374  
FXUS62 KRAH 241859  
AFDRAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC  
259 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID  
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY.  
HURRICANE MARIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN  
ATLANTIC, PARALLELING THE SE COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 259 PM SUNDAY...  
 
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STACKED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE  
NE AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL SUPPORT DRY AND STABLES CONDITIONS  
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR/FAIR SKIES, LOWS TONIGHT WILL  
ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 259 PM SUNDAY...  
 
DEEP LAYER RIDGING CENTERED OVER NY WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION  
ON MONDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING/BREAKING-DOWN MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS  
MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST, PARALLELING THE CAROLINA  
COAST. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT  
THE DAY AS THE OUTER OUTFLOW CIRRUS BANDS PUSH WEST INTO THE AREA,  
WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY OPAQUE ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 TO TEMPER  
AFTERNOON HEATING. HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 80S IN THE EAST TO  
MID/UPPER 80S SW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR  
NORTH AND MARIA WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TIGHTEN, PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN  
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.  
 
STRENGTHENING NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT SOME ATLANTIC MARITIME  
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF  
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. OWING TO THE INCREASE IN  
CLOUDS/MOISTURE, LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER  
THAN PAST RECENT NIGHTS. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 258 AM SUNDAY...  
 
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST AND MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATE THE  
CLOSEST APPROACH OF HURRICANE MARIA TO THE NC COAST SHOULD BE FROM  
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BEFORE THE STORM FINALLY GETS A  
BOOT EASTWARD FROM THE EXPECTED DEEPENING AND DIGGING MID/UPPER  
TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. BASED ON THE LATEST NHC FORECASTS AND  
GUIDANCE, THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WINDY (15-25 MPH  
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH) TO OUR COASTAL PLAIN MIDWEEK, WITH BREEZY (10-  
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH) CONDITIONS TO THE PIEDMONT AND  
SANDHILLS REGIONS. THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WIND  
SPEED IN OUR SE COASTAL PLAIN HAS INCREASED TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30  
PERCENT, WITH ONLY 5-10 PERCENT BACK OVER THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE  
AREAS. HOWEVER, THE QPF IS STILL LOW GIVEN THE LATEST NHC TRACK.  
PROBABILITIES OF 1+ INCH ARE STILL LESS THAN 50/50 ALONG THE I-95  
CORRIDOR.  
 
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK -  
WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT, AND PROGRESSIVELY  
LOWER OVERCAST AND HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES TO THE EAST. EXPECT CLOUDY  
SKIES EAST, VARIABLY CLOUDY CENTRAL, AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY  
CLEAR ALONG THE YADKIN RIVER MID WEEK. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY 65-72  
W TO SE TUE-THU, WITH HIGHS HELD DOWN IN THE EAST (UPPER 70S),  
RANGING TO THE UPPER 80S SW.  
 
FINALLY, THE TC THREAT SHOULD GET PUSHED SEAWARD THURSDAY COURTESY  
OF THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROUGH. THE LEADING FRONT SHOULD LITTLE  
IF ANY SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT (AS THE FRONT WILL BE  
ROBBED OF MOISTURE BY THE MARIA). HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S  
EXPECTED.  
 
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDING SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS  
FRIDAY 75-82, THEN ONLY 70-75 SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE 50S (SOME 40S IN  
THE NW BY SATURDAY).  
 
MODELS DO SUGGEST A POTENTIAL WAVE ON THE FRONT OVER FL OR THE SE  
COAST BY SUNDAY, WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST NE FLOW IN THE LOWER  
LEVELS. WE WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO INDICATE  
THE CHANCE OF OVERRUNNING RAIN BY THEN.  
 

 
 
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
AS OF 115 PM SUNDAY...  
 
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS  
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A STEADY 3 TO 5KT NORTHERLY BREEZE  
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK: AS HURRICANE MARIA MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN  
ATLANTIC NEAR A LATITUDE OF THE NC COAST, EASTERN TERMINALS COULD  
SEE SOME SUB-VFR CEILINGS AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING  
WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY AND LINGERING INTO  
WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST NHC OFFICIAL TRACK, PRECIPITATION AND  
RESULTANT AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO EASTERN  
TERMINALS.  
 

 
   
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...CBL/BADGETT  
NEAR TERM...CBL  
SHORT TERM...BSD  
LONG TERM...BADGETT  
AVIATION...CBL  
 
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