504  
FXUS63 KBIS 120526  
AFDBIS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
1126 PM CST MON DEC 11 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST MON DEC 11 2017  
 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO  
ADVERTISE STRATUS FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK AND FROM ROLLA SOUTH TO  
ASHLEY. THIS IS ALONG AND EAST OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS PROPAGATING  
FROM WEST TO EAST, BEST DEPICTED ON THE NAM12. AS WARM AIR  
ADVECTION INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT, THE STRATUS WILL  
ERODE AS IT SLIDES INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE COLDER TEMPERATURES  
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE BOTTOMING OUT AS THE STRATUS  
ARRIVES, THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES THEREAFTER. CURRENT FORECAST  
REMAINS ON TRACK.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CST MON DEC 11 2017  
 
AS ANTICIPATED, CLOUDS ARE PLAYING A LARGE ROLE IN HOUR TO HOUR  
TEMPERATURE CHANGES TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOW  
TEMPERATURES NOW FORECAST DOWN TO 10 ABOVE IN THE JAMES RIVER  
VALLEY WHERE CLEAR SKIES WILL HOLD FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. TO THE  
WEST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES IN  
THE MORE CLOUDY MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CST MON DEC 11 2017  
 
WHILE SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST THE MODELS  
BRING CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL RH BACK INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. SO  
HAVE LOWERED CLOUD COVER CENTRAL AND EAST THIS EVENING THEN  
RAISED SKY COVER BACK UP LATER. THIS WILL CREATE A TEMPERATURE  
PROBLEM EAST AS THE CLOUD FREE AREAS ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES FALL  
RAPIDLY TO THE FORECAST LOWS. LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES EAST ABOUT  
5 TO 7 DEGREES TONIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPERATURES  
REBOUND A BIT BY MORNING AS CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
 
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST MON DEC 11 2017  
 
NO BIG HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MILD TEMPERATURES  
RETURN FOR TUESDAY WEST AND CENTRAL.  
 
CURRENTLY, TRAILING EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW  
ALOFT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BEHIND THE CLIPPER  
FROM LAST NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ALL BUT  
DONE OVER MY WESTERN COUNTIES AS FORCING EXITS THE REGION.  
GRADIENT FORCING CONTINUES TO QUICKLY DECREASE AS WEAK HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS THUS CONTINUE TO  
WIND DOWN. CAA STRATUS STARTING TO BREAK UP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL  
CANADA SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA.  
 
FOR TONIGHT: WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES FROM WEST TO EAST  
TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT SLIDES EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. MOSTLY  
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL TREND SCATTERED TONIGHT WEST INTO CENTRAL,  
WITH ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN  
PORTIONS OF THE STATE AFTER 03-06Z AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK  
MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND PRODUCES MID TO UPPER LEVEL  
CLOUDS. INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH THE WAA AND EXPECTED CLOUDS,  
INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.  
 
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY  
TUESDAY. MID LEVEL S/WV WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN  
BY 00Z WED, WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER  
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA AND A WARM FRONT DRAPED NORTH TO SOUTH  
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE TUES AFT. THIS WILL PUT WESTERN  
AND CENTRAL ND IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO  
THE 30S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER  
VALLEY, 40S CENTRAL AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. BOUNDARY LAYER  
TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT EVEN WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS, THOUGH LACK  
OF GOOD MIXING VIA BUFKIT ANALYSIS SO OPTED TO MAINTAIN CLOSE TO  
THE INHERITED FORECAST.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
 
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST MON DEC 11 2017  
 
MID LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND  
SOUTHWESTERN ND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW  
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. CAA  
WITH THIS CLIPPER ON THE WEAK SIDE BUT STILL EXPECTING AN UPTICK  
IN WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SOME LIGHT QPF IS  
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE,  
THOUGH HIGH RES MODELS MAINLY DRY. A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE  
WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES AND  
ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE NEXT  
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. TEMPERATURES COOL FOR WEDNESDAY AS A  
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO REGION.  
 
BARRAGE OF CLIPPERS CONTINUES WITH THE NEXT WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT,  
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH  
THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES 4-5 DAYS OUT. SAFE TO SAY EACH WILL  
BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS, AND  
LARGER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS WITH WAA & CAA.  
 
BOTH THE 12Z GFS & ECMWF NOW MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVE NORTHWEST  
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLIER RUNS OF THESE MODELS WERE  
ADVERTISING MORE OF ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING WHICH AT THE  
MOMENT IS GONE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST MON DEC 11 2017  
 
MVFR CIGS FROM KMOT TO KBIS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO KJMS FROM NOW  
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. VFR CIGS WILL COMMENCE AT KBIS BY 09Z TUESDAY,  
VFR CIGS AT KMOT BY 08Z, AND VFR CIGS AT KJMS BY 13Z. ELSEWHERE,  
VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH  
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. INCREASING WEST  
TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BETWEEN 20KT AND 30KT WILL EVOLVE 00Z-06Z  
WEDNESDAY. PRIOR TO THE STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE, THERE WILL BE  
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KISN/KMOT/KBIS.  
 

 
   
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...KS  
SHORT TERM...NH  
LONG TERM...NH  
AVIATION...KS  
 
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