056  
FNUS72 KMHX 181151  
FWSMHX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR QA...USMC  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
651 AM EST SUN FEB 18 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EST ON FEBRUARY 18.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IN NEWPORT AT (252)223-2328.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THEN SLIDE  
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OFF THE COAST THROUGH  
MID WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE  
WEEK THEN DISSIPATE OR LIFT NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.  
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHEAST 9 TO 13 MPH  
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH THRU MID AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 17 MPH, BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO 12  
MPH LATE.  
VENT RATE...........MAX 54164 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 6.  
ADI.................MAX 53.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
SFC PRESSURE........30.18 TO 30.36 INHG.  
 
TIME (EST) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%)............18 17 14 13 13 13 13 16  
WEATHER COV........  
WEATHER TYPE.......  
TSTM COV...........  
TEMP...............56 58 59 61 61 61 61 59  
RH.................62 55 53 48 46 44 44 47  
20 FT WIND DIR.....N N NE NE NE NE NE NE  
20 FT WIND SPD.....11 10 10 10 8 7 7 7  
20 FT WIND GUST....15 15 18 17 15 15 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)......2.6 3.0 3.3 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR....N N NE NE NE NE NE E  
TRANSP WIND SPD....20 18 15 13 12 10 10 12  
LVORI..............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
ADI................43 44 53 45 40 38 38 41  
HAINES INDEX.......3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE MPH-FT/1000..51 54 52 47 42 39 40 41  
STABILITY CLASS....E E B B B B B B  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY, THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46.  
MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 8 TO 15 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........MIN 1839 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 6.  
ADI.................MIN 5.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SFC PRESSURE........30.38 TO 30.45 INHG.  
 
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%)............21 23 36 47 53 56 61 63 67 74 77 77  
WEATHER COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....... RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV...........  
TEMP...............57 55 53 52 52 51 50 50 49 49 48 49  
RH.................49 53 57 59 59 63 71 77 83 83 89 89  
20 FT WIND DIR.....NE E E E E E E E E E E E  
20 FT WIND SPD.....7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST....10 10 10 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)......3.2 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR....E E E E E NE NE NE NE NE NE NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD....14 15 15 15 14 13 10 9 9 9 9 8  
LVORI..............2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 5 6  
ADI................9 10 10 20 15 14 7 6 6 6 6 5  
HAINES INDEX.......3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
VRATE MPH-FT/1000..43 42 38 33 26 17 8 2 2 2 2 2  
STABILITY CLASS....B B B B C C E E E E E E  
   
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.  
MIN HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING,  
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH  
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 1000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 2 TO 10 MPH, INCREASING TO 12 TO 13 MPH  
LATE.  
VENT RATE...........MAX 10120 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 9.  
ADI.................MAX 14.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SFC PRESSURE........30.35 TO 30.44 INHG.  
 
TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%)............78 80 84 78 75 73  
WEATHER COV........S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.......RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV...........  
TEMP...............49 50 58 63 66 67  
RH.................93 96 77 78 78 75  
20 FT WIND.........E 4 E 3 E 4 S 7 S 9 S 8  
20 FT WIND GUST....5 5 5 10 15 15  
MIX HGT (FT).......300 300 300 1000 1000 300  
TRANSPORT WIND.....NE 6 NE 2 E 2 SE 6 S 10 S 13  
LVORI..............7 8 4 4 4 4  
ADI................6 2 3 6 11 14  
HAINES INDEX.......3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1000..1 1 1 6 10 4  
STABILITY CLASS....F D D C C C  
 

 
FORECASTER...FREDERICK  
REQUESTED BY...JOHN MANGUS  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1802113.0/MHX  
.EMAIL JOHN.MANGUS@USMC.MIL  
 
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