820  
FXUS63 KPAH 180523  
AFDPAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
1123 PM CST SAT FEB 17 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST SAT FEB 17 2018  
 
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT FEB 17 2018  
 
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF IMPACT WEATHER TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM.  
WITH THE EXIT OF TODAY'S SYSTEM, SKIES WILL TRY TO CLEAR OUT  
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST  
INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MODELS ARE ONCE  
AGAIN TRYING TO CLEAR SKIES TOO QUICKLY THOUGH BASED ON LATEST  
SATELLITE TRENDS, SO DELAYED IT A BIT. IF SKIES DO ACTUALLY CLEAR  
AS FORECAST, THERE WOULD BE A WINDOW FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT  
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS GO NEARLY CALM OVER A WET GROUND. HOWEVER,  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY DRY RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE, WHICH  
COULD MITIGATE THE FOG THREAT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR. IF FOG WERE  
TO DEVELOP, WOULD NEED TO KEEP IN MIND THAT SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE  
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS BY MORNING.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS RAPIDLY EAST SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME  
MORE SOUTHERLY. WITH THE HELP OF SUNSHINE, THIS SHOULD HELP  
TEMPS WARM INTO THE 50S. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE  
AT ALL LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS COULD AID IN  
SUPPORTING SCATTERED WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT  
INTO MONDAY. SHOULD NOT MUCH OF AN IMPACT THOUGH. THE BIGGER STORY  
WILL BE THE RISE IN TEMPS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  
DESPITE POSSIBLE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY, TEMPS  
WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO NEAR OR ABOVE 70 AGAIN OVER A GOOD PORTION  
OF THE REGION. IN FACT, SOME RECORD HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION MAY  
FALL OR BE CHALLENGED. LOWS WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH MONDAY  
NIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY SHATTER ALL RECORD HIGH MINIMUM  
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT FEB 17 2018  
 
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST LOOKS MOSTLY WET FOR THE PAH FORECAST  
AREA UNDER A PERSISTENT WESTERN TROF/EASTERN RIDGE LONGWAVE  
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN.  
 
INITIALLY, THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE  
CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO  
HOLD OFF WIDESPREAD PCPN DURING THE DAY TUE. IT SHOULD BE BREEZY  
AND ABNORMALLY WARM AGAIN. IN FACT, AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL LIKELY  
CHALLENGE RECORD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.  
 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN TROF WILL CONTINUE TO  
INDUCE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT, AND BY  
TUE NIGHT, THE FRONT, EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST ALL THE WAY TO  
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, IS PROGGED TO HEAD SOUTHEAST TUE NIGHT,  
RESULTING IN HIGH POPS AND QPF FOR OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH  
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TUE NIGHT. BEHIND THE  
FRONT WILL BE A SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIRMASS, CAUSING A 30-35  
DEGREE DROP IN HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN TUE AND WED.  
 
BY WED, DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALLER DETAILS OF THE MODELS BEGIN TO  
DIFFER, BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTED THAT THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY  
LULL IN THE PCPN WED, WITH SOME KIND OF RESURGENCE POSSIBLE WITH THE  
FRONT ATTEMPTING TO MOVE BACK NORTHWEST AS A WARM FRONT WED NIGHT,  
AS YET ANOTHER BUNDLE OF ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN  
CONUS. STILL, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WED NIGHT  
TO GENERATE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL OR EVEN A WINTRY MIX.  
 
THE WEATHER PICTURE GETS MURKIER TOWARD DAYS 6/7, BUT FRI AND SAT  
LOOK WET AT THIS TIME AS THE GULF SHOULD REMAIN WIDE OPEN FOR A  
MOISTURE SOURCE. WE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TOWARD THIS  
TIME PERIOD, PROVIDING WELL-ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST SAT FEB 17 2018  
 
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND NOW THE FOG IS SETTING IN, AT LEAST AT KCGI  
AND PARTLY AT KPAH. KEVV AND KOWB ARE STILL P6SM BUT WILL LOWER  
THEM THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DENSE FOG TO BE THE MAIN  
PROBLEM OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS CLEAR SKIES AND  
CALM WINDS CONTINUE. EXPECT THE FOG TO LIFT BY 15Z OR SO. WINDS  
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING AND PICK UP  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE  
LATTER 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO CREEP  
BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.  
 

 
   
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ILZ075-076-080>082-  
084>086-088>090-092>094.  
 
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-  
107>112-114.  
 
IN...NONE.  
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR KYZ001>009.  
 

 
 

 
 
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