345
FNUS71 KRNK 031900
FWSRNK
SPOT FORECAST FOR HUCKLEBERRY KNOB...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 3 2024
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1500 EDT ON MAY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A FRONT WILL BRING WET CONDITIONS TO
THE FORECAST SITE BEGINNING OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, AND LASTING THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
HUMIDITY WILL RISE QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SKIES BECOME FILLED.
THERE MAY BE SOME FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY, AND THE HIGH RH'S WILL
REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH FALLING RAIN AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS. SATURDAY
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY WAS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 0.5-0.75 INCHES.
WINDS CURRENTLY ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH, BUT WILL BE QUITE
VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS, TURNING TO THE WEST THIS EVENING, AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST, AND BY SATURDAY
MORNING BECOMING STEADY OUT OF THE EAST OR ESE.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8400 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 13 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (79400 KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................63 TO 72.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........60 77 71
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH
CWR.............10 20 20
TEMP............75 75 75
RH..............42 42 42
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.8 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...8.4 7.5 5.7
MIXNG WIND DIR..S S S
MIXNG WIND SPD..13 15 16
LVORI...........1 1 1
ADI.............63 72 70
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.104 110 91
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING, THEN
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG AFTER 3 AM.
CWR (0.01 IN).......30 PERCENT INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT EARLY IN
THE EVENING, INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 6
TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING,
THEN TO THE EAST 5 TO 8 MPH TONIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 12 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 1
TO 8 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST 2 TO 8 MPH OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (33600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (500 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................45 EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 1 LATE IN
THE NIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........79 91 76 82 86 92
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RN/FG
TSTM COV........S CHC ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
CWR.............30 30 30 40 40 50
TEMP............73 66 63 62 61 60
RH..............45 64 72 77 84 88
20 FT WIND......S 6 SW 8 NW 5 E 5 E 8 E 8
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 6 6 10 10
MIX HGT (FT)....2500 700 500 700 700 800
MIXING WIND......SW 16 W 12 W 3 W 1 SE 3 SE 7
LVORI...........1 3 3 4 5 5
ADI.............45 10 3 1 3 6
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 4 3
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.39 8 2 1 3 6
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG EARLY IN
THE MORNING. AREAS OF FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING.
AREAS OF FOG LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
CWR (0.01 IN).......70 PERCENT INCREASING TO 100 PERCENT
LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING 80 PERCENT AROUND NOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MIN HUMIDITY........76 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 7 TO 9 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5300 KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................7 TO 13.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........93 90 93 92 94 93
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ISOLTD S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE
CWR.............70 90 90 80 80 90
TEMP............58 58 58 59 62 63
RH..............92 93 93 90 82 76
20 FT WIND......E 8 SE 8 E 8 E 7 SE 8 E 8
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 11 11
MIX HGT (FT)....700 900 1000 1100 1100 1100
MIXING WIND......SE 8 SE 8 E 7 E 8 SE 9 SE 8
LVORI...........6 6 6 5 4 4
ADI.............8 9 8 10 13 12
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.6 7 7 8 10 10
FORECASTER...JOYNER
REQUESTED BY...ALEX ORANGE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2412315.9/RNK
.DELDT 05/03/24
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL VAVIC@FIRENET.GOV
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