833
FXUS62 KMHX 161810
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
110 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EASES OFFSHORE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THEN MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 3 AM TUE...RETURN FLOW COMMENCES TODAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPS, BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. LOWS HAVE DROPPED INTO
THE TEENS TO 20S AND LEVELED OFF DUE TO LIGHT SWRLY BREEZES AND
INC MTN CIRRUS BUILDING IN. FOR TODAY, LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN
TEMPS AS HIGHS GET BACK INTO THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE, STILL BELOW
NORMAL BUT WILL FEEL QUITE A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO LAST FEW
DAYS. CIRRUS SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MO SUNNY SKIES.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM TUE...CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED, DESPITE VERY LIGHT SWRLY FLOW KEEPING
CONDITIONS ONLY SLIGHTLY MIXED. WENT WITH MOS/NBM25 BLEND AND
SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE 25-30 RANGE FOR MOST, WITH 30S TO NEAR 40
BEACHES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 3 AM TUE...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE
OFFSHORE AS GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES (HIGHS EXPECTED TO
WARM INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY).
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE THURSDAY (20-40%) AND PEAK THURSDAY
NIGHT (70-90%) AS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STRONGLY FORCED
FROPA OVERNIGHT. THUNDER CHC HAVE GONE DOWN AS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY IN PLACE, ESP WITH THE NOW MUCH COLDER NEARSHORE
SHELF/SOUND WATERS. A STORM MAY MIGRATE ONSHORE THE CTRL/SRN OBX
OFF THE GULF AND KEPT IN A 20% HERE FOR THAT SMALL THREAT. NO
SVR EXPECTED, BUT A BOUT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THU EVENING MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST BY WEEK'S END,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. ZONAL FLOW ENSUES BEHIND FROPA,
SO TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE ABOVE CLIMO BEHIND IT, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 55-65 RANGE AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO 40S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 110 PM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES
- VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD KEEPING SKY'S CLEAR AND THE AREA DRY.
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WED.
OUTLOOK: THE NEXT CHANCE AT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THURSDAY
INTO FRI WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. VFR CONDITIONS
THEN RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 3 AM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE GULF STREAM WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY FRIDAY AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES, WITH SCA REST
OF THE MARINE WATERS.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO LIGHT W-SW 5-15 KT
RETURNS THROUGH MID WEEK. GUSTS MAY AGAIN INCREASE TO NEAR/JUST
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS WEDNESDAY BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF AND NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED ATTM.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU WITH SRLY
GRADIENT INC TO 10-20 KT. THU NIGHT FLOW INC FURTHER AHEAD OF
STRONG FRONT APPROACHING, WITH SRLY WINDS OF 25-35 G 40 KT ON
THE GULF, THOUGH REMAINING 15-25 G 30 ELSEWHERE AS STOUT MARINE
INVERSION IN PLACE WITH RECENT ARCTIC OUTBREAK. SEAS BUILD TO
6-11 FT ON THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET DUE TO THE STRONG
SRLY FLOW THU NIGHT. WINDS TURN WRLY TO NWRLY ON FRIDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND MAY REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 15-25 G 30 KT
RANGE BEFORE DIMINISHING PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CQD/TL
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...TL
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