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FGUS72 KMHX 211921
ESFMHX
NCC013-031-049-055-061-079-095-103-107-117-133-137-147-177-187-
220730-
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
321 PM EDT THU MAR 21 2019
...THE WINTER FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...
EACH WINTER AND EARLY SPRING, THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
IN MOREHEAD CITY, NORTH CAROLINA ISSUES A SERIES OF FLOOD
POTENTIAL OUTLOOKS. THESE OUTLOOKS ESTIMATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
RIVER FLOODING ACROSS OUR HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA). THE HSA
INCLUDES EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE OUTLOOK IS BASED ON THE
CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH
CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE FACTORS INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TOO RECENT PRECIPITATION, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER AND
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, STREAM FLOWS, RIVER ICE AND EXPECTED
FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
OVERALL...LATE WINTER HAS SEEN A BREAK IN THE WET PATTERN THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. HAD SEEN FROM FALL INTO EARLY WINTER. IN THE LAST
14 DAYS WE HAVE SEEN BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE
AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MANY
RIVERS STILL ABOVE NORMAL, GROUND CONDITIONS STILL WET, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAIN STILL FORECAST.
PAST PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS, HOWEVER WELL ABOVE NORMAL RAIN
IN PREVIOUS MONTHS HAS LED TO ABOVE NORMAL STREAM FLOWS.
RESERVOIRS THROUGHOUT THE REGION REMAIN AT OR ABOVE THEIR TARGET
POOL LEVELS FOR MARCH. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON
WINTER OR SPRING FLOODING.
LONG TERM PRECIPITATION...BASED ON CPC LONG LEAD OUTLOOKS, THE
SEASONAL OUTLOOK FROM MARCH THROUGH MAY SHOWS CHANCES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL. TO SEE THE FORECAST FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER. HERE IS THE LINK: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
IF NEEDED, THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
APRIL 4TH.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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