831
FXUS62 KILM 250148
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
948 PM EDT WED APR 24 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING ONLY MINOR RAIN CHANCES
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. A WARMING
TREND WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST.
UPDATE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WITH SPRINKLES
AND LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BULK OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A FEW SPOTS ENDING UP WITH CLOSE TO
0.10" FROM THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION
THOUGH AND AVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 0.05". MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS DRY, ALTHOUGH AREAS WHERE SHOWERS END UP DROPPING
0.05-0.10" WOULD HAVE A MUCH BETTER SHOT AT SEEING SOME FOG.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE ULTIMATELY PUSHING OFFSHORE
THU MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WEAK COLD FRONT RESIDES TO THE NORTHWEST AS
DELINEATED BY THE NARROW BAND OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE OFFERS UP NO COMPELLING REASONS TO MOVE THE FORECAST
OF LOW CHANCE POPS EITHER WAY THUS NO CHANGES WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. SOME STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE
OF THE BOUNDARY AS THE PUSH IS MINIMAL. THURSDAY OFFERS UP MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS EVER SO SLIGHTLY MODERATED TO THE
MIDDLE 70S OR SO.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL WHILE SHIFTING
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN
SOUTHWARD TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. ALOFT, THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION AWAY FROM
WEAK TROUGHING AS A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US SHARPENS AND
SHIFTS OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD A
MAINLY DRY FORECAST WITH PASSING LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES
AS AREAS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVE OVERHEAD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST, WINDS WILL FAVOR EASTERLY AND ALLOW
FOR A HEALTHY SEA BREEZE TO MAKE GOOD INLAND PROGRESS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES INCREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RIDGING ALOFT. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ON FRIDAY AND MID-UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SETTLE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WHILE MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS
FIRMLY IN PLACE UNTIL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHUNTS IT AWAY BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, THIS KEEPS A MAINLY DRY
AND SUNNY FORECAST IN PLAY WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND NO NOTABLE SURGE IN MOISTURE. HOWEVER, WITH THE HIGH OFF
OUR COAST, EXPECT RISING TEMPERATURES AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TAKES OVER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS
THEREAFTER. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD DRAG A
DECAYING COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND MIDWEEK, BUT RAIN
CHANCES ARE LOOKING MEAGER AT THIS TIME DUE TO SPARSE MOISTURE
AND WEAK FORCING.
TEMPERATURES START OUT NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.
THEY TAKE A TURN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH SETTLES NEARBY, BRINGING HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID
80S WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE WELL-INLAND AND UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST. NIGHTTIME LOWS LOOK TO HOLD IN THE LOW 60S.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONTINUES TONIGHT. WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA DID HAVE
SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WITH IT, BUT MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY
HAS WANED. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, BUT TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS POTENTIAL DECREASING. HAVE
NOT BOTHERED TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE
TAFS. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT, BUT WITH
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR, DO NOT THINK WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA
TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST. WEAK
GRADIENT WILL KEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS LIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY IN GROUND FOG FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...
A MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS THEN SHIFT TO OFFSHORE IN KIND OF A DISTORTED
MESS LATER TONIGHT. OFFICIALLY THE DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY BUT DON'T BE SURPRISED AT SOME ERRATIC DIRECTIONS
AS SPEEDS/FORCING WILL BE MEAGER. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET WELL INTO TONIGHT TRENDING DOWNWARD FROM THERE TO 2-3 FEET.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ENE WINDS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL HOLD STEADY AT AROUND
10-15 KTS WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING TOWARDS THE ESE AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, THEN DOWN THE EAST COAST.
EXPECT A DEFINITIVE SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BY LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES OFF OUR COAST. SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A SURGE OF
3-4 FT E TO ENE SWELLS WITH A PERIOD OF 10 SEC ARRIVING OVER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.
THESE SWELLS SCALE BACK TO 2-3 FT FOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WHILE SOUTHERLY 1-2 FT WIND WAVES BECOME MORE PROMINENT. NO
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...III
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...III
MARINE...SHK/ABW
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