548  
FXUS63 KPAH 251139 AAA  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
639 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
 
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
 
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO SO-SO MODEL AGREEMENT  
WITH TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA.  
 
A SLOW MOVING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO  
SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS APPROACHES THE REGION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM12, THE  
GFS/HRRR/RAP13 ARE SHOWING A DRY SLOT BEING PULLED INTO THE WESTERN  
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA BY LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT, POPS SHOULD SLOWLY  
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT GO AWAY COMPLETELY  
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE/UPPER LOWS COMBINED WITH WRAP-  
AROUND MOISTURE PINCHING OFF THE DRY SLOT.  
 
AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MEANDERS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST, POPS WILL  
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTER A BRIEF  
RESPITE SUNDAY EVENING, PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO MAKE THEIR  
WAY BACK INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS  
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS  
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH  
THE PERIOD.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
 
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES  
TUESDAY MORNING, BUT A BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER  
THE PAH FORECAST AREA.  
 
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY, MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING/TRACK  
OF OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GFS TAKES THE SURFACE LOW INTO  
EASTERN ARKANSAS BY 12Z THURSDAY, WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS IT OVER  
OKLAHOMA AT THAT TIME, AND THE CANADIAN HAS IT OVER NEBRASKA.  
DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES, ALL 3 TRY TO GENERATE A LITTLE  
PRECIPITATION IN OUR REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, AND WENT WITH  
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. THE FASTER GFS SPREADS MORE  
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE PAH FORECAST AREA  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE US COVERED BY 18Z  
THURSDAY. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUT FAR WEST COUNTIES WEDNESDAY  
EVENING, WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS SPREADING ACROSS OUR ENTIRE  
REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER IN  
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND ACROSS ALL OF OUR  
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY, BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE ACTUAL TRACK  
OF THE LOW. CONTINUED WITH SHOWER CHANCES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH  
GRADUALLY DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT  
INTO FRIDAY, BUT AGAIN, HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS MOVE OUT WILL BE  
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THROUGH THE EXTENDED, WITH  
READINGS FROM AROUND 5 DEGREES TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL  
NORMALS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
 
VFR CIGS/VSBYS, SHOWERS, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE  
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR  
CIGS/VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITH TSRA. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20  
TO 25 KNOTS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP  
LONG TERM...RST  
 
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