756
FGUS73 KOAX 211810 CCA
ESFOAX
NEC003-023-025-039-053-055-067-095-107-109-119-127-139-141-147-151-
153-155-159-167-IAC071-085-133-137-145-155-212000-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
259 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2024
..THERE IS A BELOW NORMAL RISK FOR FLOODING THIS SPRING
.2024 SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
THE LACK OF AN ESTABLISHED SNOWPACK, BOTH IN THE PLAINS AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS, ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE, HAD LEAD TO A
DECREASED RISK FOR FLOODING THIS SPRING. ANY FLOODING THAT DOES OCCUR
THIS SPRING WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY
OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR A THOROUGH EXPLANATION OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS, PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OMAHA/SPRINGFLOODOUTLOOK
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:NIOBRARA RIVER
VERDEL 8.0 9.5 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:PONCA CREEK
VERDEL 13.5 15.0 17.0 : 15 21 10 16 <5 <5
:MISSOURI RIVER
DECATUR 35.0 38.0 41.0 : <5 16 <5 8 <5 6
BLAIR 26.5 28.5 33.0 : 6 23 <5 10 <5 6
OMAHA 27.0 32.0 40.0 : 16 47 <5 17 <5 <5
PLATTSMOUTH 26.0 32.0 35.0 : 16 52 <5 24 <5 8
NEBRASKA CITY 18.0 23.0 27.0 : 38 61 10 37 <5 <5
BROWNVILLE 34.0 38.5 43.0 : 38 66 14 46 <5 12
RULO 17.0 21.0 26.0 : 33 63 15 49 <5 5
:ELKHORN RIVER
NELIGH 11.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
NORFOLK 12.0 13.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:NORTH FORK ELKHORN RIVER
PIERCE 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 20 <5 8 <5 <5
:ELKHORN RIVER
PILGER 12.0 15.0 17.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
WEST POINT 12.0 16.0 17.0 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
WINSLOW 17.0 20.0 23.0 : 8 16 <5 5 <5 <5
:LOGAN CREEK
UEHLING 18.0 19.0 21.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MAPLE CREEK
NICKERSON 11.5 13.0 17.0 : 9 18 8 12 <5 6
:ELKHORN RIVER
WATERLOO 14.0 18.0 21.0 : 13 24 <5 6 <5 <5
:PLATTE RIVER
DUNCAN 8.0 9.0 10.0 : 17 13 9 11 5 7
:SHELL CREEK
COLUMBUS 30.0 31.0 32.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:PLATTE RIVER
NORTH BEND 8.0 10.0 11.5 : 9 18 <5 6 <5 <5
LESHARA 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 11 20 <5 5 <5 <5
ASHLAND 20.0 22.0 23.5 : 12 24 <5 6 <5 5
:SALT CREEK
ROCA 19.0 21.5 23.0 : 7 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
LINCOLN (N 27TH S 20.5 26.5 29.0 : 6 6 <5 5 <5 <5
GREENWOOD 20.0 24.0 31.0 : 19 31 6 7 <5 <5
:WAHOO CREEK
ITHACA 19.0 20.5 23.0 : 33 50 30 44 <5 <5
:SALT CREEK
ASHLAND 20.0 21.0 26.0 : 17 33 10 24 <5 <5
:PLATTE RIVER
LOUISVILLE 9.0 11.0 12.0 : 16 33 <5 6 <5 5
:BIG BLUE RIVER
SURPRISE 7.0 10.0 12.0 : 12 23 5 15 <5 <5
:LINCOLN CREEK
SEWARD 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 37 55 20 43 <5 <5
:BIG BLUE RIVER
SEWARD 18.0 22.0 27.0 : 8 23 <5 8 <5 <5
:WEST FORK BIG BLUE RIVER
DORCHESTER 15.0 22.0 24.4 : 24 51 <5 8 <5 <5
:BIG BLUE RIVER
CRETE 21.0 25.0 31.0 : 35 56 6 25 <5 6
:TURKEY CREEK
WILBER 12.5 16.0 21.0 : 30 44 <5 11 <5 <5
DE WITT 23.5 25.0 27.0 : 10 28 6 13 5 6
:BIG BLUE RIVER
BEATRICE 18.0 26.0 32.0 : 13 41 <5 9 <5 <5
BARNESTON 20.0 27.0 33.0 : 20 41 <5 10 <5 <5
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
FAIRBURY 18.5 20.0 23.0 : 6 19 6 11 <5 5
:MAPLE RIVER
MAPLETON 21.0 22.0 23.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE SIOUX RIVER
TURIN 25.0 28.0 34.5 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SOLDIER RIVER
PISGAH 28.0 29.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BOYER RIVER
LOGAN 21.0 22.0 25.0 : 8 9 8 9 7 8
:WEEPING WATER CREEK
UNION 25.0 28.0 30.0 : 13 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
:EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER
RED OAK 18.0 22.0 27.0 : 15 46 8 15 <5 <5
:WEST NISHNABOTNA RIVER
HANCOCK 14.0 19.0 23.0 : 12 38 11 13 9 11
RANDOLPH 19.0 22.0 27.0 : 12 53 10 13 5 5
:NISHNABOTNA RIVER
HAMBURG 25.0 27.5 33.0 : 19 62 9 22 <5 <5
:LITTLE NEMAHA RIVER
AUBURN 22.0 23.0 27.0 : 19 18 17 17 <5 <5
:NORTH FORK BIG NEMAHA RIVER
HUMBOLDT 28.0 29.5 31.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BIG NEMAHA RIVER
FALLS CITY 27.0 30.0 36.0 : 12 18 10 14 <5 <5
:NODAWAY RIVER
CLARINDA 23.0 26.0 29.0 : 9 15 7 8 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:NIOBRARA RIVER
VERDEL 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.9 5.3 6.1
:PONCA CREEK
VERDEL 6.8 7.4 8.0 10.2 12.7 15.1 15.8
:MISSOURI RIVER
DECATUR 20.6 20.6 20.9 21.5 25.8 30.5 34.1
BLAIR 12.9 13.0 13.4 14.3 17.8 23.4 26.9
OMAHA 14.9 15.0 15.8 17.6 22.3 29.5 31.4
PLATTSMOUTH 15.1 15.1 17.4 19.8 24.6 29.6 31.2
NEBRASKA CITY 9.9 9.9 12.7 14.9 20.0 23.0 23.9
BROWNVILLE 25.0 25.2 27.6 31.4 35.5 39.8 41.6
RULO 7.1 7.2 9.9 13.9 18.5 22.1 23.3
:ELKHORN RIVER
NELIGH 2.7 4.2 5.2 6.5 8.3 10.0 10.9
NORFOLK 2.8 3.3 4.2 5.3 6.9 8.4 8.8
:NORTH FORK ELKHORN RIVER
PIERCE 2.6 2.7 3.4 5.2 6.8 9.3 10.1
:ELKHORN RIVER
PILGER 7.0 7.3 8.0 9.2 9.5 10.5 11.2
WEST POINT 4.0 4.3 4.6 7.4 8.5 10.5 11.5
WINSLOW 9.4 9.6 10.9 12.9 15.1 16.3 17.6
:LOGAN CREEK
UEHLING 3.5 4.2 6.1 8.6 10.9 12.2 12.6
:MAPLE CREEK
NICKERSON 2.4 2.7 5.1 7.0 8.0 10.8 15.1
:ELKHORN RIVER
WATERLOO 2.8 3.4 5.1 8.6 11.5 14.8 15.3
:PLATTE RIVER
DUNCAN 3.9 4.1 4.5 5.4 7.2 8.9 10.0
:SHELL CREEK
COLUMBUS 10.6 10.6 15.8 23.5 27.4 28.6 29.6
:PLATTE RIVER
NORTH BEND 3.6 3.8 4.6 5.5 7.1 7.9 9.0
LESHARA 4.4 4.5 5.3 6.2 7.5 8.1 8.8
ASHLAND 15.0 15.2 16.8 18.2 19.3 20.8 21.1
:SALT CREEK
ROCA 1.5 1.5 2.5 4.8 12.6 16.7 20.4
LINCOLN (N 27TH S 2.3 2.3 3.1 6.6 13.4 16.7 23.6
GREENWOOD 2.2 2.3 3.6 8.4 17.1 21.1 25.1
:WAHOO CREEK
ITHACA 3.5 3.5 5.0 10.0 21.8 22.3 22.5
:SALT CREEK
ASHLAND 7.1 7.2 8.5 13.5 18.1 21.0 21.7
:PLATTE RIVER
LOUISVILLE 3.9 4.0 5.3 6.8 8.3 9.5 9.9
:BIG BLUE RIVER
SURPRISE 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.5 8.1 10.0
:LINCOLN CREEK
SEWARD 4.1 4.5 7.5 11.8 16.5 17.7 18.5
:BIG BLUE RIVER
SEWARD 1.6 1.8 3.1 7.4 12.9 16.9 20.1
:WEST FORK BIG BLUE RIVER
DORCHESTER 3.6 4.4 5.0 10.9 14.5 18.9 20.3
:BIG BLUE RIVER
CRETE 8.7 9.8 11.5 18.4 22.2 24.2 25.6
:TURKEY CREEK
WILBER 2.5 4.3 5.8 9.7 13.6 14.6 15.6
DE WITT 10.4 12.4 13.9 16.8 21.4 23.5 27.1
:BIG BLUE RIVER
BEATRICE 3.8 4.9 7.7 11.2 16.1 18.8 24.8
BARNESTON 5.3 5.9 10.7 13.7 19.4 23.8 25.6
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
FAIRBURY 7.6 8.6 9.9 12.7 15.1 17.5 21.6
:MAPLE RIVER
MAPLETON 4.5 5.2 6.6 7.3 8.3 9.5 16.7
:LITTLE SIOUX RIVER
TURIN 7.7 8.2 9.6 11.4 12.7 15.3 21.1
:SOLDIER RIVER
PISGAH 3.2 4.0 5.7 7.9 9.2 10.4 14.6
:BOYER RIVER
LOGAN 3.5 5.7 7.7 9.4 10.7 14.6 29.1
:WEEPING WATER CREEK
UNION 4.3 5.5 6.3 10.1 20.4 26.3 26.6
:EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER
RED OAK 6.0 8.0 9.7 13.3 15.2 20.3 24.4
:WEST NISHNABOTNA RIVER
HANCOCK 3.1 4.9 6.1 7.7 8.9 20.5 29.1
RANDOLPH 8.6 11.0 13.6 15.0 16.4 22.3 26.5
:NISHNABOTNA RIVER
HAMBURG 9.5 13.2 17.1 20.6 24.2 27.1 31.3
:LITTLE NEMAHA RIVER
AUBURN 4.4 7.6 8.7 13.2 21.0 23.5 24.1
:NORTH FORK BIG NEMAHA RIVER
HUMBOLDT 3.8 4.4 6.2 7.7 12.7 19.3 22.2
:BIG NEMAHA RIVER
FALLS CITY 6.0 7.5 10.4 14.5 18.5 30.5 32.1
:NODAWAY RIVER
CLARINDA 11.0 11.7 12.1 13.4 18.2 21.5 26.4
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:NIOBRARA RIVER
VERDEL 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
:PONCA CREEK
VERDEL 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.8
:MISSOURI RIVER
DECATUR 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.0 14.8
BLAIR 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
OMAHA 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.8
