797  
FXUS63 KLBF 232311  
AFDLBF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE  
611 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2017  
 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS, GENERALLY TRANSLUCENT  
TO OPAQUE, ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEB  
STREAMING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LATEST  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MODEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING INTO  
THE SOUTHWEST US FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST.  
 
MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE LAST DAY IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE WITH  
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. A COLD PATTERN WILL THEN PREVAIL  
TUESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WHEREIN BELOW NORMAL HIGH  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, OFTEN 10 DEGREES OR MORE  
BELOW THEIR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES.  
 
THE FORMER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK QUICKLY THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS  
REGION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THE EARLY MORNING AND  
PROMOTE SLIGHT CHANCES/CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN-HALF  
OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A DRY  
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE THAT WILL NEED TO BE  
OVERCOME FIRST. CHANCES ARE LOW, POPS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25%,  
ATTRIBUTABLE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE AND GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE WAVE  
AND OVERALL FORCING. OTHERWISE, WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES ARE  
EXPECTED TONIGHT COMPARED TO THIS MORNING ATTRIBUTABLE TO  
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND WINDS STAYING ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. LOWS  
ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. GENERALLY DRY  
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL ON MONDAY WITH A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND  
CLOUDS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE AND MOVE FROM FAR  
EASTERN WY TO CENTRAL SD BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL  
THEN WEAKEN DURING THE DAY WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING MONDAY  
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL  
ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND WILL EXIT THE LOCAL  
FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2017  
 
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A  
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WITH  
CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILING AND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US.  
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY MONDAY  
NIGHT TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE  
TUESDAY. THEREAFTER, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST AND  
EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEAR THE ARKLATEX  
REGION WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON  
MONDAY AFTER A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY  
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. A POSITIVE PV ANOMALY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK  
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN MONDAY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS  
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO SD TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW WILL  
HAVE DEVELOPED AND BE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY  
NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN SOME TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN  
HIGH PLAINS AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE FOUR  
CORNERS REGION. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A LOWER  
TROPOSPHERIC DEFORMATION ZONE AND FRONTOGENESIS TO PROMPT  
INCREASED CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.  
THERMAL PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET  
SNOW TUESDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE REINFORCING COLD AIR  
THAT WILL BE TRANSPORTED SOUTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE. DRY CONDITIONS  
ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE  
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED THURSDAY-SUNDAY AS  
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES INFLUENCE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE  
REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
ROCKIES TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT.  
THEREAFTER, MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH  
DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHWEST US AND  
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN LATE BY FRIDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH THEN CLOSED  
LOW WILL PROMPT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2017  
 
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY  
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 30 KTS UNTIL 03Z, THEN DIMINISH  
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT THE KVTN  
TERMINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL  
ALSO CROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH WINDS  
TURNING NORTHWEST WITH 15-25 KT WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 

 
   
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...ET  
LONG TERM...ET  
AVIATION...ROBERG  
 
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