866  
FGUS73 KFGF 292023  
ESFFGF  
 
MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-  
119-125-135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-  
067-071-073-077-081-091-095-097-099-281200-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND  
254 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018  
 
   
..RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL
 
 
THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH  
AND ITS MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES.  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS NOW USE 64 YEARS (1949-2012)  
OF PAST WEATHER, TEMPERATURE, AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE  
ENSEMBLE PREDICTIVE HYDROGRAPHS USED IN CALCULATING THE  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING A RIVER LEVEL FOR THE VALID PERIOD  
OF THE OUTLOOK.  
 
OUTLOOK SCHEDULE - THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS,  
NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE PROVIDING THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC  
PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC  
OUTLOOKS FOR THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH AND ITS MINNESOTA AND  
NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING SCHEDULE:  
 
- NEAR THE END OF THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR, EXCEPT FOR...  
 
- THE SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOKS THAT WILL BE  
ISSUED AT LEAST TWICE A MONTH DURING THE SPRING SNOWMELT  
SEASON BEGINNING IN MID-TO-LATE FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH.  
 
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS THREE RIVER DATA SECTIONS:  
 
- THE FIRST (TABLE 1) GIVES THE CURRENT AND NORMAL/HISTORICAL  
CHANCES OF RIVER LOCATIONS REACHING THEIR MINOR, MODERATE,  
AND MAJOR FLOOD CATEGORIES.  
 
- THE SECOND (TABLE 2) GIVES THE CURRENT CHANCES OF RIVER  
LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE THE RIVER STAGES LISTED.  
 
- THE THIRD (TABLE 3) GIVES THE CURRENT CHANCES OF RIVER  
LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW THE RIVER STAGES LISTED.  
   
RED RIVER LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY FLOOD CATEGORY
 
 
VALID FROM JULY 01, 2018 TO SEPTEMBER 29, 2018.  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS), OR NORMAL,  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOOD  
STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
- CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
- HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL, OR NORMAL, CONDITIONS.  
 
- WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS, THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS  
IS LESS THAN HS, THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS  
LOWER THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 07/01/2018 - 09/29/2018  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH.....  
WAHPETON 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 39 36 19 10 6 <5  
HICKSON 30.0 34.0 38.0 : 14 7 5 <5 <5 <5  
FARGO 18.0 25.0 30.0 : 57 43 18 11 10 5  
HALSTAD 26.0 32.0 37.5 : 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
GRAND FORKS 28.0 40.0 46.0 : 19 15 <5 <5 <5 <5  
OSLO 26.0 30.0 36.0 : 20 20 15 7 <5 <5  
DRAYTON 32.0 38.0 42.0 : 6 6 <5 <5 <5 <5  
PEMBINA 39.0 44.0 49.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES.....  
SABIN 13.0 15.0 19.0 : 26 14 5 <5 <5 <5  
HAWLEY 8.0 9.0 11.0 : 8 9 7 8 <5 <5  
DILWORTH 13.0 20.0 26.0 : 38 22 7 <5 <5 <5  
TWIN VALLEY 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
HENDRUM 20.0 28.0 32.0 : 19 11 <5 <5 <5 <5  
SHELLY 14.0 20.0 23.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
CLIMAX 20.0 25.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
HIGH LANDING 12.0 12.5 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
CROOKSTON 15.0 23.0 25.0 : 6 13 <5 <5 <5 <5  
ABOVE WARREN 67.0 71.0 75.0 : 8 9 <5 <5 <5 <5  
ALVARADO 106.0 108.0 110.0 : 8 9 7 6 <5 <5  
HALLOCK 802.0 806.0 810.0 : 15 17 <5 8 <5 <5  
ROSEAU 16.0 18.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
NOTE: THE ROSEAU NUMBERS CONSIDER THE FLOW THRU ITS DIVERSION  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ------ ------ ------ : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES.....  
ABERCROMBIE 10.0 12.0 18.0 : 11 9 10 6 <5 <5  
VALLEY CITY 15.0 16.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
LISBON 15.0 17.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
KINDRED 16.0 19.0 20.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
WEST FARGO DVRSN 18.0 20.0 21.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
HARWOOD 884.0 886.0 891.0 : 7 5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
ENDERLIN 9.5 12.0 14.0 : 6 5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
MAPLETON 905.0 908.0 910.0 : 7 6 5 <5 <5 <5  
HILLSBORO 10.0 13.0 16.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
MINTO 6.0 8.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
GRAFTON 12.0 13.5 14.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
WALHALLA 11.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
NECHE 18.0 19.0 20.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND:  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (OUTLOOK FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION ( " " NORMAL CONDITIONS)  
FT = FEET (ABOVE GAGE ZERO DATUM)  
 
   
PROBABILITIES FOR RISING ABOVE LISTED RIVER STAGES
 
 
FROM 07/01/2018 TO 09/29/2018  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW, THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD AT THE LOCATIONS LISTED.  
 
