797  
FXUS64 KMRX 231955  
AFDMRX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN  
255 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2018  
   
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
 
THINGS STARTING TO WIND DOWN  
FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD AS OUR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO  
THE NORTHEAST BUT STILL A LITTLE WEATHER TO DEAL WITH FIRST.  
 
WEAK SHORTWAVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH ROLLS THROUGH THIS  
EVENING, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE  
AREA. ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE PRESENT THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE  
POP IN PLACE FOR SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU, NORTHEAST TN, SOUTHWEST VA, AND OUR  
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. NO ACCUMULATION ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH  
TRACE AMOUNTS UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS  
THE HIGHEST PEAKS. BREEZY CONDITIONS REMAIN UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT  
WHEN THE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. THOUGH THE TROUGH BEGINS TO  
EXIT, RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND AND RESULT IN CLOUDY  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40.  
CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO LOW  
DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE  
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S, WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL.  
 
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES IN TOMORROW AND WILL KEEP A VERY SMALL  
AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST TN AND INTO  
THE HIGH TERRAIN. THIS NEXT WAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN FOR AREAS NORTH  
OF I-40, THE SOUTHERN VALLEY SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT TOMORROW  
MORNING. THE CENTRAL VALLEY WILL CLEAR OUT LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  
WITH THIS SECONDARY WAVE EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN TOMORROW  
AFTERNOON BUT NOT NEAR AS BREEZY AS TODAY. HIGHS WILL IN THE LOWER  
40S TO UPPER 40S.  
   
LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
 
MODELS IN SOMEWHAT  
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY, WITH THE GFS BEING FAIRLY  
CONSISTENT AND THE ECMWF COMING AROUND MORE TO THE GFS SOLUTION.  
CANADIAN STILL SLOWER WITH THE WEEKEND FRONT. MODEL CONFIDENCE IS  
A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SHOULD BE DRY WITH A  
WARMING TREND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM  
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW WILL  
CARRY HIGHEST POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD  
PRIMARILY BE A RAIN EVENT, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW  
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME  
FRAME. LOOKS DRY AGAIN FOR TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 30 48 30 55 / 0 0 0 0  
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 31 44 27 50 / 10 0 0 0  
OAK RIDGE, TN 30 45 28 51 / 10 0 0 0  
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 28 41 24 48 / 20 10 0 0  
 

 
   
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SR/LW  
 
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