197
FXUS62 KRAH 231930
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
329 PM EDT TUE APR 23 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT
COULD BRING SOME SOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY BEFORE BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON,
ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND 70 DEGREES, A
LITTLE COOLER THAN THE TYPICAL MID 70S FOR HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. BETWEEN THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT, WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 329 PM TUESDAY...
EMBEDDED WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT, A SHEARED VORTICITY WAVE WILL RIDE
THROUGH MID-ATLANTIC/CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST FLEETING MOISTURE SATURATION EXTENDING
TO THE SFC, INDICATING THAT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS,
DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS BETWEEN ~15 AND 00Z.
OVERALL THOUGH, QPF SHOULD BE QUITE LOW (TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDS)
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 329 PM TUESDAY...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY AS PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW
THURSDAY/FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO BUILDING/AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGING
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
AFTER SOME COOLER NELY SFC FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH), FLOW WILL TURN MORE ESELY AND
THEN SSWLY SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
AS SUCH, WE'LL SEE A WARMING TREND STARTING THIS WEEKEND IN THE
UPPER 70S, FOLLOWED BY A CLIMB IN THE MID 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE NOT UNTIL NEXT
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1250 PM TUESDAY...
TAF PERIOD: WHILE THE 18Z TAFS INCLUDE FIVE SINGLE-LINE TAFS, THERE
ARE A COUPLE POTENTIAL WRINKLES TO THE FORECAST. FIRST, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT, PRIMARILY
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY, WITH RDU BEING THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL
AND RWI/FAY TO A LESSER EXTENT. THE NAM IS DEPICTING A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER JET THAN THE GFS, BARELY TOUCHING 40KT, AND WILL ALLOW
LATER SHIFTS TO RE-EVALUATE WHETHER LLWS IS NEEDED. NEXT, THE WIND
IS NOT EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT, SO A SINGLE LINE FOR WIND
APPEARS FINE, BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD HAVE SOME GUSTS THAT WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO PROMPT AN AMENDMENT. FINALLY, THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY DRY
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY, BUT A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS, WITH RWI
THE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE RAINFALL.
OUTLOOK: A WIND SHIFT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A
BRIEF RESTRICTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN A SHOWER. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GREEN
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...LUCHETTI
LONG TERM...LUCHETTI
AVIATION...GREEN
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