037  
FXUS63 KFSD 240332  
AFDFSD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD  
1032 PM CDT MON APR 23 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON APR 23 2018  
 
APRIL SHOWERS (RAIN NOT SNOW) ARE ON THE WAY! THE NEXT MEASURABLE  
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY  
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS.  
LATEST MODEL RUNS PLACE THE HIGHEST QPF (0.10"-0.60") ALONG AND WEST  
OF THE I-29 CORRIDOR. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A DEEP AND RICH BL  
MOISTURE ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER, STARTING IN THE  
NIGHTTIME AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WITH THAT  
SAID, BETTER CHANCES FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD, LIKELY ALONG THE  
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY; ALBEIT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 COULD  
SEE SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN. MOST OF THE INSTABILITY REMAINS  
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, THEREFORE ONLY RAIN CHANCES  
ARE ANTICIPATED.  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE MO RIVER AFTER 07Z  
TUESDAY, THEN SPREADING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY IN THE EVENING HOURS.  
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, TUESDAY WILL MAINLY IN THE 50S  
TO MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST IOWA.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON APR 23 2018  
 
A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES IN BY WEDNESDAY, LEAVING THE REGION DRY  
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REACH  
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.  
 
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST  
FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO IOWA BY THURSDAY. LOOKS TO BE A FAST-MOVING  
SYSTEM, THEREFORE NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION. AS  
FOR NOW, BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF  
A LINE FROM SUX TO WORTHINGTON TO MARSHALL WHICH IS WHERE BETTER  
OMEGA LIFTING AND SATURATED LAYER PERSIST. LOW-LEVEL LAYERS SHOULD  
REMAIN SATURATED SO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED  
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON, BRINGING MORE SUNSHINE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING.  
 
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED, TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN  
FEATURE. BUILDING HEIGHTS MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,  
LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY. WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS  
PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S. MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES  
IN TEMPERATURES, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES; THEREFORE HAVE  
RAISED TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY TO MONDAY BY BLENDING SUPERBLEND  
AND CONSRAW TO PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT MON APR 23 2018  
 
SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BEGIN TO  
IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AFTER 09Z TONIGHT  
ALONG WITH LOW END VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS. KHON STANDS THE BEST  
CHANCE TO SEE MEASURABLE RAIN, WITH KFSD AND KSUX LIKELY MORE HIT  
OR MISS SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN. WINDS WILL ALSO SWITCH TO OUT OF  
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND BECOME BREEZY AT  
TIMES.  
 

 
   
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...05  
LONG TERM...05  
AVIATION...KALIN  
 
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