PLATTSMOUTH 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 10.9 10.8
NEBRASKA CITY 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.7 5.6
BROWNVILLE 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.6 20.5
RULO 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.5
:ELKHORN RIVER
NELIGH 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.6
NORFOLK 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3
:NORTH FORK ELKHORN RIVER
PIERCE 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2
:ELKHORN RIVER
PILGER 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.4 6.3 6.3
WEST POINT 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0
WINSLOW 8.8 8.8 8.3 8.2 7.9 7.8 7.7
:LOGAN CREEK
UEHLING 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2
:MAPLE CREEK
NICKERSON 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
:ELKHORN RIVER
WATERLOO 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.4
:PLATTE RIVER
DUNCAN 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
:SHELL CREEK
COLUMBUS 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5
:PLATTE RIVER
NORTH BEND 3.1 3.1 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1
LESHARA 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.6 3.6 3.5
ASHLAND 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.1 13.9 13.8
:SALT CREEK
ROCA 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
LINCOLN (N 27TH S 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
GREENWOOD 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
:WAHOO CREEK
ITHACA 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4
:SALT CREEK
ASHLAND 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
:PLATTE RIVER
LOUISVILLE 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9
:BIG BLUE RIVER
SURPRISE 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
:LINCOLN CREEK
SEWARD 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6
:BIG BLUE RIVER
SEWARD 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
:WEST FORK BIG BLUE RIVER
DORCHESTER 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3
:BIG BLUE RIVER
CRETE 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.6
:TURKEY CREEK
WILBER 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
DE WITT 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1
:BIG BLUE RIVER
BEATRICE 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
BARNESTON 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
FAIRBURY 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7
:MAPLE RIVER
MAPLETON 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0
:LITTLE SIOUX RIVER
TURIN 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.4 6.2
:SOLDIER RIVER
PISGAH 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9
:BOYER RIVER
LOGAN 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8
:WEEPING WATER CREEK
UNION 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
:EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER
RED OAK 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.6
:WEST NISHNABOTNA RIVER
HANCOCK 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9
RANDOLPH 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.8
:NISHNABOTNA RIVER
HAMBURG 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.2
:LITTLE NEMAHA RIVER
AUBURN 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3
:NORTH FORK BIG NEMAHA RIVER
HUMBOLDT 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4
:BIG NEMAHA RIVER
FALLS CITY 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3
:NODAWAY RIVER
CLARINDA 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/OAX FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.
THIS IS THE FINAL OUTLOOK.
PEARSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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