867  
FXUS65 KTFX 141807  
AFDTFX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT  
1200 PM MDT TUE AUG 14 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE OVERALL  
FORECAST IS TRACKING WELL COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONS.  
 

 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW  
DAYS. AS A RESULT, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH A  
WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM ON  
THURSDAY, BUT EXPECT A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL  
AND SOUTHWEST MT BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE WEEKEND BRINGS COOLER  
TEMPERATURES AND A BROADER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAINFALL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
UPDATED 1800Z.  
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND PERHAPS  
A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF  
SMOKE COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST  
MONTANA, BUT VISIBILITY IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SMOKE  
MAY CONTINUE TO LIMIT VISIBILITY FOR MOUNTAINS AND PASSES THROUGH  
THE PERIOD AND NUMEROUS TFRS ARE IN PLACE NEAR CENTRAL MONTANA FIRES.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GOOD WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED  
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL  
BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. THE MAIN  
CONCERN NOW LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE  
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF WET/DRY THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE STORMS  
WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL MT AND SOUTHWARD. FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS  
MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR THE DRY THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT COOLER  
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,  
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, MOST OF  
THE STORMS LOOK TO BE ON THE WETTER SIDE THIS WEEKEND. BRUSDA  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
 
/ISSUED 427 AM MDT TUE AUG 14 2018/  
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL EXIT MEAGHER  
AND FERGUS COUNTIES BY 7 AM THIS MORNING, AS SHOWERS FALL ALONG  
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH. WITH AN UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY  
AND INTO WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH JUST A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A PASSING  
THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON  
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS TODAY,  
AND THEN WARM TO 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY.  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE  
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE DRY  
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTERNOON  
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BOTH THE GFS/EC SEEM TO BE IN BETTER  
AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS  
THE REGION SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A BIT,  
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY OVER SOUTHWEST MT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD  
EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT, WITH  
LIGHTER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A NEW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE  
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL  
ALLOW FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO THE  
REGION ONCE AGAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE ABOVE NORMAL  
BY NEXT TUESDAY. BRUSDA  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
GTF 84 53 92 55 / 0 0 0 0  
CTB 83 50 89 52 / 0 0 0 0  
HLN 85 54 92 56 / 0 0 0 0  
BZN 85 48 89 51 / 0 0 0 0  
WEY 81 35 82 39 / 0 0 0 0  
DLN 84 45 88 50 / 0 0 0 10  
HVR 85 53 92 55 / 0 0 0 0  
LWT 78 51 85 54 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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