076  
FXUS65 KTFX 260947  
AFDTFX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT  
347 AM MDT WED APR 26 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL  
DISTURBANCES IS BEGINNING TO APPROACH WESTERN MT THIS MORNING. A  
FEW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE THIS MORNING, BUT  
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS  
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I15. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE, BUT MOST STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS TUESDAYS  
STORMS. AREAS OF MORNING FOG WILL ALSO AFFECT MAINLY NORTH  
CENTRAL MT THIS MORNING, WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY REMAIN  
ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LATER TONIGHT/THURSDAY,  
PRECIPITATION WILL TRY TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY, BUT WITH THE HEATING  
OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF MOSTLY SHOWERS IS  
EXPECTED. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND,  
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S. BRUSDA  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED  
WITHIN BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE CWA  
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ACCORDINGLY, MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND A  
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THAT PERIOD.  
EVEN MOST LOCATIONS ON THE PLAINS AND IN THE VALLEYS MAY RECEIVE A  
COATING TO INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW FRIDAY MORNING. THIS INCLUDES CUT  
BANK, GREAT FALLS, HELENA, AND BOZEMAN. SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER IS  
EXPECTED SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE CWA.  
HOWEVER, UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN  
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS  
BREAK-DOWN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING. THEREAFTER, WEDNESDAY LOOKS  
TO BE PRIMARILY DRY AND WARMER AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS-IN FROM  
THE WEST. NEAR-NORMAL LOWS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD, WHILE  
HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW-NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK TUESDAY. BY NEXT  
WEDNESDAY, HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
UPDATED 0450Z.  
 
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE  
CURRENT TAF CYCLE. ONE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AT THIS  
TIME AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS  
WELL, LEAVING BEHIND SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. MVFR  
OR LOWER CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY KCTB/KGTF/KLWT.  
AT KCTB, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW IFR OR LOWER  
CIGS/VIS TO DEVELOP WITH BR/FG. AFTER A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY  
OVERNIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON AS  
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. ONCE AGAIN, MVFR OR LOWER  
CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. SMALL HAIL  
AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY TS THAT DEVELOPS. MARTIN  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
GTF 50 36 47 32 / 80 50 60 50  
CTB 48 34 44 31 / 80 50 70 50  
HLN 53 36 50 33 / 70 40 40 30  
BZN 50 35 46 30 / 60 70 60 40  
WEY 40 29 37 21 / 80 80 60 40  
DLN 50 32 46 28 / 50 80 50 30  
HVR 52 36 48 33 / 30 50 70 50  
LWT 47 34 43 31 / 60 70 70 50  
 

 
   
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MT Page Main Text Page