703  
FXUS63 KLBF 232015 CCA  
AFDLBF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE  
315 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017  
 
A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE TETONS WILL APPROACH THE BLACK HILLS  
TONIGHT. THE RAP, HRRR AND HRRR EXP SUGGEST AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM  
MAY AFFECT PINE RIDGE. STRONG HEATING AND A DRYLINE BULGE ACROSS  
PINE RIDGE MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS  
SUGGESTED BY THE NAM.  
 
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST USES BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED DATA FOR LOWS  
IN THE 50S AND 60S TONIGHT. THE SAME STRATEGY MONDAY PRODUCES HIGHS  
INTO 90S TO LOW 100S. H700MB RISE TO 12C AT NORTH PLATTE AND  
APPROACH 14C AT VALENTINE WHERE WARMEST HIGHS WILL OCCUR. DRY AIR  
SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW 100 IN MOST AREAS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017  
 
H700MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WARM TO 13-14C AT NORTH PLATTE AND 15C  
AT VALENTINE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS OF 100 TO 105 IN THESE  
AREAS. A HEAT ADVISORY WOULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN SOME AREAS. FOR  
THIS FORECAST IT WOULD APPEAR TO BE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF  
HIGHWAY 83.  
 
OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS SHOULD FIRE NEAR OR NORTH OF THE SD LATE  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. H500MB WINDS ARE ABOUT 15KT AND THE STORMS WILL  
FIRE ALONG A COLD FRONT.  
 
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DRIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT  
AND WEDNESDAY. THE SREF WAS SIGNALING HEAVY RAIN AND WAS THE FASTEST  
MODEL WITH MOISTURE RETURN. THE GFS AND NAM ARE MUCH MORE MODEST.  
THE DROUGHT COULD CERTAINLY LIMIT RAINFALL AS IT HAS THIS MONTH IN  
MANY LOCATIONS. POPS ARE 30-50 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH  
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETREATS WEST INTO THE  
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND H700MB TEMPERATURE FALL TO 10-12C SUPPORTING  
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.  
 
RAIN CHANCES ARE MOSTLY ISOLATED AFTER WEDNESDAY AND NONE OF THE  
MODELS ARE SIGNALING SIGNFICANT MOISTURE RETURN. THE NORTHWEST  
FLOW WILL BE STRONG AND BACK DOOR HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT  
MOISTURE RETURN UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH.  
A SECOND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017  
 
A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE TETONS WILL APPROACH THE BLACK HILLS  
TONIGHT. THE RAP, HRRR AND HRRR EXP SUGGEST AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM  
MAY AFFECT PINE RIDGE 06Z-09Z. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED THIS  
AFTERNOON, TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...CDC  
LONG TERM...CDC  
AVIATION...CDC  
 
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