656  
FNUS71 KRNK 241340  
FWSRNK  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR 221 - VC...NC STATE PARKS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
940 AM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MARCH 24.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
LOOK FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON  
BUT MORE CLOUDS ARRIVING LATER IN THE DAY. DEWPOINTS RUNNING A  
LITTLE LOWER, SO MIN RH SHOULD BE MORE IN THE 40 TO 45 PERCENT  
RANGE, THOUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO BRING DEWPOINTS  
BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH  
AT 5 TO 10 MPH, WITH OCCASIONAL UPSLOPE GUST OF 15 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD MAX OUT BETWEEN 2PM AND 6PM  
IN THE 2000-3000 FOOT AGL RANGE, THEN DROP BACK TO THE SURFACE  
AFTER 8PM.  
 
CONTINUED INCREASING HUMIDITY INTO SATURDAY WITH WARMER  
TEMPERATURES. NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY MORNING.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-65 PERCENT).  
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.  
MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 9 TO 14 MPH.  
LVORI...............2.  
ADI.................11...INCREASING TO 25 LATE IN THE MORNING.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........57 59 60 61 61 57 56 54  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............47 49 51 53 55 57 58 60  
RH..............51 48 45 45 49 50 50 50  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 6 6 7 7 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5  
MIXNG WIND DIR..S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
MIXNG WIND SPD..9 13 14 14 14 13 13 13  
LVORI...........2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
ADI.............11 22 28 25 27 27 27 28  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).  
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE  
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 8 TO 17 MPH.  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................30...DECREASING TO 8.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........51 41 45 49 57 63  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............58 54 53 51 49 48  
RH..............57 65 69 73 79 85  
20 FT WIND......S 6 S 4 S 3 SW 3 S 3 S 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (FT)....2500 1100 700 400 400 100  
MIXING WIND......SW 14 SW 17 SW 16 SW 16 SW 17 SW 12  
LVORI...........2 2 3 3 3 4  
ADI.............30 11 7 7 7 5  
HAINES INDEX....3 2 2 2 2 3  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS LATE.  
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.  
MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO  
7 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3300 FT AGL IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 6 TO 14 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 17 TO 20  
MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................6...INCREASING TO 45.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........66 72 75 74 71 78  
WEATHER COV..... S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 10 10 10 20  
TEMP............46 45 51 55 59 61  
RH..............91 100 84 73 64 58  
20 FT WIND......S 3 S 3 S 4 S 6 S 6 S 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 15 15  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 300 1400 2300 2700 3100  
MIXING WIND......SW 7 SW 7 SW 14 SW 18 SW 20 S 18  
LVORI...........6 7 3 3 1 1  
ADI.............3 5 22 39 44 45  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 4 3  
 

 
FORECASTER...PERRY  
REQUESTED BY...JOSEPH SHIMEL  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1705139.0/RNK  
 
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