777  
FNUS72 KILM 201224  
FWSILM  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR ANGOLA CREEK...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
824 AM EDT THU APR 20 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON APRIL 20.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AT 910-762-1374.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXPAND WEST OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW,  
BRINGING SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS  
COULD DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. TODAY'S SEABREEZE FRONT  
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE BURN SITE BETWEEN 5 AND 6 PM WITH A SHIFT  
FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS.  
 
WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.  
 
FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...LOW.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). AREAS OF DENSE  
FOG BURNING OFF BY 9 AM. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........65 AT IGNITION...MAX 84.  
RH..................89 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 46 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 1 MPH AT  
IGNITION...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH.  
MAX MIXING HGT......300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 5200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 MPH.  
MAX VENT RATE.......41600 MPH-FT.  
MAX LVORI...........10.  
MAX ADI.............30.  
 
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........61 55 48 55 61 68 67 65 64  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC  
TEMP............65 70 77 81 83 84 84 84 83  
RH..............89 75 63 54 51 49 48 47 50  
CHC PCPN (%)....0 0 0 10 10 20 30 40 30  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW W W W W W W SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..1 4 6 6 6 5 6 6 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 10 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.6 1.2 2.5 4.2 5.2 4.8 4.3 3.9  
TRANS WND DIR...W W NW W W W W W SW  
TRANS WND SPD...2 3 5 6 7 8 8 8 7  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4  
VR MPH-FT*1000..1 2 7 16 30 40 37 33 28  
STABILITY.......C D C D D D D C C  
LVORI...........5 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2  
ADI.............2 4 8 13 20 24 24 30 27  
APARNT TMP (F)..69 74 79 82 84 85 85 85 84  
SFC PRES (IN)...013 013 013 013 013 003 003 003 003  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
EVENING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 65.  
RH..................MAX 90 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE  
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHWEST.  
MIN MIXING HGT......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH.  
MIN VENT RATE.......1265 MPH-FT.  
MAX LVORI...........6.  
MIN ADI.............2.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........56 40 32 29 29 29  
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........S CHC  
TEMP............81 76 71 68 67 65  
RH..............54 68 78 83 84 87  
CHC PCPN (%)....20 0 0 0 10 10  
20 FT WIND......S 6 S 5 S 4 SW 4 SW 5 SW 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 10 10  
MIX HGT (FT)....2700 300 300 300 300 300  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 7 S 6 S 5 SW 5 SW 6 SW 6  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3  
VR MPH-FT*1000..19 2 1 1 1 1  
STABILITY.......C F F F F F  
LVORI...........2 3 4 5 5 6  
ADI.............21 3 2 2 3 3  
APARNT TMP (F)..83 76 71 68 67 65  
SFC PRES (IN)...30.03 30.01 30.01 30.01 29.99 29.99  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 88.  
RH..................MIN 42 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH.  
MAX MIXING HGT......5700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 15 MPH.  
MAX VENT RATE.......84065 MPH-FT.  
MAX LVORI...........6.  
MAX ADI.............59.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........28 26 23 22 23 31  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............65 68 76 83 87 87  
RH..............90 85 66 52 44 43  
CHC PCPN (%)....10 0 0 0 10 10  
20 FT WIND......SW 6 SW 6 SW 7 SW 8 SW 9 SW 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 15 15 15  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 300 900 2700 5700 5400  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 7 SW 7 SW 9 SW 12 W 14 SW 15  
HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 4 4 4  
VR MPH-FT*1000..2 2 8 31 79 82  
STABILITY.......F C C C D D  
LVORI...........6 5 3 1 1 1  
ADI.............3 6 8 35 45 48  
APARNT TMP (F)..65 68 76 84 87 88  
SFC PRES (IN)...29.99 29.99 29.99 29.99 29.90 29.90  
 

 
FORECASTER...ARMSTRONG  
REQUESTED BY...ANGIE CARL  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1707264.0/ILM  
.EMAIL ACARL@TNC.ORG  
 
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