019
FXUS64 KLIX 042051
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
351 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
SHORT TERM
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BETTER THAN FRIDAY BUT STILL LESS THAN NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DISSIPATED BY
SUNSET TO ALLOW RAIN FREE FIREWORKS DISPLAYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ALONG A CONVERGENCE REGION
OVER JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. THE REMAINDER OF THE COVERAGE
SEEMS TO BE DRIVEN BY LAKE BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. HUMIDITY LEVELS TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN MUGGY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE 20
PERCENT POPS FOR SUNDAY. WEAK FRONTAL ZONE DROPS INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE A STRONGER SYNOPTIC FOCUS FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT. CONTINUITY WITH ONGOING FORECAST MAINTAINED
WITH 60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHS ONLY AROUND 90. 24/RR
LONG TERM
RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE MAY POSE ISSUES FOR TIMING AND LOCATION OF
BEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. AT THIS TIME WILL
MAINTAIN CLIMATOLOGICAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON COVERAGE EACH DAY AND
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CLIMO AS WELL. 24/RR
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED WITH AREA OF HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
RELATIVELY ISOLATED...SO NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD ANY TEMPO
GROUPS. GPT LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL AND HAVE ADDED VCTS FOR
CLOSE PROXIMITY. IF ANY STORMS DO REACH A TERMINAL...IMPACTS SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AT LESS THAN AN HOUR BUT COULD RESULT IN A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SW TO W WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
GUSTY BUT BELOW 20 KTS. WINDS WILL RELAX SOME OVERNIGHT BUT NOT GO
COMPLETELY CALM. INCREASING WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS.
MEFFER
MARINE
THUNDERSTORMS ORIGINALLY DEVELOPED ALONG STALLED FRONT THIS MORNING
BUT HAVE NOW TRANSITIONED MORE TO DEVELOPING ON THE MANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. NOT MANY CHANGES
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE TOMORROW AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
SEAS WILL RESPOND WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE. AT THE SAME TIME...RAIN
CHANCES WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE TOMORROW AND CONTINUE RAMPING UP THRU
MONDAY. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST MID WEEK.
MEFFER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 77 94 75 90 / 10 20 30 60
BTR 78 94 77 90 / 0 20 30 60
MSY 79 92 78 90 / 10 20 30 60
GPT 79 91 78 89 / 10 20 30 60
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>040-046>050-
056>070.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-
080>082.
GM...NONE.
24/RR
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