318
FXUS65 KTFX 091538
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
838 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2010
UPDATE
INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST MONTANA VALLEYS
GIVEN THAT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT HIGHER DUE TO
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD COVER. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS OVER FAR NE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS FELL INTO THE
20S BELOW ZERO. CANCELLED WIND CHILL ADVISORY THIS MORNING AS
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. KEPT FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT UNTIL NOON MST WHERE VISIBILITIES REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER
OF A MILE AT TIMES...HOWEVER AM EXPECTING IMPROVING VISIBILITIES
BY LATER THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON
TRACK SO DID NOT MAKE ANY FURTHER CHANGES. MLS
AVIATION
UPDATED 1048Z.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AIRMASS STABLE.
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CAUSED LOCAL LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDS
PREVAILING BY NOON. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY
EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 350 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2010/
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO GET VERY COLD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING. AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG ARE VISIBLE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND NORTHWEST PLAINS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO
VISIBLE ACROSS SOME SOUTHWEST VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT WHERE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE
REGION. ANY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND
REMAIN CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REACHING UP TO OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. DOWN-SLOPE WINDS OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS MAY CAUSE TEMPERATURES THERE TO WARM MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY THAN EXPECTED.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES BRINGING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NIGHT
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE RIDGE
BY FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL...THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY AND PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE ROCKIES AND
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE INTO
EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE TO THE WEST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND OVER THE ROCKIES BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND A STRONG...SHARP RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE BY SUNDAY. HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL FALL
AHEAD OF A LARGE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
ROCKIES WILL AGAIN SEE SNOW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SLOWLY
WEAKENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ZELZER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 27 16 34 22 / 0 10 10 10
CTB 27 14 33 21 / 0 10 10 10
HLN 32 14 31 19 / 0 0 10 20
BZN 34 10 31 14 / 0 0 20 10
WEY 29 4 25 10 / 0 10 20 20
DLN 34 9 31 14 / 0 10 10 10
HVR 7 3 21 5 / 0 0 10 10
LWT 26 14 31 20 / 0 0 10 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY EASTERN GLACIER...
EASTERN PONDERA...EASTERN TETON...NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT...SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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