917  
FXUS62 KMHX 191042  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
642 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH WEDNESDAY,  
BRINGING WITH IT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS  
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
 
 
AS OF 0635 TUESDAY...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND  
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FA  
FROM THE W. WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES EARLY WITH NERLY SURGE OF CAA  
BUT WILL RELAX WHILE BACKING TO BECOME WERLY BY THIS  
AFTERNOON AS THE JETS EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH ALOFT PUSH  
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING. WE HAVE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER  
SPS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND ENC. SEE FWF OR FIRE WEATHER  
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION. CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE  
MID 50S, LOW 50S OBX.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 0400 TUESDAY...QUIET NIGHT ON TAP WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE FA AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE  
ZONAL BRIEFLY WITH BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ECONUS  
BROADENING AS ONE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION TO THE NE AND  
ANOTHER DIGGING DOWN THE WERN HALF OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE  
GREAT LAKES. A LIGHT SWERLY BREEZE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL  
KEEP WAA IN PLACE WHICH WILL LEAD TO WARMER MINTS THAN MON NIGHT  
DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY. MINTS LOW 40S  
AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE COAST, MID 40S TO LOW 50S BEACHES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 250 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. A  
DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO  
THE WEEKEND, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE IMPACTS TO THE  
AREA, WHICH COULD LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS  
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING  
BACK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY  
OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK TO 65-70 DEG WITH SUNNY  
SKIES. THEN SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER POST FRONTAL THURSDAY, WITH  
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TRENDING A BIT  
COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, AND IF INLAND AREAS  
ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS  
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH  
THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO SPREAD IN THE  
GUIDANCE AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN LONGER RANGE MODEL  
GUIDANCE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE PROGRESSIVE  
SOLUTION, WHILE THE 00Z EC AND CMC SHOW A SLOWER, STRONGER SFC  
LOW THAT LINGERS/STALLS NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST INTO MONDAY  
WHILE MERGING WITH CUT OFF UPPER LOW. MULTIPLE IMPACTS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING: HEAVY RAIN, PROLONGED  
PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING (SEE COASTAL  
FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFO). SPECIFIC IMPACTS WILL  
DEPEND ON TIMING, TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. CONTINUED TO  
INCREASE POPS AND WINDS SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AT  
THIS TIME BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY...WITH WINDS PEAKING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  
IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE  
TO FINE TUNE SPECIFICS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 0640 TUESDAY...VFR FLIGHT CATS WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKC LASTS INTO MIDWEEK NOW THAT THE  
TROUGH AXIS HAS CLEARED AREA TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS AGAIN TODAY  
WILL BE THE ONLY CONCERN; NWERLY EARLY, BACKING TO BECOME WERLY  
IN THE AFTERNOON, SWERLY THIS EVENING. NO FOG CONCERNS WITH VERY  
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT BREEZE PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.  
 
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
AS OF 250 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH  
THURSDAY. BREEZY W WINDS WED WITH GUSTS 15-25 KT. CHANCES FOR  
SUB-VFR WILL BE INCREASING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE  
DAY FRIDAY, BECOMING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES  
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUES NIGHT/...  
AS OF 0640 TUESDAY...THREAT OF INFREQUENT 35-40KT GUSTS HAS  
ENDED THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE MWW TO BETTER REPRESENT THE  
WINDSPEEDS THAT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE SCAS.  
REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCO AS OF 0400 TUESDAY...GUSTY N-NWERLY WINDS EARLY  
AS AXIS OF SHORTWAVE IN UPPER TROUGH PASSES DEPARTS. WATERS AND  
SOUNDS COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS APPROACHING 35KTS, WITH BRIEF  
GUSTS UP TO 40KTS OVER THE GULF STREAM. AN SCA IS IN PLACE FOR  
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF  
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN,  
RELAXING WINDS WHILE BACKING TO BECOME WERLY 10-15KT THIS  
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AGAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT  
AS WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO BECOME SWERLY 15-20G25KT BY  
2000EDT, SWERLY 20-25G30KT BY MIDNIGHT LOCAL. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY  
4-7FT FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 2-5FT BY THIS AFTERNOON,  
INCREASING AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRENGTHENING WINDS TO  
4-7FT.  
 
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
AS OF 250 AM TUE...MODERATE TO BREEZY WSW 15-25 KT WINDS WILL  
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH SEAS  
3-6 FT. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND AND  
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WED EVE/NIGHT. A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE  
THROUGH THE WATERS LATE WED NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,  
WITH GUSTY SW WINDS BECOMING N 15-20 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25  
KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE POST FRONTAL FLOW FOR A FEW HOURS  
THURSDAY MORNING. FLOW WILL GRAD VEER THU NIGHT BECOMING E 10-15  
KT, THEN INCREASING TO 15-25 KT FRIDAY, AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS  
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS WILL BUILD  
TO 4-6 FT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.  
 
VERY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE  
WATERS THIS WEEKEND, THEN LIKELY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,  
AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WATERS. A PROLONGED  
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED, WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORM  
FORCE WINDS. WINDS EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY  
NIGHT. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 10-15+ FT.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
AS OF 250 AM TUE...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED  
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY FUELS, LOW RH VALUES AND BREEZY WINDS.  
INCREASED FIRE DANGER SPS CONTINUES FOR TODAY. THE DAY SHIFT  
WILL REASSESS THE NEED FOR ANOTHER IFD SPS WED,  
 
TODAY - *INCREASED FIRE DANGER* MIN RH VALUES 20-25% INLAND,  
25-30% COAST, AND BREEZY NWERLY WINDS EARLY BECOMING WERLY  
10-15MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH.  
 
WED - MIN RH VALUES 25-30% AND WSW WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS  
UP TO 25 MPH.  
 
THU - MIN RH VALUES 20-25% AND N WINDS 5-15 MPH.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
AS OF 250 AM TUE...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A  
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE WEEK AND THIS  
THE WEEKEND. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING  
AND THE TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR  
TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING, BOTH SOUNDSIDE AND OCEANSIDE WITH  
LOCALIZED OCEAN OVERWASH, ROUGH SURF AND BEACH EROSION. IMPACTS  
MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN PEAKING SATURDAY AND  
SUNDAY, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MONDAY. BREEZY SE WINDS EXPECTED  
FRIDAY NIGHT, BECOMING NORTHERLY BY SAT NIGHT. TROUBLESOME AREA  
ON THE NORTHERN END OF OCRACOKE ISLAND MAY BE IMPACTED WITH  
OCEAN OVERWASH ON HWY 12. WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE  
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ131-136-  
137-230-231.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-  
156-158.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...CEB  
SHORT TERM...CEB  
LONG TERM...CQD  
AVIATION...CQD/CEB  
MARINE...CQD/CEB  
FIRE WEATHER...MHX  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX  
 
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