629  
FXUS65 KMSO 230950  
AFDMSO  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT  
350 AM MDT SAT JUN 23 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD  
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD  
PRECIPITATION, CURRENTLY A BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS WEST  
CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE  
ENOUGH FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THESE  
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND  
SMALL HAIL. THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF  
EXPERIENCING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY APPEAR TO BE RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS QUITE LOW DURING THIS TIME  
FRAME, BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING  
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY  
AND MONDAY WILL BE JUMPING BACK UP TO SEASONAL READINGS AND  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY.  
 
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY ALONG A  
COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST  
MONTANA INTO LEMHI COUNTY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY  
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY UNDER A DRY WESTERLY FLOW. AFTERNOONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY  
BREEZY BOTH DAYS.  
 
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST MODELS  
DIFFER ON THE DETAILS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THEY DO SUPPORT AT  
LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE  
IS SOME MODEL SUPPORT FOR A CLOSED LOW WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL  
THAT COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY BUT AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN  
THIS SCENARIO.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS WEST  
CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING, AFFECTING KMSO AND KBTM BY MID TO  
LATE MORNING. THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF  
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE, SO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED  
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE AFFECTED  
BY A STORM, WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND  
SMALL HAIL.  
 

 
   
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MT...NONE.  
ID...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MT Page
The Nexlab ID Page Main Text Page