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FGUS75 KTFX 102204
ESFTFX
102204-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
404 PM MDT TUE JUN 10 2008
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
400 PM MST TUE JUNE 10 2008
..MONTANA WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK AS OF JUNE 2008
MONTANA WATER SUPPLY FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN GREAT FALLS IN COOPERATION AND COORDINATION WITH THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MISSOULA AND THE NATURAL
RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...USDA.
THE WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR THE 2008 SUMMER SEASON PROJECTS WATER
SUPPLIES WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
SOME BASINS FORECASTED TO BE NEAR AVERAGE. EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...WATER SUPPLIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
THESE FORECASTS ASSUME NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE AND RUNOFF CONDITIONS
FOR JUNE THROUGH JULY AND DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR MUCH BELOW AVERAGE...70
PERCENT OR LESS...OR ABOVE AVERAGE...110 PERCENT OR MORE...SNOWMELT
OR SPRING RAINS.
IN THE MOUNTAINS... JUNE 1 SNOWPACK WAS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND WELL
ABOVE LAST YEAR. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES DURING MOST OF MAY
SLOWED THE SNOWMELT. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH SNOWPACK REMAINING FOR
MOST RIVERS TO PEAK AGAIN FROM SNOWMELT. HOW HIGH THE JUNE SNOWMELT
PEAKS REACH WILL BE DEPENDANT UPON TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL.
MAY 2008 WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERAL STORMS. THE FIRST AFFECTED THE
SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE MAY 1. THIS WAS A MAJOR
WINTER STORM WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DUMPING LARGE SNOW AMOUNTS
WITH HIGH WATER CONTENT. MAJOR DAMAGE WAS DONE TO POWER LINES. MORE
THAN TWO FEET OF SNOW FELL IN THE EKALAKA AREA. THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION VALUE WAS AT MILL IRON IN CARTER COUNTY WHERE 4.98
INCHES COLLECTED. MAY 7...ANOTHER STORM HIT CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MONTANA DROPPING NEARLY ONE INCH OF PRECIPITATION IN THE BAKER AREA.
MAY 9...ANOTHER STORM DROPPED HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA WHEN 11 INCHES AT RED LODGE. AT THE SAME TIME...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH WERE RECORDED AT WINNETT. MAY 12...A NEW
DAILY SNOWFALL RECORD WAS SET AT BOZEMAN WHEN 3.7 INCHES OF SNOW
FELL. THE LAST WEEK OF MAY BROUGHT IN A VERY SLOW MOVING STORM WITH
RAIN THAT PERSISTED FOR 6 DAYS IN CENTRAL MONTANA. HIGHER POINTS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA PICKED UP NEARLY 2 FEET OF SNOW WITH THIS
STORM...WHILE 2.5 FEET OF SNOW FELL AT BADGER PASS. HEAVY RAIN FELL
OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. TWO TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN WERE COMMON OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN MONTANA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST CORNER.
FLOODING OCCURRED AT MANY LOCATIONS.
OVERALL...PRECIPITATION WAS ABOVE NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN 2/3
OF THE STATE. THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION
KEPT SNOWPACK AT HIGH LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WITH THE SEVERAL RAIN STORMS...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS IMPROVED OVER
MOST OF THE STATE.
SOME NOTEWORTHY STATISTICS...
- DILLON RECORDED 1.02 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ON MAY 22...A NEW
RECORD.
- THE STORM THE LAST WEEK OF MAY SET SEVERAL NEW RECORDS...
- MAY 23 SET SEVERAL NEW RECORD HIGH DAILY RAIN AMOUNTS. THE
HIGHEST OF THESE WAS 1.91 INCHES AT MARTINSDALE WHICH
BROKE THE RECORD SET IN 1904.
- ON MAY 24...LEWISTOWN RECEIVED 1.19 INCHES...BREAKING A
RECORD SET IN 1904.
- THE MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORM WAS 11 INCHES AT
BADGER PASS. THEY ALSO PICKED UP 31 INCHES OF SNOW DURING
THIS STORM.
- SWIFT DAM RECEIVED OVER 9 INCHES.
- IN CENTRAL MONTANA...HALF MOON PASS IN THE SNOWYS
COLLECTED NEARLY 9 INCHES OF RAIN.
- DEEP CREEK...NEAR EAST GLACIER...COLLECTED THREE INCHES ON
THE MAY 23...2.5 INCHES ON MAY 24 AND 2.31 INCHES MAY 25.
SNOWPACK...
MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK AS OF JUNE 1...
