652  
FXUS63 KLBF 231143  
AFDLBF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE  
543 AM CST THU NOV 23 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST THU NOV 23 2017  
 
WILL CONTINUE WITH QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE NEAR TERM. A STRONG  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS  
WILL KEEP NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DRY AND MILD THROUGH THURSDAY  
NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW 850 MB  
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 12 TO 17 C RANGE BY THURSDAY EVENING.  
THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER  
60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  
 
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
US KEEPING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MILD. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO  
ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW 40S, NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS  
TIME OF YEAR. WESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE BY EARLY FRIDAY  
MORNING AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. EXPECT  
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BY 7AM  
FRIDAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST THU NOV 23 2017  
 
THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN TO CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL  
NEBRASKA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THEN BRIEFLY TURN SOUTHWESTERLY  
AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WEST. THE TROUGH IS SHOWN TO POSSIBLY  
BRING LIGHT QPF TO NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE  
MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY, BUT OVERALL, THE PATTERN LOOKS DRY.  
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED LOOK TO REMAIN LARGELY ABOVE  
AVERAGE AND IN SOME CASES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.  
 
THE LATEST 00Z SOLUTIONS STILL INDICATE THE PASSAGE OF A  
CLIPPER/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE  
DOES INDICATE WEAK CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING  
SOME 5-10 DEGREES, BUT THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE  
WIND POTENTIAL. H85 WINDS LATE MORNING ARE ADVERTISED BY THE  
VARIOUS MODELS TO REACH 40-50KTS, MIXING AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE  
HIGH WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE FORECAST AREA. THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED, SO DESPITE SOME  
LIFT AND POSSIBLE HIGH CLOUDS, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WE  
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE GRASSLAND RANGE FIRE RISK FRIDAY. THE  
LATEST SOLUTIONS STILL INDICATE NON-CRITICAL RH WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER  
WIND SPEEDS. ALSO, WE'RE LOOKING AT ABOUT 9:50 OF LOW ANGLE SUNLIGHT  
AND WHEN CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL OF MID OR HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE  
FRONT, ANY SUBSTANTIAL SHADING OF THE FUELS WILL SHUT DOWN LARGE  
FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL, EVEN IF 30 MPH WINDS COME TO FRUITION. WILL  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.  
 
IN POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS, TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE  
COOLEST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, BUT AT THAT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE.  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TEMPERATURES REBOUND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST  
TOWARD THE PLAINS AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT  
COLD FRONT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
60S TO LOWER 70S BOTH DAYS. THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS WILL  
COMBINE WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS TO INCREASE THE THREAT OF  
LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF  
CHOICE AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, WE MAY SEE RED FLAG WARNING  
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR WESTERN FIRE ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL  
MONITOR CLOSELY AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CROSS  
MOUNTAIN GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN CO/SOUTHERN WY. IN THESE CASES  
MIXING IS USUALLY UNDER-REPRESENTED BY THE MODELS AND THE STRENGTH  
OF THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW IS AS WELL.  
 
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND A MID LEVEL  
TROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED  
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS  
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE ON HOW THE TROUGH WILL PLAY OUT, BUT ONE  
COMMON THEME IS THAT THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT  
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF LIGHT QPF LATE MONDAY INTO  
EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES TREND  
SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-WEEK BUT APPEAR TO WARM ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY  
AS THE WESTERN RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST THU NOV 23 2017  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN US THROUGH THE  
NEXT DAY. AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY  
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL  
START TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A  
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO  
20 KNOTS AT KVTN BY 10Z TO 12Z FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...KULIK  
LONG TERM...JACOBS  
AVIATION...KULIK  
 
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