877
FXUS63 KFGF 161945
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
245 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2012
SHORT TERM
/TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE CENTERED
ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND A CHANCE FOR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE MAIN
FEATURE...A COLD FRONT COMING ACROSS THE VALLEY REGION ON
SATURDAY...BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF
THE ASSOCIATED LOW. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A HEFTY CAP WILL
HOLD POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM.
TONIGHT...STRONG H850 JET PUNCHES INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY
TONIGHT...WITH BEST H850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS MOVING IN AROUND
09Z. SFC CAPES ARE NIL BUT MUCAPES DO APPROACH AROUND 800 TO 900
J/KG AROUND 09Z. STRONGEST MUCAPE IS SOUTH OF VALLEY AND NAM
KEEPING QPFS SOUTH OF OUR CWA...IN W CNTRL MN. WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUT ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ELEVATED AND THREAT OF SEVERE WILL BE VERY LOW.
THU AND FRI...MAIN ISSUE WITH THU AND FRI CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS
A VERY WARM H850 TO H700 LAYER...KEEP CIN VALUES OF AT LEAST 50
J/KG IN PLACE BOTH DAYS. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION
THU THROUGH FRI AFTN WILL BE IN FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE THERE IS
SOME INTERACTION WITH LLJ. REMOVED POPS FOR FRI AM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BUMP MAX TEMP POTENTIAL NEAR OR INTO THE LOW
90S...NEARING POTENTIALLY RECORD MAX TEMPS FOR FRI AFTN.
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT AS SFC BOUNDARY STARTS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE EARLY SAT
MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY SAT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS
THE CWA. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOWING WIND SHIFT INTO VALLEY MID SAT
MORNING...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING WITH TIMING OF THE
FRONT. 0-6 KM LAYER BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL
RUNS...A CONCERN CONSIDERING KMVX RADAR UPGRADE TO DUAL POL WILL
LIKELY NOT BE COMPLETE. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME WEAK
CIN ACROSS THE AREA AND STRONGEST BULK SHEAR REMAINS BEHIND THE FRONT.
SFC BASED CAPES...HOWEVER...DO CLIMB TO AROUND 3500 J/KG (NAM) SAT
AFTN ACROSS MINNESOTA SIDE OF OUR CWA. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL BUT
POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LONG TERM
/SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ANY RESIDUAL PCPN SHOULD BE EXITING FA TO THE EAST IN WAKE OF COLD
FRONT SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY FOR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARM UP TUESDAY. MODELS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF MID WEEK SYSTEM. HAVE FOLLOWED
PERSISTENCE AND NATIONAL GUIDANCE WITH TIMING/POPS.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE PCPN CHANCES
LATE TONIGHT MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FAR-BJI
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SPEICHER/VOELKER
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