685  
FXUS64 KMEG 170102  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
802 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THE HEAT ADVISORY  
TO EXPIRE AS OF 8 PM THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES  
THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL LIMIT HEAT INDICES SOMEWHAT BUT A FEW AREAS  
MAY STILL FLIRT WITH 105F AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO  
MONITOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS.  
 
OTHERWISE, EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE  
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE  
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MUCAPE REMAINS HIGH AT >3000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE AREA AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 20 KTS ALONG THE KY/TN  
BORDER MAY HELP MAINTAIN THE STORMS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST MO.  
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT THESE STORMS  
COULD BRIEFLY PULSE UP AND PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.  
REGARDLESS, LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS HIGH ON THESE CELLS AND THERE IS  
A POTENTIALLY FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. POPS FOR THIS EVENING WERE  
REARRANGED TO SHOW THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHWEST TN AND  
PORTIONS OF NORTH MS.  
 
JOHNSON  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 246 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
HEAT INDEX VALUES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAVE INCREASED  
ENOUGH TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE WE HAVE SOME CLOUDS  
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING.  
 
THE FORECAST PERIOD IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW.  
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN. AS SUCH AN  
EASING OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS IS  
EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.  
 
ON FRIDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES  
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS  
AGREE WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EAST, THE PUSH OF COOLER AND  
DRIER AIR ON THE ECMWF IS PLACE FARTHER EAST OF OUR REGION WITH MORE  
OF A GLANCING BLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS, THERE IS STILL  
UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS BEYOND DAY 5.  
 
BELLES  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
/00Z TAFS/  
 
VCTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY AT MEM/JBR/TUP. COVERAGE IS  
ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL  
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD  
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PATCHY FOG MAY  
RESULT IN TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT MKL/TUP OVERNIGHT.  
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT S/W WINDS WILL BECOME N  
LATE TUESDAY.  
 
CJC  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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