825
FXUS65 KMSO 250704
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
104 AM MDT THU APR 25 2024
DISCUSSION
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST RELATIVELY WARM DAY, ALONG
WITH SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
TOMORROW WILL BE THE START OF AN OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NW. ENSEMBLE FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION DEVELOPING
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD TROUGH, THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS LEMHI COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL AIDE IN PRODUCING WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION, SNOWLEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND
5500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CURRENTLY, THERE IS AROUND A 30% CHANCE FOR
2-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN
BITTERROOT RANGE AND THE MOUNTAINS OF LEMHI COUNTY. THE
ANACONDA/PINTLER RANGE HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SEVERAL
INCHES, WITH AROUND A 60% PROBABILITY FOR UP TO 6". AS OF THIS
MORNING, IMPACTS TO AREA PASSES DUE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE NOT
EXPECTED AS CURRENT PROJECTIONS HAVE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
ARRIVING AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SLUSH IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVER LOST TRAIL PASS IF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE OVERHEAD
BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY.
FOR THE REST OF THE REGION EXPECT LIGHT SNOWFALL ABOVE 6000 FEET,
WITH A GREATER THAN 50% PROBABILITY OF 0.25" OF RAIN FROM I-90
AND POINTS SOUTH.
SHOWERY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT ARRIVES MONDAY. AROUND 60-70% OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING A WET AND COOL START TO THE
FIRST WEEK OF MAY.
AVIATION
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO DAY,
WITH SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS FOR KHRF, KBTM AND KSMN AFTER 25/2100Z
THIS AFTERNOON. ALL AVIATION SITES WILL HAVE AROUND A 50% CHANCE
IN EXPERIENCING WESTERLY GUSTS AROUND 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM
25/2200-260300Z.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page