415  
FNUS72 KMHX 030929  
FWSMHX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR C 27 DEEP SAND RD...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
529 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 EDT ON JULY 03.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IN NEWPORT AT (252)223-2328.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WEAKENS TODAY WITH  
PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BURN AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT  
A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER AROUND MIDDAY BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS  
FOR THE MOST PART. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY  
AS EASTERN FLOW CONTINUES AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO  
THE COAST.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.  
MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 4800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 13 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........MAX 47954 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 6.  
ADI.................MAX 45.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SFC PRESSURE........30.06 TO 30.12 INHG.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%)............19 23 25 29 33 41 46 45 44 42 38 36  
WEATHER COV........ SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....... RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........... SCH SCH SCH  
TEMP...............76 77 79 81 83 85 86 87 87 87 86 85  
RH.................94 94 88 82 72 65 63 59 59 59 63 65  
20 FT WIND DIR.....NE NE NE E E E E E E E E E  
20 FT WIND SPD.....2 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.... 5 5 5 9 9 9 9 14 14 14 14  
MIX HGT (KFT)......0.7 0.8 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.8 3.5 4.1 4.8 4.5 4.1 3.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR....E E E E E E E E E E E E  
TRANSP WIND SPD....7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 12 13  
LVORI..............6 5 4 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1  
ADI................3 12 19 25 30 34 34 35 36 40 43 45  
HAINES INDEX.......5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5  
VRATE MPH-FT/1000..4 5 7 12 20 26 32 38 44 46 47 48  
STABILITY CLASS....F F F F F F B B B B B B  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.  
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING  
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 14 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........MIN 3564 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 6.  
ADI.................MIN 4.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SFC PRESSURE........30.09 TO 30.15 INHG.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%)............36 37 37 41 50 55 58 63 66 66 66 66  
WEATHER COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........... SCH SCH SCH SCH  
TEMP...............84 83 82 80 79 78 78 77 77 76 75 75  
RH.................65 67 69 74 79 85 85 85 85 87 90 90  
20 FT WIND DIR.....E E E E E E E E NE NE NE NE  
20 FT WIND SPD.....8 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3  
20 FT WIND GUST....9 9 9 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)......3.2 2.6 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR....E E E E E E E E E E NE NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD....13 12 12 13 13 14 14 13 12 10 9 9  
LVORI..............1 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6  
ADI................43 8 5 8 9 9 9 8 8 5 4 4  
HAINES INDEX.......5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1000..41 30 23 22 18 15 13 11 8 6 5 4  
STABILITY CLASS....B B B B B B F F F F F F  
   
INDEPENDENCE DAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS  
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH  
THE DAY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.  
MIN HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL  
LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 4600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 13 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........MAX 57614 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 6.  
ADI.................MAX 51.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SFC PRESSURE........30.14 TO 30.20 INHG.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%)............68 70 69 66 61 62  
WEATHER COV........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE.......RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV...........S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE  
TEMP...............76 76 81 85 86 86  
RH.................90 94 77 67 68 68  
20 FT WIND.........NE 3 NE 5 E 7 E 9 E 9 E 8  
20 FT WIND GUST....5 9 14 9  
MIX HGT (FT).......700 1400 2400 3500 4600 4200  
TRANSPORT WIND.....NE 9 NE 10 E 12 E 13 E 13 E 12  
LVORI..............6 5 3 3 1 1  
ADI................4 11 28 37 51 43  
HAINES INDEX.......3 4 4 4 3 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1000..7 14 28 44 58 49  
STABILITY CLASS....F E E B B B  
 

 
FORECASTER...KENNEDY  
REQUESTED BY...DAVID NELSON  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1812292.0/MHX  
.DELDT 07/03/18  
.EMAIL DAVIDNELSON@FS.FED.US  
 
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