015
WWUS84 KMOB 090048
SPSMOB
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
648 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-090600-
UPPER
MOBILE-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-WASHINGTON-CONECUH-MONROE-BUTLER-CLARKE-
CRENSHAW-WILCOX-CHOCTAW-INLAND OKALOOSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA
ROSA-GEORGE-STONE-PERRY-GREENE-WAYNE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER
BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA
ROSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEAKESVILLE...LUCEDALE...NEW AUGUSTA...
WAYNESBORO...WIGGINS...CRESTVIEW...DESTIN...FORT WALTON BEACH...
NAVARRE...PENSACOLA...ANDALUSIA...BAY MINETTE...BREWTON...BUTLER...
CAMDEN...CHATOM...DAUPHIN ISLAND...DOWNTOWN MOBILE...EVERGREEN...
GROVE HILL...LUVERNE AND MONROEVILLE...
648 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
..IDA SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND MOVING NORTHWARD
...THIS PRODUCT WILL BE USE DIN LIEU OF THE HURRICANE LOCAL
STATEMENT UNTIL TECHNICAL ISSUES ARE RESOLVED...
AREAS AFFECTED
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED
ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN SELECT LOCATIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
WATCHES/WARNINGS
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MEXICO BEACH
FLORIDA...INCLUDING MOBILE PENSACOLA NAVARRE AND DESTIN. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INLAND TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND INTERIOR
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR MONDAY.
STORM INFORMATION...AT 600 PM CST
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST OR ABOUT
445 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND BE
NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND IDA IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AIRCRAFT DATA IS 979
MB...OR 28.91 INCHES.
..WINDS
THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO
ONSET MONDAY. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST PATH...IDA SHOULD BE LOCATED
NEAR THE MOUTH OF MOBILE BAY BY SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH NEAR HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 65 TO 75 MPH RANGE...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EXPECT 40 50 MPH WINDS INLAND WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
IDA WILL THEN TURN MORE TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CREATE A VERY WINDY
SITUATION EVEN IF IDA'S CENTER DOES PASS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO ANY
GIVEN POINT...SO DO NOT JUST FOCUS ON THE LATEST TRACK'S CENTERLINE.
POWER OUTAGES ARE A STRONG POSSIBILITY WITH THIS IDA...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST.
..STORM SURGE
TOTAL TIDE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE WEST
OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA LINE...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER REACHES OF
MOBILE BAY(INCLUDING BAYOU SARA)...DOG RIVER...THE WEST END OF
DAUPHIN ISLAND AND BAYOU LA BATRE. EAST OF ORANGE BEACH TOTAL TIDE
HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 2.5 TO 3.5 FEET. THE TIME OF ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 AM ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL EXACERBATE STORM RELATED FLOODING SINCE IDA'S FORECAST
LANDFALL IS JUST A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER. IF IDA MOVES IN
EARLIER...THE TIME OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE MAY COINCIDE WITH
LANDFALL WHICH COULD RAISE THE AFOREMENTIONED VALUES.
..SEAS
COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA SEAS WILL BUILD FROM THEIR
CURRENT 7 TO 10 FEET RANGE TONIGHT... REACHING A MAXIMUM OF 20 TO 25
FEET EARLY TUESDAY MORNING NEAR THE PEAK OF THE EVENT. FINAL
PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE DRAWING TO A CLOSE.
..TORNADOES
TORNADOES WILL MAINLY OCCUR IN IDA'S OUTER RAINBANDS FROM MIDDAY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TORNADOES ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM AND CAN HAPPEN A FEW HUNDRED MILES
FROM THE STORMS CENTER. PLEASE BE VIGILANT!
..RAINFALL
IDA'S HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
TRACK AND THIS WILL MAINLY FALL ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA. SOME 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR EAST
OF I-65...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
ISSUED LATER.
NEXT UPDATE
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MOBILE BY 11 PM.
MEDLIN
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