051  
FXUS62 KILM 240603  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
103 AM EST WED JAN 24 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN  
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER  
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY  
MIGRATES ACROSS THE AREA. WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN  
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, ALONG WITH SHOWERS LATE SAT AND  
ESPECIALLY DURING SUN. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT  
LATE SUNDAY, A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON  
MON.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
AS OF 845 PM TUESDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DEPICTED BY THE  
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL BAND OF WIDELY  
SCATTERED MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST  
ACROSS TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE  
PRE-DAWN WED HRS. AT THE MOMENT, THIS BAND WAS LOCATED FROM NEW  
BERN ACROSS RED SPRINGS TO HARTSVILLE. AFTER THIS SECONDARY CFP,  
SFC WINDS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE WNW TO NW AND ACCOMPANIED BY  
THE SURGE OF COLDER AND CONTINUED DRIER AIR INFILTRATING THE  
FA. AHEAD OF THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT, SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE  
ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE 30S EXCEPT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF  
SOUTHEAST NC WHERE 40S WERE STILL PREVALENT. THIS LAST AREA  
WILL FOLLOW SUIT DURING THE NEST HOUR FOLLOWED BY THE SECONDARY  
COLD AND DRIER AIR PUSH.  
 
PREVIOUS......................................................  
AS OF 555 PM TUESDAY...SOME TWEAKS TO WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST  
DUE TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. AS WINDS VEER TO  
THE WEST, LOWER DEWPOINTS, IE. DRIER AIR, WILL FILTER ACROSS THE  
REGION AND OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL HELP  
DISSIPATE AND DRIVE THE SEA FOG FURTHER OFF THE COAST WITH THE  
BALD HEAD ISLAND THE LAST TO IMPROVE.  
 
PREVIOUS........................................................  
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WHAT A DIFFERENCE 8 HOURS MAKES! THIS  
MORNING STARTED WITH A LINE OF MODERATELY STRONG CONVECTION AND  
MUGGY AIR, AND IS ENDING WITH AN ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON  
WITH HIGHS EXCEEDING 70 AND DEWPOINTS CRASHING INTO THE 30S.  
 
THE CAUSE OF THIS CHANGEABLE WEATHER IS A COLD FRONT WHICH  
BISECTING THE CWA AT THIS HOUR. A LINE OF SHOWERS WHICH WAS  
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS DISSIPATED AND ONLY A FEW RESIDUAL CU  
EXIST ANYMORE. THIS IS DUE PRIMARILY DUE MUCH DRIER AIR WHICH  
HAS FILTERED INTO THE COLUMN, AND PWATS CONTINUE TO DROP AS THE  
DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT IS NEARLY 30 DEGREES F! THE  
COOL ADVECTION LAGS CONSIDERABLY SO TODAY WILL REMAIN WARM, BUT  
THE DRY AIR COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG WINDS ATOP THE PBL WILL  
ALLOW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 30MPH THROUGH THIS EVE AS THE  
DIRECTION SHIFTS GRADUALLY TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL BECOME NW  
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE  
WEST, DRIVING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND MINS ARE FORECAST TO  
BE 30 DEGREES BELOW AFTN HIGHS, FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPR  
30S.  
 
MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY BUT WILL STILL BE AROUND  
SEASONABLE NORMS IN THE UPR 50S BUT WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN, BRIGHT  
SUNSHINE, AND LIGHT WINDS, IT WILL FEEL QUITE NICE WEDNESDAY AS  
TYPICAL LATE JANUARY WEATHER SETS UP.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A DRY AIR MASS WILL GET EVEN DRIER AS  
MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE  
MIGRATES EASTWARD. MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE UP  
JUST ABOVE H85 WED EVE BUT ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES OFF SHORE,  
DEEP NW-N FLOW WILL FUNNEL IN EVEN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER  
AIR. PCP WATER LEVELS WILL DROP FROM ALREADY DRY LEVELS NEAR  
.35 TO NEAR .20 INCHES. ASIDE FROM A FEW PASSING CLOUDS AS MID  
TO UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WED EVE, EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH  
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY ON THURS AND CLEAR SKIES AT  
NIGHT. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 20S THROUGH  
THURS. THE 850 TEMPS WILL DROP FROM AROUND 2C WED EVE TO -2C BY  
EARLY THURS MORNING. CAA OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT WILL HELP BRING  
TEMPS DOWN CLOSE TO 30 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK. THIS SHOT OF  
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY IN, LEAVING TEMPS SLIGHTLY  
BELOW NORMAL ON THURS, WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50.  
 
GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE THURS NIGHT AS HIGH  
PRESSURE MIGRATES OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR CALM WINDS ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE AREA AND A CONTINUED CLOUD FREE SKY. TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO  
THE MID 20S INLAND TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE COAST THURS NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN  
U.S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING UPPER  
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH THE  
TROUGH BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECWMF/CANADIAN/NAVGEM THAT  
STRONGLY INFLUENCE OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY  
NIGHT.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST FRIDAY SHOULD MOVE  
OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODIFIED MARINE  
AIRMASS TO SPREAD BACK ONSHORE WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AND  
DEWPOINTS FOR SATURDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH SHOULD  
DIG INTO THE EASTERN U.S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS IS  
ANOMALOUSLY FLATTER WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO VIRTUALLY ALL  
OTHER MODELS, AND THE SURFACE LOW IT DEVELOPS REMAINS WEAK AND  
TRICKLES EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA. OTHER MODELS SHOW A STRONGER  
SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND THROUGH  
THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS REGION ON SUNDAY, DRAWING IN A STRONGER  
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. FOLLOWING THE MORE  
AMPLIFIED MODELS, WE'RE FORECASTING POPS INCREASING TO 60-70  
PERCENT ON SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE ECMWF SHOW MODEST  
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY POSSIBLE, AND WE'LL MAINTAIN THE  
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
ALL MODELS SHOW CLEARING DEVELOPING MONDAY AS A GLANCING SHOT OF  
CANADIAN AIR SPREADS INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. LOW  
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS COULD DROP TO FREEZING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH  
THE PERIOD. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT  
CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING. LIKELY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH  
THE FRONT BUT LITTLE MORE. FRONT WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT  
OF COLDER AIR AND KICK UP NORTHWEST WINDS A BIT OVERNIGHT. VFR  
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY WEST  
TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  
AS OF 845 PM TUESDAY...DENSE SEA FOG HAS BEEN CANCELLED. LATEST  
GOES 16 IMAGERY IE. 10.3-3.9 MICRON, ILLUSTRATES THE DEEPER SEA  
FOG NOW NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WITH A FEW POCKETS CLOSER  
TO 20 NM OUT. WITH 40S SFC DEWPOINTS ADVECTING ACROSS THE LOCAL  
WATERS AT THE MOMENT, AND PROGGED 30S TO DROP INTO THE 30S, SEA  
FOG WILL NO LONGER BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE FA AND HAS BEEN  
CANCELLED.  
 
SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE PRE-DAWN WED HRS...MAINLY FOR  
RISEN SIGNIFICANT SEAS FROM EARLIER STRONG S-SW WINDS. SEAS WILL  
ESPECIALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ONCE WINDS FURTHER VEER TO THE WNW  
TO NW AFTER THE SECONDARY CFP. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN 6 TO 8  
SECONDS, A PSEUDO OR BORDERLINE SWELL.  
 
PREVIOUS......................................................  
AS OF 600 PM TUESDAY...EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO 10 PM  
TONIGHT. EXTENDED THE SCA TO 3 AM WEDNESDAY.  
 
LATEST SAT IMAGERY SPECIFICALLY THE 10.3-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL,  
DISPLAYS THE SEA FOG NICELY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AS THE  
DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE LOCAL WATERS UNDER WESTERLY WINDS,  
THE SEA FOG WILL BOTH GET PUSHED EASTWARD WHILE DISSIPATING AT  
THE SAME TIME.  
 
LATEST SEAS AND LOCAL WINDS ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIER THAN FCST  
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE ADJUSTED BOTH WINDS  
AND SEAS AT CURRENT READINGS AND MESHED THEM WITH THE OVERNIGHT  
FCST.  
 
PREVIOUS.....................................................  
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ONGOING  
ACROSS THE WATERS WILL GRADUALLY EASE AS A FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE  
LATER THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED MUCH OF  
TONIGHT, THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS SPEEDS, 15-20  
KTS, ALONG WITH A SHIFT IN DIRECTION TO THE WEST WILL PUSH THE  
HIGHEST SEAS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS. THE SCA IS EXPECTED  
TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 6PM. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TONIGHT AND  
THEN NW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE BACKING AGAIN TO THE WEST  
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, AND THIS RELAXING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW  
SPEEDS TO FALL TO 5-10 KTS DURING WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY SEAS  
DROPPING THROUGH 3-4 FT TONIGHT AND 2-3 FT ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS WELL, ALSO THROUGH  
6PM. LATEST GOES EAST IMAGERY AND BEACH CAMS SHOW VERY DENSE FOG  
ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST AND MUCH OF THE WATERS JUST AWAY  
FROM SHORE. AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT, THE IDEAL TRAJECTORIES WILL  
FADE SO FOG WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING.  
 
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...  
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AND DRY AIR  
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THURS AS UPPER  
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  
LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS LATE WED WILL PICK UP IN NORTHERLY  
SURGE OVERNIGHT WED. THIS WILL PUSH WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS  
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WED NIGHT INTO THURS. EXPECT SEAS AROUND  
2 TO 3 FT TO RISE SLIGHTLY TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THURS BEFORE  
COMING BACK DOWN AS NORTHERLY WINDS LIGHTEN AND VEER AROUND TO  
THE NE THROUGH THURS NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE BACK DOWN TO LESS THAN  
3 FT BY FRI MORNING.  
 
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON  
FRIDAY WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA FRIDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING EASTERLY  
WINDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD  
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY, BUT WHERE  
THE LOW MOVES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IS STILL QUITE  
UNCERTAIN. THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST  
COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWING THE LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA  
WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WIND SPEED OR DIRECTION  
LOCALLY. THE BULK OF THE OTHER GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS SHOW THE  
LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT AND APPALACHIAN  
FOOTHILLS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DIFFERENCE WE'D SEE IN  
WIND/WEATHER CONDITIONS BETWEEN THESE TWO POSSIBILITIES IS  
ENORMOUS.  
 
FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION SHOWN BY THE ECWMF, CANADIAN,  
AND NAVGEM MODELS BRINGS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE  
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LONG  
SOUTHERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY  
CONDITIONS DUE TO SEAS, AND PROBABLY DUE TO WINDS TOO. SHOWERS  
WILL BECOME LIKELY WITH MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED  
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY REACH  
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING WESTERLY BEFORE  
SUNRISE MONDAY.  
 

 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR  
AMZ250-252-254-256.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...  
NEAR TERM...DCH/JDW  
SHORT TERM...RGZ  
LONG TERM...TRA  
AVIATION...III  
MARINE...  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NC Page
The Nexlab SC Page Main Text Page