572
FXUS61 KRNK 090000
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. A LARGE RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC WITH A SUBTLE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
CONTINUES TO SUPPLY PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW, ADVECTING A WARM
AND MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEAK, SO DAILY STORMS WILL MAINLY DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND TERRAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCESS OF 1.50" SO RAINFALL WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT IN STORMS, AND LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR IF ANY
STORM PERSIST OVER THE SAME AREA FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME.
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT LEADING TO
BETTER FORCING IN ADDITION TO MODEST SHEAR AND MODERATE/STRONG
INSTABILITY, A MORE ORGANIZED STORM THREAT MAY BE POSSIBLE MON-
WED NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT, A FLASH FLOODING
THREAT WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR EARLY TONIGHT WITH MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z/2AM WITH DENSE FOG LIKELY FOR BCB/LWB
THROUGH 12-14Z SUNDAY MORNING. VFR TO RETURN BY LATE MORNING.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A REPEAT OF SATURDAY WITH CLOUD BUILD-
UPS EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
ORGANIZED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FORECAST PERSISTENCE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS CONTRIBUTING TO DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT ALSO EXPECTED WITH GREATEST
CONCENTRATION WITHIN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
HYDROLOGY
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY.
REPEATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AMIDST A VERY MOIST
AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 1.50" TO 2.00" RANGE.
HIGH AMBIENT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
RATES WHICH COULD EXCEED 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR. URBAN AREAS AND
ALONG MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL BE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS REPEATEDLY TRAIN OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS.
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING WETTER ACROSS
THE AREA, BUT THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL DEFICITS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG
AVIATION...PM
HYDROLOGY...BMG
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