PERCENT OF PERCENT OF
AVERAGE LAST YEAR
STATEWIDE 148 374
COLUMBIA BASIN 145 271
MISSOURI BASIN 155 559
YELLOWSTONE BASIN 155 486
PRECIPITATION...
MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY PRECIPITATION AVERAGES FOR MAY...
PERCENT OF PERCENT OF
AVERAGE LAST YEAR
STATEWIDE 139 121
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 96 91
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 161 134
MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY PRECIPITATION AVERAGES FOR THE WATER YEAR...
PERCENT OF PERCENT OF
AVERAGE LAST YEAR
STATEWIDE 106 103
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 102 99
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 109 106
CALENDAR YEAR AND WATER YEAR 2008 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
SELECTED CITIES ARE SHOWN BELOW...
PERCENT OF NORMAL PERCENT OF NORMAL
CALENDAR YEAR 2008 WATER YEAR 2008
CITY JAN 1 TO MAY 31 OCT 1 TO MAY 31
BILLINGS 87 96
BOZEMAN 100 107
BUTTE 70 74
CUT BANK 112 102
DILLON 91 114
GLASGOW 152 141
GREAT FALLS 113 102
HAVRE 92 76
HELENA 95 97
KALISPELL 61 63
LEWISTOWN 98 93
MILES CITY 74 59
MISSOULA 72 73
RESERVOIRS...
MAJOR RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF JUNE 1
PERCENT OF PERCENT OF
AVERAGE LAST YEAR
STATEWIDE 82 99
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 117 100
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 68 99
PERCENT OF NORMAL RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF JUNE 1 FOR SELECTED
RESERVOIRS
RESERVOIR PERCENT OF NORMAL
JUNE JUNE
2008 2007
BIGHORN RESERVOIR 106 92
CANYON FERRY RESERVOIR 104 96
CLARK CANYON RESERVOIR 73 66
FLATHEAD LAKE 101 101
FORT PECK LAKE 55 60
FRESNO RESERVOIR 95 121
GIBSON RESERVOIR 98 113
HEBGEN RESERVOIR 103 106
HUNGRY HORSE RESERVOIR 111 118
LAKE ELWELL / TIBER RESERVOIR 105 103
LAKE KOOCANUSA 131 163
LAKE SHERBURNE 116 124
LIMA RESERVOIR 98 119
NELSON RESERVOIR 76 75
PISHKIN RESERVOIR 102 101
SWIFT RESERVOIR 121 92
WILLOW CREEK RESERVOIR 114 114
STREAMFLOW...
BELOW ARE AVERAGED RIVER BASIN RUNOFF FORECAST SUMMARIES FOR THE
PERIOD JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER. THESE FORECASTS ASSUME NEAR NORMAL
SPRING CONDITIONS AND DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR WELL BELOW AVERAGE...70 OR
LESS...OR ABOVE AVERAGE...110 OR MORE...SNOWMELT OR SPRING RAIN.
FORECASTS FOR RIVERS AND SITES WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE
PROVIDED BY THE NORTHWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER IN
PORTLAND...OREGON. FORECASTS FOR RIVERS AND SITES EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE FROM THE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
IN PLEASANT HILL...MISSOURI. ALL FORECASTS ARE IN COOPERATION AND
COORDINATION WITH NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...USDA.
