968  
FXUS63 KBIS 161459  
AFDBIS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
959 AM CDT WED AUG 16 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT WED AUG 16 2017  
 
WILL LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE. PATCHY DENSE FOG REMAINS  
OVER BILLINGS AND MCKENZIE COUNTIES, ALONG THE LITTLE MISSOURI.  
ALSO IN A NARROW BAND FROM AROUND GLEN ULLIN TO MINOT. THESE AREAS  
WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH NEARLY  
FULL SUN. ELSEWHERE FOG HAS BURNED OFF. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES AT  
THIS TIME.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 AM CDT WED AUG 16 2017  
 
DENSE FOG ADVISORY SET TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM CDT. VISIBILITIES HAVE  
IMPROVED ALONG THE EASTERN AND WESTERN EDGES AND WILL CANCEL THE  
ADVISORY HERE. THIS INCLUDES GOLDEN VALLEY, SLOPE AND BOWMAN  
COUNTIES IN THE WEST AND ROLETTE, PIERCE AND WELLS COUNTIES IN THE  
EAST.  
 
THERE ARE STILL QUITE A FEW AREAS, INCLUDING HETTINGER, GLEN ULLIN  
AND MINOT ARE AT 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE WITH AREA WEBCAMS INDICATING  
SOME DENSE FOG AS WELL. WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY ANOTHER HOUR FOR  
THESE AREAS.  
 
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED AUG 16 2017  
 
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG CONTINUES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO THE NORTH  
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH A  
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM CDT. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT  
FORECAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED AUG 16 2017  
 
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER BY SIGNIFICANT RAINS IS  
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL  
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A  
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES VALLEY  
TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN AND BECOMES VERTICALLY  
STACKED ACROSS MINNESOTA. ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE  
TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED AUG 16 2017  
 
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  
 
MIN RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE LOW 20S THURSDAY THROUGH  
SATURDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. BREEZY CONDITIONS  
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS FAR  
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN  
RECENTLY.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH IN BY THE END OF THE  
WEEK. GENERALLY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY APPEAR DRY. A SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY  
BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST TO  
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THEN ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS  
SUNDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY THROUGH  
TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT WED AUG 16 2017  
 
MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION FOR THE 12Z TAFS INCLUDE WIDESPREAD VERY  
LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN DENSE FOG KDIK-KMOT. OTHER AREAS OF LOW  
IFR/IFR KBIS-KJMS. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR DURING  
TEH DAY TODAY.  
 

 
   
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR  
NDZ003-010-011-018>021-032>034-041-042-044.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...TWH  
SHORT TERM...AJ  
LONG TERM...AJ  
AVIATION...TWH  
 
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