052
FXUS62 KMHX 202148
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
448 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY...
THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY THE MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES
AS ATMOS DRIES OUT FROM THE TOP DOWN TONIGHT BUT MAY LINGER THRU
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTS. THERE MAY BE A SHARP LOW TEMPERATURE GRADIENT GIVEN THE
DIFF IN CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGHS SAT WITH PLENTY OF SUN SHLD REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TO THE N SAT NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING
MOISTURE AS LOW LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE. OVERALL ATMS IS DRY
TO START SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH RAIN TO DEVELOP SAT
NIGHT...MAINLY LATE NEAR THE COAST. APPROACHING SRT WAVE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING ISENT LIFT SHLD LEAD TO DECENT CVRG OF RAIN SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAN MORE TWRD NAM/ECMWF KEEPING
MAINLY NE FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH LOW PRES NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
CST LATER SUN INTO MON. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP RAIN THREAT GOING
LONGER THAN PREV FCST INDICATED SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SUN
NIGHT ALL AREAS AND CONT LIKELY INTO MON ESP OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE AREA. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S SUNDAY AND LOWER TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN TUE AND WED WITH
DRY WEATHER. STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
THANKSGIVING AND WILL INTRODUCE LOW CHC POPS FOR NOW.
AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS RTES TONIGHT. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE ACROSS ERN NC THIS EVENING BRINGING MVFR CIGS MOST
LOCATIONS TO IFR CIGS ACROSS SRN RTES. CIGS SLOWLY RISE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. VIS SATELLITE
SHOWING CLEARING TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS EVENING HOWEVER ERN
RTES WILL LIKELY HANG ONTO LOWER CIGS...MAINLY MVFR....THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING.
VFR SAT-SUN WITH HIGH PRES EXTENDING IN...THEN CONDITIONS
LOWERING SUN NIGHT-MON WITH LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AGAIN MON NIGHT-TUE WITH HIGH PRES AGAIN.
MARINE
NORTHERLY SURGE CONTINUING TO BRING WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KT
ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM N TO S LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 7
FT TO CONTINUE FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NWD AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS THE
SRN COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SAT AND SAT EVENING AND A PERIOD OF SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE SAT NIGHT EARLY SUN BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS.
LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES WITH NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM AFFECTING AREA
LATE SUN INTO MON AND DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FCST...KEEPING LOW TRACK OFFSHORE.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC/RF
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...SK
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