950
FXUS64 KLIX 091146
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
646 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CURRENTLY, THE REGION IS DIVIDED
BETWEEN MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHWEST AND BETTER MOISTURE
QUALITY TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS FOR TODAY, THINK THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WOULD BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST LA AND THE MS GULF COAST
AGAIN WHERE THIS BETTER MOISTURE MANIFESTS AND IN SOMEWHAT RATHER
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SOME SUBTLE SURFACE/LOW LEVEL LIFT. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE GULF AGAIN ENHANCING THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL
GOING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. KEPT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE DENSE CLOUDINESS AND RAINFALL AROUND.
SIMILAR TO DAYS PAST THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I10/12, BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH ARE GOING
TO REMAIN DRY. COVERAGE IS JUST A BIT MORE IN QUESTION THE
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST YOU GO INTO OUR CWFA. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
THE MAIN STORY GOING INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE
CONTINUATION OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING.
OVERALL, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD START TO DECREASE IN TIME AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS AND SURFACE TROUGH BEGIN TO PUSH DOWNSTREAM
AND ARE REPLACED BY A STRONGER RIDGE. AS RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO
DECREASE EACH DAY TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S RESPECTIVELY. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE DAY
7 AND 8 WHERE AN H5 594DAM RIDGE MOVES WEST. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
PRIMARILY VFR THIS MORNING, BUT THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
MOVING PRIMARILY WESTWARD SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10, WHICH MAKES THE
MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED KMSY, KNEW AND KHUM.
INSTANTANEOUS AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AT WORST, AND
USED PROB30 AT THE ABOVE MENTIONED TERMINALS, AS WELL AS KASD AND
KGPT. MOST SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR BEFORE SUNSET. EXPECT AREAL
COVERAGE TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER ON SUNDAY, LIKELY IMPACTING
ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS. WATERSPOUTS ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. (FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 91 72 90 73 / 10 10 60 20
BTR 93 74 92 75 / 20 20 70 20
ASD 90 73 89 73 / 40 30 80 30
MSY 92 79 92 79 / 50 40 80 20
GPT 90 75 89 75 / 50 40 70 30
PQL 90 74 89 74 / 50 40 70 30
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RDF
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