230  
FXUS63 KFGF 191144  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
644 AM CDT THU APR 19 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT THU APR 19 2018  
 
FOG HAS NOT BEEN EXPANDING EAST INTO THE DEVILS LAKE REGION AS  
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, SO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MATCH THESE  
CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU APR 19 2018  
 
JUST HAVE SOME THIN CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS  
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN, TEMPERATURES ARE STAYING PRETTY MILD,  
COMPARED TO WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN LATELY. SEEING SOME FOG TRYING TO  
CREEP INTO THE FAR WESTERN FA, SO WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG THERE  
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT QUITE A BIT SUN  
AGAIN TODAY. HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH  
TEMPERATURES TODAY, WHICH MEANS THERE MAY BE A STRAY 60 DEGREE  
READING SOMEWHERE. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG  
FORMATION, SO DID NOT MENTION ANY AT THIS POINT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU APR 19 2018  
 
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND TO  
START NEXT WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 50S ON FRIDAY WARMING INTO  
THE 60S AND POSSIBLY A 70 OR TWO THIS WEEKEND. 500MB FLOW BRINGS A  
STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS  
TUESDAY. WITH IT CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES  
MOVE INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE LOWER WITH THE 50S FOR THE MIDDLE  
OF THE WEEK. THE RAIN MAY EVEN MIX WITH SOME SNOW EARLY TUESDAY. EC  
AND GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THE MOST LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS  
THE FA RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH A LOW CHANCE UP  
TO AN INCH, AS ONE MEMBER OF GEFS SUITE REMAINS HIGH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT THU APR 19 2018  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED APR 18 2018  
 
SNOW MELT IS CONTRIBUTING TO RESPONSE/RISES TO RED RIVER AND  
TRIBUTARIES, WITH MINOR ICE JAMS AT A FEW RIVER POINTS. MINOR  
FLOODING (OR LESS) IS CURRENTLY FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF  
OF THE VALLEY, BUT THERE IS SOME CONCERN FURTHER NORTH (MAINLY  
OSLO) WHERE ICE IN RIVER MAY LEAD TO HIGHER RISES AS TRIBUTARIES  
EMPTY INTO THE MAIN CHANNEL. MODERATE FLOOD STAGE AT OSLO IS  
CURRENTLY FORECAST BY SATURDAY EVENING, AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE  
MONITORED AS ICE CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE (HOPEFULLY FOR THE  
BETTER). LUCKILY, WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED OVER  
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS ANY MAJOR FLOODING FROM RAPID RUNOFF IS  
NOT EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...GODON  
SHORT TERM...GODON  
LONG TERM...JK  
AVIATION...GODON  
HYDROLOGY...DJR  
 
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