874
FXUS63 KFGF 241612 AAA
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1012 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009
DISCUSSION
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...WILL ONLY MAKE SOME TIMING
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS AND THE TEMP RISE TODAY. CLEARING LINE IS
NOT MOVING TOO FAST TO THE EAST...BUT IS SLOWLY INCHING THAT WAY.
MEANWHILE THE HIGH CLOUDS TO THE WEST ARE CATCHING UP...SO ALL
AREAS WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THRU THE DAY. HUGE TEMP GRADIENT
FROM WEST TO EAST WHICH SHOULD BALANCE OUT DURING THE DAY.
AVIATION
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF KBJI IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...TO
BE REPLACED WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WIND SPEEDS LOOK PRETTY LIGHT
TODAY SO DIRECTIONS COULD BE VARIABLE.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 255 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE INITIALLY WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT SNOW CHANCES AND TEMPS. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 40 CLOSE TO LOW CENTER AND LOW
CLOUDS. FURTHER WEST...A CLEARING LINE IS PUSHING INTO THE VALLEY
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AND WESTERLY SFC FLOW. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS PERFORMING BETTER OF LATE WITH
HANDLING OF QPF SO WILL UTILIZE.
FOR TODAY...THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL. WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG IN ALL AREAS THROUGH
15Z...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF DENSE FOG NEAR THE CLEARING
LINE WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RELATIVELY HIGH ALONG WITH RAIN
FROM YESTERDAY CAUSING A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE SHOULD BE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FROM THE VALLEY WEST WITH EASTERN AREAS
CLEARING SOME BY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL ONCE
AGAIN. WE WILL REMOVE ANY PRECIP MENTION IN THE EAST...ALTHOUGH
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE NEAR FOG AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING.
FOR TONIGHT AND WED...A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL
PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS STRONG
DEEP LAYERED OMEGA AND Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE...WITH SATURATION
OCCURRING LATER THIS EVENING IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND LATE
TONIGHT IN THE EAST. WE WILL INCREASE POPS WITH UP TO AN INCH
POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM DVL-GFK-BJI ALONG THE 700MB LOW TRACK. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE NW ON WED WITH COLD ADVECTION...SO
SOME BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBY POSSIBLE IF HEAVIER SNOW COMBINES
WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 30KT AT TIMES BY LATE WED MORNING INTO WED
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WON/T MENTION ANY BLOWING SNOW SINCE THIS WILL
HINGE ON SNOWFALL...BUT MENTION POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. TEMPS MAY BE
STEADY OR EVEN SLOWLY FALL WED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SOME SNOW.
ON THANKSGIVING/FRI...EXPECT DRY AND COOL WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLLING THE WEATHER PATTERN. BY FRIDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP WITH SOME SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED.
FOR SAT/SUN...AN UPPER LOW MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL
MAINTAIN THE LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SAT NIGHT/SUN...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. TEMPS SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SAT WITH TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
GODON
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