154  
FXUS65 KGGW 290327  
AFDGGW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT  
927 PM MDT WED JUN 28 2017  
   
SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRI
 
 
LATEST UPDATE:  
 
POPS AND SKY WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM  
TRENDS. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD  
STANDING. MALIAWCO  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
 
SYNOPSIS: THE MAIN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ALBERTA IS SENDING A  
WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THAT IS PUSHING  
INTO FAR EASTERN MONTANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING  
WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM SCOBEY  
SOUTH THROUGH CROW ROCK ON OUR SOUTH AT 250 PM. ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT  
IS EXPECTED TO QUIET DOWN. THEN BY THURSDAY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE  
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. ALONG WITH THE TROUGH AND  
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY EXPECTED STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS  
PRODUCING ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FROM LATE  
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DIP ABOUT 10 DEGREES THURSDAY WITH THE  
TROF AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TC  
 
   
LONG TERM...FRI NIGHT THROUGH WED
 
 
UPDATE: MAIN UPDATES TO THE LONG TERM WAS IN THE FRIDAY SATURDAY  
TIME PERIOD WAS TO REMOVE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER RH'S A  
COUPLE OF PERCENT. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE  
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN SLIGHTLY FASTER. TC  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY  
NIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND AN UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING AT  
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF  
NORTHEAST MONTANA. TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD BE A  
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEFORE THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND  
EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS VARY SOME ON PRECIPITATION  
AMOUNTS, BUT WETTING RAINS FROM THIS SYSTEM DO NOT SEEM TOO LIKELY  
AT THIS POINT.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS A RIDGE BRIEFLY PASSES THROUGH  
SATURDAY, BUT A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH  
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.  
 
A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION MONDAY, RETURNING  
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. BEYOND THIS, MODELS  
SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL  
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH AROUND MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT  
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THAT NOT MUCH MORE CAN BE SAID ABOUT  
THAT AT THIS POINT.  
 
HICKFORD  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
SYNOPSIS: A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH, SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND  
INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO FUEL A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
THIS AFTERNOON THAT IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST INTO THE DAKOTA  
BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DIE DOWN, THEN  
ANOTHER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASE CHANCES OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON.  
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: MAINLY VFR, BUT SOME VCTS COULD EASILY BRING  
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES IF A STRONGER STORM HAPPENS  
TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER HEAD FOR TAF SITES, MAINLY FOR SITES IN FAR  
EASTERN MT THIS EVENING. SCT TSRA EXPECT ACROSS MOST OF NE MT  
THURSDAY.  
 
WINDS: GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS THIS  
EVENING WITH MORE ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE STRONGER  
STORMS AS THEY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY WILL KICK  
UP NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUST NEAR 30 KTS.  
 
TC  
 

 
   
GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR FORT PECK  
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN  
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.  
 

 
 

 
 
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW  
 
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