304
FXUS62 KMHX 180106
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
806 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
AS OF 145 PM WED...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SE US. THE HIGH WILL CONT TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MID-WEST...WHILE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS CONT TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. CONT WARMING TREND AS
TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW
MORNINGS, WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE 30S INLAND, WITH 40S ON THE
BEACHES. LOW PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY INLAND FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES COMBINED WITH CALM
WINDS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 145 PM WED...CONT GOOD SHIFT TO SHIFT CONTINUITY ON
RAIN MOVING INTO ENC RAPIDLY FROM W TO E THU EVENING. CONT TO
FCST SOME CHC POPS THU AFTERNOON AS A COUPLE SHOWERS MAY MOVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. OVERNIGHT CATEGORICAL POPS OF 90-100% ON TRACK WITH
MODERATE TO OCC HEAVY RAIN ALBEIT BRIEF IN NATURE, AS BULK OF
RAIN SWEEPS OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE FRI. THUNDER PROBABILITIES CONT
ONLY 10-20% FOR THE BULK OF ENC, BUT A LOCALIZED HIGHER CHANCE
EXISTS FOR AREAS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO HATTERAS, AS VCNTY OF GULF
STREAM ON STRONG SRLY FLOW MAY ADVECT SOME OFFSHORE INSTABILITY
ONTO THE OBX. REST OF THE FA WILL BE PROTECTED BY VERY CHILLY
WATERS ON THE SOUNDS AND NEARSHORE SHELF WATERS OFF THE CRYSTAL
COAST. GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND 1" OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS,
WITH HIGHEST QPF ON THE OBX/DOWNEAST WHERE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS MAY SNEAK ONSHORE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 145 PM WED...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST BY EARLY FRI, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. ZONAL FLOW ENSUES BEHIND FROPA, SO
TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE ABOVE CLIMO BEHIND IT, WITH HIGHS IN THE
55-65 RANGE AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO 40S.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING
- INCREASING CLOUD COVER & LOWERING CIGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH APPROACHING FRONT
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS
WORKING FOR AND ALSO AGAINST FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN STEADILY RISING THIS AFTERNOON AS S TO SW FLOW IS
ADVECTING GREATER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, HOWEVER LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE WELL ABOVE CROSSOVER TEMPS, WHICH TYPICALLY IS A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING, HOWEVER SATURATED SFC CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SEVERAL
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE DEVELOPING FOG, THOUGH
PROBABILISTICALLY CHANCES ARE LOW TO MODERATE; LAMP
PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND 30-50% CHANCE FOR MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT WHILE HREF PROBS ARE AROUND 20-30%
NORTH OF THE TAR/PAMLICO RIVER AND 10-20% TO THE SOUTH. I DID
REINTRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST LIMITING VSBYS TO MVFR AT
THIS TIME GIVING THE UNCERTAINTY. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 13Z.
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, WHICH
WILL BE LOWERING LATE AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME
S TO SE AROUND 5-10 KT AND COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR SUB-
VFR FLIGHT CATS WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT. LLWS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT EXPECT
CLEARING FROM W TO E WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE FRIDAY
AND REMAIN PRED-VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS.
MARINE
AS OF 7 PM WED...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE GULF STREAM WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY FRIDAY AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES, WITH SCA
REST OF THE MARINE WATERS. GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO SURF CITY.
THROUGH TONIGHT...LATEST OBS SHOW PRIMARILY SW-W WINDS 5-15 KT
WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM THIS
AFTERNOON BUT HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE AS GRADIENTS LOOSEN AND
HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT EXPIRE AT
6 PM. MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL GUST NEAR 25 KT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU WITH SRLY
GRADIENT INC TO 10-20 KT. THU NIGHT FLOW INC FURTHER AHEAD OF
STRONG FRONT APPROACHING, WITH SRLY WINDS OF 25-35 GUSTING 35-40
KT ALONG THE GULF STREAM, THOUGH REMAINING 15-25 KT WITH OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS ELSEWHERE AS SHALLOW BUT STOUT MARINE INVERSION IN
PLACE WITH RECENT ARCTIC OUTBREAK. WITH THE GALES DEVELOPING
THU NIGHT, SEAS QUICKLY BUILD TO 6-12+ FT AND PEAK DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS. WINDS TURN WRLY TO NWRLY ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND MAY REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 15-25 G 30 KT RANGE
BEFORE DIMINISHING PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND. UPGRADED TO GALE
WARNINGS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS, AND SCAS FOR THE
SOUNDS AND NORTHERN WATERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE
IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD ON SAT LEADING
TO LIGHT/VRB WINDS. THE HIGH PASSES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
WITH RETURN SWRLY FLOW INC ON SUNDAY INTO THE 15-20 KT OFFSHORE
WATERS, 5-15 KT NEARSHORE AND THE SOUNDS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-
154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CQD/TL
AVIATION...SK/OJC
MARINE...CQD/SK
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