822  
FNUS72 KMHX 251717  
FWSMHX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR CHALLENGE FIRE...NCFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
117 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1400 EDT ON JULY 25.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IN NEWPORT AT (252)223-2328.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH AREA AND MOVING SOUTH AND WILL  
PRODUCE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH  
THROUGH AFTERNOON. NO SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED  
OVER AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83.  
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS  
TO 20 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 4000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 8 TO 10 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........MAX 41745 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 2.  
ADI.................MAX 29.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SFC PRESSURE........30.04 TO 30.06 INHG.  
 
TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%)............46 46 46 46  
WEATHER COV........  
WEATHER TYPE.......  
TSTM COV...........  
TEMP...............82 81 83 83  
RH.................69 69 62 63  
20 FT WIND DIR.....NE NE NE NE  
20 FT WIND SPD.....11 11 11 11  
20 FT WIND GUST....17 17 17 17  
MIX HGT (KFT)......4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR....N NE NE NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD....10 9 8 8  
LVORI..............2 2 2 2  
ADI................29 26 23 22  
HAINES INDEX.......3 3 3 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1000..42 38 33 30  
STABILITY CLASS....B B B B  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY, THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY,  
THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.  
MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY  
MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 15 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........MIN 5405 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 4.  
ADI.................MIN 9.  
SFC PRESSURE........30.05 TO 30.10 INHG.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%)............48 51 52 46 34 28 28 28 28 29 30 30  
WEATHER COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.......RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV...........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
TEMP...............81 79 78 76 76 75 75 76 76 75 74 73  
RH.................67 69 71 76 76 76 76 74 74 79 82 84  
20 FT WIND DIR.....NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE  
20 FT WIND SPD.....11 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10  
20 FT WIND GUST....15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)......3.1 2.5 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR....NE NE NE NE NE NE N N N N N N  
TRANSP WIND SPD....9 10 12 13 13 14 15 15 15 15 15 14  
LVORI..............2 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4  
ADI................22 14 13 14 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9  
VRATE MPH-FT/1000..28 25 21 18 13 7 9 11 12 10 8 5  
STABILITY CLASS....B C C B B B F E E E E E  
 

 
FORECASTER...MERRELL  
REQUESTED BY...APRIL SEKO  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1713368.0/MHX  
.EMAIL APRIL.SEKO@NCAGR.GOV  
 
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