017  
FXUS62 KILM 240126  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
926 PM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. HURRICANE MARIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE  
NORTHWARD A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST  
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS, STRONG  
AND FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS, AND HIGH SURF ARE ALL EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA FRIDAY,  
BRINGING COOLER WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 900 PM SATURDAY...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST  
THROUGH SUN AND FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. POWERFUL SWELL  
ENERGY GENERATED BY HURRICANE MARIA WILL BRING STRONG AND  
FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN  
EFFECT AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK. A  
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STEEP BREAKERS, UP TO 8 FT  
AND HIGHER. OTHER BEACH HAZARDS INCLUDE A STRONG LONGSHORE  
CURRENT. SOME BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE TIME OF HIGH  
TIDE. HIGH TIDE IS AT 1030P TONIGHT AND 11 AM SUN. LOW TIDE WILL  
HELP TO ENHANCE THE SEVERITY OF THE RIP CURRENTS SUN WITH ONE  
LOW TIDE DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND ANOTHER DURING THE LATER  
AFTERNOON.  
 
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY  
AS HURRICANE MARIA MOVES NORTH, REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE OF THE  
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. AT H5 AN UPPER LOW WILL  
BECOME POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. RELATIVE  
HUMIDITY IN THE H85-H5 LAYER WILL REMAIN MEAGER WITH UVVS  
LACKING THROUGH SUNDAY, THUS NO POPS ARE WARRANTED OVERNIGHT OR  
SUN. THERE WILL BE SOME FOG AROUND DURING THE EARLY MORNING  
HOURS ONCE AGAIN, BUT THIS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.  
 
IT WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BREEZY AT THE BEACHES SUN AFTERNOON AND  
EVE WITH NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH. ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER  
60S WITH LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES. HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE IN THE  
MID AND UPPER 80S WITH LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER PA-NY AREA  
IS EXPECTED TO HOOK UP WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ONCE THE  
REMNANTS OF JOSE DISSIPATE BY MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME,  
A RATHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESIDE OVER THE GULF COAST  
BETWEEN LA AND FL. AND FINALLY, HURRICANE MARIA IS EXPECTED TO  
SLOW DOWN BY MONDAY ONCE THE BLOCKING RIDGING TO IT'S NORTH  
BECOMES ESTABLISHED. FLOW AROUND THE UPPER RIDGING AND THE UPPER  
LOW WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO ACTUALLY PULL MARIA SLIGHTLY  
WESTWARD BEGINNING BY TUESDAY MORNING AT WHICH POINT IT WOULD  
BE AT THE 33 DEGREE N LATITUDE AND 72.5 LONGITUDE. A COUPLE OF  
DEGREES IN LONGITUDE TO THE WEST AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE  
DIFFERENCE FOR WHETHER HURRICANE WATCHES/WARNINGS WILL BE  
RAISED.  
 
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FA IS  
LOOKING AT BASICALLY MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS WITH  
THE EXCEPTION FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE PARTLY SUNNY MAY BE THE  
RIGHT WORDING DUE TO THE INCREASE OF EXHAUST CIRRUS EMITTED BY  
MARIA. BY TUESDAY MORNING, COULD EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS FROM  
MARIA REACH THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND POSSIBLY PROGRESS INLAND  
ACROSS THE ILM NC CWA BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. WITH MID-LEVEL  
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE, IE. SINKING AIR, OCCURRING AHEAD OF  
MARIA WILL FOR THE MOST PART KEEP THE ILM CWA PCPN- FREE.  
 
FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS, LOOKING AT THE CONTINUATION OF SUMMER LIKE  
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO  
AROUND 70. THIS IS BASICALLY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO  
NORMS.  
 
