211  
FXUS64 KMEG 242332  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
632 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 328 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE  
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE  
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. AREAS NEAR A WEAK NW TO SE ORIENTED  
BOUNDARY HAVE SEEN SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN THE FORM OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED  
TO CEASE RIGHT AROUND SUNDOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  
LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 70 DEGREES AREAWIDE TONIGHT, EXCEPT  
FOR AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER, WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY DIP  
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.  
 
SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THE SUNDAY...  
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SLIDE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS  
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE ENTIRE MID-  
SOUTH. A FEW STRONG STORMS AND MAYBE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE  
POSSIBLE AS SBCAPE VALUES APPROACH THE 2500 J/KG MARK EACH DAY.  
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S  
THROUGH SUNDAY.CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE  
TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE  
EXITING WAVE.  
 
LONG TERM...MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...  
ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE GULF COAST THIS WEEKEND AS INVEST 90  
APPEARS TO BE FINALLY ORGANIZING. THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION  
NEAR BELIZE, NOW HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION BY  
THIS SUNDAY. BOTH SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER  
AGREEMENT OF THE PLACEMENT OF A POTENTIAL TROPICAL  
DEPRESSION/STORM NEAR THE GULF COAST ON MEMORIAL DAY. WITH THIS  
SOLUTION, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE  
GULF COAST AND MAYBE AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.  
 
EVEN THOUGH WE ARE STILL FIVE DAYS OUT, MAIN SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE  
BOTH SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH TOWARDS THE VICINITY OF  
THE MID-SOUTH. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH, CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN  
WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES  
DOWN A FEW DEGREES THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE  
MID 80S. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN  
ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.  
ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA, THE  
SYSTEM STILL BEARS WATCHING. PLEASE STAY TUNED.  
 
AC3  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAFS  
 
CURRENT CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE  
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LATE FOR ALL  
SITES. FOR NOW HAVE PLACED VCTS IN EACH TAF BODY...BUT WOULDN'T  
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A MID/LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD OF ACTIVITY ON  
STATION. VFR BROKEN CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LIGHT  
MVFR VSBY FROM FOG AT MKL AND TUP NEAR SUNRISE. LIGHT WINDS.  
 
JAB  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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