440
FXUS65 KGGW 162052
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
252 PM MDT WED MAY 16 2012
SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH GAVE THE REGION UPPER 80S TEMPERATURES
TODAY...MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES IMPROVING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING WITH SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
AROUND 2 TO 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
THURSDAY MORNING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME SURFACE
MOISTURE IS DRAWN AROUND THE LOW INTO EASTERN MONTANA LEADING TO
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY IN EASTERN ZONES. MARTIN
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER PATTERN OF TROUGH...THEN RIDGE...THEN TROUGH. MODELS AGREE
WITH THIS...SO WEATHER IS STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND SOMEWHAT COOL WEATHER BEGINNING AND ENDING OF THE
PERIOD...AND A SUNNY AND WARM PERIOD IN THE MIDDLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... A VERY ELONGATED UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FRIDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AS MODELS INDICATE DOWNSLOPE ARRIVING SATURDAY WHICH
WILL WRAP INTO A DRY SLOT AROUND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. COOL
TEMPS WITH GFS AND GEM INDICATING 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS 2C IN OUR
NW SAT MORN...AND WITH COOL ADVECTION CAUSING SOMEWHAT WINDY
WEATHER AS WELL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... THE UPPER RIDGE BRINGS CLEAR SKIES
AND A STRONG WARMING TREND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THICKNESSES
RISE TO THE LOWER 570S DM... INDICATING A RELATIVELY DRY WARMING
TREND WITH 80S FOR HIGHS.
TUESDAY ONWARD... THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING
TROUGH IS EXPECTEDLY FUZZY ON DETAILS. HOWEVER WE DO SEE SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH EMBEDDED MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. LOCATIONS OF SHOWERS AND DRY DOWN SLOPING IS NOT
KNOWN... BUT ITS REASONABLE TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE
LAST FEW FORECAST PERIODS AND TO ALSO START A COOLING TREND.
HICKS/SIMONSEN
AVIATION
VFR. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AROUND THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE WEST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL THEN PICK UP TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST POST
SUNRISE. GAH
GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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