655  
FXUS62 KMHX 231226  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
726 AM EST THU NOV 23 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW  
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO EARLY  
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A DRY COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND WILL  
EXTEND OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
AS OF 715 AM THURSDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.  
MID LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH SFC  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. A COOL DRY  
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WILL SEE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS,  
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA PUSHING ACROSS THE FL  
PENINSULA, LIFT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING FILTERED SUNSHINE.  
HIGH EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 715 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE  
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE  
AREA MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE  
INTO THE SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS BUT MOST LAND AREAS  
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS PREVAILING. THE  
EXCEPTION MAY BE DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF  
INDICTING A FEW SHOWERS MAY PUSH ASHORE HERE, HOWEVER THE HIGH  
RES MODELS KEEP THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE AND LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT  
CHANCE. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE LOW/MID 30S INLAND TO UPPER  
30S/LOWER 40S COAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 2 AM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WL BUILD IN FROM THE NW FRI.  
MODELS CONT TREND OF KEEPING BETTER MOISTURE OFFSHORE SO ONLY  
HAVE SMALL POP OVER WATERS. HIGHS FRI IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 AND  
LOWS FRI NIGHT UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S INLAND AND MID 40S TO AROUND  
50 BEACHES.  
 
WEAK LOW WILL LIFT NE OFFSHORE OF THE COAST SAT AS A COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES FROM THE W. AGAIN BULK OF MODELS MAINLY DRY WITH  
JUST SMALL CHC OF SHRA OVER CENTRAL AND SRN COASTAL WATERS.  
TEMPS WILL MODERATE A BIT SAT WITH HIGHS MAINLY 60 TO 65. THE  
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SAT NIGHT...LOOKS DRY WITH VERY LITTLE  
MOISTURE ASSOC WITH FROPA. BEST CAA HOLDS OFF TIL SUN WITH LOWS  
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 INLAND TO AROUND 50 BEACHES.  
 
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W SUN AND MON THEN MOVE OFFSHORE  
TUE AND WED WITH DRY WEATHER. WL BE COOL EARLY WITH STRONG  
WARMING BY MIDWEEK. HIGHS SUN AND MON WILL BE IN THE 50S. LOWS  
WILL BE CHILLY SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHT LOWER/MID 30S INLAND AND  
MOSTLY 40S BEACHES. AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE TUE AND WED WAA  
WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGHS TUE IN THE THE LOW/MID 60S...WARMING TO  
MID/UPR 60S WED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 7 AM THURSDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
SHORT TERM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP DRY  
CONDITIONS IN LOWER LEVELS BUT A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE  
APPROACHING WILL BRING SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS RTES. N/NE  
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS. GUIDANCE KEEPS VFR  
CONDITIONS TONIGHT BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND COLD TEMPS CANNOT  
RULE OUT PATCHY STEAM FOG ALONG THE RIVERS, PRIMARILY AFFECTING  
PGV AND POSSIBLY EWN.  
 
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...  
AS OF 2 AM THU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH  
PRES WITH LIMITED CLOUDS FRI. WEAK LOW MOVING NE OFFSHORE AND  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SAT WILL LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS BUT NOT  
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP AT TAF SITES. DRY COLD FRONT WILL  
CROSS SAT NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN SUN AND MON LEADING  
TO MCLR SKIES.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 7 AM THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE PEAKED AND ARE  
BEGINNING TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW WITH N/NE WITH AROUND 10-20 KT WITH  
SEAS AROUND 5-7 FT ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS GENERALLY 15  
KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN COULD  
SEE SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO 10-20 KT AS GRADIENTS TIGHTEN  
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST,  
STRONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY  
SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AND EXPECT TO DROP BELOW 6 FT NORTHERN AND  
SOUTHERN WATERS BY NOON AND THE CENTRAL WATERS BY LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON. SEAS EXPECTED AROUND 3-5 FT TONIGHT.  
 
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...  
AS OF 2 AM THU...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W FRI WITH NE  
WINDS AROUND 15 KTS AND 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS. WEAK LOW PRES WILL  
LIFT NE OFFSHORE EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM  
THE W LATE. N TO NW WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS EARLY SAT WILL BECOME MORE  
W LATER IN THE DAY WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. THE COLD FRONT WILL  
CROSS SAT NIGHT WITH NNW WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS SUN  
AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET...HIGHEST OUTER CENTRAL NRN  
WATERS. AS THE HIGH BUILDS CLOSER MON N WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO  
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET IN  
THE AFTN.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-  
154.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ156-158.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...SK  
NEAR TERM...SK  
SHORT TERM...SK  
LONG TERM...RF  
AVIATION...RF/SK  
MARINE...RF/SK  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NC Page Main Text Page