946  
FXUS62 KMHX 222220  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
620 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THEN  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.  
HURRICANE MARIA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST  
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 620 PM FRIDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH CURRENT PATCHY CU  
FIELD DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET AND MCLR SKIES LEADING TO GOOD  
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIKELY SOME FOG OVERNIGHT.  
 
PREV DISC...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA  
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH LATE TODAY AN ISOLATED  
SHOWER MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS THREAT ENDING WITH THE LOSS OF  
DAYTIME HEATING. DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD IS ALSO EXPECTED TO  
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY PATCHY CLOUDS EXPECTED  
OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM, STRONG  
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY  
DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. WENT WITH THE COOLEST GUIDANCE FOR  
LOWS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. FALL OFFICIALLY  
ARRIVES AT 402 PM THIS AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...FALL WILL GET OFF TO A WARM DRY START  
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. MORNING FOG  
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE RAPIDLY IN THE MORNING WITH TYPICAL  
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 250 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES  
WILL EXTEND DOWN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHILE WE  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR HURRICANE MARIA. SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES  
REGARDING THE TRACK OF MARIA. EASTERN NC RESIDENTS AND  
INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST  
OFFICIAL FORECASTS FROM NHC.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND  
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND, AS THE REMNANTS OF JOSE MEANDER WELL OFF THE NE COAST.  
PRED DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND  
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S COASTAL PLAIN TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S  
ALONG THE COAST.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HURRICANE MARIA IS CURRENTLY FORECAST  
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OFF THE SE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. EVENTUAL  
TRACK WILL BE DETERMINED BY SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING THE  
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND REMNANT CIRCULATION OF JOSE. IT  
IS STILL TOO SOON TO DETERMINE SPECIFIC IMPACTS FOR EASTERN NC,  
WHICH WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK/HOW CLOSE TO THE  
COAST IT GETS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW MARIA DOWN, KEEPING IT  
OFF THE SE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY  
FURTHER WESTWARD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS  
OF THE EXACT TRACK, ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE  
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, AS LARGE LONG PERIOD  
SOUTHEAST SWELLS BUILD. GUSTY N/NW WINDS, MINOR COASTAL  
FLOODING, AND OCEAN OVERWASH/EROSION WILL BE ALSO POSSIBLE,  
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. SLIGHT  
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST, POSSIBLE  
THROUGH WED. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA  
LATE WEEK, AS MARIA PUSHES FURTHER ENE OFFSHORE. TEMPS THROUGH  
THE PERIOD, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S  
AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S/LOW 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...  
AS OF 620 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY  
EVENING. THEN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT  
WITH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS IS EXPECTED  
TO RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING WITH CONDITIONS GOING  
FROM MVFR TO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH AS  
YESTERDAY THOUGH DUE TO VERY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES  
WHICH WOULD LIMIT VERTICAL EXTENT OF FOG. FOG IS EXPECTED TO  
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER 13Z SATURDAY WITH VFR WITH SCATTERED  
HIGH BASED AFTERNOON CUMULUS.  
 
LONG TERM /SAT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  
AS OF 250 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE  
PERIOD, THOUGH SOME EARLY MORNING FG/BR AND LOW STRATUS MAY  
DEVELOP EACH NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS  
THE REGION. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS  
MON THROUGH WED.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...  
AS OF 620 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH SWELLS FROM JOSE AND  
MARIA LEADING TO SCA ALL WATERS TONIGHT.  
 
PREV DISC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ALL OF  
THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS. LARGE SWELL, RESIDUAL FROM JOSE  
COMBINED WITH NEWLY ARRIVING FROM MARIA, WILL PRODUCE SEAS IN  
EXCESS OF 6 FT OVER THE EASTERN NC WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  
THIS WILL CAUSE WAVES IN THE INLETS TO BECOME DANGEROUS A COUPLE  
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF LOW TIDE WHICH OCCURS AROUND 4 PM TODAY  
AND 4 AM SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE TODAY WILL  
BECOME NORTHERLY 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO  
NE 10 TO 15 KT LATE SATURDAY.  
 
LONG TERM /SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED/...  
AS OF 250 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES  
WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHILE WE  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR HURRICANE MARIA. SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES  
REGARDING THE TRACK OF HURRICANE MARIA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND  
NEXT WEEK, THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW IT DOWN KEEPING IT  
OFFSHORE OF THE SE COAST THROUGH THU. MARINERS AND INTERESTED  
PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECASTS  
FROM NHC. SCA CONTINUE FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE  
PERIOD.  
 
N/NE WINDS 10-20 KT SUN THEN LIKELY INCREASING TO 15-25 KT MON  
AND TUE AS MARIA LIFTS NORTHWARD. AT THIS TIME STRONGEST WINDS  
LOOK LIKE TUE AND WED. LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE  
TO GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD, PEAKING MID WEEK. HAVE  
CAPPED SEAS AT 15-16 FT FOR THE WATERS NEXT WEEK, THOUGH COULD  
END UP BEING MUCH HIGHER IF TRACK SHIFTS MORE WESTWARD. STILL  
TOO SOON TO DETERMINE SPECIFIC IMPACTS FROM MARIA, BUT DANGEROUS  
SEAS EXPECTED AND GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ROUGH SURF  
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ095-  
103-104.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-  
154.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JME/EH  
NEAR TERM...RF/JME  
SHORT TERM...JME  
LONG TERM...CQD  
AVIATION...RF/JME/CQD  
MARINE...RF/JME/CQD  
 
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