747
FNUS72 KILM 241018
FWSILM
SPOT FORECAST FOR MCLEAN RX...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
618 AM EDT WED APR 24 2024
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON APRIL 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AT 910-762-1374.
DISCUSSION
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE AREA TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT, DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.
FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT IS MODERATE.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH.
MAX MIXING HGT......6700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 22 MPH.
MAX VENT RATE.......EXCELLENT (123237 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........3.
MAX ADI.............134.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........16 18 6 3 8 5 4 14 21
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............59 65 69 72 75 77 77 78 77
RH..............69 54 46 41 38 35 36 40 43
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW W W W W W SW
20 FT WIND SPD..9 10 10 11 12 12 10 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.14 15 17 15 15 14 14 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 2.0 3.0 3.9 5.3 6.1 6.4 6.7 5.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.22 22 22 20 20 18 18 18 18
STABILITY.......B C C C C C C B B
LVORI...........3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............40 54 70 72 83 83 85 134 118
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.31 44 66 77 103 113 118 123 105
VENTRATE CAT....PR FR GD GD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD
SFC PRES (IN)...008 008 006 006 006 000 000 000 995
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
MIN MIXING HGT......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 18 MPH, SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
8 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH AROUND 8 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
MIN VENT RATE.......POOR (3408 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........8.
MIN ADI.............4.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........43 66 85 84 79 64 64 61 64 58 55 49
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
TEMP............75 71 67 64 62 62 61 60 59 59 58 57
RH..............50 59 70 77 82 84 88 90 92 94 96 95
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW NW NW W S S S SW W NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.12 9 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 4
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.W SW W NW W SW S SW SW N NW N
TRANSP WIND SPD.18 14 13 12 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
STABILITY.......B E E F F F F F F F F F
LVORI...........1 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 8 8
ADI.............80 9 8 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.66 6 6 5 5 3 3 4 4 4 3 4
VENTRATE CAT....GD PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
SFC PRES (IN)...995 995 000 000 000 006 006 006 004 004 004 005
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH
LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX MIXING HGT......7100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 13 TO 14
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX VENT RATE.......GOOD (74013 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........8.
MAX ADI.............88.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........43 38 25 15 8 20
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............57 58 65 72 75 73
RH..............95 93 72 56 48 53
20 FT WIND......N 3 N 4 N 4 NE 5 NE 5 E 6
20 FT WIND GUST.5 6 8 8 8 10
MIX HGT (FT)....400 800 2300 4400 7100 4400
TRANSPORT WIND..N 8 N 10 N 12 N 12 N 10 E 13
STABILITY.......F A A A A B
LVORI...........8 5 3 1 1 1
ADI.............4 10 34 63 88 66
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.3 8 26 50 74 56
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR FAIR GOOD FAIR
SFC PRES (IN)...30.05 30.12 30.12 30.17 30.11 30.11
FORECASTER...ARMSTRONG
REQUESTED BY...NATHAN BURMESTER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412142.0/ILM
.DELDT 04/24/24
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL NATHAN.BURMESTER@TNC.ORG
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