595  
FXUS63 KBIS 271728  
AFDBIS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND  
1228 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017  
 
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR DATA FEEL THE RETURNS ON RADAR ARE  
LARGELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND EAST OF BISMARCK. OTHERWISE  
UPDATED THE NEXT 18 HOURS WITH THE LATEST CONSHORT GUIDANCE WHICH  
BREAKS THE CAP AND BEGINS CONVECTION AROUND 6-7 PM ACROSS SOUTH  
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AGREES WITH THE LATEST RAP SOUNDING  
DATA FOR BIS.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 AM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017  
 
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH  
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. PLACED THE SHOWERS FURTHER  
WEST WHERE RADAR SHOWS SOME WEAK CONVECTION. WINDS PICKING UP IN  
THE VICINITY OF THE SHOWERS AS MIXING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE  
OCCURS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017  
 
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY CHANGE NEEDED WAS TO  
ADJUST WIND SPEEDS UP A BIT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017  
 
MAIN IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. IN THE NEAR TERM WILL MONITOR WEAKENING CONVECTION OVER  
EASTERN MT TO SEE IF LOW POPS WARRANTED FOR THE EARLY AM.  
OTHERWISE, SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE  
TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE  
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL MT WILL REACH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AT PRIME  
HEATING. MAIN DETERRENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE  
RESPECTABLE CAPPING WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S WHICH  
WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT THE  
EARLIEST. FOR THIS WILL LIMIT ANY POPS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON IN  
VCNTY OF BOUNDARY. WARM COLUMN IN PLACE AND WITH BREEZY TO WINDY  
CONDITIONS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER THROUGH THE 80S TO  
AROUND 90. COULD SEE SOME LOWER RH VALUES HOWEVER DEWPOINTS SHOULD  
BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON LIMITING FIRE WEATHER  
CONCERNS HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR.  
 
MODEL SOUNDINGS ERODE CAPPING THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00-03Z.  
ALTHOUGH SHEAR SOMEWHAT LIMITED, INSTABILITY AND CAPE SUFFICIENT  
SO THAT A STRONG/SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
PORTION OF THE STATE. WHAT CONVECTION DOES GET GOING THIS EVENING  
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WORKING IN  
BEHIND BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT MIXING WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OUT TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING,  
LEAVING COOLER, DRIER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MORE  
COMFORTABLE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S, BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE  
BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED AND LOW LEVEL  
JET MIXING DOWN GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT SOME LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE  
RUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CONTINUING TO  
REINFORCE DRIER AIR, BUT RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN BRINGING SOME  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  
 
BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA MATURES AND BEGINS  
TO PHASE IN WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM  
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AS THIS SYSTEM MATURES, IT WILL REMAIN IN THE  
VICINITY OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND WILL BRING SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THIS SYSTEM  
REMAINS IN THE AREA. WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY AND SOME  
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT WEAK BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR, THERE IS  
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT, FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST  
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS PERHAPS NOT EVEN REACHING THE 70S NORTH  
OF INTERSTATE 94.  
 
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY SEE SOME REMAINING WRAP AROUND  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY, BUT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS  
SUGGEST A DRIER PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS TRAILING SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO  
INCREASE SUNDAY AGAIN AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH TO THE  
SOUTH AND A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  
 
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS  
ONLY REACHING THE 60S AND 70S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT  
RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017  
 
AT NOON CDT A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN  
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AN ASSOCIATED  
COLD FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM  
WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS  
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE FROM KBIS-KJMS BETWEEN 00-06Z. OTHERWISE VFR  
EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...WAA  
SHORT TERM...VOELKER  
LONG TERM...BP  
AVIATION...WAA  
 
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