883
FXUS62 KILM 091347
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
930 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER BY SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
AS OF 930 AM WEDNESDAY...
NO SWEEPING CHANGES RIGHT NOW. HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FROM NRN ZONES
AS LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED OUT. WRN ZONES ARE CLEARING UP A BIT QUICKER
THAN ANTICIPATED BUT CU FIELDS SHOULD START FILLING IN NEXT HR OR
SO. WILL BE INTERESTED TO SEE IF EXTRA INSOLATION LEADS TO MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BUT WITH LACK OF FORCING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
DONT THINK THIS WILL BE THE CASE. TOWARDS EVE IS WHEN NEXT
SIGNIFICANT VORT COMES THROUGH AND RAIN CHANCES GO UP SLIGHTLY.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY VEERING TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AM AS
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO RETROGRADES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE
WEST. THE FLOW WILL OF COURSE HAVE ANY NUMBER OF EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES THAT COULD BE THE TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL TRUDGE EASTWARD AND MAKE A RUN FOR
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES LATER FRIDAY BEFORE RETREATING A BIT AND
FINALLY DISSIPATING. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN POPS AS WELL.
WITH THE INHERIT DIFFICULTY IN TIMING THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVES...WILL OPT FOR A DIURNAL STRATEGY OF HIGHER POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT BISECTING THE AREA WEST TO EAST FRIDAY WARRANTS A BIT OF AN
ADJUSTMENT IN POPS ON A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT.
MID LEVEL DRY AIR MAKES A RUN FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY AND
THE ENTIRE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. DECREASED POPS A BIT DURING
THIS PERIOD BUT WITH THE FRONT STILL MEANDERING ABOUT...CANT RULE
OUT ACTIVITY COMPLETELY.
REGARDING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WHAT ELSE IS NEW? THE MET
NUMBERS REMAIN SUPERIOR WHEN COMPARED TO THE MAV NUMBERS WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH A BLEND FOR MORNING LOWS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FEW CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING
AS THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A PROGRESSIVE EAST
COAST TROUGH PUSHING A COLD FRONT IN OR NEAR THE REGION BY LATE
MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. THE TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE AND THE FLOW
FLATTENS ONCE AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN WOULD APPEAR TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR CLIMO.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS ATTM WITH A DISSIPATING AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SAT IMAGERY INDICATING
TOPS STILL COOLING FLO-LBT SO COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS MYR. 09Z SURFACE
ANAL SHOWS OLD OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHTS ACTIVITY FROM CRE/MYR TO
SOUTH OF FLO. BEST DEWPOINTS AND WARMEST TEMPS ARE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT
WAVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE ANY REMAINING RAIN
AREAS THROUGH 16Z. SUBSIDENCE...BROKEN CLOUD COVER RESTRICTING
HEATING...AND DIVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL HAVE
A HARD TIME DEVELOPING ALONG EITHER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR THE SEA
BREEZE. AFTER 18Z SUBSIDENCE WANES...SKIES SCATTER...AND WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME POPCORN TYPE ACTIVITY
DEVELOP. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO AFFECT ANY TERMINAL.
MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS IN TAFS AFTER 01Z AT FLO/LBT AND AFTER 05Z AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WATERS
THIS PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. FROM WAVEWATCH SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO
3 FEET WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 4 FEET LATE IN THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE STORY REMAINS THE SIGNIFICANT SWELL FROM
BERTHA THAT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE
TRACK FORECAST SHOWING GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THE WAVEWATCH
NUMBERS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IF ANY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THE BEST
SWELL COMPONENT LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THREE
FEET/ELEVEN SECONDS...WHICH WILL PERSIST FOR SOME TIME. WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15
KNOTS...SEAS OF 2-4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM BERTHA WILL PERSIST
BASICALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS MAY SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WITH INITIAL PUSH FROM COLD FRONT EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ONCE BY SUNDAY.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ANY FLAG CRITERIA.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KEEBLER
NEAR TERM...MBB/HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...KEEBLER
LONG TERM...KEEBLER
AVIATION...ROSS
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