INTERPRETATION AID: THE FLOOD STAGE FOR WAHPETON ON THE RED  
RIVER OF THE NORTH IS 11 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE  
THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 10.0 FEET AND ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE  
THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 14.2 FEET.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 07/01/2018 - 09/29/2018  
 
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH.....  
WAHPETON 9.1 9.1 9.3 10.0 12.5 14.2 15.7  
HICKSON 17.5 17.5 17.7 18.8 25.7 31.4 34.1  
FARGO 17.5 17.5 17.7 18.3 22.6 30.1 32.3  
HALSTAD 11.6 11.6 11.9 13.0 17.7 26.1 27.3  
GRAND FORKS 18.0 18.1 18.4 19.3 25.0 31.7 33.3  
OSLO 11.9 12.0 12.8 15.4 24.8 31.8 32.8  
DRAYTON 14.3 14.4 15.1 16.6 23.0 30.4 32.5  
PEMBINA 17.5 17.5 18.6 21.2 30.3 36.9 39.0  
 
MINNESOTA TRIBS: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
SOUTH FORK BUFFALO RIVER.....  
SABIN 10.0 10.1 10.1 11.8 13.0 14.4 15.2  
BUFFALO RIVER.....  
HAWLEY 4.5 4.5 4.5 5.4 6.2 7.3 10.2  
DILWORTH 8.6 8.7 8.8 11.6 14.7 18.7 20.9  
WILD RICE RIVER.....  
TWIN VALLEY 3.5 3.5 3.6 4.6 5.8 7.8 9.9  
HENDRUM 9.3 9.4 9.8 12.1 18.2 23.9 25.2  
MARSH RIVER.....  
SHELLY 4.6 4.7 4.7 5.2 8.8 11.8 13.0  
SAND HILL RIVER.....  
CLIMAX 5.4 5.5 6.4 7.7 10.0 14.3 15.6  
RED LAKE RIVER.....  
HIGH LANDING 1.6 1.9 2.2 3.8 5.4 8.6 9.5  
CROOKSTON 4.2 5.1 6.7 8.6 12.0 14.5 15.7  
SNAKE RIVER.....  
ABOVE WARREN 61.4 61.4 61.9 62.4 63.5 65.2 70.2  
ALVARADO 96.9 96.9 97.2 98.1 100.5 103.9 109.3  
TWO RIVERS RIVER.....  
HALLOCK 794.3 794.6 796.4 797.8 800.1 804.9 805.7  
ROSEAU RIVER..... CONSIDERING THE FLOW THRU THE ROSEAU DIVERSION  
ROSEAU 5.6 5.6 6.0 6.9 9.0 12.2 15.1  
 
NORTH DAKOTA TRIBS: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
WILD RICE RIVER.....  
ABERCROMBIE 2.4 2.4 2.5 3.8 6.7 12.3 17.9  
SHEYENNE RIVER.....  
VALLEY CITY 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.4 7.3 9.2 11.3  
LISBON 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.4 6.5 9.5 11.7  
KINDRED 4.4 4.4 4.4 5.3 8.0 11.5 14.0  
WEST FARGO DVRSN 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 12.9 15.2 16.7  
HARWOOD 871.3 871.3 871.4 872.6 875.2 878.3 885.7  
MAPLE RIVER.....  
ENDERLIN 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 5.6 7.7 10.1  
MAPLETON 894.9 894.9 894.9 895.6 899.0 902.9 908.0  
GOOSE RIVER.....  
HILLSBORO 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.4 4.8 10.7  
FOREST RIVER.....  
MINTO 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.1 3.4 4.7  
PARK RIVER.....  
GRAFTON 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.5 8.2 8.9 9.4  
PEMBINA RIVER.....  
WALHALLA 1.9 1.9 2.6 3.2 4.4 5.8 7.2  
NECHE 2.6 2.6 3.7 5.0 7.0 9.3 12.9  
   
PROBABILITIES FOR FALLING BELOW LISTED RIVER STAGES
 
 
FROM 07/01/2018 TO 09/29/2018  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW, THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR  
THE VALID TIME PERIOD AT THE LOCATIONS LISTED.  
 
INTERPRETATION AID: THE FLOOD STAGE FOR WAHPETON ON THE RED  
RIVER OF THE NORTH IS 11 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE  
THAT IT WILL FALL BELOW 4.8 FEET AND ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE  
THAT IT WILL FALL BELOW 4.3 FEET.  
   
