797  
FXUS62 KMHX 230053  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
753 PM EST MON JAN 22 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE  
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE  
WEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND PASS OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...UPDATED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL  
ZONES REST OF THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ALONG COAST  
FROM AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED BUT ANOTHER SMALL SCATTERED LINE  
SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AND MESO MODELS SUPPORT  
WIDELY SCATTERED THREAT INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. REST OF FORECAST  
ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND MILD TEMPS.  
 
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/  
 
AS OF 210 PM MON...INCREASING S WINDS TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES FROM THE W. RADAR SHOWS BATCH OF SHRA TO THE SW THAT  
WILL IMPACT SRN CST NEXT FEW HRS IF HOLD TOGETHER. OVERNIGHT  
MOISTURE WILL GRAD INCREASE WITH CHC OF SHRA DEVELOPING LATE  
ESPCLY WELL INLAND. COMBO OF SRLY FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO  
VERY MILD LOWS IN THE 50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 210 PM MON...A ROBUST FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION  
IN THE MORNING AND IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING  
THE AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SCENARIO  
WITH MODELS INDICATING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR UP TO AROUND 70KT BUT  
VERY LITTLE CAPE PER THE GFS/ECMWF WHILE THE NAM HAS A LITTLE  
HIGHER CAPE VALUES TO AROUND 500 J/KG. CANNOT RULE OUT AN  
ISOLATED STORM BRINGING STRONG WIND GUSTS BUT WITH BETTER  
FORCING FOR ASCENT DISPLACED TO THE NORTH WITH MOIST PROFILES  
EXPECT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.  
MODELS ARE NOT BRINGING MUCH QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIP  
AMOUNT AROUND A QUARTER INCH. RAPID DRYING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
FROM W TO E IN THE AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDES  
OFFSHORE. CONTINUED VERY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND  
BUT COOLER WATER TEMPS WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S  
ALONG THE COAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL BRING DRY  
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER  
THREAT FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY..BROAD UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES  
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SFC  
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
AND COULD SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION BUT THE  
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY WITH PW VALUES ONLY AROUND A THIRD OF  
AN INCH AND DON'T EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION. WILL SEE HEIGHT  
RISES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE  
BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND BEGINS TO PUSH OFFSHORE  
FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID  
50S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S. COASTAL SECTIONS WILL BE  
COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AND LOWS IN THE  
MID TO UPPER 30S.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE  
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD SATURDAY AS A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH  
AND SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. COULD SEE  
A FEW WAA SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AS INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW  
BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION BUT MODELS  
DEPICTING BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY  
EVENING. AT THIS TIME, MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER HIGH SHEAR  
ENVIRONMENT BUT EVEN LESS INSTABILITY THAN TUESDAY'S EVENT WITH  
LI'S REMAINING POSITIVE. SOUTHERLY FLOW BRING WARMER TEMPS WITH  
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S INLAND TO MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ALONG  
THE COAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WED/...  
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH  
EVENING HOURS WITH ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER THREAT. INCREASING  
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO  
RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED FORECAST BASED ON  
LATEST GUIDANCE TO INDICATE LOW END OF MVFR WITH SOME POTENTIAL  
FOR PERIOD OF IFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN COVERAGE OF MAINLY LIGHT  
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN FROM WEST 10Z-13Z AND PROGRESS  
ACROSS AREA THROUGH 18Z-21Z. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVING TO VFR  
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
 
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN INCREASING 10-15  
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTER 13Z.  
 
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...  
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...PRED-VFR EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER  
HALF OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...  
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALL WATERS  
REST OF EVENING BUT NO CHANGES TO WINDS/SEAS.  
 
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/  
 
AS OF 210 PM MON...SRLY WINDS WILL GRAD RAMP UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF  
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO REACH 15 TO 20 KTS  
BY 06Z AND 20 TO 25 KTS BY MORNING. THE SSW WINDS WILL PEAK TUE  
JUST AHEAD OF FRONT WITH WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS AND FREQUENT GUSTS  
AOA 35 KTS EXPECTED CENTRAL WTRS ESPCLY BEYOND 10 MILES WHERE  
ENHANCED MIXING EXPECTED NEAR WARMER SST. THE INCREASING WINDS  
WILL LEAD TO SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET BY EARLY TUE MORNING  
AND PEAKING AT 9 TO 11 FEET CENTRAL WTRS IN THE AFTN. HAVE  
UPGRADED THE WATERS BETWEEN OREGON INLET AND CAPE LOOKOUT TO  
GALE WARNING FOR TUE WHERE HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED. ALSO ADDED  
ALBEMARLE SOUND/ALLIGATOR RIVER AND THE INLAND RIVERS TO THE SCA  
TUE WHERE EXPECT AT LEAST SOME GUSTS AOA 25 KTS.  
 
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...  
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE  
TUESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING W/NW AROUND 10-20 KT TUESDAY NIGHT  
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT WEDNESDAY  
MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH 5-15 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT A MID  
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SFC TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL SERVE TO INCREASE WIND BACK TO 10-20  
KT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING N AROUND 5-15 KT  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NLY WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT FRIDAY GRADUALLY  
VEER TO EASTERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-  
131-136-137.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.  
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY  
NIGHT FOR AMZ150.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY  
FOR AMZ158.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RF  
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM  
SHORT TERM...RF  
LONG TERM...SK  
AVIATION...JBM/SK/BM  
MARINE...RF/JBM/SK  
 
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