243
FXUS64 KMEG 050019
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
719 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
UPDATE
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 401 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR COLUMBIA MISSOURI WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHING
SOUTHWEST BACK INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES THUS FAR
HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AS OF
3 PM CDT. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AS OF FORECAST ISSUANCE. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST
PACKAGE.
NAM/GFS SHORT TERM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DESPITE SOMEWHAT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARKANSAS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING A BIT AS THEY MOVE EAST TOWARDS WEAKER MID/UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL BUT THINK OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL REMAIN CONDITIONAL AT BEST. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
SOME LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
LATEST 12Z MODELS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI ON SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY MAY
LIMIT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DEPART THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN FREE WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEXT
SATURDAY WILL BRING BACK WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR BACK TO THE
AREA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
AVIATION
00Z TAFS
BROKEN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. KJBR IS BEGINNING TO SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH KEPT VCSH THROUGH 03Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS. PLACED TEMPOS
FOR BOTH KMEM AND KMKL FROM 02Z TO 04Z ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FOR KMEM AS THE BULK OF TSRA REMAIN NORTH OF THE METRO AREA. MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD REAMAIN AT ALL TAF SITES...EXCEPT KTUP...AFTER
PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE AREA.
CCD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MEM 73 86 67 88 / 70 60 30 10
MKL 71 83 65 86 / 70 50 20 10
JBR 70 83 65 88 / 60 40 20 10
TUP 72 86 68 88 / 70 70 30 20
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
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