131  
FXUS63 KFSD 162009  
AFDFSD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD  
309 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018  
 
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED AROUND SIOUX CITY WILL CONTINUE  
TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THRU THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT  
HOURS. THIS FAIRLY WOUND UP AND ROBUST LOW HAS RESULTED IN A  
PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-90  
CORRIDOR FROM SIOUX FALLS EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS  
HAS LARGELY BROKEN UP AS IT LOOSES ITS OVERALL DYNAMICS. WITH  
THIS SAID, ADDITIONAL MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN HIT OR MISS SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THRU EARLY EVENING WITH A  
MINIMALLY/NON CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.  
 
BY MID TO LATE EVENING, PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD QUICKLY DROP  
OFF WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THESE CLEAR  
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR THE  
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH ITS  
EXTENT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN  
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
 
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS  
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS, COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, WILL  
LEAD TO MORE SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS AND  
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 80S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018  
 
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY BEFORE OUR ATTENTION WILL  
TURN TO OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN  
PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD AND SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME, OVERALL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES  
POINT TO THE SEVERE RISK BEING RATHER LOW ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS  
MAY ONCE AGAIN PICK UP SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AN OVERALL  
DRIER TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION  
SITS IN A MORE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ON THE BACKSIDE OF  
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW.  
 
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY'S READINGS,  
OR MOSTLY 80S FOR HIGHS, BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF  
YEAR ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018  
 
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND  
EAST WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE MAIN BAND OF  
PRECIPITATION ALONG I-90 NEAR AND EAST OF KFSD AS IT DOES SO OVER  
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN HIT OR MISS  
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING  
HOURS HOWEVER, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-29. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR  
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND MAY  
RESULT IN SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENT AND  
LOCATION OF THIS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE OFFICIAL MENTION IN THE TAF  
AT THIS TIME BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN FUTURE ISSUANCES.  
 

 
   
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...KALIN  
LONG TERM...KALIN  
AVIATION...KALIN  
 
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