616
FXUS65 KMSO 091037
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
337 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2010
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DENSE FOG AND FREEZING FOG IN THE BUTTE AND
BLACKFOOT REGION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONSEQUENTLY...DENSE FOG HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN IN EFFECT DURING THIS
TIME. WEAK FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
THEREAFTER. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SCOUR OUT MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS
THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BY WEDNESDAY...WEAK STORM SYSTEMS
BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...ALONG WITH STRONGER
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC JET STREAM. AS THE FLOW ALOFT
INTENSIFIES...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES...SUCH AS LOOKOUT
PASS...FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AT PASS LEVEL ARE ANTICIPATED TO PRESENT A MINOR
TRAVEL IMPACT DURING THIS TIME. MODEL FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR BEING INTRODUCED
INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE PACIFIC JET...AREA VALLEYS WILL MIX
SUFFICIENTLY FOR LIGHT SNOW TO BECOME LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WITH BRIEF
RIDGING PERIODS WILL PLAGUE THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETERMINING THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF ANY
PARTICULAR FEATURE REMAINS DIFFICULT UNTIL FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO
SYNC WITH EACH OTHER. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT DRYING THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME.
AVIATION...STRATUS...FOG
AND FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. TERMINAL KBTM WILL EXPERIENCE A COMBINATION OF DENSE FOG
AND VERY LOW STRATUS THROUGH 09/1800Z. TERMINALS KGPI AND KMSO
WILL MAINTAIN A STRATUS DECK AND PATCHY VICINITY FOG THROUGH
09/1800Z. TERMINAL KSMN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN LOW STRATUS
THROUGH 09/2100Z.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING BUTTE/BLACKFOOT
REGION.
ID...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ZUMPFE
LONG TERM....DEROSA
AVIATION...ZUMPFE
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