916  
FXUS62 KRAH 180835  
AFDRAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC  
335 AM EST SUN FEB 18 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, THEN QUICKLY  
DRIFT OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...  
 
GOES-16 1-MINUTE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED  
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER. THIS  
IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z OBSERVATIONAL SOUNDINGS WITH A STRONG LOW  
LEVEL INVERSION AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST  
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT. WHILE NORTHWESTERLY WOULD BE THE OPTIMAL  
FLOW FOR OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CASES ARE WELL  
DOCUMENTED AND NOT UNUSUAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY DRY  
AIRMASS ALOFT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PENETRATE TO THE SURFACE AND  
CLEAR THINGS OUT BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE UNTIL 15Z OR SO. UNTIL THEN  
EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. ONCE CLEARING OCCURS  
EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY SWING AROUND TO NORTHEASTERLY BY THIS  
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS MOST OF THE  
DAY, INSOLATION WILL BE PLENTY AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO  
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S, QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  
 
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING EXPECT CLOUDS TO START FILLING BACK IN FROM  
THE SOUTHWEST. POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH  
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH  
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS IT DOES. LOWS IN THE 40S WITH LOWEST TEMPS IN  
THE NORTHEAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...  
 
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT ON MONDAY MORNING, CENTRAL NC WILL  
ENTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG  
BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE BRINGING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR  
ADVECTION TO THE AREA. WHILE IT MAY TAKE A CAD WEDGE A LITTLE WHILE  
TO BREAK DOWN, SOUTHERN LOCALES WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING  
THE 70 DEGREE MARK BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY  
MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF THE WEDGE  
SCOURS OUT SOONER, TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIAD COULD BE UNDERDONE. AS  
IS THE CASE WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW, POCKETS OF SHOWERS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY BUT LARGELY  
INCONSEQUENTIAL. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT MORE  
MODERATE, ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 257 AM SUNDAY...  
 
A 595 RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST AND RESULTING WARM SOUTHERLY  
FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL GIVE US UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS DURING  
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH PERHAPS SOME RECORD HIGHS. THIS RIDGE  
WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK,  
WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH (PERHAPS IN  
BACKDOOR FASHION) ON THURSDAY, DROPPING SOUTHWARD TO ROUGHLY THE I-  
85 CORRIDOR. THEREAFTER, MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE REGARDING WHETHER  
THE FRONT PUSHES ALL THE WAY THROUGH OUR CWA ON FRIDAY PER THE GFS,  
OR LIFTS BACK NORTH EARLY FRIDAY PER THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY, IT  
APPEARS THAT LOW-END POPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN  
HALF OF OUR CWA FOR LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, IF  
THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON FRI PER THE ECMWF, THAT WOULD RESULT  
IN A DRIER FORECAST FOR FRI AND SAT. HOWEVER, IF IT PUSHES THROUGH  
ON FRI THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH ON SAT PER THE GFS, THAT WOULD RESULT  
IN LINGERING RAIN CHANCES BOTH DAYS.  
 
AS FOR TEMPS...THERE'S DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE THROUGH AT  
LEAST THURSDAY WITH THICKNESS PROFILES, WHICH SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. READINGS THIS WARM WOULD BREAK SOME HIGH  
TEMP RECORDS TUE, WED, PERHAPS THU. (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).  
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO  
RECORD WARM LOWS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 633 PM SUNDAY...  
 
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS MADE IT HALF WAY THROUGH  
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD EXITING  
THE AREA BY 8 OR 9 Z. MODERATE SHOWERS AT KRWI MAY ALSO AFFECT KFAY  
LATER BUT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY. PRECIPITATION IS OVER AT KINT,  
KGSO, AND KRDU AND CEILINGS WILL CLEAR OUT AND FOLLOWED BY SOME  
BRIEF PATCHY DENSE FOG BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.  
AFTER ANY FOG LIFTS, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WIND DIRECTION AS  
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWING AROUND TO NORTHEASTERLY BY THIS  
AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN  
THE SOUTH. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CREEP INTO THE SOUTHERN AREAS BY THE  
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
LONG TERM: ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT  
PRESENTING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION. A  
FRONTAL ZONE WILL RESIDE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WORK  
WEEK AND COULD PRESENT SOME PROBLEMS FOR AVIATION CONDITIONS IN THE  
TRIAD ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
RDU RECORDS:  
 
DATE | HIGH YEAR | HIGH MIN YEAR  
------------------------------------------  
02/20 75 1939 62 1939  
02/21 76 2011 55 1939  
02/22 75 1897 60 1897  
02/23 79 1980 57 1962  
02/24 81 1982 58 1985  
 
GSO RECORDS:  
 
DATE | HIGH YEAR | HIGH MIN YEAR  
------------------------------------------  
02/20 74 1922 56 1939  
02/21 74 2011 50 1954  
02/22 74 1925 57 1980  
02/23 74 2017 52 1922  
02/24 79 1982 55 1985  
 
FAY RECORDS:  
 
DATE | HIGH YEAR | HIGH MIN YEAR  
-------------------------------------------  
02/20 82 2014 60 1939  
02/21 80 1991 61 1953  
02/22 77 2003 56 1989  
02/23 80 1922 55 1922  
02/24 83 1930 60 1975  

 
   
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...ELLIS  
NEAR TERM...ELLIS  
SHORT TERM...ELLIS  
LONG TERM...NP  
AVIATION...ELLIS  
CLIMATE...BADGETT  
 
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