261  
FXUS62 KRAH 021905  
AFDRAH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC  
205 PM EST FRI DEC 2 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS  
AFTERNOON, REACH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY, THEN EXTEND DOWN THE  
EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY. A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE  
WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY, AS A STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER TEXAS  
INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 140 PM FRIDAY...  
 
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH  
DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SE WITH CAA OVER THE THE EASTERN  
STATES INCLUDING NC. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO REACH THE  
EASTERN SEABOARD, ONLY DOING SO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS  
WILL PROLONG THE COOL DRY CONDITIONS FOR NC. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO  
REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60, WARMEST IN THE SANDHILLS AND FAR  
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT ZONES. A NW BREEZE AT 10-15 MPH WILL ADD TO THE  
COOLNESS OF THE AIR, DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 MPH BY SUNSET.  
 
OTHER THAN A FEW CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME, MAINLY SOUTHWEST, CLEAR  
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. DUE TO THE DISTANCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE  
FROM OUR REGION TONIGHT, OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS NOT EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AT LEAST SOME MIXING THROUGH MIDNIGHT, GIVE  
OR TAKE A FEW HOURS. THEN CALM CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW EXCELLENT  
RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE TONIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY 28-35, COLDEST IN  
THE RURAL PIEDMONT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...  
 
TIMING OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO IS STILL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT  
AND MONDAY; HOWEVER, AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE EXTENDS DOWN  
THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATER IN THE WEEKEND, MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM  
THE ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL FRONT FORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS  
MEANS INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  
WE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH THE  
COASTAL FRONT TO THE SE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DEPENDING ON  
HOW MUCH QFP, COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD) WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP SUNDAY  
AND LINGER AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL TREND  
POP UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND TREND TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW  
GUIDANCE SUNDAY ANTICIPATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CAD WITH THE  
COOL/DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE AIDING IN IT'S DEVELOPMENT. MANY  
PIEDMONT AREAS MAY STAY IN THE 40S SUNDAY DEPENDING ON TIMING  
OF RAIN AND CAD DEVELOPMENT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...  
 
A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE UP THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY MONDAY AND  
DEPENDING UPON ITS TRACK COULD BRING SOME RAIN TO CENTRAL NC AND  
POINTS EAST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND  
EAST BEFORE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
THE REAL WEATHER MAKER OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND  
TUESDAY WITH A MILLER B SCENARIO THAT WILL BRING TWO LOWS OUT OF THE  
DEEP SOUTH, ONE WHICH WILL MOVE UP THE COAST AND THE OTHER WEST OF  
THE APPALACHIANS AND UP THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE UPSHOT IS  
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ENOUGH  
DYNAMIC TO BRING SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID,  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY STABLE WITH A STRONG WARM NOSE OVER THE  
AREA THAT WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME SO THE THREAT FOR ANY THUNDER AT  
THIS TIME SEEMS LOW BUT A CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW  
COULD CHANGE THAT. WARMER BUT A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS  
THE AREA WITH LOW 50S IN THE TRIAD TO LOW 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST.  
 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE TRANQUIL AND MILD WITH CLEAR TO  
SCATTERED CLOUDS. A FEW SHOWERS CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING IN  
ADVANCE OF A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE  
CENTRAL US. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY THE  
TIME SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL TO OR BELOW 0C. 1000-500 MB  
THICKNESSES IN THE 1510 TO 1520 RANGE ON FRIDAY SO MAX TEMPS WILL  
BEIN THE 40S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S,  
PERHAPS IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE TRIAD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...  
 
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NW WINDS  
10KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO LESS 5KT TONIGHT.  
 
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SAT: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO  
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LOWERING CIGS SUNDAY OR SUNDAY  
NIGHT, MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS. RAIN SHOULD  
HOLD OFF, BUT THE CHANCE OF DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN  
PIEDMONT IN THE DAMMING REGION AROUND KGSO/KINT AS EARLY AS SUNDAY  
NIGHT. IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT, MVFR TO VFR  
VSBYS IN THE EAST.  
 
PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH  
TUESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED  
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS DEEP MOISTURE INTO  
NC. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN/FOG/LOW CIGS SOMETIME EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. TIMING STILL IN QUESTION.  
 

 
   
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT  
NEAR TERM...BADGETT  
SHORT TERM...BADGETT  
LONG TERM...FRANKLIN/ELLIS  
AVIATION...BADGETT  
 
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