150  
FXUS62 KMHX 221703  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
103 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA  
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH  
THROUGH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
AS OF 1015 AM SUN...EDGED MAX T'S UP A DEGREE OR TWO, AS LATEST  
OBS AND FCST LO LVL THICKNESSES SUGGEST MANY INTERIOR AREAS  
REACHING OR SURPASSING THE 70 DEGREE MARK TODAY. COOLER UPPER  
50S EXPECTED FOR THE NRN OBX WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. NO OTHER  
CHANGES.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AS OF 630 AM SUN...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS  
SHOWS 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION  
INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC AND EASTERN NC. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS  
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST, AHEAD OF  
THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE MID-WEST AND STRENGTHENING SFC  
LOW IN THE GULF STATES. EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY, WITH  
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THOUGH COULD SEE SOME HIGHER BASED CU DEVELOP  
WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES,  
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, AND ONSHORE FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS, AND MID 60S TO LOW 70S  
INLAND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 2 AM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST  
TONIGHT, AS SURFACE AND UPPER LOW APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, THOUGH EXPECT ANY  
PRECIP CHANCES TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. NOT AS COOL  
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW. LOWS IN THE  
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 345 AM SUN... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE MID-  
ATLANTIC, INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA, WHILE A LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE GULF STATES  
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A THOUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND  
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUES  
FOR THIS PERIOD AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS/MS VALLEY THROUGH MID-WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER MONDAY, DELAYING MOST OF THE  
RAIN UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC LOW  
LIFTS TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE  
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE AND BECOME  
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILTED AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITH ANOTHER  
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN  
WITH AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW  
SIGNIFICANT 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE ATLANTIC TOWARDS  
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS CAN RESULT IN MINOR  
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. THE MODELS ARE NOW CONSISTENT WITH  
WITH TRACK OF THE LOW MOVING FARTHER INLAND, THIS WILL RESULT IN  
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE  
BACKING, NEGATIVE-TILTED TROUGH ALOFT, AND MODEST INSTABILITY  
NOW PRESENT; WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OVERALL, EXPECT MODERATE  
TO HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER ON  
TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOW/MID  
60S ALONG THE BEACHES.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND  
TAPER OFF AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NE AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. MOST  
PLACES WILL HAVE A BREAK FROM RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE OTHER  
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IT'S ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES THE AREA WITH RAIN REDEVELOPING AGAIN THURSDAY. THEN  
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND PUSH THROUGH  
SATURDAY WITH MORE RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S INLAND AND  
60S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...  
AS OF 100 PM SUN...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS  
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING AND  
LOWERING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE  
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE CENTER. NOT OUT  
OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP LATE  
TONIGHT AND EARLY MON AS THE FLOW BECOMES SE BUT A MUCH STRONGER  
SIGNAL FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS IS INDICATED AFTER 18Z (2 PM) MON  
AS RAIN BEGINS TO ADVANCE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW.  
 
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...  
AS OF 100 PM SUN...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MON NIGHT AND TUE AS  
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS PRODUCING  
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO  
MOSTLY VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THE THREAT OF ISOLATED  
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY WITH A POSSIBILITY  
OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 630 AM SUN...LATEST OBS SHOW NE TO SE WINDS 5-15 KT WITH  
SEAS 2-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE  
WATERS TODAY, MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. ENE WINDS 10-15 KT TODAY WITH  
SEAS 2-3 FT. EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10-20 KT TONIGHT WITH  
SEAS BUILDING TO 2-4 FT.  
 
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...  
AS OF 630 AM SUN...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN  
WATERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN MONDAY  
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE GULF  
STATES, EXPECT E WINDS 15-25 KNOTS, THEN INCREASING TO 20-30  
KNOTS TUESDAY WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS. AS THE LOW LIFTS NE, WINDS  
WILL BECOME SW 10-15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS  
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY, RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING  
NW 5-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD 5-7 FT THROUGHOUT MONDAY, AND  
CONTINUE TO BUILD AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES THE AREA, EXPECT  
SEAS TO REACH AS HIGH 10-15 FT TUESDAY. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY  
START TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS BECOMING 5-8 FT  
WEDNESDAY AND THEN AROUND 5 FT THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
AS OF 635 AM SUN...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION  
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP,  
RESULTING IN MANY COASTAL IMPACTS ACROSS EASTERN NC. MINOR  
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY  
NIGHT, FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND AND RIVERS, AS  
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, BEACH  
EROSION, AND OVERWASH WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ROUGH SURF,  
DANGEROUS SHORE BREAK, AND AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK ARE  
EXPECTED ALONG THE BEACHES.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR  
AMZ156-158.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...CQD/SGK  
NEAR TERM...CQD/TL  
SHORT TERM...CQD  
LONG TERM...BM  
AVIATION...JME/BM  
MARINE...CQD/BM  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX  
 
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