338  
FXUS63 KLBF 181135  
AFDLBF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE  
635 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2018  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA  
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING  
AND OVERNIGHT. AS IT PUSHES THROUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SPC HAS PARTS OF  
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 TO 2000  
J/KG ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOWEVER LOW SHEAR VECTORS  
ONLY AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR  
SEVERE WEATHER TO SUSTAIN IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. THAT BEING SAID A  
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE  
WEATHER IS LESS LIKELY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. IF ANY STORMS WERE TO  
BECOME SEVERE CONFIDENCE IS GREATER ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS  
WITH THE EARLIER INITIATION OF STORMS. AS STORMS PROGRESS THROUGH  
THE EVENING THE STORM MODE WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR  
MULTICELLULAR STORMS WITH MANY COMPETING UPDRAFTS MAKING IT HARD FOR  
ANY STORMS TO SUSTAIN A SEVERE POTENTIAL.  
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS  
PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD  
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL  
NEBRASKA IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THROUGH  
THE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
 
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL  
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SLOW MOVING STORMS AND  
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER POTENTIAL. WPC HAS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH  
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2018  
 
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S.  
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN THE  
80S THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN ANOTHER CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2018  
 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL, EXCEPT FOR SOME SWATHS OF FEW-SCT MID  
CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEB AS SHOWN BY SATELLITE.  
OTHERWISE, A FEW SITES ARE SHOWING EVIDENCE OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF LINCOLN COUNTY EAST AND NORTHEAST. REDUCTIONS TO  
VISIBILITIES GENERALLY VARY BETWEEN IFR TO 6SM. THREAT FOR FOG  
SHOULD REMAINED LIMITED TO EARLY MORNING. THEREAFTER CONCERNS TURN  
TO THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING COLD FRONT WITH BEST  
CHANCES/GREATEST POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT WITH GREATEST  
AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS OUTSIDE FAR WESTERN NEB EVENING-LATE  
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN BOTH KLBF AND KVTN TAFS WITH  
GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN THE KVTN TERMINAL BEING AFFECTING THIS TAF  
PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN DECREASE LATE TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ  
LONG TERM...GOMEZ  
AVIATION...ET  
 
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