038
FXUS63 KLBF 022333
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
633 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
- HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AN ISOLATED TORNADO
POSSIBLE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERNS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES
OVER 3000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 25KTS AND PWATS UP TO 1.5
INCHES NEAR THE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE
FRONT, DRAPED FROM NEAR OSHKOSH, THROUGH STAPLETON AND EWING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH STRONG UPSCALE GROWTH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. INITIALLY, STORMS WILL BE DISCRETE, MORE LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WHILE STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE, HAIL AT LEAST 1
INCH IN DIAMETER, POTENTIALLY LARGER, WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. AS
STORMS EVOLVE INTO A LINE, DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 65 MPH WILL BECOME
THE MAIN THREAT. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT ISN'T THE BEST FOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT, THERE WILL BE HIGHER HELICITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER
300) WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE,
A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHEN SUPERCELLS REMAIN DISCRETE
ENOUGH TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE ENVIRONMENT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE STORMS START TO WEAKEN, BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD, AND UNORGANIZED.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INITIALLY FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
LINCOLN AND CUSTER COUNTY, WHERE THE 12Z CAMS SUGGEST.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST COLORADO
ARE SHOWN TO MEET UP WITH THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES, AND EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LINCOLN AND CUSTER COUNTY, WHERE A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
00Z THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. THE SANDHILLS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MAY ALSO RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, THOUGH FFG VALUES ARE MUCH HIGHER. OTHER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ARE ALSO AT A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING, SO
WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WHERE STORMS FOCUS THIS EVENING.
SOME HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
60S AND A BREEZY NORTH WIND 15 TO 30 MPH. SHOWERS CHANCES REMAIN
LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES, SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH AND END AROUND 18Z.
CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS LATE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
NEAR DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY, AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LIFTS INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID 60S, THOUGH THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AND
NEXT WEEKEND, ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS HIGHS WARM
INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ALONG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANDHILLS, EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS ARE BRINGING TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS. IN AND AROUND THESE STORMS, IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT, RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SPORADIC THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER
CONDITIONS FAVOR REMAINING AT VFR. OVERNIGHT, RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH GUSTY WINDS PERSISTING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND MID MORNING, BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ038-059.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...RICHIE
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