427  
FXUS63 KLBF 270841  
AFDLBF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE  
341 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017  
 
TIMING TOOLS SUGGEST THE AREA OF RAIN ON RADAR IS MOVING EAST AT 40  
MPH AND WILL EXIT NCNTL NEB AROUND 8 OR 9 AM. THE BLEND OF THE RAP  
AND HRRR MODELS KEEPS A LIKELY POP IN PLACE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS  
MORNING AND ISOLATED POP THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCE  
IS THE RESULT OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE MORNING POP COULD BE TOO  
GENEROUS. THE FORECAST RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING ARE UNDER REVIEW  
AND MAY BE UPDATED DEPENDING ON THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE RAIN  
SHOWN ON RADAR.  
 
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST USES THE SAME BLEND LISTED ABOVE PLUS BIAS  
CORRECTION FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE RAP MODEL SHOWS H700MB  
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND 0C BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL  
KEEP SKIES CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  
 
SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT WITH PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH  
THE ROCKIES. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE PLUS BIAS CORRECTION SUGGESTED LOWS  
IN THE 40S AND NEAR 40 ACROSS THE WRN SANDHILLS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE DOWN FROM  
CANADA AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION  
THROUGH MID-WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE  
WEST.  
 
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES ON THURSDAY WITH A WEAK  
SHORTWAVE. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN  
NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. COOLER  
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS  
IN THE MID 70S, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2017  
 
LOCAL RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHWEST NEB, EASTERN NEB PANHANDLE, AND THE WESTERN SANDHILLS  
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN GARDEN AND ARTHUR COUNTIES.  
SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE  
SOUTHWESTERN SANDHILLS ON SOUTH) WILL CONTINUE AND FILL IN  
OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NEB AND SPREAD INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEB  
THROUGH THE SMALL HOURS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO  
TOMORROW MORNING WITH CHANCES THEN DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE SUB-VFR DURING THE SMALL  
HOURS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NEB. CURRENT THINKING IS BOTH  
KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY SUB-VFR CEILINGS  
BEGINNING IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATE  
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...CDC  
LONG TERM...GOMEZ  
AVIATION...ET  
 
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