740  
FXUS65 KGGW 272016  
AFDGGW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT  
216 PM MDT THU APR 27 2017  
   
SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SAT
 
 
SYNOPTIC SETUP: A LARGE TROUGH SETS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST  
RUNNING FROM NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH SOUTHERN IDAHO AND WASHINGTON.  
A WEAK RIDGE AXIS RUNS THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR  
NORTHEAST MONTANA. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS SET UP  
JUST OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND IS PROVIDING A FOCAL POINT FOR RAIN  
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.  
 
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY: WITH POSITIONING OF THE INVERTED TROUGH TO  
THE WEST AND A MESO RIDGE TO THE EAST RADAR ECHOS ARE REACHING  
ABOUT THE PHILLIPS/VALLEY COUNTY BORDER BEFORE DYING. WITH NO  
MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE SCALE THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE  
WITH CLEARING EACH DAY EAST OF GLASGOW AND JORDAN AND CHANCES FOR  
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE WEST. GAH  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A QUICK-MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL  
MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA LATER IN THE DAY ON  
SATURDAY AND BRING SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO THE  
WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE  
OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN IMPACTING THE REGION, WITH PERIODIC  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVERY DAY OR TWO. BIGELBACH  
 
   
LONG TERM...SAT NIGHT THROUGH THU
 
 
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE NARRATIVE AS IT PERTAINS TO THE  
PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM, AND THEREFORE THE GRIDS AS A REFLECTION  
OF THAT NARRATIVE, FROM THE MORNING PACKAGE IS STILL RELEVANT AND  
THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE NECESSARY THIS  
AFTERNOON. BIGELBACH  
 
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION:  
UPPER-LEVEL MODEL WEATHER PATTERN DATA SUGGEST THAT THE EXTENDED  
FORECAST PERIOD SHOWS A SUBTLE SHIFT TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND  
WARMER PERIOD OF WEATHER. THE DISTURBANCES THAT RIDE DOWN THE  
CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL BRING OFF AND ON CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS TO  
THE REGION, MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR PRECIP TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE ROUGH AT  
BEST AND ARE REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS IN A BROAD-BRUSHED  
KIND OF WAY, SHOWING A GENERALLY LESS THAN AVERAGE FORECAST  
CONFIDENCE. THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THESE SPRING-TIME SHOWERS WILL  
LIKELY RESULT IN SPORADIC PRECIPITATION REALIZED AT ANY GIVEN  
LOCATION ACROSS NE MONTANA. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ON THE HORIZON  
FOR OUR AREA AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR A  
COMFORTABLE START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.  
 
AS IS USUALLY THE CASE, THE BEST MODEL CONSENSUS BEGINS TO FORM  
AROUND HIGHER CONFIDENCE TOWARD THE CLOSER TO CURRENT TIME.  
 
BMICKELSON  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
FLIGHT CAT: VFR.  
 
SYNOPSIS: UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MONTANA WILL KEEP  
CLOUDS AND SHOWER CHANCES TO THE WEST OF KGGW THROUGH THE CYCLE  
WITH CLEARING TO THE EAST AND AT THE OTHER TERMINALS.  
 
WIND: FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST 10-15 KTS, STRONGEST AT KGGW.  
 
GAH  
 

 
   
GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW  
 
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