169  
FGUS73 KOAX 121344  
ESFOAX  
NEC003-023-025-039-053-055-067-095-107-109-119-127-139-141-147-151-  
153-155-159-167-IAC071-085-133-137-145-155-DDHHMM-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE  
844 AM CDT TUE SEP 12 2017  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 08/26/2017 - 11/24/2017  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:NIOBRARA RIVER  
VERDEL 7.0 9.0 10.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:PONCA CREEK  
VERDEL 13.5 15.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:ELKHORN RIVER  
NELIGH 11.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
NORFOLK 12.0 13.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:NORTH FORK ELKHORN RIVER  
PIERCE 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:ELKHORN RIVER  
PILGER 12.0 14.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
WEST POINT 12.0 16.0 18.7 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
WINSLOW 18.0 20.0 24.0 : 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:LOGAN CREEK  
UEHLING 18.0 19.0 21.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:MAPLE CREEK  
NICKERSON 11.5 13.0 17.0 : 8 6 7 6 <5 <5  
:ELKHORN RIVER  
WATERLOO 17.0 18.0 21.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:PLATTE RIVER  
DUNCAN 8.0 9.0 10.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SHELL CREEK  
COLUMBUS 20.0 21.0 22.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:PLATTE RIVER  
NORTH BEND 8.0 12.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
LESHARA 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
ASHLAND 20.0 22.0 26.0 : 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SALT CREEK  
ROCA 19.0 21.5 23.0 : 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5  
LINCOLN 20.5 26.5 29.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
GREENWOOD 20.0 24.0 31.0 : 18 9 8 6 <5 <5  
:WAHOO CREEK  
ITHACA 19.0 22.0 23.0 : 22 11 15 7 <5 <5  
:SALT CREEK  
ASHLAND 16.0 20.0 23.0 : 21 15 12 7 <5 <5  
:PLATTE RIVER  
LOUISVILLE 9.0 11.0 12.0 : 8 5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
SURPRISE 7.0 10.0 12.0 : 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:LINCOLN CREEK  
SEWARD 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 24 12 12 6 <5 <5  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
SEWARD 18.0 22.0 27.0 : 11 6 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:WEST FORK BIG BLUE RIVER  
DORCHESTER 15.0 22.0 24.4 : 14 14 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
CRETE 21.0 25.0 29.0 : 23 20 7 7 <5 <5  
:TURKEY CREEK  
WILBER 12.5 16.0 21.0 : 16 14 5 5 <5 <5  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
BEATRICE 18.0 26.0 32.0 : 11 10 <5 <5 <5 <5  
BARNESTON 20.0 27.0 33.0 : 14 13 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER  
FAIRBURY 18.5 20.0 23.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:MAPLE RIVER  
MAPLETON 21.0 24.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:LITTLE SIOUX RIVER  
TURIN 25.0 28.0 34.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SOLDIER RIVER  
PISGAH 28.0 29.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BOYER RIVER  
LOGAN 21.0 22.0 25.0 : 7 <5 6 <5 <5 <5  
:WEEPING WATER CREEK  
UNION 25.0 28.0 30.0 : 10 10 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER  
RED OAK 18.0 22.0 27.0 : 19 13 6 6 5 5  
:WEST NISHNABOTNA RIVER  
HANCOCK 14.0 19.0 23.0 : 15 14 10 10 9 9  
RANDOLPH 19.0 22.0 24.0 : 16 16 10 10 8 9  
:NISHNABOTNA RIVER  
HAMBURG 25.0 27.5 33.0 : 15 17 6 9 <5 <5  
:LITTLE NEMAHA RIVER  
AUBURN 22.0 23.0 27.0 : 9 9 9 8 <5 <5  
:NORTH FORK BIG NEMAHA RIVER  
HUMBOLDT 28.0 29.5 31.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BIG NEMAHA RIVER  
FALLS CITY 27.0 30.0 36.0 : <5 7 <5 6 <5 <5  
:NODAWAY RIVER  
CLARINDA 23.0 26.0 29.0 : 13 8 7 <5 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 08/26/2017 - 11/24/2017  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:NIOBRARA RIVER  
VERDEL 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.8  
:PONCA CREEK  
VERDEL 5.2 5.2 5.5 7.2 9.3 11.2 12.1  
:ELKHORN RIVER  
NELIGH 2.5 2.5 2.5 4.5 5.7 7.0 7.2  
NORFOLK 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.5 4.3 5.4 5.7  
:NORTH FORK ELKHORN RIVER  
PIERCE 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 4.9 7.5 9.1  
:ELKHORN RIVER  
PILGER 7.4 7.4 7.4 8.2 9.0 9.5 9.7  
WEST POINT 7.3 7.3 7.4 8.1 9.1 10.6 11.5  
WINSLOW 9.2 9.2 9.8 10.7 12.5 15.5 17.4  
:LOGAN CREEK  
UEHLING 3.6 3.6 3.9 6.2 9.1 14.2 16.4  
:MAPLE CREEK  
NICKERSON 3.0 3.0 3.0 6.0 7.8 10.5 15.3  
:ELKHORN RIVER  
WATERLOO 3.4 3.4 4.2 6.5 8.6 13.4 15.0  
:PLATTE RIVER  
DUNCAN 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.9 5.9 6.3  
:SHELL CREEK  
COLUMBUS 0.8 0.8 0.8 4.5 10.2 17.9 19.2  
:PLATTE RIVER  
NORTH BEND 4.5 4.5 4.6 5.0 5.8 7.0 7.7  
LESHARA 4.5 4.5 4.6 5.0 6.1 7.4 8.3  
ASHLAND 15.9 15.9 15.9 16.8 17.8 19.3 20.0  
:SALT CREEK  
ROCA 1.8 1.8 2.1 3.8 5.9 17.4 19.2  
LINCOLN 2.8 2.8 3.1 5.1 11.8 18.0 20.4  
GREENWOOD 2.8 2.8 3.7 6.4 15.9 22.7 25.5  
:WAHOO CREEK  
ITHACA 4.7 4.7 4.9 8.5 16.8 22.1 22.4  
:SALT CREEK  
ASHLAND 7.2 7.2 7.8 9.8 14.2 20.3 22.3  
:PLATTE RIVER  
LOUISVILLE 4.4 4.4 4.6 5.6 6.6 8.7 9.2  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
