780  
FNUS74 KMOB 220113  
FWSMOB  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR DE SOTO 7202...USDA FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
813 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 2100 CDT ON APRIL 21.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW IN THE MIXING LAYER IS EXPECTED  
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES IS EXPECTED SUNDAY, WITH  
BEST CHANCE BEGINNING MID MORNING AND LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  
 
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT  
ESPECIALLY IN LOCALITIES WHERE WINDS BECOME LIGHT.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE  
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST  
AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE NIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800-2500 FT AGL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...1494 METERS AGL DECREASING TO 244-762 METERS  
AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTHEAST 3 TO 5 METERS/SECOND.  
DISPERSION INDEX....37 DECREASING TO 4, THEN INCREASING TO 7.  
LVORI...............5 INCREASING TO 8.  
STABILITY CLASS.....4.  
 
TIME (CDT) 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM  
SKY (%).........80 85 88 89 91  
WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 40 40 40  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............65 63 62 62 62  
RH..............87 93 100 100 100  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 3 4 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 6 6 6  
MIX HGT (FT)....900 900 800 900 900  
MIX HGT (M).....270 270 240 270 270  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 9 9 9  
TRANS WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE  
TRANS SPD (M/S).4 3 4 4 4  
DISPERSION IDX..4 4 6 7 7  
LVORI...........5 6 7 7 8  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS  
IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.  
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......90 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0700, THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL  
1000, THEN 9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 1300, THEN 16-25  
STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.  
MIN HUMIDITY........76 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2100 FT AGL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...244-640 METERS AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 22 MPH  
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTH 4 TO 8 METERS/SECOND INCREASING TO 9 TO  
10 METERS/SECOND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
DISPERSION INDEX....6 INCREASING TO 51.  
LVORI...............8 DECREASING TO 3.  
STABILITY CLASS.....3.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........92 92 94 96 94 87  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY  
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 80 80 80 90 90  
LAL.............1 2 3 3 4 4  
TEMP............62 64 67 71 73 73  
RH..............100 97 90 81 76 79  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 8 10 10 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.7 10 11 14 14 10  
MIX HGT (FT)....800 1000 1400 1900 2100 2100  
MIX HGT (M).....240 300 430 580 640 640  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 10 14 17 21 22  
TRANS WIND DIR..SE SE S S S S  
TRANS SPD (M/S).4 4 6 8 9 10  
DISPERSION IDX..6 15 24 37 47 50  
LVORI...........8 5 4 3 3 3  
   
SUNDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS  
WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENING,  
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN  
THE EVENING. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE  
EVENING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......90 PERCENT.  
LAL.................16-25 STRIKES UNTIL 1900, THEN 1-8 STRIKES  
UNTIL 2200, THEN NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2100 FT AGL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...213-640 METERS AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 16 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.WEST 4 TO 7 METERS/SECOND.  
DISPERSION INDEX....36 DECREASING TO 3.  
LVORI...............3 INCREASING TO 8.  
STABILITY CLASS.....3.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........80 67 60 52 51 53  
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........LIKELY S CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).90 30 30 30 10 10  
LAL.............4 2 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............72 70 67 63 61 59  
RH..............81 84 90 97 97 93  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S SW W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 4 2 2 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.8  
MIX HGT (FT)....2100 700 700 1100 1300 1300  
MIX HGT (M).....640 210 210 340 400 400  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S SW SW W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.16 10 8 9 10 8  
TRANS WIND DIR..S SW SW W W W  
TRANS SPD (M/S).7 4 4 4 4 4  
DISPERSION IDX..36 9 7 5 4 4  
LVORI...........3 5 6 7 7 7  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.  
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING LIGHT  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200-4700 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...305-823 METERS AGL INCREASING TO 975-1433  
METERS AGL LATE IN THE MORNING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 12 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.WEST 4 TO 5 METERS/SECOND.  
DISPERSION INDEX....2 INCREASING TO 52.  
LVORI...............9 DECREASING TO 1.  
STABILITY CLASS.....2.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM  
SKY (%).........55 52 50  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 0 10  
LAL.............1 1 1  
TEMP............56 64 73  
RH..............100 78 59  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.4 6  
MIX HGT (FT)....1100 2700 4300  
MIX HGT (M).....340 820 1310  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 12 12  
TRANS WIND DIR..W W W  
TRANS SPD (M/S).4 5 5  
DISPERSION IDX..3 36 50  
LVORI...........9 3 1  
 

 
FORECASTER...16  
REQUESTED BY...CLIFF WILLIS  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1806562.3/MOB  
.DELDT 04/21/18  
.EMAIL JAYBOYKIN@FS.FED.US  
 
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