023  
FXUS63 KFGF 271804  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
104 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017  
 
MODIFIED TEMPS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY IN FAR SE ND WHERE CLOUDS HAVE  
BEEN PERSISTENT. OTHERWISE, FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017  
 
FOR THIS UPDATE, TWEAKED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
AREA. RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. IT MIGHT NOT  
BE A LOT OF RAIN ON THE ND SIDE, BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE  
FOR HEAVIER RAIN ON THE MN SIDE. STILL, WITH THUNDERSTORMS,  
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MAY VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017  
 
INCREASED WINDS FOR TODAY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017  
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN MT. UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EAST-WEST CROSS SECTION INDICATED LITTLE  
FOR CLOUDS AT LOW LAYERS.  
 
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN OR WILL MOVE THROUGH  
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. UPPER SYSTEM WILL  
PRODUCE THUNDER. ALSO COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON  
WED. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER BC WILL MOVE  
THROUGH LATE THU INTO FRI MORNING FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT FROM MODEL  
SOLNS WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO END  
THE WEEK WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. GENERALLY THE AREA WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS  
THAN SUN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. BY  
SUNDAY 500MB RIDGING BEGINS WORKING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH  
INCREASING BLYR THERMAL PROFILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE  
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS.  
HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017  
 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND  
WE'LL ALSO BE SEEING SOME IFR CIGS IN AREAS LATE TONIGHT AS WELL.  
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THIS LOW DECK FOLLOWING  
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS. LOW CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT BJI AND TVF.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...KNUTSVIG  
SHORT TERM...JH  
LONG TERM...JK  
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG  
 
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