500  
FXUS63 KBIS 191430  
AFDBIS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
930 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018  
 
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM SMOKE IS AGAIN  
BECOMING MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SO WILL ADD  
AREAS OF SMOKE BACK IN. OTHERWISE COOLER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND  
THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
GRADUALLY END SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHER THAN UPDATING POPS BASED ON LATEST  
RADAR AND POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. FIRST  
GLIMPSE OF VISIBLE SATELLITE WITH SURFACE OBS SEEMS TO INDICATE  
SMOKE MAY BE CLEARING SLOWER THAN INDICATED. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO  
RE-VISIT SMOKE CLEARING DURING THE DAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018  
 
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SMOKE WILL BE THE MAIN  
FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  
 
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN WYOMING WITH AN  
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW FROM AROUND ELLENDALE ND TO PIERRE SD.  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM  
NORTH CENTRAL SD INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SCATTERED STRONGER  
STORMS LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE TRENDED  
DOWNWARD WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO WITH INCREASING CIN. COULD  
STILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE GREATEST  
THREAT REMAINING THIS MORNING SURFACE WOULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS STORMS TRACK  
ACROSS THE SAME AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER  
ROUND OF STORMS AGAIN LATER TODAY.  
 
SMOKE WAS QUITE THICK OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND BEHIND  
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. STRONGER  
NORTHERLY FLOW IS HELPING TO MIX THE SMOKE DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE OVER NORTHERN ND INTO  
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE LATEST RAP/HRRR/CANADIAN SMOKE MODELS  
DO INDICATE A BREAK IN THE SMOKE LATER TODAY WITH SMOKE CLEARING  
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.  
 
MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S, AND SOME 60S  
OVER THE SOUTHERN JRV WHERE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN  
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.  
 
QUITE COOL TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018  
 
COOL CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT  
AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S MONDAY  
AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH  
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN COOLING  
SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE  
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018  
 
RAIN SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD AT  
KJMS, LASTING ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE MVFR VISIBILITIES  
AT TIMES THIS MORNING IN SMOKE WITH A BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND.  
SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.  
WINDS DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...WAA  
SHORT TERM...TWH  
LONG TERM...TWH  
AVIATION...TWH  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab ND Page Main Text Page