032
FXUS64 KMEG 210531 AAC
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1131 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
UPDATE
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 930 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
UPDATE...
MINOR EDITS WERE MADE FOR TONIGHT REGARDING SKY COVER...LOWS...AND
WINDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING QUICKLY IN THE SAVANNAH TN
AREA THIS EVENING SO HAVE KNOCKED A FEW DEGREES OFF IN THAT AREA
TO UPPER 30S FOR LOWS. ALSO DECREASED SKY COVER OVER THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY AND LOWERED WINDS EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT. ZFP UPDATE
WILL BE POSTED SHORTLY.
BORGHOFF
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1021 MB RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNTIED STATES...EXTENDING WEST INTO
THE MID SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS EAST TEXAS. SUNNY SKIES
EARLIER TODAY HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/S FORECAST PACKAGE.
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AS A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ALONG THE GULF COAST SATURDAY AND DEPARTING THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. 18Z WRF/12Z GFS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. ANALYSIS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS/AND
ISENTROPIC SURFACES INDICATE THE BEST LIFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AT BEST. ALSO...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND KEPT CHANCE
POPS AND HIGHER CONFINED TO POINTS MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...LATEST 12Z ECMWF/GFS
LONG RANGE MODEL RUN IN BETTER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS.
HOWEVER...SOME TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE TO POSE A CHALLENGE TO
TIMING OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING IN
LONG RANGE FORECAST. ALSO RAISED TEMPERATURES UP TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT/S 00Z MODEL RUN.
CJC
AVIATION
06Z TAFS
FEW CHANGES FROM THE 00Z TAFS...OTHER THAN TO PUSH BACK RAIN A
FEW HOURS AT KTUP UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
BROKEN/OVERCAST CIRRUS VEIL WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT... OVERSPREADING
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDLEVEL ALTO CUMULUS. VFR WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE.
WITH SURFACE HIGH FIRMLY IN PLACE...CALM TO LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
RAIN EVENT APPEARS LIKELY OVER NORTH MS SATURDAY EVENING. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER AT KMEM AND KMKL...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. KTUP WILL SEE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN
THE PERIOD...03Z TO 06Z. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE KTUP VICINITY
BEYOND 06Z...WHEN KTUP WILL LIKELY FALL TO MVFR.
PWB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MEM 47 67 49 63 / 10 20 20 20
MKL 41 66 45 60 / 10 10 20 20
JBR 43 65 44 62 / 10 10 20 10
TUP 44 60 48 57 / 10 50 80 30
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
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