957  
FXUS63 KFGF 221143  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
643 AM CDT SUN OCT 22 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN OCT 22 2017  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT PUBLIC FCST UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS EARLY MORNING  
PERIOD. THE AVIATION DISCUSSION IS UPDATED BELOW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN OCT 22 2017  
 
MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE SPENT BETWEEN ONE WEATHER SYSTEM DEPARTING  
FROM MINNESOTA ON THE EAST AND ONE APPROACHING SYSTEM COMING INTO  
NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE  
AREA ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY,  
LEAVING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MARKEDLY DRIER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.  
 
THIS MORNINGS LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN  
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WITH DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...  
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL EASILY TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
A MODERATE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH  
THE DAY, WITH H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING THROUGH ALOFT... MAKING  
FOR AN OVERALL PLEASANT AUTUMNAL DAY.  
 
ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE TROF WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST  
LATE TODAY... BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO EASTERN ND BY LATE  
AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ND  
AND NORTHERN MN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS.  
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A SCANT HUNDREDTH OR TWO OVER  
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 2.  
 
CLOUDY SKIES AND PERSISTING LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TO  
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN OCT 22 2017  
 
A MORE ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS UPCOMING WEEK  
WITH COOLER AIR MASSES INTRUDING OVER THE REGION BRINGING  
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONALLY NORMAL. THERE CONTINUES TO BE  
SIGNALS FOR THE SEASON'S FIRST SNOW THURSDAY OVER MOST OF THE REGION  
WITH SOME CHANCES LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
ON MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LEFT FRONT  
QUADRANT OF A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER JET AMPLIFIES INTO A LONGWAVE  
TROUGH. IN RESPONSE, A SURFACE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN  
CANADIAN PROVINCES WITH SWIFT MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE  
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR  
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES RESIDING  
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE US 2 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS WITHIN NORTHWESTERN  
MINNESOTA. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATE MONDAY LASTING  
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD, LONGWAVE  
TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST, AND A SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE  
REGION. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY, GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS  
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN NORTH  
DAKOTA/FAR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA, WITH GUSTS REACHING INTO THE  
LOWER 30S MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH  
A STOUT YET COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO  
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA OUT OF EASTERN MANITOBA WITH ITS  
PRECIPITATION SKEWED EAST OF ITS CENTER. THIS KEEPS MOST OF THE  
CWA DRY WITH ONLY THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA HOLDING PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES AT THE MOMENT. POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA COULD  
BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE  
ALREADY BEEN IN PLACE AND TIMING TOWARDS THE EVENING WILL FAVOR  
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S.  
 
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES  
THROUGH THE AREA BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEEPENING ALBERTA LOW.  
THIS DEEPENING ALBERTA LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON DEVELOPMENT AND  
LOCATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER  
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS OF GENERAL POSSIBLE IMPACTS, MAIN INTEREST  
WITH SNOW POTENTIAL. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO  
MID 30S WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE 40S.  
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COLD ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC DEVELOPMENT LEAVING THE  
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SEASON'S FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW CHANCES,  
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY  
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW LOOK TO  
REMAIN NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS  
GENERALLY LIGHT, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO GIVE EXACT  
PLACEMENT AND ACCUMULATION. WHETHER OR NOT THIS LOW STALLS OVER THE  
REGION OR PROGRESSES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DETERMINE  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY'S PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING  
THE FIRST SCENARIO AND GFS/CMC THE SECOND.  
 
TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS  
IN THE 50S, LOWS IN THE 30S. WITH COLDER AIR BEING DRAGGED DOWN FROM  
THE DEVELOPING ALBERTA LOW ON THURSDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY  
THROUGH SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER  
40S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. AGAIN, DETERIORATING  
CONFIDENCE BLEEDS INTO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THURSDAY FORWARD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN OCT 22 2017  
 
EXPECT FAIR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS  
DEVELOPING FROM MID-FORENOON INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE  
GUSTING TO AROUND 25KTS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR BJI UNTIL  
AROUND SUNSET. EXPECT LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE  
FA DURING THE EVENING... WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS  
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR DURING THE  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...GUST  
SHORT TERM...GUST  
LONG TERM...CJ  
AVIATION...GUST  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab ND Page
The Nexlab MN Page Main Text Page