SURPRISE 1.6 1.6 1.7 3.1 4.3 7.7 9.6  
:LINCOLN CREEK  
SEWARD 5.5 5.5 6.1 9.1 14.8 17.6 19.0  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
SEWARD 2.5 2.5 3.0 5.1 12.9 19.3 21.6  
:WEST FORK BIG BLUE RIVER  
DORCHESTER 3.2 3.2 4.7 6.8 11.1 17.5 19.6  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
CRETE 9.3 9.3 10.2 13.0 19.9 23.7 27.4  
:TURKEY CREEK  
WILBER 2.5 2.5 5.3 8.4 11.9 14.1 15.8  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
BEATRICE 5.0 5.0 5.7 8.8 13.2 18.6 24.3  
BARNESTON 5.9 5.9 6.0 9.7 14.3 21.0 22.8  
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER  
FAIRBURY 6.3 6.3 7.6 9.8 12.5 16.9 19.4  
:MAPLE RIVER  
MAPLETON 6.4 6.4 6.4 7.2 9.1 10.5 15.1  
:LITTLE SIOUX RIVER  
TURIN 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 13.0 15.9 22.2  
:SOLDIER RIVER  
PISGAH 4.2 4.3 4.7 6.8 8.7 11.2 12.3  
:BOYER RIVER  
LOGAN 3.5 3.5 4.7 6.6 10.3 16.2 22.5  
:WEEPING WATER CREEK  
UNION 3.4 3.4 3.4 6.3 11.6 24.9 27.4  
:EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER  
RED OAK 6.9 6.9 8.1 9.7 15.7 19.5 26.4  
:WEST NISHNABOTNA RIVER  
HANCOCK 2.4 2.6 3.7 5.9 7.6 18.8 27.0  
RANDOLPH 8.3 8.8 9.8 12.5 14.7 21.6 26.7  
:NISHNABOTNA RIVER  
HAMBURG 8.9 8.9 10.8 13.8 21.3 25.8 30.2  
:LITTLE NEMAHA RIVER  
AUBURN 3.0 3.7 6.0 8.3 13.3 20.8 24.1  
:NORTH FORK BIG NEMAHA RIVER  
HUMBOLDT 2.1 2.2 4.2 6.4 11.1 15.6 17.5  
:BIG NEMAHA RIVER  
FALLS CITY 3.9 4.4 6.0 10.0 15.1 20.6 25.7  
:NODAWAY RIVER  
CLARINDA 11.1 11.1 11.7 13.1 16.1 24.4 28.1  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 08/26/2017 - 11/24/2017  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:NIOBRARA RIVER  
VERDEL 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3  
:PONCA CREEK  
VERDEL 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.4  
:ELKHORN RIVER  
NELIGH 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2  
NORFOLK 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1  
:NORTH FORK ELKHORN RIVER  
PIERCE 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1  
:ELKHORN RIVER  
PILGER 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4  
WEST POINT 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5  
WINSLOW 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.4  
:LOGAN CREEK  
UEHLING 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8  
:MAPLE CREEK  
NICKERSON 2.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0  
:ELKHORN RIVER  
WATERLOO 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0  
:PLATTE RIVER  
DUNCAN 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7  
:SHELL CREEK  
COLUMBUS 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1  
:PLATTE RIVER  
NORTH BEND 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2  
LESHARA 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6  
ASHLAND 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.7 14.7  
:SALT CREEK  
ROCA 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6  
LINCOLN 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4  
GREENWOOD 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5  
:WAHOO CREEK  
ITHACA 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7  
:SALT CREEK  
ASHLAND 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.6  
:PLATTE RIVER  
LOUISVILLE 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
SURPRISE 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4  
:LINCOLN CREEK  
SEWARD 4.7 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
SEWARD 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5  
:WEST FORK BIG BLUE RIVER  
DORCHESTER 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
CRETE 7.9 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5  
:TURKEY CREEK  
WILBER 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
BEATRICE 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1  
BARNESTON 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3  
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER  
FAIRBURY 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.0  
:MAPLE RIVER  
MAPLETON 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8  
:LITTLE SIOUX RIVER  
TURIN 8.0 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8  
:SOLDIER RIVER  
PISGAH 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4  
:BOYER RIVER  
LOGAN 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1  
:WEEPING WATER CREEK  
UNION 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9  
:EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER  
RED OAK 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6  
:WEST NISHNABOTNA RIVER  
HANCOCK 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6  
RANDOLPH 8.2 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.4  
:NISHNABOTNA RIVER  
HAMBURG 8.1 7.6 7.2 6.8 6.4 6.2 6.1  
:LITTLE NEMAHA RIVER  
AUBURN 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6  
:NORTH FORK BIG NEMAHA RIVER  
HUMBOLDT 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9  
:BIG NEMAHA RIVER  
FALLS CITY 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6  
:NODAWAY RIVER  
CLARINDA 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/OAX FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 

 
 
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