866
FXUS63 KPAH 261127
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
627 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
- THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAINS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
- SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 MPH SATURDAY, AND 30-40 MPH
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2024
A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIFTING THROUGH THE QUAD STATE THIS MORNING, WHICH
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM ADVECTION/WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THE GREATEST
CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
MISSOURI TODAY BEFORE REACHING THE QUAD STATE AREA VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOST LIKELY TONIGHT. AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED AS THE LINE APPROACHES QUAD STATE AREA TONIGHT. INSTABILITY
IS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS THE QUAD STATE, EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PORTION OF
SEMO. STILL NOT THAT GREAT THOUGH, MODELS PAINTING OUT A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG FOR THE OZARK COUNTIES. THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA
(PORTIONS OF SEMO/SOUTHERN IL) ARE STILL IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH GENERAL THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. THE
MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND BEFORE THE STORMS DIMINISH EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AGAIN, NOT A GREAT POSSIBILITY OF STORMS
REMAINING STRONG/SEVERE AS THEY PUSH INTO OUR CWA FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT.
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY, THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WESTWARD TRACK IS
STILL FAVORED WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. AS THE LOW SHIFTS, A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE QUAD STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AS A LINE OF
STORMS TRAVERSE THE AREA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO
LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT; HOWEVER,
INSTABILITY DOESN'T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME (300-500J/KG
MAINLY OVER SEMO). WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE ARE OUTLOOKED
FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AGAIN,
CURRENT THINKING IS A DAMAGING WIND RISK, BUT SIMILAR TO THE FIRST
SYSTEM A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE LINE OF STORMS APPROACH
THE QUAD STATE. IN ADDITION, HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES, WHICH IS AROUND 200% OF NORMAL. THE
LINE SHOULD BE MOVING ALONG, SO OVERALL FLOODING THREAT MAY BE
MITIGATED. EVEN SO, AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA!
MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES TO SOME EXTENT FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY DROP INTO THE AREA DURING THAT TIME PERIOD, KEEPING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN STORMS IN PLACE. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOPPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE RUNS,
INTRODUCING FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT, WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2024
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BRUSH THROUGH THE TAF SITES EARLY IN THIS
ISSUANCE; HOWEVER, A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE BACK INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LLWS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP JUST OFF THE
SURFACE.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
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