..TABLE 3--NON-EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF NOT EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 07/01/2018 - 09/29/2018  
 
LOCATION 95% 50% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
RED RIVER OF THE NORTH.....  
WAHPETON 6.0 5.8 5.3 4.8 4.6 4.3 4.2  
HICKSON 11.7 11.5 11.1 10.7 10.6 10.3 10.3  
FARGO 15.1 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.3 14.2  
HALSTAD 6.3 5.9 5.0 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.6  
GRAND FORKS 16.4 16.3 15.9 15.7 15.6 15.3 15.2  
OSLO 8.1 7.9 7.2 6.8 6.5 5.2 4.9  
DRAYTON 12.5 12.3 11.9 11.7 11.4 11.2 11.1  
PEMBINA 11.9 11.5 10.1 9.1 8.1 7.0 6.7  
 
MINNESOTA TRIBS: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
SOUTH FORK BUFFALO RIVER.....  
SABIN 5.4 5.2 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.5  
BUFFALO RIVER.....  
HAWLEY 4.0 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4  
DILWORTH 4.6 4.0 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2  
WILD RICE RIVER.....  
TWIN VALLEY 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1  
HENDRUM 3.4 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1  
MARSH RIVER.....  
SHELLY 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8  
SAND HILL RIVER.....  
CLIMAX 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8  
RED LAKE RIVER.....  
HIGH LANDING 2.0 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6  
CROOKSTON 4.5 3.9 3.2 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.0  
SNAKE RIVER.....  
ABOVE WARREN 61.1 61.0 61.0 61.0 61.0 60.9 60.9  
ALVARADO 96.6 96.4 96.2 96.2 96.1 96.0 96.0  
TWO RIVERS RIVER.....  
HALLOCK 793.8 793.4 793.1 792.9 792.8 792.7 792.7  
ROSEAU RIVER..... CONSIDERING THE FLOW THRU THE ROSEAU DIVERSION  
ROSEAU 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0  
 
NORTH DAKOTA TRIBS: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
WILD RICE RIVER.....  
ABERCROMBIE 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4  
SHEYENNE RIVER.....  
VALLEY CITY 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7  
LISBON 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5  
KINDRED 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5  
WEST FARGO DVRSN 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.6  
HARWOOD 868.0 867.7 867.4 867.2 866.9 866.8 866.7  
MAPLE RIVER.....  
ENDERLIN 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9  
MAPLETON 894.9 894.8 894.7 894.6 894.5 894.5 894.5  
GOOSE RIVER.....  
HILLSBORO 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8  
FOREST RIVER.....  
MINTO 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2  
PARK RIVER.....  
GRAFTON 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1  
PEMBINA RIVER.....  
WALHALLA 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0  
NECHE 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6  
 
   
THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS
 
 
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK  
RIVER LEVELS OR CRESTS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST HYDROGRAPH RESULTS  
OF THE NWS COMMUNITY HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (CHPS). THE MODEL  
IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS STARTING AT CURRENT RIVER, SNOW, AND  
SOIL CONDITIONS USING OVER 60 YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND  
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS THAT WERE EXPERIENCED FOR THOSE PAST YEARS  
DURING THE TIMEFRAME OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THESE CRESTS CAN THEN  
BE RANKED FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST AND ASSIGNED AN EXCEEDANCE  
PROBABILITY. FOR EXAMPLE, FOR A SERIES OF 50 YEARS, THE LOWEST  
RANKED CREST HAS 49 CRESTS ABOVE IT. SINCE 95 PERCENT OF THE  
CRESTS ARE ABOVE IT, IT IS ASSIGNED A 95 PERCENT PROBABILITY  
OF EXCEEDANCE (POE).  
 
A YOUTUBE VIDEO ON "HOW TO INTERPRET RIVER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS" IS AT:  
 
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/WATCH?V=PSOEGVSNPV4  
 
THE PROBABILITIES CAN BE USED FOR RISK MANAGEMENT BY USING THEM AS  
AN INDICATION OF THE RANGE OF CRESTS THAT MAY BE EXPECTED DURING  
THE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.  
 
BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PEAK RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES, THE NWS IS  
CONTRIBUTING TO THE AREA'S IMPACTED-BASED DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES  
THAT HELP WITH LONG-RANGE FLOOD PLANNING AND RESPONSE READINESS.  
THIS OUTLOOK IS A PART OF NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S  
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS).  
 
THIS OUTLOOK WAS PRODUCED USING PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES  
FOR THE YEARS 1949 THROUGH 2012.  
 
   
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES
 
 
THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE  
EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE  
PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS, TOGETHER WITH EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN  
INTERPRETING THEM, ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS WEB  
PAGE AT:  
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS OR WEATHER.GOV/FGF  
 
THEN CLICK ON "RIVERS AND LAKES" ABOVE THE MAP.  
 
CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE RED  
RIVER OF THE NORTH AND DEVILS/STUMP LAKE BASINS ARE AVAILABLE ON  
OUR WEB SITE. ALSO, 7-DAY DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED  
AT LEAST ONCE A DAY WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS WILL BE AT OR  
ABOVE FLOOD DURING THAT PERIOD.  
 
REFER TO THE SEPARATE DEVILS LAKE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE LEVELS AND  
LOW-WATER NON-EXCEEDANCE LEVELS.  
 
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS, CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720.  
 
YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSGRANDFORKS  
AND ON TWITTER AT @NWSGRANDFORKS.  
 

 
WEATHER.GOV/FGF  
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