111  
FXUS63 KBIS 230605  
AFDBIS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
1205 AM CST FRI FEB 23 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST THU FEB 22 2018  
 
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND EARLY THIS  
MORNING. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON POPS THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MADE ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE AS SNOW  
EXITS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.  
 
TO THE NORTH AND WEST, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHWEST ND. THIS HAS ALLOWED  
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FORECAST MINS. WILL LOWER FORECAST LOWS  
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. UPSTREAM  
STRATUS OVER SASKATCHEWAN MAY INHIBIT TEMPERATURE DROP OVER THE  
FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL A FEW  
MORE DEGREES. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CST THU FEB 22 2018  
 
SNOW CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN  
LINE WITH GOING FORECAST. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO PULL LOW SNOW CHANCES  
BACK A BIT TO THE WEST AS RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY  
THAT HAS A CHANCE TO MAKE IT INTO BISMARCK. WITH THAT SAID, THE  
CHANCES DO REMAIN LOW AND AMOUNTS WOULD BE MINIMAL. UPDATES HAVE  
BEEN SENT.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CST THU FEB 22 2018  
 
GOING FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AS SNOW CONTINUES TO  
DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU FEB 22 2018  
 
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SNOW  
CHANCES/AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.  
 
CURRENTLY, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS ESTABLISHED OVER  
THE WESTERN US, WITH UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD  
FROM THE TROUGH BASE OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA INTO THE CENTRAL US  
PLAINS. MEANWHILE A SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS  
A POTENT SURFACE LOW CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO.  
 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER COLORADO AND THE STREAMING  
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS, A LARGE  
AREA OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, AND SNOW CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE  
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL US PLAINS AND WILL REACH EASTERN PORTIONS OF  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, INCLUDING THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA TODAY  
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL  
EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND  
TONIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT IN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE FAR  
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF ND. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE LIGHT SNOW IS  
FORECAST TO REACH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND AND THE JAMES RIVER BASIN.  
 
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS (UP TO AROUND 3 INCHES) WILL BE OVER EASTERN  
DICKEY COUNTY, WITH AROUND AN INCH FROM FORT YATES THROUGH  
JAMESTOWN. LITTLE OR NO SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM SELFRIDGE TO BISMARCK  
AND CARRINGTON.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU FEB 22 2018  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EAST,  
WITH ITS AXIS REACHING THE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND  
CROSSING THE PLAINS STATES, INCLUDING THE DAKOTAS, ON SATURDAY.  
EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG  
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MANDAN/BISMARCK TO CARRINGTON/JAMESTOWN.  
AMOUNTS OF ONLY AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED IN THE  
LAMOURE/MCINTOSH/DICKEY COUNTY AREA, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH AND  
WEST.  
 
THEREAFTER, THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE  
OVER THE DAKOTAS AS ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST  
COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS LONGWAVE  
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT WEEK,  
KEEPING THE STORM TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF ND. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE  
NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO FOR NEXT WEEK, SO LOW  
CONFIDENCE AND NO MENTION OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  
 
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE  
SEASONABLE, WITH NO ARCTIC INTRUSIONS SEEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF  
NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE IN THE  
20S TO LOWER 30S, AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND  
TEENS ABOVE ZERO FOR LATE FEBRUARY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST THU FEB 22 2018  
 
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ND INTO  
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY END BEFORE 12 UTC, ALLOWING  
CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR AT THE KJMS TERMINAL. ELSEWHERE, AN AREA  
OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OUT OF  
SASKATCHEWAN AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION AND A CONSENSUS OF RAPID-  
REFRESH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THEY WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL  
AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST ND BY 12 UTC. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT KMOT  
WILL THUS EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WAS TOO  
LOW TO INCLUDE A PREDOMINANT CEILING IN THE KISN TAF WITH THE 06  
UTC FORECAST RELEASE. FINALLY, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS  
SOUTHWEST ND THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.  
 

 
   
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...TWH  
SHORT TERM...JV  
LONG TERM...JV  
AVIATION...CJS  
 
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