151  
FXUS64 KMEG 151157  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
557 AM CST FRI DEC 15 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 350 AM CST FRI DEC 15 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, IN THE UPPER  
20S TO LOW 30S. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES  
FROM FALLING MORE THAN ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO PRIOR TO SUNRISE.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE  
MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN  
YESTERDAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SO  
WINDCHILL SHOULDN'T BE MUCH OF A FACTOR.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK...LIKELY PEAKING ON MONDAY WHEN HIGHS MAY APPROACH 20 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.  
 
WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK  
RESULTING IN QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER,  
IT DOES LOOK LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL GET SOME MUCH  
NEEDED RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS  
DO NOT LOOK PROMISING AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE  
AREA SHOULD SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH OF RAIN.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A BIT BY  
MIDWEEK...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. EXTENDED GUIDANCE DIVERGES QUITE  
A BIT. THE LATEST ECMWF DEVELOPS A DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA  
PENINSULA/WEST MEXICO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WHILE THE GFS FEATURES  
A DEEP TROUGH, MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION LEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY  
WEEKEND. OVERALL IT LOOKS COOLER WITH ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES AGAIN  
BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.  
 
30  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TAFS  
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH A NEAR MVFR DECK  
OF CLOUDS BASED AROUND 4-5 KFT BLANKETS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS  
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL MIX OUT THE CLOUD LAYER LEAVING  
ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED CU. WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST  
TODAY OF 7-8 KTS, WEAKENING AND BACKING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS  
TONIGHT.  
 
WLC  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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