921  
FXUS62 KILM 270156  
AFDILM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
956 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE UPCOMING  
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SERIES  
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY INTO  
TUESDAY, AND AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED  
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS BEEN  
DISSIPATING AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ILM NC CWA THIS  
EVENING. NOT MUCH LEFT OF IT BUT WILL INCLUDE A WHOPPING 15% FOR  
THE NEXT HOUR 2. OTHERWISE, HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT  
PCPN-FREE. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN THE  
LOW TO MID LEVELS IN THE FORM OF STRATOCU AND ALTOCU ACROSS THE  
INLAND AREAS. THIS MOISTURE WILL SCOUR A GOOD DEAL BY THE TIME  
IT REACHES THE ILM CWA COAST. AS A RESULT, LOOKING AT PARTLY  
CLOUDY SKIES INLAND AND COULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG THE  
IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE SLIGHTLY EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG FOR THE  
PRE-DAWN HOURS BUT HELD OFF WITH ANY DENSE. SFC RIDGING ACROSS  
THE AREA FROM THE HIGH'S CENTER OFFSHORE FROM NC AND CONTINUED  
RIDGING ALOFT FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS CONTINUED THE  
OVERALL SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE FA THRU TONIGHT. LOOK FOR THE  
UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE OFF THE SE US COAST ON MON ALLOWING  
MORE CLOUDS TO INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST AS WELL AS INCREASING  
CHANCES FOR PCPN MON NIGHT.  
 
PREVIOUS.....................................................  
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...ONCE AGAIN, A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED  
TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN THE MID AND EVEN UPPER 70S MOST PLACES WITH  
60S AT THE BEACHES. A DIURNAL CU FIELD HAS FORMED, NOT AS EXTENSIVE  
AS YESTERDAY, AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES OFF OF  
THE OCEAN. A FEW VERY LIGHT RETURNS HAVE APPEARED ON RADAR BUT NO  
GROUND TRUTH OF ANY PRECIP ACTUALLY TOUCHING THE GROUND YET.  
CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF TRIGGERS, WILL BE  
KEEPING POPS TODAY BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS.  
 
FOR TONIGHT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
DOMINATING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S FOR  
MOST LOCATIONS.  
 
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANOTHER PARTLY CLOUDY YET DRY DAY AS THE  
MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC  
RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID  
TO UPPER 70S MOST PLACES. A FEW PLACES WILL HIT 80.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF DAMPENING SHORTWAVES  
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION  
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A A COLD FRONT TRAILING AT THE SURFACE.  
WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS  
TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE EITHER SIDE OF THIS TO ADDRESS ANY  
TIMING ISSUES. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA IN THE EARLY  
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK SLIGHTLY  
WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE  
SYSTEM. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TUESDAY, THERE COULD  
BE WIDESPREAD 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE 50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY...BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE INTRUSION VIA A BACK-  
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY ON THURSDAY  
WITH A LAG OF COOLER AIR ON WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A FRONTAL  
CROSSING OF THE COAST. THURSDAY MORNING LOWS MAY END UP BEING  
THE COOLEST PORTION OF THE WEEK, BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION  
CRANKS UP AGAIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A POTENT SOUTHERN  
STREAM IMPULSE. THIS SYSTEM WILL OFFER THE BEST RAIN CHANCE OF  
LATE, AND POTENTIALLY A GOOD SOAKING. RIGHT NOW THE AMPLIFIED  
NATURE OF THE SHOT-WAVE SUGGEST A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS  
CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A FEW  
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY BENEATH THE COLD POOL OF THE  
AMPLIFIED TROUGH, WITH DRYING AND COOLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH  
A COOL MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD, WITH THE  
EXCEPTION FOR THE PRE-DAWN MON HRS THRU 13Z MON WHEN MVFR  
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO BR. HAVE INCLUDED A VCNTY SHRA FOR  
THE INLAND TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRYING OUT OF THE BAND  
OF PCPN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS EVENING.  
DID NOT INCLUDE PCPN FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED BR  
FOR ALL TERMINALS BUT KEPT IT AT MVFR THRESHOLDS DURING THE  
09-13Z MON TIME FRAME. SFC HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE FROM THE  
CAROLINAS, WILL RIDGE BACK TO THE WSW ACROSS CAPE FEAR TO CAE  
LINE TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD DURING MON TO  
A POSITION FROM THE HIGH'S CENTER OFF NC COAST TO JACKSONVILLE  
FL. WINDS AS A RESULT OF THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN CHANGE WILL  
START OUT FROM THE SE-S TONIGHT AND VEER TO THE S-SW DURING MON.  
THE SFC PG WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOOSE RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS  
DROPPING BACK TO 0 TO 4 KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND 5 TO  
10 KT BY LATE MON MORNING THRU THE AFTN WITH COASTAL TERMINALS  
SEEING GUSTS AOA 15 KT DUE TO AN ACTIVE RESULTANT WIND BNDRY,  
AKA SEA BREEZE.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN A FEW  
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE  
AND AGAIN THURS NIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...  
AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM THE HIGH'S CENTER  
OFFSHORE FROM NC EXTENDS WEST ACROSS CAPE FEAR TO COLUMBIA SC.  
THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL DROP SOUTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT THRU MON.  
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND DIRECTIONS VEERING FROM SE-S TONIGHT TO  
S TO SSW ON MON AND LIKELY SW THRUOUT MON NIGHT. THE SFC PG WILL  
REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOOSE TONIGHT THRU MON, RESULTING WITH WIND  
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. COULD SEE 10-15 KT NEAR SHORE DURING THE  
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ON MON. SIGNIFICANT SEAS 2 TO 4 FT TONIGHT  
THRU MON. THE 9 SECOND PERIOD SE GROUND SWELL WILL DOMINATE THE  
SEAS SPECTRUM DURING THIS PERIOD.  
 
PREVIOUS................................................  
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTH-EASTERLY FLOW OF  
AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH  
PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS  
NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE  
BIT HIGHER, IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE, AND GUSTIER AS THE  
AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION SETS UP. SEAS WILL REMAIN RIGHT  
AROUND THE 3 FT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...  
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...VERY LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH, SOUTHEAST  
INITIALLY WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS A  
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NOT THE MOST OVERPOWERING FLOW  
HOWEVER AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS BRIEFLY BEFORE BACKING OFF  
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT LOSES SOME OF ITS IDENTITY. SIGNIFICANT  
SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM INITIAL 2-4 FOOT VALUES TO 3-5 FEET TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS.  
 
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...  
AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD  
FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED, FOLLOWED BY A WIND-SHIFT TO THE N_NE  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE 0-20  
NM WATERS. BRIEFLY THIS INTRUSION WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT WIND  
AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG AND  
PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING SE-S WINDS  
LATE THURSDAY AND AN ADVISORY MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED FOR 25 KT  
GUSTS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ITS COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS  
AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY ON THE WATER FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SC...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...SHK  
NEAR TERM...DCH/REK  
SHORT TERM...SHK  
LONG TERM...MJC  
AVIATION...DCH  
 
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