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FGUS73 KFGF 251934
ESFFGF
NDC005-027-071-161200-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
128 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009
..DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL
DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
VALID NOVEMBER 30, 2009 - FEBRUARY 28, 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS PROVIDING MONTHLY UPDATES OF THE
LONG-RANGE OUTLOOK FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES. THESE...AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED WEB GRAPHICS...ARE VALID FOR THE PERIOD OF
NOVEMBER 2009 THROUGH FEBRUARY 2010.
CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES RISING ABOVE
THE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS
VALID 11/30/2009 - 2/28/2010
CREEL BAY:
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
1450.0 1450.0 1450.0 1450.0 1450.0 1450.0 1450.0 1450.0 1450.0
STUMP LAKE:
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
1450.0 1450.0 1450.0 1450.0 1450.0 1450.0 1450.0 1450.0 1450.0
THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF DEVILS LAKE AT CREEL BAY IS 1449.86 FEET
THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF STUMP LAKE NEAR LAKOTA IS 1450.07 FEET
A NEW PROVISONAL RECORD DAILY AVERAGE HEIGHT OF 1450.72 FEET FOR
DEVILS LAKE AT CREEL BAY OCCURED ON JULY 27 OF 2009.
PREVIOUS RECORDS...1449.20 FEET ON MAY 9 OF 2006...1449.18 FEET ON
JUNE 17 OF 2004. FOR MORE HIGH WATER MARKS...SEE THE USGS FLOOD
TRACKING CHARTS AT:
HTTP://ND.WATER.USGS.GOV/FLOODTRACKING
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS NOW INCLUDING CHANCES THAT
DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES WILL FALL BELOW LEVELS GIVEN IN THE
PROBABILITY OF NON-EXCEEDANCE TABLE BELOW:
CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES FALLING BELOW
THE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS
VALID 11/30/2009 - 2/28/2010
CREEL BAY:
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
1449.9 1449.8 1449.8 1449.8 1449.8 1449.8 1449.8 1449.8 1449.8
STUMP LAKE:
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
1449.9 1449.8 1449.8 1449.8 1449.8 1449.8 1449.8 1449.8 1449.8
THE NON-EXCEEDANCE VALUE FOR A LISTED PERCENTAGE IS THE VALUE
WHERE THAT PERCENTAGE OF ALL MODEL CASES RUN WERE BELOW THAT
LAKE LEVEL FOR THE SPECIFIED VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK
THE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON HIGH AND LOW LAKE
LEVELS THAT WERE CALCULATED FOR THE SPECIFIED PERIOD USING MULTIPLE
SCENARIOS FROM 56 YEARS (1949-2004) OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
DATA AND CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE LAKE, SNOWCOVER (IN WINTER)...
AND SOIL MOISTURE...AS WELL AS THE SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROVIDED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER, DETAILS OF THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK USED ARE AVAILABLE
FROM THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOKS_INDEX.HTML
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF LAKE LEVEL PROBABILITIES, THE
AMOUNT OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE PART OF NOAAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES
(AHPS).
THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS PROBABILITY GRAPHS OF LAKE HEIGHT
FOR THE FULL PERIOD AS WELL AS WEEKLY PROBABILITIES. THE OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS AND EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN INTERPRETING THESE OUTLOOKS
ARE AVAILABLE FROM...
THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:
WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS
CLICK ON RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK
CURRENT DEVILS AND STUMP LAKE LEVELS ARE ALSO ON OUR WEB SITE.
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED DURING THE
FOURTH WEEK OF THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720
TEAM FGF
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