266
FXUS62 KMHX 041338
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
938 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THEN PUSH
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION
SUNDAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT THEN
STALLS SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK LOWS MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 930 AM SAT...SFC HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN FROM THE W BRINING
WITH IT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. PW VALUES FROM THE MORNING SOUNDING
HAVE PLUMMETED TO UNDER 1"...VERY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALL OF
THIS IS ADDING TO A COMFORTABLE APPARENT TEMPS AS RH VALUES DROP TO
30-40% ACROSS THE REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE M/U80S. SUNNY
SKIES TO START TODAY WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PREVENTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER WILL LIKELY SEE SCT CU THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW THE INVERSION...ESPECIALLY IN
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SEABREEZE. AN AREA OF LOW PRES ACROSS THE MID
MS RIVER VALLEY WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
AND WILL BEGIN TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE TONIGHT BUT LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONG SRN COASTAL SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SLY FLOW
BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SLY FLOW WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND MIN TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE U60S INLAND TO M70S COAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 4 AM SAT...LOW PRES PUSHES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
THEN ACROSS ERN NC SUN NIGHT. SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE SUN
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE...HOWEVER
MODELS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND WILL DEPEND ON THE
DEGREE OF SFC HEATING. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING
MOISTURE...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY QUICKLY INCREASE AND MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BECOMES LIKELY. PW'S INCREASE TO
2-2.5" SUN NIGHT AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...SPC HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR STORMS SUN WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
AND AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE SUN NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING S ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS DEEPEST MOISTURE PUSHES S OF
THE REGION AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS MOVES IN FROM THE N. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE NEAR TERM.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 4 AM SAT...THE FRONT WILL STALL S OF THE REGION TUE AND
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE S WITH AREAS OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK
EWD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED HOWEVER ISOLATED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPS BEGIN NEAR SEASONABLE MID WEEK BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD
INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 2 AM SATURDAY...VFR WILL CONT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS ATMOS
REMAINS RATHER DRY WITH NO FORCING...EXPECT MOSTLY CLR SKIES.
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW...EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SUN AFTN. BEST CVRG ON
SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOC REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS LOOKS TO BE SUN NIGHT AS WAVE
OF LOW PRES MOVES ALONG FRONT NEAR OR JUST TO THE N. SHRA/TSRA WILL
END FROM N TO S MON AS DRIER AIR SPREADS S IN WAKE OF FRONT. MAINLY
VFR TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
MARINE
VERY NICE BOATING TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WEAK GRDNT KEEPING WINDS
BELOW 15 KTS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. MAINLY N/NW WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS TROF MOVES OFFSHORE. LATER TODAY WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW
AS TRF REDEVELOPS WELL INLAND. S/SW WINDS WILL CONT INTO SUN WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING SUN AFTN AS GRDNT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF FRONT. LOOKS
LIKE SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER AT LEAST CNTRL AND SOUTHERN
WATERS SUN NIGHT AS WAVE MOVING ALONG FRONT TIGHTENS GRDNT. SW
WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS S OF OREGON INLET WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET SUN NIGHT. AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE
MON WINDS WILL BECOMING N/NE AND DIMINISH WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3
TO 5 FEET. WINDS MAINLY BELOW 15 KTS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET TUE AND
WED AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS TO THE N.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SJ/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF
MARINE...BTC/RF
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