391  
FXUS63 KBIS 241117  
AFDBIS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
617 AM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH FOG PATCHES AROUND TIOGA,  
DICKINSON, HETTINGER, BISMARCK, AND JUST EAST OF OAKES.  
 
SATELLITE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ADVANCING TO THE SOUTHWEST, TOWARD  
NORTH DAKOTA, OUT OF THE SURFACE HIGH IN MANITOBA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
SHORT TERM ISSUES INCLUDE ICY SPOTS ON ROADS AND SIDEWALKS AND  
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.  
 
IN AREAS THAT HAD RAIN THURSDAY EVENING THAT WATER DID NOT DRY. AS  
TEMPERATURES FELL TO AND BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT THE WATER FROZE.  
 
PATCHES OF FOG FORMED OVERNIGHT IN THE MOIST AIR BEHIND THE RAIN  
BANDS AND IN THE CLEARING. DRIER AIR IN THE FORM OF LOWER DEW  
POINTS DID WORK IN FROM MANITOBA. FOR THAT REASON THE FOG WAS  
PATCHY. EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAD FOG THAT DRIER AIR WAS KEEPING AT  
LEAST SOME SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE / DEW POINT AND SO THE FOG WAS  
NOT DENSE, AT LEAST NOT AS OF THIS WRITING.  
 
HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ICY SPOTS AND THE  
FOG AND WILL REISSUE FOR FRESHNESS SOON.  
 
WILL EXPECT THE SUN TO WORK ITS MAGIC ON BOTH THE ICY PATCHES AND  
THE FOG AS THE MORNING WEARS ON.  
 
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH THAT RIDGING WORKS IN TODAY WITH  
SUBSIDENCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND THEN A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY TONIGHT.  
THIS WHILE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS WARM FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  
THAT MEANS A WIDE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY, WITH THE  
COOL POOL HIGH HOLDING TEMPERATURES BACK FROM MINOT THROUGH RUGBY,  
AND THE WARM FRONT PUSHING THE MONTANA BORDER COUNTIES WELL INTO  
THE 50S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER BUT WITH ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT  
THE LONG RANGE.  
 
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SHOW A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH CHANCES  
FOR PRECIPITATION EVERY OTHER DAY OR SO IN THE FAST FLOW. WITH  
THAT SAID THOUGH THE MAIN JET DYNAMICS ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
PART OF THE NATION AND THE WAVES DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH  
MINIMAL IMPACT ON NORTH DAKOTA. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS  
EXPECTED FROM EACH WAVE, LIKELY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH QPF,  
COMING AS MIXED PRECIPIATION AT NIGHTTIME AND RAIN DURING THE  
DAY. THIS WITH LOWS 25 TO 35 AND HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
IN AREAS THAT HAD RAIN LAST EVENING THAT WATER DID NOT DRY BUT  
RATHER FROZE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FELL BELOW FREEZING. EXPECT  
ICY PATCHES ON RUNWAYS ESPECIALLY AT KBIS AND KJMS UNTIL 24/15Z.  
 
PATCHY FOG FORMED OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE CLEARING SKY BEHIND  
THE RAIN BANDS. EXPECT PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND  
POSSIBLY MVFR CEILINGS, IMPROVING TO VFR BY 24/17Z.  
 
AFTER 24/17Z VFR FLYING WEATHER.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
LAKE DARLING DAM UPSTREAM OF MINOT INCREASED DISCHARGES TO 1200  
CUBIC FEET PER SECOND ON THURSDAY, AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN  
SOURIS RIVER RISES BETWEEN THE DAM AND MINOT. THE SOURIS AT  
FOXHOLM WENT INTO FLOOD AT MIDNIGHT WHEN THE LEVEL CROSSED THE  
DEFINITION OF MINOR FLOOD THERE, 1573.0 FEET. AS OF THIS WRITING  
THE LEVEL WAS 1573.08 FEET. ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN THE AMOUNT OF  
WATER BEING RELEASED AT THE DAM ARE EXPECTED IN THE COMING DAYS.  
 
GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS AND CLICK ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES"  
TAB TO SEE A HYDROGRAPH.  
 

 
   
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...JPM  
SHORT TERM...JPM  
LONG TERM...JPM  
AVIATION...JPM  
HYDROLOGY...JPM  
 
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