MOST
PROBABLE REASONABLE REASONABLE
FORECAST MAXIMUM MINIMUM
PERIOD /PCT AVG/ /PCT AVG/ /PCT AVG/
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN
KOOTENAI RIVER
LIBBY RESVR INFLOW JUN-SEP 95 112 78
CLARK FORK
ABOVE BLACKFOOT RIVER JUN-SEP 101 132 70
ABOVE MISSOULA JUN-SEP 102 117 86
BELOW MISSOULA JUN-SEP 104 116 91
ST. REGIS JUN-SEP 104 123 85
NEAR PLAINS JUN-SEP 104 119 89
BLACKFOOT RIVER
NEAR BONNER JUN-SEP 100 110 91
BITTERROOT RIVER
AT MOUTH JUN-SEP 110 122 97
NORTH FORK FLATHEAD RIVER
NEAR COLUMBIA FALLS JUN-SEP 102 112 91
MIDDLE FORK FLATHEAD RIVER
NEAR WEST GLACIER JUN-SEP 110 122 99
SOUTH FORK FLATHEAD RIVER
HUNGRY HORSE RES INFLOW JUN-SEP 103 123 83
FLATHEAD RIVER
COLUMBIA FALLS JUN-SEP 105 117 92
FLATHEAD LAKE INFLOW JUN-SEP 106 124 89
SASKATCHEWAN RIVER BASIN
ST. MARY RIVER
NEAR BABB JUN-SEP 108 143 73
MISSOURI RIVER BASIN
RED ROCK RIVER
LIMA RES INFLOW JUN-SEP 111 223 55
BEAVERHEAD RIVER
CLARK CANYON INFLOW JUN-SEP 101 234 43
BARRETTS JUN-SEP 100 186 40
RUBY RIVER
RUBY RESERVOIR INFLOW JUN-SEP 84 110 58
BIG HOLE RIVER
NEAR MELROSE JUN-SEP 112 139 84
MADISON RIVER
HEBGEN RES INFLOW JUN-SEP 127 147 108
ENNIS RESERVOIR INFLOW JUN-SEP 116 135 96
GALLATIN RIVER
NEAR GALLATIN GATEWAY JUN-SEP 117 140 93
LOGAN JUN-SEP 124 146 101
MISSOURI RIVER
TOSTON JUN-SEP 122 130 113
FORT BENTON JUN-SEP 121 137 104
VIRGELLE JUN-SEP 119 151 88
NEAR LANDUSKY JUN-SEP 118 150 86
BELOW FORT PECK DAM JUN-SEP 121 152 90
SHEEP CREEK
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS JUN-SEP 127 165 86
SUN RIVER
GIBSON RES INFLOW JUN-SEP 111 133 90
MARIAS RIVER
NEAR SHELBY JUN-SEP 107 155 59
MUSSELSHELL RIVER
HARLOWTON JUN-SEP 139 190 88
MILK RIVER
WESTERN CROSSING JUN-SEP 146 301 58
EASTERN CROSSING JUN-SEP 128 215 42
YELLOWSTONE RIVER
YELLOWSTN LK OUTLT...WY JUN-SEP 133 150 116
CORWIN SPRINGS JUN-SEP 123 143 103
NEAR LIVINGSTON JUN-SEP 124 148 100
BILLINGS JUN-SEP 122 137 108
MILES CITY JUN-SEP 118 130 107
NEAR SIDNEY JUN-SEP 134 150 118
BOULDER RIVER
BIG TIMBER JUN-SEP 104 137 72
STILLWATER RIVER
NEAR ABSAROKEE JUN-SEP 111 130 91
CLARKS FORK YELLOWSTONE RIVER
NEAR BELFRY JUN-SEP 125 166 83
LITTLE BIGHORN RIVER
NEAR HARDIN JUN-SEP 114 143 86
TONGUE RIVER
TONGUE RIVER RES INFLOW JUN-SEP 118 141 66
POWDER RIVER
MOORHEAD JUN-SEP 191 273 109
LOCATE JUN-SEP 202 230 177
DEFINITIONS
MOST PROBABLE FORECAST...GIVEN THE CURRENT HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS TO DATE...THIS IS THE BEST ESTIMATE OF WHAT THE ACTUAL
RUNOFF VOLUME WILL BE THIS SEASON.
REASONABLE MAXIMUM FORECAST...GIVEN CURRENT HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS...THE SEASONAL RUNOFF THAT HAS A TEN (10) PERCENT
CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
REASONABLE MINIMUM FORECAST...GIVEN CURRENT HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS...THE SEASONAL RUNOFF THAT HAS A NINETY (90) PERCENT
CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
SURFACE WATER SUPPLY INDEX...
THE SURFACE WATER SUPPLY INDEX...SWSI...IS A MEASURE OF AVAILABLE
SURFACE WATER AVAILABILITY FOR THE SPRING AND SUMMER MONTHS. WATER
USERS WHO RELY ON MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION CAN USE THE INDEX TO
EVALUATE SEASONAL SURFACE WATER SUPPLIES. THE SWSI ACCOUNTS FOR
MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK...MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION...STREAMFLOW...RESERVOIR
STORAGE AND SOIL MOISTURE. SWSI VALUES ARE CALCULATED FOR 52 BASINS
IN MONTANA. SWSI VALUES ARE PROVIDED BY THE NATURAL RESOURCES
CONSERVATION SERVICE...USDA.
NUMBER OF BASINS
SWSI RATING SURFACE WATER CONDITION 2008 2007
-3.0 TO -4.0 EXTREMELY DRY 3 16
-2.0 TO 2.9 MODERATELY DRY 0 18
-1.0 TO 1.9 SLIGHTLY DRY 1 7
-0.9 TO +0.9 NEAR AVERAGE 16 6
+1.0 TO +1.9 SLIGHTLY WET 23 2
+2.0 TO +2.9 MODERATELY WET 7 2
+3.0 TO +4.0 EXTREMELY WET 2 0
NOT AVAILABLE 0 1
VALUES FOR SPECIFIC BASINS AS OF JUNE 1 2008 AND 2007 ARE LISTED
BELOW...
