664
FXUS62 KGSP 080232
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
932 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IDA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE LATER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
A DRY RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERMIT EXCELLENT RADIATING
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...TEMPS REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE LATEST
LAPS GUIDANCE AT THIS HOUR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FROST FORMATION IN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...SO NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NPW ARE NEEDED. MINOR
TWEAKS TO RAISE RIDGE TOP TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER VALLEY TEMPS HAVE
BEEN MADE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER SUNDAY. THICKNESSES WILL
INCREASE AND LIGHT SLY WINDS WITH FULL SUN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH IN ITS WAKE WILL PROGRESS TO THE
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...WHEN A WELL DEFINED SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IN ITS BASE WILL CROSS OUR AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON
MONDAY NIGHT THE GFS SHOWS GULF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
SYSTEM IDA MOVING INTO GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...WITH THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.
THE TPC FORECAST FOR IDA SHOWS IT REMAINING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF
INTO TUESDAY...SO CONFIDENCE ON MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA IS NOT HIGH.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND A MOIST UPSLOPE COMPONENT
EXPECTED...THE FORECAST WILL SHOW INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUMS TEMPERATURES WILL EXPERIENCE A DOWNWARD TREND AS HEIGHTS
FALL ALOFT AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THEN DROP
OFF TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH AN EXITING
LOW PRES SYSTEM TO OUR EAST...WITH DECENT LLVL CAA AND DOWNSLOPE
FLOW ACRS THE CWFA. DRY CP AIR MASS PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
WED THRU FRIDAY UNDER CONFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF SPLIT WRN NOAM
FLOW. SO EXPECT TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR WED AND THU.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON SFC HI
PRES SHIFTING EAST OFF THE COAST...AS UPR LVL ENERGY BEGINS TO
ADVANCE EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. FOR NOW...JUST ADDED A SLGT CHC
POP FOR SATURDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY
COMPONENT POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BEFORE RETURNING TO PREDOMINANT LIGHT
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST FLOW BY NOON SUNDAY. MOS REMAINS MIXED ON FOG
POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT AT KAVL AND KAND...BUT MODEL PROFILES DO NOT
APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF AN MVFR FOG MENTION AT PRESENT. WILL CONTINUE
VFR TAFS OVERNIGHT. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY APPEAR FROM THE S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY. AREAS OF MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AROUND RIVERS
AND LAKES NEAR KAVL AND KAND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON
TUESDAY WITH A CHC SHWRS AND CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS. THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE EAST WED WITH VFR GRADUALLY RETURNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ028-029.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ068>072-082.
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ008>014-019.
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page