113  
FNUS72 KMHX 221543  
FWSMHX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR CORBETT LANE FIRE...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
1143 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2100 EDT ON MAY 22.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IN NEWPORT AT (252)223-2328.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH  
THURSDAY AS SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS  
AFTERNOON, THOUGH EXPECT BULK OF PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN WEST OF  
NEWPORT. BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83.  
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO  
25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 4000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........MAX 76000 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 10.  
ADI.................MAX 50.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SFC PRESSURE........29.97 TO 30.07 INHG.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%)............83 82 81 79 79 78 77 76 76 76 76 77  
WEATHER COV........SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.......RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC  
TEMP...............67 70 71 78 78 79 79 80 81 83 84 83  
RH.................100 97 93 79 79 74 74 69 67 63 61 63  
20 FT WIND DIR.....S S S SW SW SW SW SW S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD.....4 4 5 6 6 10 12 12 11 11 11 10  
20 FT WIND GUST....5 5 20 20 20 20 20 20 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)......0.3 0.3 0.3 1.5 2.7 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR....S S S S SW SW SW SW S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD....1 2 3 6 8 10 12 12 13 15 16 17  
LVORI..............10 8 6 4 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1  
ADI................1 2 4 9 18 28 33 36 39 44 48 50  
HAINES INDEX.......3 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1000..0 0 1 8 22 40 49 57 66 71 76 76  
STABILITY CLASS....D D D E E E B B C C C C  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY  
MORNING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS  
LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.  
VENT RATE...........MIN 3794 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 5.  
ADI.................MIN 13.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SFC PRESSURE........29.89 TO 29.97 INHG.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%)............78 80 82 83 85 87 88 90 91 92 93 94  
WEATHER COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY  
WEATHER TYPE.......RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV...........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
TEMP...............81 79 76 76 75 74 73 73 72 72 71 71  
RH.................67 72 79 79 82 84 87 87 90 90 93 93  
20 FT WIND DIR.....S S S S SW SW SW SW SW S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD.....10 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7  
20 FT WIND GUST....15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)......3.9 3.4 2.8 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR....S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD....17 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15  
LVORI..............1 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5  
ADI................46 21 20 20 20 17 13 13 13 13 13 13  
HAINES INDEX.......3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1000..66 53 42 37 32 27 19 12 4 4 4 4  
STABILITY CLASS....C C C C C C D D D D D D  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.  
MIN HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH, INCREASING TO 15 TO  
20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH, INCREASING TO 20 TO 30  
MPH.  
VENT RATE...........MAX 145475 MPH-FT.  
LVORI...............MAX 5.  
ADI.................MAX 101.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
SFC PRESSURE........29.73 TO 29.89 INHG.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%)............95 96 95 94 91 91  
WEATHER COV........LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE  
WEATHER TYPE.......RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV...........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
TEMP...............71 73 75 77 77 77  
RH.................93 87 84 79 76 79  
20 FT WIND.........S 7 S 8 S 9 S 10 S 11 SW 12  
20 FT WIND GUST....10 10 15 20 20 20  
MIX HGT (FT).......600 1400 2600 3300 3800 3900  
TRANSPORT WIND.....SW 15 SW 17 S 23 S 29 SW 33 SW 37  
LVORI..............5 4 4 3 3 3  
ADI................14 28 51 74 90 101  
HAINES INDEX.......3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE MPH-FT/1000..10 25 59 97 125 144  
STABILITY CLASS....D D D C C C  
 

 
FORECASTER...DAIL  
REQUESTED BY...DAVIDNELSON  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1709781.2/MHX  
.EMAIL DAVIDNELSON@FS.FED.US  
 
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