522
FXUS63 KBIS 190316
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1016 PM CDT THU APR 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY, ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
(A 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE, HIGHEST CHANCES NORTHWEST,
CENTRAL, AND EASTERN ND).
- PEAK NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 45 MPH TODAY, WITH A
40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AGAIN FRIDAY
(MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH).
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER AND WEAKER WINDS. A 40 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT THU APR 18 2024
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS A DECENT SHOWER WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE BISMARCK MANDAN AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, BUT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. WINDS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, THEREFORE THE WIND ADVISORY
WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP IN THE
NORTHWEST AROUND THE LOWER 20S. NO OTHER UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT THU APR 18 2024
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH WIND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF STATE. SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE BROUGHT FORTH SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU APR 18 2024
CURRENTLY, LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA. STRONG GRADIENT FORCING,
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS, AND A DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER UPWARDS TO 8-10K
FT AGL RESULTS IN ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG WEST/NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. PEAK GUSTS HAVE MAINLY BEEN IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE,
THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A FEW PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IN OUR
MORE HIGH WIND PRONE AREAS TODAY. THUS THE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES WITH THIS PRODUCT
ISSUANCE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUE THANKS TO STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING AS
EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. SOUTHWEST ND HAS SEEN A DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS
ENDING THERE, AS DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THIS AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC RIDGE DEVELOPING INTO EASTERN MONTANA.
WILL MAINTAIN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WORDING IN THE HWO FOR
THIS AREA AS WE STILL EXPECT A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN MIN RH VALUES WILL NEAR 25 PERCENT COUPLED WITH THE STRONG
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
I OPTED TO MAINTAIN 20-40 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
WITH MODELS SHOWING ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATING THROUGH,
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES BEING MAINTAINED UNTIL THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES MID TO LATE EVENING VIA BUFKIT SOUNDING
ANALYSIS. WILL THEN KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
SOUTHWARD. WINDS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH ABOUT 01-02Z,
DIMINISHING SOME THEREAFTER AS THE DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECREASES. STILL WILL REMAIN BREEZY, WITH EVEN AN INCREASE IN
WINDS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF CAA DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS OUR LOCAL REGION.
ANOTHER WINDY, COOL, AND CLOUDY DAY IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY, ALONG
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC SETUP REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME WITH DECENT LAPSE
RATES AND ADDITIONAL WAVES ROTATING THROUGH. WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG OR OVER SUCH A LARGE AREA, AS WINDS ALOFT SHOULD BE
WEAKER LIMITING THE GUST POTENTIAL AT THE SURFACE, THOUGH
GRADIENT FORCING REMAINS. RIGHT NOW I DON'T ANTICIPATE WIND
HEADLINES FOR FRIDAY BEING THE GUST POTENTIAL IS LOWER, BUT
WILL LET THE MID SHIFT TONIGHT MAKE THAT CALL, AS SOME AREAS
WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST BY THIS COMING WEEKEND,
AND WE TRANSITION BACK TO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME, WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER AND BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR MID/LATE APRIL, ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY WHEN A
S/WV RIDGE AND WARM FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPS WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. MAINLY DRY THIS WEEKEND, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURNING LATE THIS WEEKEND (SUN NIGHT) INTO MONDAY AS STRONG
S/WV/CLOSED LOW/CLIPPER SYSTEM DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS. NBM POPS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM, NOW
MAXING OUT NEAR 75%, WITH WIDESPREAD QPF FROM A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
WE DRY OUT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 60S BY MID-
WEEK (WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT THU APR 18 2024
CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
THIS EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN SLIGHT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUES
TO DIMINISH BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JOHNSON
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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