384  
FXUS64 KMEG 190810  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
310 AM CDT THU OCT 19 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A 1027 MB RIDGE  
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS. A COLD  
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BACK THROUGH PORTIONS OF  
KANSAS. MEANWHILE, THE MID-SOUTH IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SURFACE  
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVALENT EARLY  
THIS MORNING. AS OF 3 AM CDT, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH  
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES  
OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI.  
 
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED  
RAIN FREE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON  
AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE  
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.  
 
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST BY FRIDAY  
NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNING TO THE REGION. SHORT  
TERM MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND OR  
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE  
REGION. LONG TERM MODELS ARE INITIALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT AS THE  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES BUT DIVERGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW  
DEVELOPS AT THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS  
BEEN TRENDING A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND HAVE  
BLENDED RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS UNTIL MODELS COME INTO  
BETTER AGREEMENT.  
 
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS, ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT  
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY NEXT TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR  
FILTERING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS MAY POTENTIALLY  
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND PERHAPS SOME  
30S ESPECIALLY FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 
CJC  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z TAF CYCLE  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.  
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT AROUND 5 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF  
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
ARS  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TN Page
The Nexlab MS Page
The Nexlab AR Page Main Text Page