012  
FNUS72 KMHX 291123  
FWSMHX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR DUCK CREEK...NCWRC  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
723 AM EDT WED MAR 29 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON MARCH 29.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IN NEWPORT AT (252)223-2328.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING  
NORTHEAST GUSTING TO AROUND 15 MPH BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. A LOW  
STRATUS DECK WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1 THOUSAND FEET WILL ALSO MOVE  
IN AROUND THIS TIME AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID DAY.  
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM MIXING  
HEIGHT AND VENT RATE BEING REALIZED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.  
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS EARLY...BECOMING NORTHEAST 6 TO  
10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 2 TO 8 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST 9 TO 16  
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
VENT RATE...........MAX 34385 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 7.  
ADI.................MAX 43.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SFC PRESSURE........29.91 TO 30.07 INHG.  
 
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%)............57 59 64 67 61 50 44 43 40 39  
WEATHER COV........  
WEATHER TYPE.......  
TSTM COV...........  
TEMP...............56 57 59 61 63 64 66 68 70 70  
RH.................86 83 78 72 70 67 63 57 51 49  
20 FT WIND DIR.....N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE  
20 FT WIND SPD.....4 7 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 6  
20 FT WIND GUST....5 15 15 15 15 15 15 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)......0.3 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.5 2.8 3.4 3.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR....N N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD....5 8 13 16 16 15 13 12 10 9  
LVORI..............6 4 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1  
ADI................4 6 20 35 42 43 41 39 37 35  
HAINES INDEX.......4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1000..1 4 7 17 24 27 32 32 34 32  
STABILITY CLASS....F E E E C C B B B B  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46.  
MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING  
LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH  
LATE.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 8 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........MIN 1380 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 5.  
ADI.................MIN 2.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SFC PRESSURE........30.05 TO 30.15 INHG.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%)............38 37 36 32 25 22 20 15 13 16 21 24  
WEATHER COV........  
WEATHER TYPE.......  
TSTM COV...........  
TEMP...............68 65 61 59 57 55 54 53 53 51 50 49  
RH.................52 58 67 72 75 80 80 80 77 80 80 80  
20 FT WIND DIR.....NE E E E E E E E E NE NE NE  
20 FT WIND SPD.....6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 5  
20 FT WIND GUST....10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)......3.1 2.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR....NE NE NE NE E E E E E E E E  
TRANSP WIND SPD....8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6  
LVORI..............1 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 5  
ADI................31 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 3  
HAINES INDEX.......3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE MPH-FT/1000..27 21 10 7 5 2 2 2 1 1 1 1  
STABILITY CLASS....B B B B B B F F F F F F  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.  
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 13 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........MAX 44160 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 5.  
ADI.................MAX 45.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SFC PRESSURE........30.14 TO 30.21 INHG.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%)............27 30 27 28 35 42  
WEATHER COV........  
WEATHER TYPE.......NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV...........  
TEMP...............49 50 57 62 65 65  
RH.................80 77 57 48 43 41  
20 FT WIND.........NE 6 NE 7 NE 9 NE 9 E 8 E 8  
20 FT WIND GUST....10 10 10 15 10 10  
MIX HGT (FT).......300 300 1400 2500 3600 3500  
TRANSPORT WIND.....E 6 NE 8 E 10 E 12 E 10 E 12  
LVORI..............5 4 2 1 1 1  
ADI................3 6 25 37 39 42  
HAINES INDEX.......4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE MPH-FT/1000..2 2 15 28 37 41  
STABILITY CLASS....F F F B B B  
 

 
FORECASTER...KENNEDY  
REQUESTED BY...CASEY PHILLIPS  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1705426.0/MHX  
.EMAIL CASEY.PHILLIPS@NCWILDLIFE.ORG  
 
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