329  
FXUS61 KRNK 232053  
AFDRNK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
353 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT  
INTO WEDNESDAY. IT WILL USHER IN COLDER TEMPERATURES, GUSTY  
NORTHWEST WINDS, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FLURRIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK  
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 330 PM EST TUESDAY...  
 
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE  
BLUE RIDGE UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL EAST TONIGHT AS THE UPPER  
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE ST. LAWRENCE  
VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF HEALTHY PRESSURE RISES AND AROUND 50 KTS  
LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR  
PEAK WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 50-55 MPH SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT ALONG THE  
BLUE RIDGE, AND THEN WIND CONTINUING TO DIMINISH INTO WEDNESDAY  
MORNING.  
 
COLD ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER FROM  
RAIN TO MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES FROM WESTERN  
GREENBRIER COUNTY SOUTHWARD INTO WATAUGA COUNTY. WITH THE COLDER AIR  
SLOWER TO ARRIVE, MOISTURE SHALLOW AND FLOW MORE WESTERLY, EXPECT  
LESS UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES. WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE  
MAY HELP SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. ANY SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN AN INCH. LOW  
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO  
THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT.  
 
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW FLURRIES ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS  
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD  
IN FROM THE WEST WITH DRIER AIR. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL  
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S  
IN THE PIEDMONT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY...  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA WILL  
LINGER INTO THURSDAY WITH COLD, BUT A NEAR NORMAL SORT OF  
AIRMASS FOR JANUARY LINGERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AN  
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SKIRTING THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MOISTURE  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS SHALLOW, BUT WILL PROVIDE  
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE  
BLUE RIDGE WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. QPF IS FORECAST TO BE A TENTH OF AN  
INCH OR LESS, WITH MOST OF THIS FALLING ALONG OUR WESTERN  
SLOPES. IT IS CONCEIVABLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET TO PICK  
UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW, BUT LOOKING FOR FLURRIES IN ADJACENT  
VALLEYS, AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL THURSDAY,  
TEMPERATURES WARMING ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY  
MOISTURE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SKIES CLEARING FOR THURSDAY  
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY.  
 
THURSDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE, BUT ACTUALLY  
REALLY CLOSE TO NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTER A FROSTY  
START FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL  
AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON  
EDGING INTO THE 50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 450 AM EST TUESDAY...  
 
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND, THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SHORT  
WAVES WITHIN A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW WILL MOVE FROM  
THE MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THE ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THIS  
COULD BE A DECENT LIQUID PRECIPITATION MAKER FOR THE FORECAST  
AREA AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS IT MOVES INTO THE  
EASTERN U.S., AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHERN MID-  
ATLANTIC COAST, WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER, FASTER AND LESS  
EXCITED BRINGING ABOUT JUST BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS. WPC SEEMS  
TO BE FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF, WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1-2  
INCHES OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA IN THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME.  
 
LITTLE CONCERN ABOUT WINTER WEATHER WITH THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT  
WEEK SYSTEM AS 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE 0C FOR SEVERAL  
DAYS, TOPPING OUT IN THE +8C TO +10C RANGE AS THE FRONT  
APPROACHES SUN-MON.  
 
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY AND TIMING BETWEEN THE  
ECMWF AND THE GFS, THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR THAT FOLLOWS INT THE  
WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE AMOUNT OF  
POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON WHICH  
SOLUTION VERIFIES. FOR NOW, WILL CARRY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS JUST  
THE ALLEGHANYS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO  
MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TOWARD -8C PER THE ECMWF,  
BUT BARELY REACH 0C PER GFS WITH A FLATTER, MORE ZONAL FLOW.  
 
AT ANY RATE, TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF JANUARY WILL  
HOVER MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THE FIRST TWO WEEKS DID, WITH  
ESSENTIALLY EQUAL PERIODS OF MODERATELY ABOVE AND MODERATELY  
BELOW NORMAL. IT COULD BE SAID THAT THE TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY  
WILL LIKELY BE GREATER THAN THE DEGREE ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1239 PM EST TUESDAY...  
 
WINDS WILL HINDER AVIATION OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO  
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE  
BLUE RIDGE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
PIEDMONT INTO THIS EVENING.  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE  
REGION. MVFR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY MORNING AT BLUEFIELD. SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS ARE  
POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY  
MORNING.  
 
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT NOT AS  
STRONG AS THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS,VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE  
TAF PERIOD.  
 
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...  
 
LOOK FOR GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH ANY RESIDUAL NORTHWEST WIND  
GUSTS ABATING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE  
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR ALL  
TERMINALS. NEXT CHANCE AT SUB-VFR IS LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH A  
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
AS OF 330 PM EST TUESDAY...  
 
NOAA WEATHER RADIO, WXL60 (ROANOKE TRANSMITTER) WHICH  
BROADCASTS AT 162.475 MHZ IS BACK ON THE AIR. DOWNTIME WAS  
APPROXIMATELY 163 HOURS... DUE TO DAMAGED FIBER OPTIC LINE  
FROM A VEHICLE ACCIDENT. REPAIRS HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.  
 

 
   
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ015>017-022.  
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...KK  
NEAR TERM...KK  
SHORT TERM...PM  
LONG TERM...RAB  
AVIATION...AL/KK  
EQUIPMENT...PM  
 
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