116  
FXUS63 KFGF 220755  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
255 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
 
MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IS MINIMAL  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. LOOKS LIKE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AGAIN  
TODAY, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS PICKING UP A LITTLE DURING THE DAY.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY'S HIGHS.  
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING CAPE VALUES GET UP TO ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER  
EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK. THIS MEANS THERE MAY BE SOME  
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY HOLD TOGETHER INTO  
TONIGHT, HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING THEM TO BE SEVERE. THEY SHOULD BE  
PULSE STORMS, UP ONE VOLUME SCAN AND THEN DOWN AGAIN. THE AREAS  
WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR THESE APPEAR TO BE THE DEVILS LAKE TO  
VALLEY CITY CORRIDOR AND UP AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO START THE  
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH IMPULSES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE  
ENERGY COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS OR  
STORMS EACH DAY.  
 
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AFTER MID WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE  
NORTHER PLAINS...AND A SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP  
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS  
FORECAST TO HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE  
LOW TO MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2018  
 
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS IN  
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY BLAYER FLOW ON  
FRIDAY... WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN  
ND THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...GODON  
LONG TERM...HOPKINS  
AVIATION...GUST  
 
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