551  
FXUS63 KFGF 161435  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
935 AM CDT WED AUG 16 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT WED AUG 16 2017  
 
MAIN RAIN BAND LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN TIER NW MN COUNTIES  
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.  
DELAYED HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS MAIN RAIN BAND STILL  
IN EAST CENTRAL SD. NO OTHER CHANGES.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT WED AUG 16 2017  
 
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE REGION  
WINDING DOWN. SHOWERS ARE PRETTY SPOTTY ELSEWHERE, AND REALLY  
DON'T EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE  
AFTERNOON, WHEN THEY GET MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN  
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THERE HAS BEEN A  
LITTLE FOG, MAINLY ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE REGION INTO THE NORTHERN  
RED RIVER VALLEY. ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST JUST FOR THE NEXT FEW  
HOURS. 06Z NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA  
PICKING UP THE MOST RAIN TODAY/TONIGHT. BOTH HAVE SOME HIGHER  
BULLSEYES OF RAINFALL TOO, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z RUNS NOT ALL  
THAT HIGH. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS COME UP WITH.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED AUG 16 2017  
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND WHERE AND WHEN IT WILL FALL REMAIN THE MAIN  
FORECAST CHALLENGE. TO START OFF, RAINFALL SO FAR EARLY THIS  
MORNING HAS MAINLY BEEN RESTRICTED TO THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. THE  
KMVX RADAR IS ESTIMATING ABOUT 0.50 TO 1 INCH FOR A GOOD PORTION  
OF THAT REGION, WITH EVEN SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. AT THIS  
TIME YESTERDAY, THE MODELS WERE SHOWING THAT FALLING ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. MEANWHILE, THERE  
HAS REALLY BEEN HARDLY ANYTHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO  
WEST CENTRAL MN. THE DEEP CONVECTION DOWN OVER NEBRASKA HAS BEEN  
PRODUCING THE REALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS  
TWO SEGMENTS TO THE LOW LEVEL JET, ONE FEEDING INTO THE SHOWERS  
OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND THE OTHER INTO THE CONVECTION IN  
NEBRASKA. THROUGH SUNRISE INTO THE MORNING HOURS TODAY, EXPECT A  
WEAKENING TREND TO THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY, BUT  
SPORADIC SHOWERS ALSO OCCURRING MOST EVERYWHERE.  
 
GOING FORWARD TO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, THERE SEEMS TO BE A  
GENERAL SLOW DOWN TO THE SYSTEM. THE 700MB LOW DEEPENS OVER  
EASTERN SD BY 18Z WED, THEN TRACKS SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST INTO EAST  
CENTRAL MN THROUGH 12Z THU. THE SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS  
SHOW STRONGER CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AROUND SIOUX FALLS SD BY  
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN TRACKING IT EAST-NORTHEAST INTO MN. THIS  
SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD STEADIER SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER  
MAINLY INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL  
MN. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE 700MB LOW, THERE LOOKS TO BE A  
PROLONGED PERIOD OF THIS STEADIER PCPN FOR MAINLY WEST CENTRAL  
MN. THEREFORE THIS LOOKS TO BE A LONGER DURATION EVENT THAT IT DID  
AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. PCPN AMOUNTS FOR WEST CENTRAL MN FROM  
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM 1.00 TO 1.50  
INCHES. MUCH LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR OTHER AREAS. SO LOOKING AT  
TOTALS FROM WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW THROUGH WHAT IS EXPECTED  
TODAY/TONIGHT, THE LEAST AMOUNTS MAY BE FROM VALLEY CITY ND UP  
TOWARD HALLOCK MN. MEANWHILE, THE DEVILS LAKE REGION RECEIVED THE  
DECENT AMOUNTS LAST EVENING AND WEST CENTRAL MN UP TOWARD BEMIDJI  
SHOULD GET THE MOST TODAY/TONIGHT. SINCE BOTH THESE AREAS DID NOT  
GET THE HIGHER END AMOUNTS FROM THE PAST WEEKEND SYSTEM, IT SHOULD  
NOT RESULT IN ANY PONDING/FLOODING ISSUES. IT WILL ALSO FALL OVER  
A PROLONGED PERIOD, NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY AT ANY ONE TIME. IT  
LOOKS LIKE CLEARING WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN FA TONIGHT, AND  
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE RECENT RAINFALL, THERE MAY BE SOME FOG.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED AUG 16 2017  
 
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON THU,  
WITH CLEARING MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED  
HOWEVER, AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD IN SOME LOWER END  
PCPN CHANCES FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI. INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL THU  
NIGHT, BUT SOME TRIES TO CREEP INTO MAINLY THE EASTERN FA ON FRI,  
WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME THUNDER BACK TO THE AREA.  
 
FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS WARMER AND DRY,  
OWING TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A  
DRY SFC BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT  
NIGHT OR EARLY SUN BUT THE NEXT THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD  
OFF UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE ON MON. THE GFS AND ECMWF  
CLOSELY AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WITH THE HEART OF  
THE ACTIVITY LIKELY TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION ON  
MON. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR TUE.  
 
TEMPS WILL RISE TO THE LOW AND MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE EASING  
BACK JUST A BIT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT WED AUG 16 2017  
 
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ELIMINATE THE RAINFALL AT KDVL, BUT THE OTHER  
TAF SITES WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  
KFAR AND KBJI WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH RAINFALL FOR THE  
LONGEST. NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN THAT KFAR AND KBJI WILL BE DEALING  
WITH HEAVIER RAIN, AS IT COULD STAY JUST SOUTH OF BOTH SITES.  
OTHERWISE, MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE MVFR RANGE FOR  
THE MOST PART. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FIRST AT KDVL, SO WITH LIGHT  
WINDS AND THE RECENT RAINFALL, THERE MAY BE SOME FOG BY THURSDAY  
MORNING.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...VOELKER  
SHORT TERM...GODON  
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON  
AVIATION...GODON  
 
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