682
FXUS62 KILM 071129
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
629 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WARM UP BEGINS ON SUNDAY AND WILL LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WET
WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...FORECAST TEMPERATURE CURVE HAS BEEN WITHIN
ABOUT A DEGREE OF ACTUAL READINGS SO FAR THIS MORNING SO WILL LET
CURRENT FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AND FROST
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA RIDE AS IS THROUGH 8
AM. READINGS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM MID 30S INLAND TO UPPER 30S AT THE
COAST...WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPS IN THE USUAL COLD
PRONE LOCATIONS. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT COOL AND VERY DRY SURFACE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVERHEAD WHILE REORIENTING ITSELF INTO A
MORE EAST/WEST DIRECTION. MEANWHILE...H/5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ALOFT.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY WHILE
REMAINING QUITE LIGHT...THEN MORE SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL HAVE ESSENTIALLY SHUT DOWN UNDER THIS REGIME AND WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING EXPECT TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...COMING IN PRETTY CLOSE TO
CLIMO...MID TO UPPER 60S MOST PLACES. DO NOT EXPECT A RETURN OF
FROST OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST. INLAND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND
CLOSE TO NORMAL...UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT..ALLOWING AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
BELOW ARE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL DATES OF THE FIRST FROST AND FREEZE
FOR LOCATIONS BASED ON 1971-2000 NORMALS. THE FIRST FREEZE IS
DEFINED AS THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 32 DEGREES. PERHAPS A LITTLE
LESS SCIENTIFIC BUT STILL POTENTIALLY USEFUL...WE'LL USE THE FIRST
OCCURRENCE OF 37 DEGREES AS DATE OF THE FIRST FROST.
WILMINGTON......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 2. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 18
FLORENCE........AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 25. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 11
CONWAY..........AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 2. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 17
MYRTLE BEACH....AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 6. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 19
ELIZABETHTOWN...AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 20. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 2
LUMBERTON (COOP)AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 15. FIRST FREEZE: OCT 28
WHITEVILLE......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 21. FIRST FREEZE: OCT 31
SOUTHPORT (COOP)AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 24. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 8
GEORGETOWN......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 6. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 22
LAKE CITY.......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 24. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 9
MARION..........AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 22. FIRST FREEZE: OCT 30
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO
THE CAROLINAS AS IT SLIPS FARTHER OFF SHORE. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY ON
SHORE FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH MONDAY. MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SUNNY
AND DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 70S. MAY SEE A FEW CU
WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE PRESENT WITHIN A FEW THOUSAND FEET FROM THE
SURFACE. BY LATE MON RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS OFF SHORE WITH A DECENT
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE SURFACE FLOW
NEVER MAKES IT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BUT INSTEAD REMAINS EAST TO
NORTHEAST. WITH A MORE ON SHORE EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH
THE PERIOD...EXPECT DEW POINT TEMPS TO RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP MIN TEMPS UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND EXPECT TEMPS EVEN HIGHER BY MON NIGHT AS DEW
POINT TEMPS HEAD UP TOWARD 60.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BY TUESDAY QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE GETS
PULLED UP INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE GULF
WHILE H5 TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DIGS A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. BY LATE TUES
LOOKS LIKE SOME DECENT OVERRUNNING WILL TAKE PLACE AS WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE S-SE WHILE WINDS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN OUT OF THE N-NE.
THIS SHOULD BE OUR BEST CHC OF PCP AS PCP WATER REACHES ABOVE 1.5
INCHES IN DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED
AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN BEHIND IT BY WED MORNING. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS MOST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK TO THE SOUTH WHILE
NORTHERLY WINDS BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH WED INTO THURS. BY FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF
SHORE AND E-SE FLOW MAY BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS BUT
EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN PCP. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDS
AND PCP IN THE FORECAST FOR TUES WITH BEST SHOT OF PCP TUES NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED. THEN EXPECT SUNNY BUT COLDER WEATHER WED THROUGH
THURS.
TEMPS THROUGH TUES WILL REMAIN UP IN THE 70S...BUT WILL DROP OUT
WED INTO THURS WITH PLENTY OF CAA IN NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THURS. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE BY FRI BACK UP AROUND 70.
COLDEST NIGHT SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT WED WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND TEMPS NEAR 40 OR BELOW.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY THIN SCATTERED CIRRUS EXPECTED.
STRATO-CUMULUS OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS
AFTER THE INVERSION BREAKS AROUND 15Z. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND TO THE SOUTH AT
FLO/LBT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TERMINALS AS THE
INVERSION SETS UP AROUND 23Z. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING DUE
TO SOUTHEAST ONSHORE WINDS DURING THE DAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING...WITH THE FOG MOST LIKELY TO
AFFECT CRE. SINCE THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIMITED DO
NOT EXPECT IFR OR AN EXTENSIVE DURATION OF THIS EVENT. ADDITIONALLY
BY MIDNIGHT THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT 2-3K WHICH
COULD INHIBIT FURTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...FOG EXPECTED IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER.
MARINE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED OVERHEAD WHILE REORIENTING ITSELF INTO A MORE
EAST/WEST DIRECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO BECOME
MORE EASTERLY TODAY FROM THEIR PRESENT NELY DIRECTION WHILE
REMAINING QUITE LIGHT...10 KTS OR LESS...THEN MORE SOUTHERLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS MAY BECOME VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS
MOVES RIGHT OVERHEAD. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLIP
FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN INCREASING ONSHORE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING. THEREFORE WINDS ON SUN WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR
SHORE ON SUN AFTN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS.
BY MON GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN TROPICAL SYSTEM IN GULF AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...PRODUCING AN INCREASING EASTERLY WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING ON SHORE WINDS SHOULD
DRIVE SEAS UP MON THROUGH EARLY TUES REACHING AS HIGH AS 4 TO 5 FT
IN OUTER WATERS BY TUES MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...ON SHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING FARTHER OFF
SHORE. A STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND A MASSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURGE. SEAS SHOULD START OUT JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON TUES BUT
WILL SOON INCREASE WELL ABOVE SCA CRITERIA TUES NIGHT INTO WED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS. WNA MODEL DATA SHOWING SEAS
PEAKING WED NIGHT AROUND 7 TO 8 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. NEAR SHORE
WATERS SHOULD REMAIN MUCH LOWER NEAR 3 FT WITH MORE OF AN OFF
SHORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ032>034-039-
046.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-024.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ099>101.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-097.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
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