602  
FXUS61 KRNK 240532  
AFDRNK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
132 AM EDT TUE OCT 24 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WEEK ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD, BUT EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES  
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH GRADUAL WARMING BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
AS OF 120 AM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW  
SHOWERS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WV ALONG WITH PATCHY  
DRIZZLE. WIND WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FOG PATCHY AND NOT  
TOO DENSE, BUT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE LOW CLOUDS  
THROUGH DAWN.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUES EARLY MONDAY EVENING...  
 
MODELS INDICATE THE SURFACE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST  
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, CLEARING THE FORECAST  
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. THREATS UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE INCLUDE  
HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN THUNDERSTORM AND  
TORNADIC THREAT WILL BE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH THE HEAVIEST  
RAIN THREAT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE STRONG UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST  
WIND COMPONENT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT HIGH RAIN  
RATES.  
 
THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT  
TONIGHT. EXCEPT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS, MOST  
AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE  
FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG.  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER  
TROUGH STILL POSITIONED TO OUR WEST. THE CENTER OF THIS UPPER  
TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY  
REGION WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, THESE  
FEATURES WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD, STILL POISED WEST  
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNSET. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF  
OUR FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH, ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY  
CONFINED TO OUR WEST, BUT MAY STILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR MOUNTAINS  
COUNTIES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...  
 
UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A DEEP TROF OVER THE EASTERN PART  
OF THE COUNTRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SETTING IN. THIS WILL  
BRING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MIDWEEK.  
HOWEVER, AS THE TROF DIGS SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL COMBINE  
WITH BLUSTERY UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO  
PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES WEST OF THE RIDGE. A WET  
SNOWFLAKE OR TWO MAY ALSO BE SPOTTED AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE TROF  
AXIS PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME UPPER RIDGING AS  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FORM THE SOUTHWEST WITH DRIER CONDITIONS  
AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION  
FOR THURSDAY.  
 
THE GROWING SEASON WILL END OCTOBER 25 WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, BUT TO  
THE EAST THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL ALLOW PATCHY FROST TO THREATEN PLANTS  
BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE  
LOW TO MID 30S WEST OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH MIDDLE/UPPER  
30S TO THE EAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 60S EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK,  
WITH SOME MODERATION TO THE WEST AS READINGS GO FROM THE UPPER 40S TO  
LOWER 50S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S ON THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...  
 
THE UPPER TROF WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF AS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ENERGY  
DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. SO AFTER A BRIEF  
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS, ANOTHER COLD  
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A  
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART  
OF NEXT WEEK. A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT  
PASSES SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST  
OF THE BLUE RIDGE DRIVEN BY BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW AND VIGOROUS SHORT  
WAVE ENERGY ALOFT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO  
SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS ON MONDAY WITH FAIR BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 124 AM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
DRYING TREND THIS PERIOD, BUT WILL SEE SOME UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS IN  
THE BLF/LWB AREA THROUGH 10-12Z, WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS AT BCB. A  
LITTLE BIT OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALSO DEPICTED IN VICINITY OF  
LYH PER SATELLITE AND ADDED A TEMPO FOR LIFR CIGS HERE TIL 07Z.  
 
FOG APPEARS TO BE PATCHY DUE TO SOME MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT,  
BUT WITH WET GROUND AND SOME CLEARING, HAVE IFR VSBYS AT DAN AT  
TIMES, AS WELL AS LWB AND BCB.  
 
AFTER THE MORNING UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE WEST APPEARS WINDS PICK  
UP FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS  
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SOME SCT/BKN STRATOCU IN THE 4-6KFT RANGE  
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...  
 
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS WEDNESDAY MAY BRING A FEW  
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO THE LWB  
AREA, MAYBE BLF. APPEARS PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY FAVORS VFR  
CONDITIONS, WITH NEXT FRONT AIMED TO BRING MORE SHOWERS BY  
SATURDAY, ALONG WITH THREAT OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
AS OF 125 AM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
MAIN HYDRO ISSUES REMAIN SMALL STREAM/RIVER FLOODING ALONG  
HEADWATERS OF THE NEW RIVER IN THE NC HIGH COUNTRY AND CHESTNUT  
CREEK IN GALAX, VA AS WELL AS INDIAN CREEK IN MONROE/SUMMERS  
COUNTY, WV. SHOULD START TO SEE THESE SMALLER STREAMS RECEDE  
THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ESPECIALLY  
THE NEW AND GREENBRIER ARE LIKELY, THOUGH NO FLOODING IS  
FORECAST.  
 

 
   
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...AMS/PM/WP  
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM/WP  
SHORT TERM...MBS  
LONG TERM...MBS  
AVIATION...PM/WP  
HYDROLOGY...WP  
 
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