295  
FXUS61 KRNK 191354  
AFDRNK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
954 AM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE  
DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY DURING  
THE WEEKEND, THEN OVERHEAD MONDAY RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER  
ACROSS THE REGION.  

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 950 AM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
SURFACE FRONT HAS SLIPPED JUST EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING  
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN PER DROP IN PWATS OFF OBSERVED  
12Z RAOBS AND LATEST BLENDED TPW. HOWEVER STILL HAVE A TRAILING  
UPPER SYSTEM NOW APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY TO CROSS THE  
REGION THIS EVENING, WITH THE MAJORITY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS  
FEATURE PROGGED TO STAY JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS STILL  
SUPPORTED BY MOST SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ESPCLY GIVEN DEGREE OF  
DRY AIR SEEN ALOFT SO WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME ADDED CLOUDS ESPCLY MOUNTAINS  
WITH HEATING ALTHOUGH APPEARS DRY ENTRAINMENT MAY LIMIT  
COVERAGE TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD FOR NOW. GIVEN LINGERING  
WARM AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH HEATING OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR UNDER  
WEAK EASTERN DOWNSLOPE, EXPECT HIGHS TO AGAIN BE AROUND 90 EAST  
AND INTO THE 80S WEST. THUS BUMPED UP HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO  
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 308 AM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
SFC FRONT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER  
EASTERN TN. DEEPER MOISTURE IS EAST OF THE CWA WITH AXIS OF  
UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING. MOISTURE  
PROFILE SHOWING DRIER AIR PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WV TRENDS.  
SHOWER THREAT TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO WV AT BEST CLOSER TO THE  
BETTER LIFT, WITH SCANT CU ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.  
 
SINCE NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS TEMPS SHOULD CLOSE TO OR MAYBE A  
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PAST DAY, AND DEWPOINTS GIVEN SOME  
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD DROP TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.  
 
TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD. LOWS WILL BE  
CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WEST, TO MID TO UPPER  
60S EAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN  
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK ZONAL FLOW WHICH CONTINUES INTO MONDAY  
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY  
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS  
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE  
PIEDMONT. DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WILL BE A  
WELCOME CHANGE. LOOK FOR A PLEASANT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW  
TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE WEST TO AROUND 70 DEGREES  
IN THE EAST.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MONDAY  
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SOLAR HEATING, LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN. THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY  
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION  
WILL FADE IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.  
 
UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL VARY FROM  
THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE EAST. LOW  
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN  
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE EAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
A WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE  
GULF STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH  
TEMPERATURES 5F TO 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL. WITH AN INCREASE IN HEAT  
AND HUMIDITY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN MOVING AND FADING  
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS IN THE EVENING.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY, MODELS ARE WANTING TO BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO  
THE GULF STATES, PUSHING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE GULF.  
CONSIDERING CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE TIME OF YEAR, MODELS LOOK TO BE OVER  
ZEALOUS WITH MOVING THIS FRONT INTO A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS. I  
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SLOWING TREND WITH THE FRONTAL  
PASSAGE BEING MORE TOWARDS THURSDAY. FOR NOW, KEPT TIMING CLOSE TO  
GUIDANCE WHILE KEEPING POPS LOW. UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA,  
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY 5F TO 10F WARMER NORMAL. FOLLOWING THE FRONT,  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5F OR COOLER THAN NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 708 AM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
FOG/STRATUS AT LWB/BCB WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z. HIGH PRESSURE TO  
BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE  
VALID PERIOD. EXCEPTION SOME VALLEY FOG AT LWB/BCB AROUND 2-3SM.  
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...  
 
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF WEEKEND UNDER WEAK  
HIGH PRESSURE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF MVFR  
CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG  
POSSIBLE ALMOST ANY DAY. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR WILL COME  
WEDNESDAY WHEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVE WITH  
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY AUG 18TH...  
 
KFCX DOPPLER RADAR EXPECTED TO BE DOWN FOR THE REST OF THE  
MONTH DUE TO A FAILING BULL GEAR. TECHNICIANS ARE WORKING ON THE  
RADAR, THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND THE RADAR WILL MOST LIKELY STAY  
DOWN COMPLETELY AS THE REPAIRS ARE BEING MADE.  
 

 
   
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP  
NEAR TERM...JH/WP  
SHORT TERM...KK  
LONG TERM...KK/RCS  
AVIATION...JH/MBS/WP  
EQUIPMENT...RAB/WERT/WP  
 
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