037  
FXUS62 KMHX 281350  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
950 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND MOVE  
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE  
NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE  
THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE  
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE  
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE CWA WITH SOME STRONGER CONVECTION NOW  
FIRING UP NEAR WILMINGTON. STILL EXPECTING SOME CLEARING TODAY  
AFTER THIS MORNING ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS  
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT  
MOISTURE (PW AROUND 1.25" AND TD IN THE LOW 60S) WITH BULK SHEAR  
INCREASING TO 40-50KT COULD BRING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE  
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH THIS LINE IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS  
REALIZED. MODERATE SW FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED AROUND 75-80.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF CONVECTION  
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING WILL PUSH OFFSHORE  
AROUND 9-10PM WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AFTER  
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT A CLEARING TREND LATE EVENING AND AFTER  
MIDNIGHT BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING  
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION  
FOR A STCU DECK TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT.  
LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MAINLY IN  
THE MID 50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH  
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE  
MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH A N/NE WIND FLOW  
PROVIDING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND  
THURSDAY. A DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW WILL ACTUALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES  
QUITE WARM FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S  
INLAND...BUT REMAINING IN THE LOWER 60S OVER NORTHERN OUTER  
BANKS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER  
40S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE DECENT COLD-AIR ADVECTION WITH HIGHS  
IN THE LOW/MID 60S...EXCEPT CHILLY MID 50S OVER THE NORTHERN  
OUTER BANKS.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL START TO SPREAD  
EAST FROM THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS  
REACHING THE FAR WESTERN CWA TOWARD MORNING FRIDAY. A DEEP 500  
MB TROUGH WHICH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...COUPLED WITH  
ADVECTION OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NC AHEAD OF COLD FRONT  
WILL LEAD TO A RATHER WET FRIDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS  
FORECASTS OF LIKELY POPS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. QPF TOTALS  
COULD TOP AN INCH OR BETTER IN SOME SPOTS. WILL CONTINUE MENTION  
OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. INSTABILITY IS LACKING IN  
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...BUT WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH  
AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUITE  
POSSIBLE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S OUTER BANKS  
TO LOWER 70S INLAND.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO  
AGAIN BUILD OVER EASTERN NC WITH SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE NORTH.  
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL START TO LIFT OUT OF TEXAS AND PROVIDE A  
SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES  
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED THIS MORNING. AN  
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS IS PROGGED MOVE INTO  
THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF  
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW MUCH THEY HOLD  
TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE INTO EASTERN NC. A STRONGER LINE OF PRE-  
FRONTAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY  
EVENING HOURS THAT COULD BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL IF  
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. IMPROVING CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED LATE EVENING, HOWEVER WE COULD SEE A LOW STCU DECK  
ADVECT INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. SW WINDS EXPECTED TO  
GUST TO AROUND 15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...WITH RIDGING IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND  
IN THE MID- LEVELS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY  
AND THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY  
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL OCCUR WITH SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO  
MOSTLY VFR LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL  
RIDGE AGAIN BUILDING OVER EASTERN NC.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...S/SW WINDS AROUND 10-15KT THIS MORNING  
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20KT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD  
FRONT. THE FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS AFTER  
MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING W/NW LATE. SEAS EXPECTED AROUND  
4-6 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY AND BUILD  
UP TO 7 FT TONIGHT WITH CONTRIBUTION FROM SWELL PRODUCED BY A  
LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  
WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.  
 
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL STILL BE  
ONGOING SOUTH OF OREGON INLET WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING  
INTO THURSDAY AS NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM  
THE BAHAMAS AND SENDS SWELL ENERGY TOWARD THE COAST. SEAS WILL  
SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING FROM SOUTH FRIDAY AND  
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY  
WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS BEFORE VEERING TO WESTERLY BEHIND  
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY. SEAS BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 8-9 FEET,  
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL WATERS FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS SCA  
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...SK  
NEAR TERM...SK/SGK  
SHORT TERM...SK  
LONG TERM...CTC  
AVIATION...CTC/SK  
MARINE...CTC/SK  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NC Page Main Text Page