214
FXUS63 KLBF 040843 AAC
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
342 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
DISCUSSION
H5 U/A ANALYSIS SHOWING BROAD RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
CONUS WITH FAIRLY STRONG...RETROGRADING LOW OVER H.BAY REGION. THIS
IS LEAVING HIGH PLAINS IN ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOSED
CIRCULATION SHOWING UP IN H7 PLOTS ACROSS EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
PROFILERS SHOWING THIS MOVING EAST OF UPPER MO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW AND WEAK UPGLIDE PROVIDING ENOUGH
LIFT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN CWA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
STRATUS ALSO CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE CWA AND SHOULD OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF THE AREA AGAIN BY SUNRISE ALONG WITH COOL ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE
OF LOW. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITION IN ACROSS MUCH OF CWA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND USED A
MET/MAV BLEND...THOUGH COOLER MET GUIDANCE MAY END UP DOING BETTER
IN FAR EAST IF CLOUDS PERSIST WELL INTO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AND LEAVE FAIRLY QUIET
AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THIS HOLIDAY EVENING. HAVE ISO POPS
IN FAR WEST IN CASE CONVECTION MAY LEAK OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
THE WEST BUT THIS REALLY SEEMS UNLIKELY TO SURVIVE INTO LBF CWA WITH
LACK OF LLVL JET SUPPORT. RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WEST ON
SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH QUICKLY BEING REPLACED BY DEEPENING LEE TROF
AND THIS SHOULD AGAIN BRING INSTABILITY INTO WESTERN CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND RETURN TO HIGHER POPS IN THE WEST. OVERALL
SHEAR SEEMS BORDERLINE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT K INDEX DOES POINT
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. TEMPS
SHOULD WARM ON SUNDAY AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE
TRANSLATES INTO CENTRAL CONUS THANKS DEEPENING E.PAC TROF. CLASSIC
DAKOTA LOW SETTING UP FOR WED AND THIS COULD BE HOTTEST DAY BEFORE
WEAK FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN CWA. WENT FOR MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS UNDER THE RIDGE THOUGH STRONG HEATING AND LLVL MOISTURE
USUALLY CAN POP SOMETHING IN VCNTY OF SFC BOUNDARY BUT CONFIDENCE
WAY TOO LOW FOR THAT ATTM.
AVIATION...
THE COMBINATION OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHERLY AND
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW CLOUDINESS THIS
MORNING AND TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KVTN TERMINAL
THROUGH 16Z THIS MORNING...WITH PERIODIC VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A MILE
WITH PATCHY FOG. AT THE KLBF TERMINAL...MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. ONCE THIS DECK PUSHES EAST OF THE
AREA...STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKELY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 16Z BEFORE LIFTING. SURFACE
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A MILE OR LESS ARE LIKELY AT THE KLBF TERMINAL
THROUGH 16Z. AT BOTH TERMINALS...CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO 2 TO 4
THOUSAND FEET AGL AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO ABOVE 6SM FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AFTER 16Z. MORE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...AS EASTERLY WINDS
DEVELOP AFTER 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND MAY PERIODICALLY REACH IFR LEVELS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
13/CLB
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