586  
FNUS73 KLBF 151614  
FWSLBF  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR ASH CREEK NORTH UNIT...NGPC  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE  
1014 AM CST WED NOV 15 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0000 CST ON NOVEMBER 16.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL  
WEATHER SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT THE NWS NORTH PLATTE OFFICE AT (308) 532-0921  
(OR 1-800-603-3562), IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS WITH  
THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND  
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXIT THE ROCKIES, THE SETUP WILL  
RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND GENERALLY FAIR SKIES FOR NEBRASKA.  
THE WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AS HUMIDITY WILL  
STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 35 PERCENT. WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING,  
PEAK AROUND LUNCHTIME AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN SLOWLY TAPER  
THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN THE OVERALL SLOPE TOWARD THE RIVER TO  
THE NORTH AND THE SOUTHERLY WINDS, DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY BE ENHANCED  
AND RESULT IN LOCALIZED WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS THAN FORECAST. THE  
HIGHEST WINDS, HOWEVER, SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE RIDGETOPS.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.  
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 19 MPH.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 19 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH  
INCREASING TO 35 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 21 TO 30 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 VERY LOW TO MODERATE.  
 
TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........67 62 53 49 47 42 40 37 32 29 32 39  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............30 32 34 37 41 45 49 53 56 57 56 53  
RH..............81 78 72 67 59 55 50 44 42 40 42 48  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 10 13 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 14 14  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 25 30 30 35 35 35 30 30 30 30 25  
EYE LVL WND DIR.SE S S S S S S S S S S S  
EYE LVL WND SPD.6 8 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10  
EYE LVL WND GST.15 25 30 30 35 35 35 30 30 30 30 25  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.21 22 22 23 25 28 30 30 28 26 25 24  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.  
MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 17 MPH DECREASING TO  
AROUND 7 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 17 MPH DECREASING TO  
AROUND 7 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTS UP TO  
30 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15  
MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.  
 
TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........43 43 44 44 46 50 52 52 53 54 56 62  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............51 49 48 48 47 46 45 44 44 43 42 41  
RH..............52 56 60 60 63 68 70 73 76 79 82 82  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..13 14 14 14 14 13 11 10 9 7 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 30 30 30 25 25 20 15 15 15 10  
EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S SW SW SW SW  
EYE LVL WND SPD.10 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 7 5 5 4  
EYE LVL WND GST.25 25 30 30 30 25 25 20 15 15 15 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.24 24 25 24 22 18 15 14 14 14 12 10  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
 

 
FORECASTER...SNIVELY  
REQUESTED BY...KELLY CORMAN  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1718866.0/LBF  
.EMAIL KELLY.CORMAN@NEBRASKA.GOV  
 
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