175  
FXUS63 KFGF 191603  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1103 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018  
 
RAINFALL AND THUNDER THREAT TRENDING DOWN RIGHT NOW, SO DECREASED  
POPS AND THUNDER IN FORECAST GRIDS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT  
RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS PER  
HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE. SOME SUSPENDED SMOKE AND HAZE REMAINS  
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BAND IN NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST  
MN WHERE LITTLE TO NO APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION OCCURRED. WILL BE  
CHECKING UPDATES ON SMOKE MODELS TO SEE IF/WHEN CANADIAN SMOKE  
PLUME MAY RETURN. FOR NOW, EXPECT CURRENT AQA TO EXPIRE AT NOON  
AS PER MPCA.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018  
 
ADJUSTED POP/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TRENDS  
ON RADAR/SATELLITE. STILL EXPECT ACTIVITY TO TRANSITION EAST AND  
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT IT HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER  
(AND HIGHER IN COVERAGE). SMOKE IS WRAPPING AROUND BACK SIDE OF  
COLD FRONT AND LOCATIONS IN OUR NORTHEAST (OUTSIDE OF MAIN PRECIP  
AREA) ARE REPORTING HAZE ONCE AGAIN. I ADDED SMOKE MENTION BACK TO  
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE TONIGHT PERIOD (KEPT MENTION OUT DURING  
PERIODS/LOCATIONS OF HIGHER POPS).  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018  
 
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL RRV TO LAKE OF THE  
WOODS. ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AXIS OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG  
AND HIGH PWATS (1.2-1.5") HAVE CORRELATED WITH CONVERGENCE AND  
INCREASED FORCING TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY  
THIS MORNING. WHILE SHEAR HAS BEEN WEAK IN PROXIMITY OF ONGOING  
ACTIVITY, THERE HAVE STILL BE SOME STRONGER CORES OCCASIONALLY  
PULSING UP, AND UNTIL THIS INSTABILITY AXIS TRANSITIONS SOUTHEAST  
WITH THIS FRONT THIS MORNING THIS MAY CONTINUE.  
 
CAMS WARE STARTING TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH CURRENT TRENDS AND  
SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY TRANSITIONING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN RRV AND  
INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NORTHERN LOCATIONS DRY  
OUT BY MID MORNING, BUT SOUTHERLY LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA CONTINUE TO  
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING (POSSIBLY EVEN  
INTO MONDAY MORNING) AS MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES JUST SOUTH OF OUR  
AREA. MOST INTENSE PERIOD THROUGH THIS EVENING CORRELATES WITH  
MODEST INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWATS NEAR STALLED FRONTAL ZONE, AND  
THIS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND A FLASH FLOOD RISK.  
 
COOLER TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH  
MONDAY. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF CLEARING (AND DECREASES IN WINDS) WE  
COULD SEE LOWS TREND LOWER THAN BLENDS INITIALIZED WITH (CLOSER TO  
LOWER 40S) BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018  
 
STILL EXPECTING A TREND TOWARDS RISING HEIGHTS/WAA DURING  
THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH PASSAGE  
TOWARDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF  
SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR CWA (INCREASING CHANCES OVERALL) DURING  
THOSE PERIODS. BEYOND THAT PERIOD PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES,  
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON TIMING/TRACK OF POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH PASSAGES. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S (MAYBE A  
LITTLE WARMER SOME AFTERNOONS) AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION SOUTH AND EAST FROM  
HIGHWAY 2 AND INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL  
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VIS TO NEAR IFR  
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS  
THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. LIGHTER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY LINGERS IN MINNESOTA THROUGH  
MONDAY MORNING. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY SMOKE IS  
WRAPPING BACK AROUND FROM CANADA AND THIS MAY REDUCE VIS BACK TO  
MVFR AFTER RAIN COMES TO AN END. SMOKE/HAZE IS ALREADY REPORTED  
AT KDVL AND I ADDED MENTION THROUGH THE DAY (HARD TO SAY HOW LONG  
IT LINGERS AT THIS POINT). I KEPT IT OUT OF OTHER TAFS AS IT IS  
HARD TO SAY WHAT IMPACTS OF SMOKE WILL BE AT OTHER TERMINALS (WILL  
MONITOR).  
 
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY BEHIND A PASSING  
COLD FRONT, WITH GUSTS 18-20KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY  
EVENING.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...GUST  
SHORT TERM...DJR  
LONG TERM...DJR  
AVIATION...DJR  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab ND Page
The Nexlab MN Page Main Text Page