185
FXUS64 KMEG 091246
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
646 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
UPDATE
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 352 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/
DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON LINGERING WINTRY PRECIP THIS
MORNING...THEN ON A COLD PATTERN WITH A COUPLE MORE LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES.
NEAR TERM...THIS MORNING.
DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND A MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET/RAIN/AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS
SHOULD WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MUCH OF THE ACCUMULATING WINTRY
PRECIP WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE FORECAST VALID TIME OF 12Z...BUT
PRECIP MAY LINGER UNTIL 8 OR 9 AM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
SECTIONS. THUS...EXPANDED THE HEADLINES UNTIL 8 AM AND ADDED
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...AND THE
REST OF EASTERN ARKANSAS TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THREAT
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW. SOUTH OF HERE...PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS.
HIGHS SHOULD BE REACHED THIS MORNING BEFORE ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT WILL SEND TEMPERATURES FALLING
THROUGH THE 20S OVER AREAS WITH SNOW PACK...AND TO NEAR 30 ACROSS
NORTHEAST MS THIS AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG 500MB VORT OF 40-45 UNITS
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY ALONG WITH A CORE
OF -14C TO -18C 850 MB TEMPS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE
STRONG VORT SHOULD GENERATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME SUNSHINE
LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE DRY SLOT. THIS CLEARING LOOKS QUITE
LIKELY FOR A TIME AROUND 18Z. MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...WESTERN
ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND NORTH TEXAS IS CLEAR AS OF 09Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 30 MPH. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT THE WET NATURE OF THE
SNOW SHOULD PRECLUDE MENTION IN THE GRIDS.
THE VORT MAX AND CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT...
HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. WIND CHILLS TONIGHT MAY FALL TO NEAR ZERO
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40...SO THE NEXT COUPLE OF SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL
PROVIDE CLEARING SKIES AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH SHOULD ORGANIZE OVER MEXICO AND TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE GULF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE A HANDLE ON KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP OVER CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. IT IS QUITE STRANGE TO SEE A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
OR SOUTHERN GULF AND OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. IN ADDITION...THE BEST
BAROCLINIC ZONE WOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE GULF COAST SO I/M
SKEPTICAL OF THIS TREND IN THE MODELS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A TREND BACK NORTH WITH TIME. THUS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW
FOR THE SOUTH DURING THIS TIME AND A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH.
A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL TRAIL THIS
SYSTEM WHICH MAY BRING A BAND OF SNOW WITH IT. SCHC POPS WERE
INTRODUCED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW...
CONTINUING THE TREND OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE OF
FEBRUARY.
BORGHOFF
AVIATION
12Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ADVANCES QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE SKIES BECOME
VFR AS DRY SLOT MOVES OVERHEAD. BROKEN LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY FILL BACK IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR (VFR CONDITIONS) FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BRISK FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
JLH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MEM 31 17 32 20 / 100 10 10 10
MKL 31 17 31 17 / 100 10 10 10
JBR 27 16 31 17 / 100 10 10 10
TUP 35 24 39 23 / 70 10 10 10
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
MS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALCORN-
BENTON MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-
TIPPAH-TUNICA.
TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CARROLL-
CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-MADISON-OBION-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CHESTER-
FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.
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