SWSI SWSI
BASIN 2008 2007
TOBACCO RIVER 1.6 -2.3
KOOTENAI FT. STEELE TO LIBBY DAM 0.6 0.7
TOBACCO RIVER -1.3 -2.0
KOOTENAI FT. STEELE TO LIBBY DAM -0.7 1.9
KOOTENAI RIVER BELOW LIBBY DAM 0.8 2.6
FISHER RIVER 2.5 -2.6
YAAK RIVER 1.0 -0.8
NORTH FORK FLATHEAD RIVER 0.7 0.5
MIDDLE FORK FLATHEAD RIVER 1.6 -1.4
SOUTH FORK FLATHEAD RIVER 1.3 0.3
FLATHEAD RIVER AT COLUMBIA FALLS 1.3 -0.4
SWAN RIVER -0.6 -2.0
FLATHEAD RIVER AT POLSON 1.2 -1.7
MISSION VALLEY -3.6 -3.0
LITTLE BITTERROOT RIVER -3.1 -2.3
CLARK FORK RIVER ABOVE MILLTOWN 1.5 -1.5
BLACKFOOT RIVER 0.5 -2.2
BITTERROOT RIVER 1.9 -2.6
CLARK FORK RIVER BELOW BITTERROOT RIVER 1.7 -2.4
CLARK FORK RIVER BELOW FLATHEAD RIVER 1.4 -1.8
BEAVERHEAD RIVER -0.3 -2.3
RUBY RIVER 1.1 -3.5
BIG HOLE RIVER 1.0 -1.8
BOULDER RIVER (JEFFERSON) 0.0 -3.3
JEFFERSON RIVER 1.6 -2.0
MADISON RIVER 1.1 -2.6
GALLATIN RIVER 2.0 -3.1
MISSOURI RIVER ABOVE CANYON FERRY 0.5 -2.8
MISSOURI RIVER BELOW CANYON FERRY 0.4 -2.3
SMITH RIVER 0.3 -2.3
SUN RIVER 1.4 -2.0
TETON RIVER 1.1 -3.4
BIRCH/DUPUYER CREEKS 0.7 -3.7
UPPER JUDITH RIVER 2.5 1.5
MARIAS RIVER ABOVE TIBER 1.6 -2.0
MARIAS RIVER BELOW TIBER 2.3 -2.7
MUSSELSHELL RIVER 0.2 -2.6
MISSOURI RIVER ABOVE FT. PECK 1.1 -1.3
MISSOURI RIVER BELOW FT. PECK -3.3 -4.0
ST. MARY RIVER 1.5 -0.8
MILK RIVER -0.6 ----
DEARBORN RIVER NEAR CRAIG 1.9 -3.6
YELLOWSTONE RIVER ABOVE LIVINGSTON 2.1 -3.2
SHIELDS RIVER 1.7 -3.0
BOULDER RIVER (YELLOWSTONE) 0.6 -3.3
STILLWATER RIVER 0.6 -3.4
ROCK/RED LODGE CREEKS 0.9 -3.6
CLARKS FORK RIVER 2.4 -3.0
YELLOWSTONE RIVER ABOVE BIGHORN RIVER 1.8 -3.2
BIGHORN RIVER BELOW BIGHORN LAKE 1.5 -2.7
LITTLE BIGHORN RIVER 2.1 0.9
YELLOWSTONE RIVER BELOW BIGHORN RIVER 1.7 -3.2
TONGUE RIVER 3.4 2.7
POWDER RIVER 3.4 -1.1
OUTLOOK...
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR THE REMAINDER OF JUNE SHOWS NO FORECAST
SKILL. AS A RESULT THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...BELOW OR NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF MONTANA. FOR PRECIPITATION THERE
IS A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE PRECIPITATION WILL BE BELOW NORMAL OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN MONTANA...AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
FOR THE PERIOD JULY THROUGH SEPTEMBER...STATISTICAL TOOLS SHOW THERE
IS A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. THERE IS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR PRECIPITATION THERE IS A 33
TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THERE
IS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE PRECIPITATION WILL BE BELOW NORMAL OVER
WEST AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THIS IS THE FINAL WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR THE 2008 SEASON. ISSUANCE
OF THIS PRODUCT WILL RESUME IN JANUARY FOR THE 2009 SEASON.
.END/LOSS
&
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