707  
FXUS64 KLIX 300906  
AFDLIX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
406 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
STRONGLY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE AREA  
THIS MORNING. LARGE HAIL ALSO BEING PRODUCED IN SOME OF THIS  
ACTIVITY WITHIN COOLER LAPSE RATES WEST OF THE AREA. THINKING  
REMAINS THE SAME WITH RESPECT TO IMPACTS AND SEVERITY TODAY. WIND  
SPEEDS WILL BE ONE OF THE MOST NOTEABLE THINGS TODAY.  
 
THE COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE PREFRONTAL  
AREA OF SH/TS TO THE WEST. THE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL  
WAIT ON THE FRONT TO BEGIN TRANSITING OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THIS  
STILL PUTS THE LINE OF SH/TS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF  
THE AREA JUST BEFORE DAYLIGHT. JUST LIKE THE DISTURBANCE THAT IS  
CAUSING THE EXPLOSION OF ACTIVITY THIS MORNING, THERE LOOKS TO BE  
ANOTHER SIMILAR DISTURBANCE THAT WILL DO THE SAME LATER THIS  
EVENING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST LA.  
 
SEVERE WEATHER VARIABLES REMAIN HIGH TODAY. THE 4C INVERSION  
YESTERDAY WEAKENED QUITE A BIT AT THE 12Z SOUNDING SATURDAY WHICH  
WOULD HAVE BEEN AN ISSUE. BUT THERE WERE TWO DYNAMICALLY ENHANCED  
INVERSIONS AT 1500FT AND ANOTHER AT 4KFT. THESE TWO ALONG WITH THE  
SUBSIDENT DRY AIR CAUSING THEM TO FORM, WERE THE MAIN VARIABLES  
KEEPING SH/TS FROM DEVELOPING. BY YESTERDAY EVENING THE SOUNDING  
SHOWED ONLY ONE WEAK INVERSION OF ABOUT 1C HANGING ON AT 4KFT.  
BUT ABOVE THAT, IT WAS NOT COOLING AT AN AVERAGE LAPSE  
RATE(REGRESSIVE NORM) FOR THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WOULD HAVE BEEN A  
WEAK INHIBITOR AS WELL BUT IT WOULDN'T HAVE KEPT ANYTHING DOWN IF  
CAPABLE OF GETTING STARTED BUT CUMULATIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL  
INVERSION, IT DID HELP. TODAY WE WILL SEE SOMEWHAT OF A DIFFERENT  
STORY AS THE LIFT ALONG THE FRONT CAUSES THE INVERSION TO LIFT  
MORE AND BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.  
 
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT CAN PRODUCE 20-30MPH WINDS BY  
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SFC COUPLED WITH THE ALREADY GRADIENT  
WIND SPEEDS OF 25MPH COULD EASILY PRODUCE 50+MPH WIND SPEEDS ALONG  
THE BOUNDARY TODAY. THIS COULD CAUSE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND  
THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY STRONG OR SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. OTHER SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE  
DISCOUNTED BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS PREVALENT. AN ABUNDANCE OF LIGHTNING  
WILL BE PRODUCED VERY EASILY BY THESE STORMS THROUGH THIS  
EVENING.  
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES TOTAL  
THROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST OF THIS IS EXPECTED WITH THE  
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH WHICH WOULD CAUSE THIS TO FALL WITHIN  
A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR  
DRAINAGE AREAS COULD BE A PROBLEM TODAY AS WELL.  
 
COASTAL FLOODING IS THE NEXT BIGGEST ITEM ON THE LIST. AREAS THAT  
NORMALLY RECEIVE SALT WATER INUNDATION DURING TIMES OF ABNORMAL  
HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL RECEIVE WATER AGAIN TODAY. TIDE LEVELS ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2FT ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. HIGHEST LEVELS WILL  
BE DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WHICH WILL BE FROM LATE MORNING  
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. SOME OF THE LOWEST BEACH  
AND SECONDARY PAVED ROUTES MAY OBSERVE UP TO A FOOT OF SALT WATER  
OVER THOSE SURFACES TODAY.  
 
LONG TERM...  
ANOTHER ROUND OF SH/TS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY  
MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE  
AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COULD PROVE TO BE A WETTER EVENT WITH  
ITS OWN ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WE WILL  
KEEP THE MAIN FOCUS ON ONE SCENARIO AT A TIME FOR THE MOMENT AND  
WORK THIS EVENT AS IT UNFOLDS AND THEN SWING THAT FOCUS TO MID-  
WEEK.  
   
LONG TERM
 
 
NORTHWEST WINSD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID-WEEK FRONT WILL CAUSE  
ALL ADVISORIES, WATCHES AND WARNINGS TO LOWER. THIS WILL DELIVER  
SOME MUCH NEEDED NICE WEATHER BEFORE A LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER THE  
SOUTHWEST MOVES EAST AND BRINGS ON THE HEAT BY THE BEGINNING OF  
THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  
 

 
 
AVIATION...  
WILL INTRODUCE TSRA FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS  
MORNING, INCLUDING KMCB, KBTR AND KHDC. THIS PACKAGE WILL SPREAD  
THE MENTION OF STORMS ACROSS THE REMAINING TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z  
TODAY AND 00Z MONDAY, ALTHOUGH STORMS COULD LINGER BEYOND THAT AT  
KGPT.  
 
WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR HIGHER  
AT ALL TERMINALS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE A PROBLEM FOR EAST-  
WEST ORIENTED RUNWAYS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER THE PASSAGE  
OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.  
 
MARINE...  
A STRONG SPRING COLD FRONT IS CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME VERY STRONG  
TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS WELL OVER GALE FORCE. WILL CONTINUE THE  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS SINCE SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT  
HIGH END ADVISORY. VERY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL  
CONTINUE UNTIL WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WAVES NEAR  
6 FEET IN LARGER LAKES, AND 9 TO 12 FEET IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS  
CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH,  
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS  
WILL REMAIN HIGH POST FRONT AT AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WATERS WILL  
STILL BE ROUGH. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO CALM. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE COAST TOWARDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY  
OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
DECISION SUPPORT...  
 
DSS CODE: BLUE.  
DEPLOYED: NONE.  
ACTIVATION: NONE.  
ACTIVITIES: EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT EMAILS  
MONITORING CONVECTIVE THREATS FOR TODAY.  
 
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND  
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION.  
BLUE = LONG-FUSED WATCH, WARNING, OR ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR  
HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT.  
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT-FUSED WATCH, WARNING OR  
ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT.  
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS; SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL  
EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES.  
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE AND/OR  
DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MCB 77 51 79 54 / 100 30 0 0  
BTR 77 53 80 56 / 100 20 0 0  
ASD 81 57 80 57 / 100 70 0 0  
MSY 81 60 80 62 / 100 70 0 0  
GPT 78 61 78 61 / 100 80 10 0  
PQL 81 59 79 55 / 100 90 10 0  
 

 
   
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-  
046>050-056>072.  
 
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR LAZ040-050-  
058-060>064-066>070-072.  
 
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR GMZ530-532-  
534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.  
 
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-  
080>082.  
 
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR MSZ080>082.  
 
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR GMZ532-534-  
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.  
 

 
 

 
 
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