152  
FXUS63 KFGF 230737  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
137 AM CST FRI FEB 23 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST FRI FEB 23 2018  
 
700MB LOW WILL TRACK FROM AROUND FARGO TO BEMIDJI INTO THE EARLY  
MORNING HOURS. RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A DEFORMATION  
ZONE SNOWBAND IS SETTING UP IN THIS AREA (WHICH IS JUST NORTH OF  
THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY). LATEST HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE  
INDICATES 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH 12Z. GIVEN THAT THIS WILL  
AFFECT THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE, WILL EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER  
ADVISORY NORTHWARD A TIER OF COUNTIES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST THU FEB 22 2018  
 
THE SNOW IS EXPANDING ON RADARS TO THE SOUTH, BUT IS STILL DOWN  
AND SOUTH OF WATERTOWN SD. IT WILL LIFT UP INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN  
FA IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS, THEN CONTINUE TO EXPAND SLOWLY  
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. THE INITIAL ONSET OF THE SNOW IS SLOWER THAN  
YESTERDAY, AND ALSO LINGERS A LITTLE LATER INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  
HOWEVER, GENERAL SNOW TOTALS LOOK ABOUT THE SAME, WITH AREAS  
WITHIN THE ADVISORY EXPECTED TO PICK UP 3-5 OR 3-6 INCHES, WITH  
LESS OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY. LIKE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED, THERE  
MAY BE A SHARPER NORTHWARD BORDER TO THE SNOW, WHICH IS A LITTLE  
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE MODELS SHOWED YESTERDAY. THE GRAND FORKS TO  
BAUDETTE MN CORRIDOR IS ALONG THIS LINE, SO THESE AREAS MAY PICK  
UP A DUSTING OR MAYBE NOT MUCH AT ALL. WIND SPEEDS STILL LOOK  
PRETTY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT, SO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW  
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN IMPACT. WITH THE SLOWER ONSET AND  
DEPARTURE TIMES, DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING ON THE  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE SNOW SHOULD EXIT OUT OF THE EASTERN  
FA BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, WITH FRIDAY AFTERNOON LOOKING DRY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST THU FEB 22 2018  
 
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK CENTERS AROUND A STRONG  
COLORADO LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
SATURDAY AND PROPAGATE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT  
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT  
OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY, LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT  
ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL RESULT IN A STRONG SURFACE LOW THAT IS  
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE MOST DETERMINISTIC  
GUIDANCE AGREE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STORM, TIMING AND TRACK  
DIFFERENCES ADD UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. LONG AND MEDIUM RANGE  
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, ALONG WITH ANALOG GUIDANCE, SUGGEST THE GREATEST  
RISK AREA LIES FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTH  
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FRONTOGENETICAL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING SIGNALS  
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW BANDING TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE RISK AREA.  
 
AT THIS TIME, ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL APPEARS TO BE THE BIGGEST WINTER  
WEATHER THREAT TO THE FGF CWA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATION  
ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT  
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND  
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA, THOUGH THERE IS MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE IN  
ACCUMULATION FOR THESE REGIONS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY  
LIGHT UNTIL MID DAY SUNDAY WHEN WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IN RESPONSE TO MODERATE PRESSURE  
RISES.  
 
BEYOND THIS WEEKEND, RELATIVELY QUIET AND CALMER WEATHER IS  
ANTICIPATED AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW FOR  
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER TWENTIES AND  
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST THU FEB 22 2018  
 
CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR WITH VIS AROUND A MILE AT KFAR AND KBJI. THE  
SNOW WILL PUSH INTO KGFK AND KTVF SHORTLY. THERE COULD BE SOME  
VARIATION IN VISIBILITY FROM 1SM TO THE 2-5SM RANGE FOR MUCH OF  
THE NIGHT BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF AROUND THE 12-14Z TIME FRAME.  
KDVL WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE  
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THEN CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY LATE IN  
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12 KTS, WITH LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST, WEST, THEN  
SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW EVENING.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR  
NDZ052.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ039.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR  
NDZ053.  
 
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ002-  
003-015>017-022>024-027-028.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR  
MNZ029>032-040.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...TG  
SHORT TERM...GODON  
LONG TERM...AM  
AVIATION...JR  
 
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