618
FXUS62 KRAH 220825
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND
PUSH OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 150 AM SUNDAY...
TODAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY AND NIGHT OF THIS STRETCH,
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THERMAL TROUGH CENTERED TO OUR N
PASSES OVER LK ONTARIO AND EXTENDS DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL NC. HI-RES
AND LARGE SCALE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY, WITH A DRY/STABLE COLUMN, NO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA, AND A FAST DRY NW FLOW ALOFT.
EXPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW PASSING HIGH THIN CLOUDS WITH PWS UNDER A
QUARTER INCH, LESS THAN 25% OF NORMAL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 45-50 M BELOW NORMAL THIS MORNING, WITH FAIRLY
SHALLOW MIXING, FAVORING MUCH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS OF 36-43. CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH VERY LIGHT TO CALM WIND WILL RESULT
IN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, AS OVERNIGHT
THICKNESSES WILL STILL BE 30 M BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL SUPPORT VERY
CHILLY LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. -GIH
SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...
ANOTHER QUIET AND CHILLY DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE SURFACE
HIGH'S CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST MON, WHILE
CONTINUING TO EXTEND DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL NC. SURFACE FLOW FROM THE
NE OR ENE WILL REMAIN LIGHT, BUT FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES AND
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT JUST OFF THE GA/SC COAST WILL KEEP NE
WINDS UP A BIT IN OUR SE. THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW (850-500 MB) WILL
BACK FROM NW TO SW, BUT THE DRY TRAJECTORY WILL CONTINUE WITH STABLE
AND WARM AIR ALOFT IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM, SO SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT LESS CHILLY WITH SLOW AIR MASS
MODIFICATION, SO EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S. -GIH
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 259 PM SATURDAY...
AS OF MONDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE SITTING OVER
NEW YORK WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FORCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO
DEVELOP OFF THE FLORIDA COAST MONDAY EVENING. THE LOW SHOULD REACH
ITS CLOSEST POINT TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFF
THE COAST OF WILMINGTON AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AFTER THAT.
THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND, AND AT THIS POINT, HAVE KEPT A DRY
FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT BUT INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL THAT
PRECIPITATION COULD START OFF VERY BRIEFLY AS FREEZING RAIN, AS
SOUNDINGS SHOW A THICK LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ABOVE THE
SURFACE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE FREEZING RAIN IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME; THE PRECIPITATION IS PRIMARILY EXPECTED TO
FALL AS RAIN. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT, HAVE
REMOVED POPS FROM THAT PART OF THE FORECAST. MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE
UPPER 40S. SIMILARLY, MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SUNDAY NIGHT, RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. ALL
LOCATIONS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 50S ON TUESDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON CHRISTMAS AND MOVE
EAST. HOWEVER, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN ALL
MODELS IN HOW QUICKLY EAST PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
NORTH CAROLINA, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL DRY AIR. PRIMARILY RELYING ON ENSEMBLES, HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, CONSIDERING THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IT'S NOT UNTIL FRIDAY THAT THE
GEFS AND EPS BOTH START TO SHOW A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF RAINFALL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST, AND HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1215 AM SUNDAY...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
NC TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS A DRY AND CHILLY AIR MASS
EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NE OR ENE UNDER 8 KTS.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z MON, VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH MON. THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN MON NIGHT
THROUGH TUE AT RDU/FAY/RWI, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES AT FAY/RWI, AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE ALONG THE NC COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN DOMINATE FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU, ALTHOUGH A SHORT
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE WED/WED NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. -GIH
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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