911  
FXUS62 KMHX 261954  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
354 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY  
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA  
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND  
RETURN NORTH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CUMULUS, SKIES WILL  
BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. LOWS  
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE  
COAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE BULK OF SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY  
AND DRY UNTIL MID-LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE  
DAY. SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN APPROACHING  
BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTH, NEAR THE VA BORDER, BUT THINK THESE  
WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR CWA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE  
QUITE WARM IN SW FLOW WITH THICKNESS AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTING  
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND LOW/MID 80S BEACHES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE  
PERIOD DUE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE  
TIMING OF PRECIP AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL BE  
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL STALL  
SOUTH OF AREA WEDNESDAY BUT THEN LIFT BACK NORTH THURSDAY,  
MEANWHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA  
FRIDAY...LEADING TO MORE RAIN.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD  
FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS VA. THIS WEAK LOW WILL BE NEAR THE  
VA/NC BORDER WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND  
STALLS SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS  
E NC SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED COVERAGE  
IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. SPC  
CONTINUES WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THE  
0-6 KM SHEAR IS INDICATE 35-40 KTS WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE FOR A  
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. EXPECT HIGH IS THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND  
90 DEGREES INLAND WITH LOW/MID 80S ALONG THE BEACHES.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY  
WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTH OF AREA  
SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH LATE  
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSING  
LATE TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING  
TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH  
CONTINUING SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY, THUS WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS  
THROUGH THE NIGHT DURING PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING 35-40 KT  
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SUNDAY AND EVEN STRONGER ON MONDAY. ISOLATED  
SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE REST OF PERIOD AS WELL. HIGHS WILL BE IN  
THE UPPER 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGHS  
REACHING NEAR 90 INLAND. TUESDAY, TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREE  
COOLER AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. LOWS AROUND 70 SUNDAY NIGHT  
AND MONDAY NIGHT, THEN 65-70 TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD  
ACROSS THE AREA, MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED  
OFFSHORE. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE RAIN-FREE, BUT MODELS ARE  
INDICATING SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE WEAK  
RIDGE...MAINLY OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID  
80S INLAND AND UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A  
WARM FRONT AND INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR MORE SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL  
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW WITH MORE RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY.  
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S THURSDAY  
AND FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/  
AS OF 105 PM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH  
THIS TAF CYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROLS AND SUNNY SKIES  
TODAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW PATCHY CUMULUS IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY.  
THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD AND LIGHT MIXING SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG  
FORMATION TONIGHT. GUSTY W/WNW WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER THIS  
EVENING.  
 
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING  
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTS  
THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/  
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...AS THE INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING  
OFF NEW ENGLAND DIMINISHES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM  
THE WESTERN VIRGINIAS BUILDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST, WINDS ARE  
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. BACKSWELL  
ENERGY KEEPING DIAMOND BUOY AROUND 8 FEET, BUT THIS SHOULD  
SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND HAVE SCA ENDING FOR THE OREGON  
INLET TO OCRACOKE LEG AT 11 PM THIS EVENING. SW/W WINDS AT 15  
KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.  
 
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/  
AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE SW 15-20 KNOTS ON  
SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN BECOMING BRIEFLY W/NW 10-15 KTS SUNDAY  
MORNING, BEFORE WINDS RETURN BACK TO SW 10-15 KNOTS. SW WIND  
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME WEAK  
FRONTAL INTRUSIONS RESULTING IN SHIFTING WINDS OVER NORTHERN  
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH FRONT PUSHING THROUGH ALL  
WATERS TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN MAINLY 2-4 FEET  
REST OF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-  
154.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...CTC  
NEAR TERM...CTC  
SHORT TERM...CTC  
LONG TERM...BM  
AVIATION...CTC/BM  
MARINE...CTC/BM  
 
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