686  
FXUS63 KFGF 120544  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1144 PM CST MON DEC 11 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST MON DEC 11 2017  
 
NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE NEEDED. CLOUDS MOVING EAST AS  
ANTICIPATED AND TEMPS WILL RISE ACCORDINGLY DURING THE NIGHT AS  
THEY MOVE IN.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 11 2017  
 
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND STEADILY DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS  
THE AREA... IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM.  
RADIATIVE COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW  
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO RANGE  
OVER THE FRESHENED SNOWPACK OF NORTHCENTRAL MN AND INTO THE LOWER  
TEENS OVER RELATIVELY SNOW-FREE EASTERN ND.  
 
ON TUESDAY... THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IN OUR PERSISTENT NORTHWEST  
FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN ITS APPROACH FROM SOUTHWEST MANITOBA.  
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND A DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER  
TEENS NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS TO THE MIDDLE 30S NEAR THE SOUTH  
DAKOTA BORDER.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST MON DEC 11 2017  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... THE TRAIN OF CLIPPERS CONTINUE WITH  
MORE IMPACTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT THAT  
COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND  
SLEET SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ALSO SEEING SOME RAIN IN SREF PRECIP  
TYPES TO SUPPORT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES. STILL NOT A STRONG  
WARM LAYER ALOFT SO IT IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS POINT. AS THE  
CLIPPER MOVES SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES MOVE OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA AND REMAIN IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.  
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT  
SHOULD ALL TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE DAY ADVANCES.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... THE NEXT CLIPPER APPROACHES  
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. OVERALL  
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOME ELEVATED WINDS ARE LIKELY. THE  
NEXT CLIPPER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS WILL HAVE SOME MORE  
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT THEREFORE BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW  
ACCUMULATION. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS ALL SEEMS TO POINT TO THIS SYSTEM  
AROUND THIS TIME BUT DISAGREES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS  
CLIPPER. GEFS PLUMES HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT  
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS NEAR THE GEFS MEAN. SO WHILE THERE IS A  
FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN A SNOW FORECAST THE TIMING AND AMOUNT  
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  
 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY... YET ANOTHER CLIPPER LOOKS TO BE APPROACHING  
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE PATH OF THIS CLIPPER THOUGH LOOKS TO  
STAY TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA BASED ON CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE. THE  
ECMWF DOES HAVE A STRONGER LOW THAN THE GFS AND THEREFORE BRINGS  
MORE PRECIPITATION DOWN INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA.  
 
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN  
THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, NORTHWEST MINNESOTA,  
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN  
THE UPPER 10S INTO 20S FOR THIS PERIOD IN MID DECEMBER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST MON DEC 11 2017  
 
AS WINDS TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST EXPECT AN  
AREA OF CLOUDS...IN THE MVFR/LOW END VFR RANGE...TO SPREAD EAST  
THROUGH THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CLEARING OF THESE  
CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM THE WEST TUESDAY LATE.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...RIDDLE  
SHORT TERM...GUST  
LONG TERM...NC  
AVIATION...RIDDLE  
 
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