364
FXUS62 KGSP 241139
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
739 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY. THEN A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA...WHILE A
SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL DE-AMPLIFY TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE
A COLD FRONT TAKES MOISTURE EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SKY COVER DECREASING RAPIDLY FORM THE WEST...AND ONLY
A FEW CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TODAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL OFFSET RISING HEIGHTS...AND MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
NORTHEAST GA AND UPSTATE SC...A NEAR NORMAL IN WESTERN NC. THE
COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE MORE EVIDENT TONIGHT...AS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NO POPS ARE
PLANNED TODAY OR TONIGHT...HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD START TO RETURN
TO THE NC MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...A SERIES OF WEAK H5 SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NW AND MOVE THRU LONG WAVE TROF OVER E US FRI AND FRI
NIGHT. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT SHOWING WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE AS
WELL. MODELS NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT POPS DUE TO LACK OF DEEPER
MOISTURE BUT THERE IS A LITTLE MOISTURE INDICATED OVER MTNS SO
CONSIDERING THE WEAK UPPER FORCING WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MTNS DURING THE AFTN-EVE AND THIS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE UPPER PATTERN SAT BUT A DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES IN AND
MOISTURE INCREASES SO KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA. HI TEMPS BOTH
DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...GETTING MIXED SIGNALS FROM MODELS FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED REMAIN
OVER THE AREA. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LAYER OF LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES CONTINUING TO TRANSLATE THRU THE E
US TROF...AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ARE EXPECTED MON-TUE. FOR THE TUE
NIGHT-WED TIME-FRAME THE GFS WANTS TO MOVE THE UPPER TROF E AND BUILD
A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE H5 TROF OVER
THE E US. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
IS FOR WED SINCE AREA REMAINS IN MOIST S LOW LEVEL FLOW EITHER WAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AVG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEG
OR TWO ABOVE AVG.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. KCLT HAS EXPERIENCED HIGH END MVFR FOG EARLIER...BUT
VISIBILITY IS NOW AT THE LOW END OF VFR...WHICH WILL BE CARRIED IN
THE TAF FOR ONE HOUR BEFORE IMPROVEMENT. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY
VEER FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TODAY...AND EVEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AT
KAND WITH A LEE TROUGH EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT...HOWEVER LOW END VFR VISIBILITY IN FOG WILL BE CARRIED AT
KAVL FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DAWN FRIDAY AS COOL AIR POOLS IN THE
VALLEY.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU
FRIDAY...PROVIDING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY MAY OCCUR IN
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MVFR VISIBILITY AT NIGHT IN FOG WHERE RAIN
FALLS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RB
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...JAT
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