813
FXUS64 KMEG 162035
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
335 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2012
DISCUSSION
SUNNY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SATELLITE SHOWED
A BAND OF TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS HAD FORMED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FROM SOUTHERN IN INTO SOUTHERN MO. RADAR AND LIGHTNING DETECTION
INDICATED A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD FORMED OVER
SOUTHEAST MO...MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE MIDSOUTH
THIS EVENING. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS
ABOUT 1200 TO 1500 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS TWO. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF WEST TN. THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RATHER DRY WITH LIMITED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...THUS THINK THE COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. DID BRING THE 20
PERCENT POP THIS EVENING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN THE
EARLIER FORECAST. MENTIONED A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JONESBORO
AR TO NEAR JACKSON TN.
FOR THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY...LITTLE RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH WARM DAYS
AND MILD NIGHT. THE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL CAUSE A NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY WIND FLOW THURSDAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. BY FRIDAY...WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
MODELS DIFFERENCE DEVELOP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD. FOLLOWED THE ECMWF CLOSER WITH THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY EVOLVING INTO A
CLOSED LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY
DECREASING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD.
JCL
AVIATION
18Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AT MKL/TUP.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT/NEARLY CALM TONIGHT
AND VEER NORTH/NORTHEAST AROUND 6 KTS BY THURSDAY MORNING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES/CONFIDENCE REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
CJC
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MEM 63 86 65 89 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 56 84 57 87 / 20 10 10 10
JBR 59 84 60 88 / 20 10 10 10
TUP 58 87 60 88 / 10 10 10 10
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
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