944
FXUS63 KFGF 080932
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
332 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
SHORT TERM [TODAY - TUE NIGHT]
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DETERMINING THE CHANCES AND
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...IN WHICH
MODELS HAVE FINALLY REACHED SOME AGREEMENT. LEANED ON THE 06Z
NAM...MAINLY BECAUSE THE GFS SEEMED TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THE MOST. PASSING MID LEVEL VORTICITY THROUGH THIS AREA WILL ALSO
HELP AID THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...BECAUSE SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUCH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...THINK ONLY
SPRINKLES ARE LIKELY AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...DOWNPLAYED ANY
PRECIPITATION. DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOW 50S.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE VALLEY MONDAY...AND
HELP KEEP THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY....WITH MIXING UP TO ABOUT 940 MB.
THE WINDS ALOFT AT 925 MB SHOULD INCREASE TO 25 TO 40 KNOTS BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS SHOULD NOT FULLY TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE...WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TUESDAY ALSO
LOOKS RATHER DRY...PARTLY DUE TO THE MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
THE EXPECTED SUNNY SKIES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD HAVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
LONG TERM [WED - THU]
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THURSDAY FOR A
PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM/DGEX ALL INDICATE THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE VALLEY
AROUND THE SAME TIME. ALL THE MODELS HIGHLIGHT THE NORTHERN VALLEY
AND FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
PRECIPITATION. AFTER DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
50S...THE PASSING COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE FRIDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO THE 40S. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS...MAINLY SOUTHERLY TODAY AND BECOMING WESTERLY TONIGHT.
AVIATION
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z MON. A BKN TO OVC VFR
CLOUD DECK WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. FAR AND BJI
COULD SEE PERIODIC SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. THE MAIN POINT IS
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
GROCHOCINSKI
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