669  
FXUS63 KLBF 241155  
AFDLBF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE  
655 AM CDT SUN SEP 24 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SUN SEP 24 2017  
 
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE  
UTAH/NEVADA BORDER WITH A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING  
SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. EAST OF THE TROUGH, A BLOCKING  
HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE LP OF MICHIGAN WITH A LOW SOUTH OF THE  
HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH AMPLITUDE SOUTH  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDED FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO MANITOBA  
CANADA. WITHIN THIS FLOW, NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED AND HAVE  
LED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NIGHT  
ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE EXCEPTION  
WAS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH HAVE  
REMAINED DRY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WERE IN THE UPPER  
40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE, TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE EAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SUN SEP 24 2017  
 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH HIGHS  
TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. WITH RESPECT TO HIGHS  
TODAY: WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 12  
HOURS, TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY SEE A SLIGHT DIURNAL INCREASE  
THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY, WE SAW HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.  
WITH THE FRONT FARTHER EAST AND OVERCAST SKIES TODAY, READINGS  
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 50S. THE MET GUIDANCE WAS COOLEST OF THE  
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE TODAY AND WAS UTILIZED FOR THE FORECAST.  
STRONG MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION, WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER  
THIS MORNING, DECREASING THE THREAT FOR PCPN TEMPORARILY. THIS MID  
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING INTO  
THE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL  
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO  
THE SURFACE FRONT BEING PUSHED FURTHER EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL  
LOW LIFTS FROM UTAH INTO WYOMING. AS FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:  
WITH THE FORECAST AREA BEING WELL BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY, SURFACE  
INSTABILITY WILL BE NIL. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME LIMITED ELEVATED  
INSTABILITY PER H800 LIFTED INDICES, ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF  
THE FORECAST AREA. THAT BEING SAID, DID INCLUDE A MENTION OF  
THUNDER IN THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE  
IN THE 40S, WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE NERN PANHANDLE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SUN SEP 24 2017  
 
A CLOSED H5 LOW OVER WY, EMBEDDED IN A LARGE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH,  
TRAVELS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO FAR WESTERN ONTARIO BY  
TUESDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW PASSES BY, WESTERN NEBRASKA TRANSITIONS  
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. THE TROUGH REFOCUSES OVER THE  
GREAT LAKES WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES LATE WEEK, PLACING  
NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT EXITS  
FAR SOUTHEAST NEB. MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OFF THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY, AND A SECOND HIGH DROPS FROM THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS FRIDAY.  
 
MONDAY... STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN WY/SD,  
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE SFC LOW IN IA, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT  
CONTRIBUTE TO RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH THE  
GREATEST MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN NEB AND LITTLE SURFACE FORCING,  
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PRECIP TOTALS IS SMALLER THAN OVER THE WEEKEND.  
LOWERED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE TO  
ACCOUNT FOR CONTINUOUS CLOUD COVER, OFF-AND-ON RAIN SHOWERS, AND  
STRONG CAA/NORTH WINDS. H85 TEMPS STRUGGLE TO SURPASS 5C. HIGHS IN  
THE LOWER/MID 50S EQUATE TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... THE SUCCESSION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURES  
AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP MOISTURE CHANCES AT BAY. PRIMARILY  
NORTHERLY FLOW AT H85 PREVENTS WAA ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS  
STAY NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS  
IN THE LOWER 40S. LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS NW NEB. TUESDAY  
MORNING, BUT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY PRECLUDES ANY REAL FROST  
CONCERNS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN SEP 24 2017  
 
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS MORNING, THEN  
RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS OF 1000 TO 2000  
FT AGL THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH IFR CIGS BELOW 1000 FT  
AGL TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER  
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER  
LONG TERM...SNIVELY  
AVIATION...BUTTLER  
 
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