200  
FXUS62 KMHX 201039  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
639 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, THEN  
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. A STRONGER FRONT WILL PUSH  
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THAT FRONT  
WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY  
SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
 
 
AS OF 640 AM WED...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS LOOKS LIKE WEAK BOUNDARY  
IS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND NORTHERN OBX EARLY THIS  
MORNING, THOUGH TOUGH TO SAY EXACTLY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
ANCHORED OFFSHORE. DID INCREASE SKY COVER ACROSS THE NE  
SECTIONS AND NORTHERN OBX THIS MORNING BASED ON SATELLITE  
TRENDS. PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  
 
CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH MANY FORECAST SPECIFICS HINGING  
ON THE EXACT BOUNDARY PLACEMENT, WHICH IS UNCERTAIN. THE UPPER  
RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE  
VICINITY. THE NAM PUSHES THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH THAN MOST  
GUIDANCE, KEEPING A COOLER MORE N/NE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
AREA. TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE BOUNDARY  
PUSHING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN COAST THIS MORNING, THEN LIFTING  
BACK NORTH TOWARDS NE NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HEAT  
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY  
EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 264, FOR HEAT INDEX  
VALUES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING TO 105-109 DEGREES. LOW LEVEL  
THICKNESSES VALUES AND 850 MB TEMPS 19-20C SUPPORT HIGHS AGAIN  
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN  
YESTERDAY, BUT HOT TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL  
RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS ENC. ELSEWHERE FOR  
THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES AND OBX, AT THIS TIME EXPECT HEAT  
INDEX VALUES TO REMAIN BELOW 105 DEG.  
 
SPC HAS UPGRADED ALL OF THE REGION TO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE  
WX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO  
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INITIALLY AIDED BY THE SEABREEZE, SFC  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MOST HIGH  
RES MODELS SHOW INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, BECOMING MORE  
ORGANIZED, LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY  
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY UNSTABLE  
ATMOSPHERE WITH MU CAPE VALUES 3-4000 J/KG, LIS UP TO -9C, 0-6  
KM SHEAR 10-20 KT, AND PWATS ABOUT 2-2.25". STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND IT STILL  
LOOKS LIKE THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 3 AM WED...EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY EVENING,  
THOUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND PUSH  
OFF THE COAST PER AGREEMENT IN HIGH RES GUIDANCE. THE WEAK  
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD, AND/OR WASH OUT,  
WITH S/SW FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT WITH  
LOWS IN THE 70S. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG  
AND/OR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 350 AM WEDNESDAY...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH INTO  
THE AREA IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RIDGING THEN  
RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEEKEND WITH A STRONGER UPPER  
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NC  
MONDAY. RESULT WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A ROLLER COASTER EFFECT ON  
TEMPS AND GENERALLY AT LEAST A SCATTERED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND  
TSTMS EACH DAY.  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FRONT TO NORTH OF AREA THU MORNING  
WILL PUSH SOUTH DURING AFTERNOON AND TO NEAR ILM THU NIGHT AND  
WILL AGAIN BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, WITH SOME  
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.  
WILL CAP POPS AT 50% THU AND THU NIGHT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN  
LOCATION AND TIMING OF BEST RAIN THREAT (THU OR THU NIGHT). HIGH  
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS TO NORTH WILL KEEP FRONT STALLED TO  
SOUTH WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE FRIDAY BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO  
INDICATE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS OUR AREA.  
 
FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH RETURN OF  
INLAND THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN FOR REST OF WEEKEND, AND WILL KEEP  
TYPICAL 20% COAST/30% INLAND POPS BOTH DAYS. STRONGER UPPER  
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM NW MONDAY AND  
WILL HAVE 40-50% CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON  
NIGHT FOR NOW.  
 
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS  
MAINLY LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 INLAND. SOME  
RELIEF BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER  
80S. HEAT RETURNS FOR WEEKEND WITH AROUND 90 FOR SATURDAY AND  
LOW-MID 90S SUNDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO  
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY.  
 
TUE AND WED...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION  
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AS IS  
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL  
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT TO WARRANT LOW CHANCE  
POPS BOTH DAYS FOR A FEW MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR  
STORMS. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID  
80S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 640 AM WED...PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT  
HOUR OR SO, WITH PRED VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY  
EVENING, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW  
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,  
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.  
 
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST  
OF THE LONG TERM, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPORARY SUB VFR  
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH DAY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SUB-VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NE-E  
FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 640 AM WED...CHALLENGING WINDS FORECAST TODAY, WITH WEAK  
BOUNDARY IMPACTING THE WATERS. LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA  
INDICATE MOSTLY NE TO W WINDS 5-10 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FT  
NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 3-5 FT SOUTH OF HATTERAS. A WEAK BOUNDARY  
IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE WATERS THIS MORNING, THEN  
LIFT BACK NORTH OR WASH OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. EXPECT  
NE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY TODAY, WITH WNW/WSW  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS, GENERALLY 5-15 KT. AS BOUNDARY LIFTS  
NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, EXPECT THE WINDS ACROSS ALL  
WATERS TO BECOME MORE S/SW 10-20 KT, STRONGEST SOUTH OF  
HATTERAS. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH INITIALIZING ABOUT 1 FT TOO LOW  
SOUTH OF HATTERAS THIS MORNING. SEAS AROUND 2 FT NORTH OF  
HATTERAS THIS MORNING, AND 3-5 FT SOUTH. EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE  
TO 2-4 FT BY LATE MORNING, HIGHEST SOUTH OF HATTERAS, AND  
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.  
 
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW 15-20 KT WITH  
3-4 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED THU AS THE GRADIENT INCREAES AHEAD OF  
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE  
WATERS LATE THU NIGHT. THE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT THU NIGHT INTO  
FRI NIGHT WILL BECOME NE-E 10-15 KT WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS. SAT  
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS THEN STRENGTHENS TO 15 TO 20 KT  
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. THE MODERATE  
15-20 KT SW FLOW CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25  
KT AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLY BUILDING TO 6 FT OVER PORTIONS  
OF THE OUTER WATERS.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.  
 
RECORD HIGH TEMPS 6/20 (TODAY)  
LOCATIONTEMP/YEAR  
CAPE HATTERAS 92/2011  
GREENVILLE 99/1970  
JACKSONVILLE 97/1994  
KINSTON 104/1924  
MOREHEAD CITY93/2011  
NEW BERN98/1994  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING  
FOR NCZ044-079>081-090>095-098.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...CQD  
NEAR TERM...CQD  
SHORT TERM...CQD  
LONG TERM...JME  
AVIATION...JME/CQD  
MARINE...JME/CQD  
CLIMATE...MHX  
 
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