751
FXUS63 KFGF 041957
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
257 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
SHORT TERM
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IS PCPN. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO N MN...WITH A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN SW MB. WHEN LOOKING AT THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST
PART...TIMING ISSUES CREATE LARGE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES. THUS...ENDED
UP LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND NAM MODELS FOR POPS AND THE ADJMAVBC
FOR TEMPS.
WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST AREA RADARS...THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT WAS OVER NE ND EARLIER HAS BEEN WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE SHRA/TSRA IN CENTRAL ND STILL REMAIN...ALTHOUGH THEY
AREA ALSO WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE SE. AS A RESULT...ENDED UP KEEPING
A SCHC FOR TSRA IN DVL AREA THIS EVENING...WITH EVERYWHERE ELSE DRY.
ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION...IF THE DRIER
AIR IN PLACE IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NW MN DOES NOT KILL THEM
OFF FIRST.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE N PLAINS FOR SUN...
WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
TSRA IN THE DVL AREA SUN AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA ON MON...A BETTER ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INTO THE N PLAINS...AS THE 500MB RIDGE PASSES AND THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM NW TO SW. THE END RESULT IS INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PCPN STARTING MON NIGHT IN DVL AREA AND PROGRESSING E
INTO E ND ON TUE.
LONG TERM
/TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
12Z GFS A BIT SLOWER AND FLATTER THAN PREVIOUS 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
RUNS...BUT STILL INDICATING A STORMIER MIDWEEK PERIOD AND DRIER END
OF WEEK AS HAS BEEN FORECAST TREND. CURRENT GFS PACKAGE HAS A FAIRLY
ROBUST SW FLOW PATTERN LEANING INTO THE N PLAINS LATE TUE INTO
WED...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WED AND THU AS SFC
LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THREAT FOR SIG PCPN
AND SVR WX INDICATED IN HPC/SPC OUTLOOKS STILL SEEMS REASONABLE.
AVIATION
WEAK WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS NW MN THRU LATE AFTERNOON IS SHOWING
STEADILY DISSIPATING TREND AS IT BEATS AGAINST DRIER AIRMASS IN
NC MN. MEANWHILE...SUSTAINED CONVECTION IN CENTRAL ND TRACKING SW
ATTM TOWARDS MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD. EXPECT ISOLD
CONVECTION YET TO DEVELOP INTO DVL BASIN THRU LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...FOCUSED ON WEAK SFC TROF CURRENTLY WEST OF A YBR-
ROL-BIS LINE. THEN...CLOUDS DISSIPATING AFT SUNSET.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NG/GUST
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