118  
FXUS62 KMHX 261959  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
359 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH  
TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN  
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND THEN STALL OFF THE COAST SUNDAY  
INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER  
AREA FROM NORTH WILL PRODUCE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR  
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND LOW TEMPERATURES 66-70 INLAND AND LOWER  
70S COAST. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY  
LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT  
WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. THIS  
WILL RESULT IN RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH  
WINDS BECOMING S-SW, DEW POINTS INCREASING TO LOWER 70S AND  
HIGHS NEAR 90 INLAND. 12Z GFS HAS SOME LIGHT QPF INDICATED FOR  
NW SECTIONS AFTER 5 PM BUT OTHER MODELS REMAIN DRY AND HAVE KEPT  
NO POP FORECAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFFSHORE  
THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY  
AND CROSS SATURDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE  
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFFSHORE AS A SIGNIFICANT  
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY  
WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO MOVE TOWARDS THE MID-  
ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FEW SHOWERS OR  
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF THE  
FORECAST AREA AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IMPROVE WITH A SHORTWAVE  
ENERGY CROSS THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S  
INLAND TO UPPER 70S COAST.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE/UPPER LEVEL LOW  
DROPS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE  
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHILE THE SURFACE LOW DEEPS  
FURTHER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND DRAGS IT'S  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC SATURDAY.  
 
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODELS AS THE GFS AND NAM  
SHOWS IMPULSE ENERGY MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND COLD  
FRONT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHILE THE EURO DOESN'T. MEANWHILE  
THERE WILL BE DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND INCREASE SHEAR (25-30  
KTS) WHILE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IS FAVORABLE... LEADING TO SUPPORT  
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SPC 3-DAY OUTLOOK  
CURRENTLY HAS OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  
THE MAIN THREAT ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO  
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.  
 
THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE CROSSING OF THE COLD  
FRONT ON SATURDAY, BUT ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA,  
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER, KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP ALONG THE  
COASTAL HALF OF THE CWA BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY WELL OFF THE COAST.  
 
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO  
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY WITH  
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S MOST AREAS EXCEPT LOWER 80S ACROSS THE OBX.  
LOWS EXPECTED IN THE 70S FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND  
AND LOW TO MID 70S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE A GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW AS THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT  
REMAINS OFFSHORE. KEPT 20-30% POP ALONG THE COASTAL HALF AS WEAK  
LOWS WILL MOVE ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
HIGH GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER  
60S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...  
AS OF 100 PM WED...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE  
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR FOG THURSDAY MORNING.  
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION  
WITH NE WINDS 5-10 KTS. TONIGHT, SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM AND DECOUPLE. STRONG RADIATIONAL  
COOLING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO  
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE VISIBILITIES AT  
5 SM IN THE VICINITY OF HWY 17 AND THEN TO THE WEST. THINKING  
THAT AREAS FURTHER INLAND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN HAVE THE BEST  
CHANCE OF SEEING LOWER VISIBILITIES THAN THIS, BUT GIVEN LONG  
LEAD TIME AND LOWER CONFIDENCE, WILL KEEP THESE AREAS AT 4 SM.  
FOG LIFTS QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.  
 
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...  
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH  
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON SATURDAY  
NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...  
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM  
NORTH WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE  
THURSDAY. NE WINDS 10-15 KT THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH BELOW 10  
KT OVERNIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE AROUND SUNRISE WITH HIGH  
CENTERED ALONG COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME SE-S IN AFTERNOON WITH  
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS 3-4 FEET  
WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FEET OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  
 
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...  
AS OF 345 TUESDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE  
NW FRIDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AROUND 10-15 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND  
15-20 KT FRIDAY AND UP TO 25 KNOTS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO  
BUILD TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY AND 4-7 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS  
DIFFER SOME ON THE STRENGTH SW FLOW BUT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE  
OF SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SOMETIME  
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE  
WATERS SATURDAY WITH A NW SURGE AROUND 10-20 KT DEVELOPING, THEN  
SHIFTING TO N SATURDAY NIGHT AND NE SUNDAY. SEAS EXPECTED AROUND 3-6  
FT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. NE  
WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS  
POSSIBLE SUBSIDING 3-5 FT.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JBM  
NEAR TERM...JBM  
SHORT TERM...JBM  
LONG TERM...BM  
AVIATION...SK/BM  
MARINE...JBM/BM  
 
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