040  
FXUS63 KBIS 191233  
AFDBIS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
733 AM CDT THU APR 19 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 731 AM CDT THU APR 19 2018  
 
EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FURTHER EAST INTO BURLEIGH, SHERIDAN,  
WELLS, MCHENRY AND PIERCE COUNTIES AS WEBCAMS AND SURFACE WEATHER  
STATIONS ARE SHOWING VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO IN DENSE FOG.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU APR 19 2018  
 
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF NORTH  
DAKOTA THROUGH 11 AM CDT.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT THU APR 19 2018  
 
MINOR UPDATE TO EXPAND FOG ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA  
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE VISIBILITY  
DOWN TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 19 2018  
 
WIDESPREAD FOG IS THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM.  
 
LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH A LOWERING STRATUS DECK IS LEADING TO  
WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL  
NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH  
THE MORNING HOURS.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT  
AND PLENTY OF SUN WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S  
ACROSS THE AREA. REMAINING SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY MELT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 19 2018  
 
A PATTERN CHANGE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER WILL  
OVERTAKE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND.  
 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK VERY NICE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S  
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR FIRE CONCERNS POSSIBLE  
SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND BREEZY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH.  
 
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WITH THE PRESENCE OF A FRONT NEARBY SUNDAY  
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE NOTICEABLY HIGHER  
THAN WHAT A LOT OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MODEL SNOW  
DEPTH VALUES REMAIN TO HIGH COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONS, WHICH IS  
KEEPING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES TOO LOW. IN ADDITION, BIAS-  
CORRECTED MODEL GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD AS WELL, SINCE THIS DATA IS  
CORRECTED BASED OFF THE COLD PATTERN WE'VE BEEN IN LATELY AND  
DOESN'T CORRELATE WITH THE WARMER PATTERN CHANGE. FOR THIS REASON  
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED OVER MOST GUIDANCE VALUES.  
 
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST  
ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, LEADING TO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND  
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.  
CONDITIONS LOOK TO DRY BACK OUT FOR WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE TRIES TO  
BUILD BACK IN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT THU APR 19 2018  
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS THROUGH  
THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. HAZARDS TO AVIATION FOCUS ON LIFR CONDITIONS  
IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS KISN-KMOT-KDIK THROUGH 15Z, THEN CONDITIONS  
IMPROVING TO VFR THEREAFTER.  
 

 
   
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR  
NDZ001>003-009>013-017>023-032>035.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...TK  
SHORT TERM...AJ  
LONG TERM...AJ  
AVIATION...WAA  
 
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