692
FNUS72 KMHX 101003
FWSMHX
SPOT FORECAST FOR ROSE BAY CANAL FIRE...NCFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
603 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 EDT ON JUNE 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN NEWPORT AT (252)223-2328.
DISCUSSION
SWERLY FLOW RETURNS TODAY, LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE, THE WARMING TREND TO
MAXTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S LATEWEEK WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE
EFFECT ON MINRHS. HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRI.
THAT SWERLY FLOW WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO ABOUT 10MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 15MPH THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO BECOME MORE SERLY. SEABREEZE IS CURRENTLY TO
CROSS THROUGH THE FIRE SITE AROUND 12-1300EDT WITH WINDS FURTHER
STRENGTHENING TO 10-15G20MPH BEHIND IT. THIS WIND PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
IMPROVED VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SCHC OF LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND TSTORMS CROSSING OVER THE FIRE SITE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSHING E OF THE AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED.
TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THU AND FRI.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES (40+%) THIS WEEKEND WITH A WEAK FRONT SLATED
TO CROSS THE AREA SAT, STALLING TO THE S. EARLY NEXT WEEK, WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT OPENS UP MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF
BRINGING GREATER CHANCES OF RAIN WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND WORKING NEWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
CURRENT ESTIMATE IS FOR AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN TOTAL
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND AN ADDITIONAL HALF AN INCH MON MORNING
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 13 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AROUND 20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
VENT RATE...........MAX 49334 MPH-FT.
LVORI...............MAX 5.
ADI.................MAX 51.
STABILITY CLASS.....3.
SFC PRESSURE........29.98 TO 30.11 INHG.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........80 81 78 84 86 88 82 86 80 83 78 83
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............72 73 76 78 80 81 83 84 85 86 85 83
RH..............87 87 82 76 72 69 67 65 63 61 63 67
20 FT WIND DIR..S SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..7 8 9 9 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 12
20 FT WIND GUST.9 9 14 14 14 14 14 14 18 18 18 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 1.5 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.0 2.5 2.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SW SW SW SW SW S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 14 14 14 13 13 13 15 15 18 20
LVORI...........5 5 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 3
ADI.............9 11 27 36 40 42 47 50 51 36 40 38
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.5 5 21 28 31 34 38 41 49 45 46 39
SFC PRES (IN)...011 010 009 009 009 008 006 004 002 001 999 998
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
VENT RATE...........MIN 7589 MPH-FT.
LVORI...............MAX 4.
ADI.................MIN 13.
STABILITY CLASS.....4.
SFC PRESSURE........29.95 TO 29.97 INHG.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........85 86 93 92 93 94 91 85 82 80 75 73
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH CHC SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP............81 80 78 77 76 76 75 75 75 75 75 75
RH..............69 72 76 79 82 82 84 87 87 87 87 87
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..13 13 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
20 FT WIND GUST.23 23 18 18 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.9 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.21 20 18 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 15
LVORI...........3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
ADI.............38 22 16 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.39 26 13 10 10 11 12 11 11 9 8 8
SFC PRES (IN)...997 996 996 996 997 997 997 996 996 995 995 996
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 14 TO 17 MPH.
VENT RATE...........MAX 59569 MPH-FT.
LVORI...............MAX 4.
ADI.................MAX 70.
STABILITY CLASS.....3.
SFC PRESSURE........29.85 TO 29.98 INHG.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........65 48 40 34 22 16 15 14 14 17 23 27
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............75 76 77 80 82 85 88 90 91 92 91 90
RH..............87 85 82 72 67 63 57 54 52 52 54 56
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 9 10
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.7 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.8 3.4 3.9 4.3 4.3 3.4 2.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW W W W W W W W W SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 14 16 16 17 16 16 15 14 14 14 15
LVORI...........4 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............12 14 31 36 49 56 67 70 70 70 57 42
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.7 10 24 27 39 45 55 59 60 59 47 36
SFC PRES (IN)...997 997 998 998 997 995 993 992 990 988 986 985
FORECASTER...BOWEN
REQUESTED BY...PSC3
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2614952.5/MHX
.DELDT 06/10/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL NCFS.IMT.PLANS@NCAGR.GOV,D13OPSRM@NCAGR.GOV
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