768  
FXUS63 KPAH 251944  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
244 PM CDT WED APR 25 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED APR 25 2018  
 
SOUTHERN BRANCH MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK  
SOUTHEAST FROM KS INTO AR/NRN MS AND AL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS  
OR SO. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND LIGHT RAINS, THOUGH MUCH  
LIGHTER THAN THE LAST ONES, TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION  
TONIGHT. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CLOSER/JUST NORTH OF THE  
UPPER LOW AND MID LVL FORCING/DIFLUENCE REGION, WHICH WILL REMAIN  
SOUTH OF US. STILL COULD SEE SOME ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH  
RAIN TOTALS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SE MO AND WRN KY...CLOSER TO  
THE AR/TN BORDERS. MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE EXITING  
OUR S/SERN COUNTIES THU MORNING, BUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP MIGHT  
LINGER AROUND THE SRN PENNYRILE OF WESTERN KY INTO THU AFTERNOON.  
 
AFTER A WEAK (AND MOST LIKELY DRY) FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT,  
LOOKING HIGH AND DRY AS WE HEADING THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT MUCH IN THE  
WAY OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT, HOWEVER, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. THEREFORE, AS LONG AS WE CAN RETURN TO  
SOME SUNSHINE, MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD JUMP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S  
TO LOWER 70S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED APR 25 2018  
 
DRY WEATHER AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK, COURTESY OF A REVERSAL OF THE EASTERN  
TROUGH/WESTERN RIDGE PATTERN. ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS  
CONTINUE TO DISPLACE THE EASTERN N. AMERICA TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A  
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
OVER THE WEEKEND, A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THERE ARE EVEN  
SOME INDICATIONS THAT A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PRECEDE THIS  
HIGH ON SATURDAY. THIS HIGH WILL TEMPER THE WARMUP A BIT THIS  
WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND THE LOWER  
70S ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE CHILLY  
TEMPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. SOME  
UPPER 30S STILL SEEM PLAUSIBLE SAT NIGHT GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND  
THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH NEARLY OVERHEAD.  
 
EARLY NEXT WEEK, DEEP-LAYER RIDGING FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB WILL  
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS BLOCKING  
HIGH WILL PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR INTO OUR REGION ON  
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOUCH 80 IN  
MANY AREAS BY TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED APR 25 2018  
 
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS BLO 10 KTS EXPECTED  
THROUGH 00Z. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TOWARD 3K FT OVER SE MO/WRN KY AS  
WE HEAD PAST 00Z WED AND LIGHT RAINS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...GM  
LONG TERM...SMITH  
AVIATION...GM  
 
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