252  
FXUS63 KFGF 271734  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1234 PM CDT THU APR 27 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU APR 27 2017  
 
WITH MORE SOLAR OCCURRING FROM VALLEY WEST RAISED TEMPERATURES A  
FEW DEGREES. NO OTHER CHANGES.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT THU APR 27 2017  
 
PRIMARY CHALLENGES FOR UPDATES WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS, TEMPERATURES  
AND SNOW CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LOW OVER N MN WILL  
MOVE LITTLE TODAY. BACK EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD WILL  
REMAIN MAINLY FROM IMMEDIATE VALLEY EASTWARD. FARTHER WEST DRIER  
AIRMASS AND HIGH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW FOR FULL  
SOLAR. COMBINATION OF THIS AREA FOR THE MOST PART MISSING THE  
RECENT SNOW AND SOLAR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE  
40S. FARTHER EAST WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW COVER I THINK THE BEST WE  
WILL DO IS THE 30S. NO SNOW SHOWING UP ON OBS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST  
AND WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF  
PCPN HAVE LOWERED POPS AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU APR 27 2017  
 
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NNE AND WILL STALL OUT AS ANTICIPATED NEAR  
ROSEAU AND THEN MOVE EAST LATER TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WORKING  
SOUTHWESTWARD HAS HELPED TO GREATLY CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS OVER MUCH  
OF NORTHEASTERN ND INTO SOUTHERN ND, MUCH MORE SO THAT ORIGINALLY  
THOUGHT. DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO RE-FILL BACK IN TODAY, ESP IN THE RRV  
CLOSER TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT. KEPT TEMPS THE SAME. DID LET THE  
WINTER WX ADV EXPIRE THOUGH LINGERING SNOW CONTINUES WARROAD AREA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 27 2017  
 
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER LOW NEAR THIEF RIVER FALLS AND JUST  
WEST OF ITS TRACK ON WEDNESDAY WAS A BAND OF AROUND 6 INCHES OF  
SNOW FROM LISBON AREA TO JUST WEST OF FARGO TO GRAND FORKS. THE  
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD ROSEAU AREA TODAY AND STALL OUT AS  
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW THIS  
AFTN/EVE. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE  
TONIGHT. RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL HOLD OVER ALL BUT THE NW FCST AREA  
TODAY AND WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION FROM THE  
NORTHEAST INTO NW MN AND THE CENTRAL RRV IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY  
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THIS REGION 32-35F. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AT  
TIMES TODAY IN FAR NW MN/LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. WILL LET ALL  
ADVISORIES EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. CLEARING WILL PROGRESS EAST  
TONIGHT THRU THE RRV AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS. CHILLY NIGHT WITH  
LOWS IN THE MID 20S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU APR 27 2017  
 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO E ND FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MEAN  
SUNSHINE AND THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM  
GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY.  
 
SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT... ALL EYES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL  
BE ON THE NEXT 500MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZING SUNDAY OVER THE  
TX/OK PANHANDLES. AS IT LIFTS TO THE NE AND MATURES RAIN AND SNOW  
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH IN THE NORTHERN PRECIP SHIELD. GEFS AND EC IN  
FAR AGREEMENT WITH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES BY SUNDAY  
EVENING WITH THE EC SPREADING SNOW BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE RRV ON  
MONDAY. PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF SFC LOW ALONG WITH UPPER LOW WILL  
DEFINE RAIN AND SNOW PLACEMENT. IF RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM  
INCREASES THEN A WESTERN SHIFT TO THE EXPECTED TRACK WOULD BE  
LIKELY. AS FOR TEMPS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE  
MID 50S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUDS AND  
PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, CURRENTLY FORECASTING 40S EAST OF THE  
VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE  
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW A QUICK REBOUND WITH 50S EXPECTED TO RETURN BY  
WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY ARE IN THE LOW 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU APR 27 2017  
 
MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD EAST OF THE VALLEY INTO MID EVENING BEFORE  
LIFTING AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. FARTHER WEST VFR  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY VISIBILITY  
GUIDANCE NOT PICKING UP ON ANY FOG SO NONE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...VOELKER  
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE  
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE  
AVIATION...VOELKER  
 
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