CONUS. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE H5 FLOW AND OVERALL MOMENTUM  
FIELDS. HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF THE FORCING.  
AS A RESULT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE GFS  
BRINGS A SURFACE LOW AND PRECIP TO THE AREA. WHEREAS AS ECMWF AND  
GEM DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIP. AS A RESULT, THE BLEND HAS SCHC TO  
CHANCE POPS. WITH THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS,  
DECIDED TO LEAVE THE POPS IN. THAT SAID, THIS WILL BE AN AREA THAT  
LATER FORECASTS CAN LOOK AT IMPROVING. OVERALL, SPRING WILL REMAIN  
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2018  
 
LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH VFR  
CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH OVERCAST CLOUDS. VISIBILITY WILL BE  
UNLIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN  
SHORT TERM...ERVIN  
LONG TERM...GIBBS  
AVIATION...ERVIN  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab IL Page
The Nexlab IA Page
The Nexlab MO Page Main Text Page