388
FXUS62 KMHX 270010
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
810 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WHILE GRADUALLY SLIDING
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
AS OF 745 PM FRI...FORECAST ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG 1033MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NE US, RIDGING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
AS OF 220 PM FRI...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
SE US AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER PLEASANT, DRY SPRING
DAY WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS
TO LOW TO MID 70S INLAND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-THURSDAY
- THUNDERSTORM RISK MAY RETURN MID TO LATE-WEEK
FORECAST DETAILS
THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE IN THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL BE AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BENEATH THE RIDGE,
WARM/ABOVE NORMAL LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP.
THERE MAY BE SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND OVER THE WEEKEND,
BUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES,
WARM THICKNESSES, A REDUCED RISK OF PRECIPITATION, AND
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOCUSED IN THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORT
THIS, AND WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE, I'VE BUMPED TEMPS UP
TOWARDS THE 75TH PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE. INLAND, THIS SUGGESTS
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. ALONG THE COAST, THIS
SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. WITH PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW, DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO STEADILY INCREASE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL, WHICH MAY ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO REACH
THE 90S. WHILE NOT HEADLINE-WORTHY, IT'S STILL NOTEWORTHY AS
THIS WOULD INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAT EXHAUSTION FOR THOSE WITH
PROLONGED EXPOSURE.
FROM MID TO LATE-WEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIFFER, BUT THE
GENERAL THEME IS FOR THE RIDGE TO BREAKDOWN. WHILE NOT
IMMEDIATE, THE LACK OF RIDGING COULD EVENTUALLY OPEN THE DOOR TO
AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF CONVECTION, IF FOR NO OTHER REASON
THAN THE DAILY SEABREEZE. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO
PASS OVER, OR NEAR, THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK, WHICH WOULD
ALSO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF CONVECTION. OF NOTE,
CIPS AND CSU SEVERE WEATHER GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING A MODEST SIGNAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE-WEEK, ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SHOW LESS OF A SIGNAL. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES, IT'S
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK. FORECAST-WISE,
WE'LL SHOW A LOW-END RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
(10-30% CHANCE). WHILE STILL WARM, TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK
SHOULD LOWER SOME COMPARED TO EARLY IN THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND MORE CLOUDINESS AROUND
AT TIMES.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME HIGHER BASED 5-10K BASED CLOUDS WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. SIGNALS CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW FOR ANY
FOG AND/OR STRATUS THREAT OVERNIGHT. HREF PROBS ARE HIGHEST
OVER SOUTHERN LENOIR AND DUPLIN COUNTIES, THOUGH ONLY IN THE
10-20% RANGE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN
CARRIES A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS
4-6 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND 3-5 FT SOUTH. GUSTS HAVE DROPPED
BELOW 25 KT AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SO HAVE
ALLOWED THE SCA TO EXPIRE SOUTH OF OCRACOKE AND THE PAMLICO
SOUND. SCAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS WILL GRAD VEER AND
SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT OVERNIGHT. THOUGH ELEVATED SEAS WILL
LINGER NORTH OF OCRACOKE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED
ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY. E WINDS 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT
EARLY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRAD DIMINISH TO 3-6 FT,
POTENTIALLY LINGERING AT 6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE-WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK
FORECAST DETAILS
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH INLAND TROUGHING DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND, THEN
WILL STEADILY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF 10-20KT COMMON. SEAS OF 3-5 FT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, SETTING UP GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
THE ONE EXCEPTION IS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERLY BACKGROUND SWELL THAT HAS BEEN
IMPACTING THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/SK
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...DAG/RM
AVIATION...RM/CQD/SK
MARINE...RM/CQD/SK
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