197
FXUS65 KMSO 240909
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
309 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2008
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
MAINLY IN GLACIER NATIONAL PARK AND NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER UNTIL
NOON. THEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP...BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS. THE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND.
SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF WARM AND
SUNNY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HEIGHTS LOOK TO DROP 2-3 DAM ON
SATURDAY CAUSING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
ON FRIDAY. THE 1000MB-500MB THICKNESS VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
THROUGH SUNDAY SO BROUGHT TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.
A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT YET COME INTO
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING ON ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...SO WILL WAIT FOR
CONSISTENCY BEFORE INCREASING POPS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS TO
INTENSIFY IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OFF THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE ORIENTATION OF THESE FEATURES CONTINUE TO
FAVOR INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND SOUTHERN
MONTANA. AT THIS TIME THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK LOOK TO HOLD
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH
FRIDAY.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KOLATA
LONG TERM....KITSMILLER
AVIATION...KOLATA
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