195
FXUS64 KLIX 071540 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
940 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
UPDATE
AFTER LOOKING AT MARINE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE
UPDATED THE HAZARDS FOR TODAY. HAVE REMOVED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL TONIGHT AND CHANGED THE
ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 60NM TO REFLECT LIGHT
WINDS BUT HAZARDOUS SEA STATE CONDITIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES TO TO
THE MARINE PACKAGE WERE MADE. 32
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 341 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...
SAT 00Z LIX SOUNDING WAS ONE OF THE DRIEST SEEN SINCE LIKELY LAST
WINTER WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.22 INCHES. THERE WAS AN
EXTREMELY DRY LOW LAYER AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRY MID INTO UPPER LAYER. A
SHIFT FROM NERLY TO MORE DUE EAST IN COLUMN WINDS SHOULD HELP
ALLEVIATE THIS SOMEWHAT TODAY. SFC RIDGE TO THE EAST AND UPPER HIGH
OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TODAY. NOT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS AND NO RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND TD/S ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO MID
50S TO LOWER 60S BY THIS EVENING. BASICALLY THE SAME STORY TONIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP LOWS FROM DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S
AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SPEAKING...HAVEN/T MADE MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY JUST SLIGHT SHIFTS IN LOCATION OF HIGHEST POPS
AND AN INCREASE TO THE DEFINITE CATEGORY FOR MONDAY AS CONFIDENCE
HAS BEEN INCREASING. UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSE FOR
UPCOMING UNSETTLED WEATHER IS CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD. IT IS PROGGED TO STAY ON THIS TRAJECTORY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL US AND SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE
CWA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL BE
SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE LA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SAME TIME...IT APPEARS THAT IDA WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR COAST AS
WELL AND SHOULD BE IN A TRANSITIONING STAGE INTO AN EXTRA TROPICAL
FEATURE AS THE TWO LOWS MERGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON TAP AS THE SOUTHERN OPEN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS REACHING 2 INCHES BY MONDAY
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD START RAMPING UP IN THE SWRN PARISHES
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PEAK MONDAY. ON MONDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT TO A
MORE GRADIENT POP ARRANGEMENT FROM EAST TO WEST WITH HIGHER IN
COASTAL MISS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD. RAIN WILL BE TAPERING
OFF SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY BUT COULD STILL HAVE SOME RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE. WED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE
DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN.
MEFFER
AVIATION...
SOME RIVER FOG APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE RED AND
MISSISSIPPI RIVERS WHERE NEARBY ASOS OBSERVATIONS ARE DETECTING
INTERMITTENT IFR FG AND CIGS SCT V BKN 001. THESE AFFECTS SHOULD BE
LOCALIZED AND HAVE AMENDED TO REFLECT THIS AT KBTR. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z THEN PATCHY MVFR TO IFR
VSBY IN BR/FG DUE TO RIVER FOG ONCE AGAIN AFTER 08Z THRU ABOUT 14Z
SUNDAY.
MARINE...
EASTERLY GRADIENT IS ESTABLISHED AT MODERATE WIND LEVELS INITIALLY
BUT ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM IDA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL
GULF AND WILL REALLY SHARPEN THE GRADIENT FOR A PERIOD OF GALE
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY FARTHER FROM SHORE. WILL POST A GALE WATCH
ON THIS PACKAGE FOR THE BEYOND 20NM WATERS WITH CONDITIONS
COMMENCING AROUND 06Z MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z MONDAY DUE
TO IDA'S CLOSEST APPROACH...SOME 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KMSY AND
ABOUT 140 NM SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER. PER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING COASTAL OFFICES AND NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...WILL NOT
MENTION ANY TROPICAL RELATED PROBABILISTIC STATEMENTS AS CONSENSUS
AGREEMENT THAT AFFECTS SHOULD BE MOST ATTRIBUTABLE TO GRADIENT WIND
COMPONENTS AND NOT THE CIRCULATION OF IDA. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT ONCE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO SCA CONDITIONS MAY LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE
IMPROVEMENTS ARE NOTED.
REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH
THAT COASTAL FLOODING OF A MODERATE MAGNITUDE WILL RESULT WITH SOME
MINOR INUNDATION POSSIBLE TODAY...INCREASING IN HEIGHT WITH EACH
SUBSEQUENT TIDE CYCLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE MAINTAINED STATUS QUO AT THIS TIME. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY STILL BE WARRANTED AT A LATER TIME BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME
ONSET OF RUNUP AT SOME OF THE TIDAL GAGES BEFORE ISSUANCE.
CURRENTLY...MOST GAGES ARE SHOWING 0.5 TO 0.8 FOOT ANOMALIES ABOVE
PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE TRACES. AS EASTERLY WINDS
INCREASE...TIDAL RUNUP SHOULD BECOME MORE EVIDENCED LATER TODAY OR
BY TONIGHT. 24/RR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 77 50 75 58 / 0 0 10 30
BTR 78 55 76 61 / 0 0 10 50
MSY 79 60 76 65 / 0 10 10 50
GPT 76 53 75 61 / 0 0 10 30
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER JEFFERSON...AND
UPPER ST. BERNARD.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
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