MARIA'S SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SIZE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY  
THEN PLATEAU MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, SURF  
CONDITIONS WILL SURPASS THRESHOLDS THAT REQUIRE A HIGH SURF  
ADVISORY. IN ADDITION, STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED AND MAY  
OCCUR AT ANY TIME, NOT JUST LOW TIDE, GIVEN THE SIZE OF THE  
EXPECTED SURF AND ALL OF THAT WATER THAT RUNS UP ONTO THE  
BEACHES. IN ADDITION, MINOR BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE DURING  
THIS 2 DAY PERIOD, MAINLY AT HIGH TIDE WHERE WATER MAY REACH THE  
DUNE LINES OF AREA BEACHES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR  
OFFSHORE WILL MARIA STAY. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO  
SHOW THE CENTER OF MARIA SLOWING DOWN AND STAYING JUST OFFSHORE  
CAPE HATTERAS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL  
PICK UP MARIA AND CARRIES IT OUT TO SEA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 
AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN  
CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER  
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME ONLY A  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF MARIA  
DURING MID-WEEK. WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST MAINLY  
NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER, SC. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE  
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S BUT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES MAXIMUM  
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY AND THE UPPER 70S ON  
SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S  
TO AROUND 70 TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY ARE  
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN  
THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID  
PERIOD. THE REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL BE DUE TO BR. MODEL  
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ARE  
NOT INDICATIVE OF STRATUS. HOWEVER, BASED ON WHAT TRANSPIRED  
LAST NIGHT, DID MENTION SCT STRATUS BELOW 1 KFT, AGAIN WITHIN AN  
HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE.  
 
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NE. THE STRONGEST  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUN, 10 TO 15  
KT, WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KILM, KCRE AND MYR.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE DURING  
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MON. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY  
DEVELOP AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS HURRICANE MARIA BRINGS  
ISOLATED SHOWERS TUE-WED AS IT MOVES N, WITH ITS CENTER  
REMAINING OFFSHORE. N WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT AT THE  
COASTAL TERMINALS TUE-WED.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
AS OF 900 PM SATURDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN  
EFFECT. POWERFUL LONG PERIOD SWELL ENERGY GENERATED BY HURRICANE  
MARIA WILL BRING HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 5 TO 7 FT  
TONIGHT AND TO 8 TO 10 FT SUN. THE SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS  
THE OUTER WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE N WILL KEEP THE  
WIND DIRECTION FROM THE NE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS SPEEDS WILL  
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT AND UP TO 20 TO 25 KT ON SUN.  
 
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...  
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL  
WATERS DUE TO INCREASING SIGNIFICANT SEAS.  
 
THE STORY FOR THIS TIME-LINE WILL BE THE INCREASING 15+ SECOND  
PERIOD SWELL FROM MARIA. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL PEAK IN THE 7 TO 10  
FOOT RANGE LATE SUN THRU EARLY TUE. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT  
WILL BE SLOWLY TIGHTENING AS MARIA PUSHES OR INCHES CLOSER  
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT WITH INCREASING NE WINDS  
SUN THAT WILL BACK TO THE NORTH, MON THRU MON NIGHT. WIND  
SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING WITH SCA THRESHOLD FOR WINDSPEEDS  
BEING REACHED.  
 
WITH THE INCREASING SWELLS, VERBIAGE WILL BE ADDED TO THE MWW FOR  
HAZARDOUS NAVIGATING CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS LOCAL AREA INLETS TO  
AND FROM THE ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE MOUTHS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR  
RIVER AND WINYAH BAY.  
 
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...  
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE  
CONTROLLED BY HURRICANE MARIA AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND SLOWS  
JUST OFF HATTERAS. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE NORTH  
20 TO 33 KNOTS NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS TO THE  
SOUTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE  
SAME SPEEDS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 7 TO 12 FEET NORTH  
CAPE FEAR AND DROP DOWN TO 5 TO 8 FEET SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR.  
 

 
   
COASTAL FLOODING/HIGH SURF/RIP CURRENTS
 
 
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND HIGH RIP CURRENT  
RISK HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL BEACHES. WAVE POWER WILL INCREASE  
AS MARIA'S SWELLS BUILD THROUGH MONDAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOOD  
THRESHOLDS MAY BE REACHED AT THE BEACHES GENERALLY NORTH OF CAPE  
FEAR DURING HIGH TIDE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN EARLY  
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE LEAST WE EXPECT OCEAN OVERWASH FROM THE  
WAVE RUN-UP FROM MARIA'S SWELLS, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS  
WHICH HAVE SUFFERED EROSION FROM PREVIOUS STORMS.  
 

 
 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SCZ054-056.  
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR  
SCZ054-056.  
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ106-108-  
110.  
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR  
NCZ106-108-110.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-  
254-256.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...RJD/SRP  
SHORT TERM...DCH  
LONG TERM...DRH  
AVIATION...RJD  
COASTAL FLOODING...SRP/RJD  
 
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