441
FXUS62 KMHX 041528
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1125 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
TODAY THEN DISSIPATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
MINOR UPDATE FOR SKY COVER AND TEMPS. LOW LVLS A BIT MORE MOIST THIS
MORNING PER 12Z SOUNDING LEADING TO MORE CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA
BREEZE. STRONG INVERSION AROUND 650 MB SHOULD PRECLUDE DEEP
CONVECTION AND KEPT NO POP FCST. TEMPS ON TRACK FOR HIGHS MID 90S
INLAND TO UPR 80S BEACHES BUT ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS FOR LATEST OBS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEEPEN THIS WEEKEND ACCORDING TO FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH 500 MB TROF SHARPENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL
BE COASTAL PLAINS TROF AND SEABREEZE. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WESTERN ATLANTIC SFC RIDGE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SE
STATES WITH MODELS INDICATING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FURTHER NORTH
OVER NC EXTENDING NORTH INTO VA WITH BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD KEEP A
THREAT FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HIGHS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 80S NEAR THE
BEACHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOW TO MID 70S AREAWIDE.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
SW WINDS AOB 10 KT. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY
MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE SFC WINDS WILL
LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 15 KT UNTIL 22Z OR SO. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TS POP UP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL KEEP TERMINALS DRY AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY
LOW.
INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL PRODUCE
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
NO CHANGES PLANNED THIS UPDATE AS INHERITED MARINE GRIDS IN GOOD
SHAPE FOR THE REST OF TODAY. CURRENTLY SEEING SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT
OVER AREA WATERS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SHARPENING SFC
TROUGH WELL INLAND. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST THE PERIOD. A WEAK
FRONT STALLED NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SW FLOW
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SW WILL BE ENHANCED AT TIMES
BY THE LEE SIDE TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND THE DYING FRONT LATE TODAY. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BACK
FROM SW EARLY TO S LATE IN THE DAYS AS SEA BREEZE/LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS PREDOMINATE. WILL FORECAST A PERIOD OF 15-20 KT WINDS
LATE TODAY AND SUNDAY-TUESDAY BASED ON GRADIENT FORECASTS IN THE
MODELS WHICH ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. SEAS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
3-5 FT RANGE.
BY MID NEXT WEEK 2-3 FT SWELL FROM A COMBINATION OF STRONG STORMS
OFF SOUTH AMERICA AND TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WELL OFF IN THE ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NC COAST.
RIP CURRENTS...PER OBS...FORECAST PARAMETERS AND LOCAL BEACH PATROL
INPUT...WILL CONTINUE LOW THREAT ALL BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...HSA/JW
AVIATION...JW
MARINE...HW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page