521
FXUS62 KMHX 091503
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1003 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE GULF. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. THE LOW
WILL LIFT NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THROUGH LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 955 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYERED
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WAS SPREADING
RAPIDLY EAST. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY 18Z. RAIN IS STILL
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL
INITIALLY BE INHIBITED BY DRY AIR BELOW 900 MB. THINKING IS
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OCCUR FAR WEST AROUND 19Z AND FAR EAST
AROUND 22Z. TOUGH CALL ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AS HAVING DOUBTS THAT
HIGHS WILL REACH OR EXCEED 50 DEGREES. WILL KEEP LARGE RANGE IN
WITH LOWER 40S WEST AND AROUND 50 COAST BUT MAY NEED TO TWEAK
COAST DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 3 AM TUE...THE DEEPER NAM/GEM SHOW POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
NEAR HSE LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WITH POORER MODEL INITIALIZATION
AND PREFERRED S TRACK HAVE KEPT MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF THE FCST.
COLD NEARSHORE WATER TEMPS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY GULF STREAM
CONVECTION FROM REACHING THE COAST AS IT IS. THE T/TD WILL LIKELY
WARM OVERNIGHT NEAR THE COAST...BUT REMAIN NEARLY STEADY INLAND.
THE LOW WILL BE STRONGLY NEG TILTED OVERNIGHT...WITH RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS EXP OFF DELMARVA INTO EARLY WED. THE STRONG PRES GRAD
AND MIXING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GREATLY INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. AFT 06Z THE DRIER AIR IN THE MID LVLS WILL ERODE MOST OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
WED. THE DRIER AIR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONG
MIXING ON WED...AND AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE WILL
SEE LOW LVL JET AROUND 55KT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DO NOT HAVE
WIND GUSTS THIS HIGH AS TEMPS EXP TO BE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE AS
STRONG CAA AND LOW TD FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CREATE
DANGEROUS FIRE WX CONDITIONS WITH RH VALUES AROUND 30% INLAND.
WIND ADV CONDITIONS LIKELY INLAND...AND HIGH WIND CRITERIA ALONG
OBX POSSIBLE.
THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL VORT WED AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
SOME STCU DEVELOPING. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING MARINE
LLV MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND EXITING LOW LATE WED...BUT FEEL IT IS
OVERDONE AS PLUMMETING TDS LIKELY TO DROP RH TOO LOW FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP. THIS IF FORTUNATE SINCE TEMPS WILL EASILY BE
BELOW FREEZING...SO ANY PRECIP WOULD BE FZ DZ POSSIBLE IN FAR N
SECTIONS WITH NO ACCUMULATION.
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS COLDEST GUIDANCE...WHICH IS SHOWING WIND
CHILLS VALUES WED NT INTO THE TEENS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 3 AM TUE...NW FLOW ALOFT AND COLD THERMAL PROFILES OVER THE
SE WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH LATE WEEK DESPITE
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. A FEW DAYS OF DRIER WX IS WELCOME AS
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM TODAY
WILL COMPOUND THE PROBLEM. THE TAR/NEUSE PROJECTIONS SUGGESTS A
POTENTIAL FOR MOD FLOODING LATE WEEK.
ALL EYES THEN ONCE AGAIN TURN TO A S STREAM LOW TRACKING ACROSS
THE GULF. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE S ROUTE THAN
THE LAST COUPLE OF LOWS...THIS ONE BEING WELL TO OUR S...KEEPING
PRECIP THREAT OUT OF THE AREA. IF THE LOW WERE TO TRACK SLIGHTLY
FURTHER N (LIKE HPC SUGGESTS WITH A SLOWER/MORE N ROUTE)...THEN WE
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LATE FRI NT/SAT. AT THIS POINT
IMPACTS LOOK MINOR COMPARED TO LAST SEVERAL ROUNDS OF COASTAL
LOWS...BUT A MORE N TRACK COULD LEAD TO WINTER CONCERNS.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 10 AM TUE...A LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE GOM WILL LIFT TOWARD
THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING BRINGING LOWERING CIGS. MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SPREADING
ACROSS RTES. GENERALLY LIGHT ELY FLOW AOB 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
15 KT TODAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS THIS
EVENING THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND WED.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR STRATOCU PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY WED. VERY STRONG WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
EARLY WED AND CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 30-40 KNOTS
JUST OFF THE GROUND WITH LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50+ KNOTS. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY PULLS
WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 10 AM TUE...LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM LAND/BUOY SITES
INDICATE MARINE FORECAST IN VERY GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES NEEDED
THIS MORNING.
PREV DISC...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT N/NELY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS BELOW 10 KT
AND SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT. LOW PRES IN THE GOM WILL TRANSITION TO THE
SC/GA COAST THIS AFTERNOON..THEN LIFT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. ELY FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE REGION AND TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WATERS THIS EVENING. WAVE MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT FOR TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING WITH WAVEWATCH INITIALIZING TO LOW AND SWAN
APPEARS TO BUILD ANOMALOUSLY HIGH SEAS THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO PREVIOUS WAVE GRIDS WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS
BUILDING ACROSS THE SRN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
THE HIGHEST FOR SEAS TODAY.
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRES MOVES
E OF THE NRN OBX AND RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W. THE RESULTING TIGHT
PRES GRADIENTS COMBINED WITH A STRONG LLJ TO AROUND 55 KT AND
DEEP MIXING ASSOC WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BRING GALE FORCE WLY WINDS AROUND 30-40 KT ACROSS ALL
WATERS WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ESP WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HAVE ISSUED A STORM
WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD. ACROSS LAND AREAS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH ACROSS OBX DARE AND HYDE AS GUSTS UP TO 50 KT POSSIBLE. IT
WILL BE TOUGH FOR AREAS INLAND TO REACH WIND WARNING CRITERIA BUT
ANTICIPATE A WIND ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED REMAINING COUNTIES WITH THIS
AFTERNOON'S PACKAGE. WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS THIS WIND EVENT
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A HIGH IMPACT EVENT WITH NUMEROUS TREES DOWN
LEADING TO POWER OUTAGES AND OTHER ASSOC DAMAGE. IN ADDITION THE
STRONG WLY WINDS WILL PUSH THE WATER IN THE SOUNDS TO THE OBX AND
EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SOUNDSIDE FLOODING EVENT FROM WED AFTERNOON
INTO THU. ADCIRC SHOWING WATER LEVELS FROM KITTY HAWK SOUTH TO
HATTERAS VILLAGE REACHING AROUND 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL AND OCRACOKE
AROUND 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL. WITH ALREADY HIGH WATER LEVELS IN THE
SOUNDS FROM SIGNIFICANT RIVER DRAINAGE INTO THE SOUND EXPECT WATER
LEVEL RISES AROUND 3 TO 4 FT...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER...ACROSS
SOUNDSIDE LOCATIONS PRONE TO FLOODING.
WINDS SLOWLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING AS
THE LOW PRES AREA PULLS E OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND GRADIENTS
BEGIN TO RELAX. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY WILL
BRING NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT TROUGH FRI. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF FRIDAY WILL MOVE E/NE...PASSING WELL TO
THE SOUTH AND E SATURDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR NCZ103-104.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ130-135-
150-152-154-156-158.
SYNOPSIS...SJ
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...SJ
LONG TERM...SJ
AVIATION...HSA/SK
MARINE...HSA/SK
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