303  
FNUS72 KMHX 231235  
FWSMHX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR GOCR VC...GOOSE CREEK STATE PARK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
835 AM EDT MON APR 23 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 23.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IN NEWPORT AT (252)223-2328.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A SLOW MOVING, DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, BRINGING  
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND WIND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN  
BEFORE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE  
WEEK.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE  
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.  
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 5400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........MAX 141220 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 1.  
ADI.................MAX 83.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SFC PRESSURE........30.30 TO 30.36 INHG.  
 
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%)............71 79 78 77 79 81 81 82  
WEATHER COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....... RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV...........  
TEMP...............65 67 68 68 68 69 70 68  
RH.................63 56 51 50 51 51 51 54  
20 FT WIND DIR.....E E E E SE SE E E  
20 FT WIND SPD.....11 12 13 15 15 15 15 13  
20 FT WIND GUST....18 18 23 23 23 23 23 23  
MIX HGT (KFT)......3.6 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR....SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD....22 25 26 26 25 25 25 25  
LVORI..............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
ADI................56 79 83 82 80 81 82 81  
HAINES INDEX.......5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
VRATE MPH-FT/1000..77 126 141 139 135 136 137 135  
STABILITY CLASS....D D D D D D D D  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY IN THE EVENING, THEN RAIN  
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH  
EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........MIN 18170 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 5.  
ADI.................MIN 22.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SFC PRESSURE........30.15 TO 30.28 INHG.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%)............87 91 94 97 97 97 98 99 100 100 100 100  
WEATHER COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF  
WEATHER TYPE.......RW RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN  
TSTM COV........... ISO ISO ISO SCH  
TEMP...............66 64 63 62 61 61 61 61 60 60 60 59  
RH.................58 63 67 70 75 78 81 84 90 93 93 96  
20 FT WIND DIR.....E E E E E E E E E E E E  
20 FT WIND SPD.....13 13 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 15 15  
20 FT WIND GUST....23 14 14 14 14 14 18 18 18 18 18 18  
MIX HGT (KFT)......5.0 4.4 3.8 3.2 2.7 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR....E E E E E E E SE SE SE SE SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD....24 23 22 21 21 22 24 26 29 28 26 24  
LVORI..............1 1 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5  
ADI................74 31 29 28 28 29 27 30 26 25 23 22  
HAINES INDEX.......5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1000..121 100 83 69 57 47 44 40 34 29 23 18  
STABILITY CLASS....D D D D D D D D D D D D  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.  
MIN HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE  
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........MAX 78200 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 5.  
ADI.................MAX 62.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SFC PRESSURE........29.92 TO 30.14 INHG.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%)............100 100 96 92 95 91  
WEATHER COV........DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE  
WEATHER TYPE.......RAIN RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV...........S CHC ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD  
TEMP...............58 60 64 67 68 68  
RH.................100 90 82 77 75 77  
20 FT WIND.........E 17 SE 19 SE 19 SE 18 SE 18 SE 16  
20 FT WIND GUST....23 23 23 23 23 18  
MIX HGT (FT).......1000 1400 2500 3100 3100 2800  
TRANSPORT WIND.....SE 23 E 22 E 23 SE 25 SE 25 SE 23  
LVORI..............5 4 3 3 3 3  
ADI................21 35 51 61 61 53  
HAINES INDEX.......3 3 2 2 3 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1000..22 31 59 77 78 64  
STABILITY CLASS....D D D D C C  
 

 
FORECASTER...ELARDO  
REQUESTED BY...JOSEPH HAWLEY  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1807429.0/MHX  
.EMAIL JOSEPH.HAWLEY@NCPARKS.GOV  
 
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