818  
FXUS63 KDVN 211743  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
1143 AM CST TUE NOV 21 2017  
   
..AVIATION UPDATE
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 733 AM CST TUE NOV 21 2017  
 
UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR DEVELOPING BAND OF LIGHT  
RAIN/SPRINKLES THAT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA  
DURING THE MORNING. ALSO INCREASED WIND GUSTS FOR A COUPLE HOURS  
THIS MORNING NORTHWEST AS THE INITIAL WIND SURGE ARRIVES.  
EXPECTING SOME BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH, BUT WITH THE LIMITED  
COVERAGE AND DURATION, A WIND ADVISORY IS NOT WARRANTED AND HAVE  
COVERED WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.  
 

 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE NOV 21 2017  
 
PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS. A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE HELD TEMPERATURES UP IN THE UPPER  
30S TO UPPER 40S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE NOV 21 2017  
 
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE A  
FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND STEADY TO FALLING  
TEMPERATURES.  
 
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING,  
ACCOMPANIED BY A 3-4MB PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE. STRONGEST WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED FROM 9 AM INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE NORTHWEST  
COUNTIES FAVORED FOR THE HIGHEST GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. BUFR  
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST COULD FLIRT  
WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO, BUT FOR THE MOST PART,  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY A BIT BELOW CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 30 MPH  
OR GUSTS OF 45 MPH). EXPECT MORNING HIGHS WITH TEMPS FALLING OFF  
SLOWLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TONIGHT, THE SKY WILL CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A DECREASING  
WIND. LOWS WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE NOV 21 2017  
 
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE  
QUIET ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL WEATHER FOR TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION  
LOOKS TO BE QUIET. TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE THIS WEEK AS COOLER  
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND AS A SHRTWV TROF  
ADVECTS THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY.  
 
MODEL INCONSISTENCY EXISTS BETWEEN THE TIMING AND THE STRENGTH OF  
THE H5 WAVE FOR FRIDAY. THE TIMING OF FROPA AND POSSIBLE PRECIP  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS STILL UNCERTAIN. WHAT IS CERTAIN IS  
THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S LOOK LIKELY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE  
FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST TUE NOV 21 2017  
 
VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AS  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS  
THIS AFTERNOON THEN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. WINDS BACKING  
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  
 

 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...RP KINNEY  
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY  
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY  
LONG TERM...GIBBS  
AVIATION...HAASE  
 
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