439  
FNUS72 KMHX 211327  
FWSMHX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR KEITH DAVENPORT TRACT...NCFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
927 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 21.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IN NEWPORT AT (252)223-2328.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE NEAR THE SOUTHERN  
SECTIONS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE  
NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HURRICANE MARIA IS EXPECTED  
TO TRACK BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85.  
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS, BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 6 MPH LATE  
IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 5400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 8 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........MAX 37375 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 10.  
ADI.................MAX 32.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SFC PRESSURE........29.95 TO 30.01 INHG.  
 
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%)............20 19 19 19 20 23 29 32  
WEATHER COV........  
WEATHER TYPE.......  
TSTM COV...........  
TEMP...............74 79 82 84 85 85 85 84  
RH.................87 72 63 57 53 51 51 55  
20 FT WIND DIR.....N N N N NE NE NE NE  
20 FT WIND SPD.....3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST....5 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)......1.7 2.5 3.2 3.9 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR....NW N N N N N N N  
TRANSP WIND SPD....5 7 8 8 8 8 7 7  
LVORI..............4 3 2 2 1 1 2 2  
ADI................11 20 26 30 32 31 30 29  
HAINES INDEX.......4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4  
VRATE MPH-FT/1000..9 17 25 32 37 37 36 37  
STABILITY CLASS....F F B B B B B B  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG LATE.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.  
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE EVENING, BECOMING  
LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 8 MPH, BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND  
1 MPH LATE.  
VENT RATE...........MIN 229 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 7.  
ADI.................MIN 0.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SFC PRESSURE........29.95 TO 30.03 INHG.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%)............30 25 22 25 31 34 34 34 34 31 25 22  
WEATHER COV........ PTY  
WEATHER TYPE....... FOG  
TSTM COV...........  
TEMP...............82 78 76 74 73 72 72 71 71 70 70 69  
RH.................61 69 76 82 81 84 81 84 84 87 87 90  
20 FT WIND DIR.....NE E E E E E E E E NE N NW  
20 FT WIND SPD.....5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1  
20 FT WIND GUST.... 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)......3.7 2.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR....N NE E E E E E SE SE S SW W  
TRANSP WIND SPD....8 9 9 7 5 2 1 1 1 1 1 1  
LVORI..............2 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7  
ADI................28 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 1  
HAINES INDEX.......4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1000..29 17 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0  
STABILITY CLASS....B B B B B B F F F F F F  
 

 
FORECASTER...FREDERICK  
REQUESTED BY...APRIL SEKO  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1716101.0/MHX  
.EMAIL APRIL.SEKO@NCAGR.GOV  
 
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