095  
FXUS63 KLBF 172346  
AFDLBF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE  
646 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
 
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM  
NEAR O'NEILL TO GRANT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS A  
COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE IN ABUNDANCE WITH  
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM BUD MOVING INTO THE REGION, SFC  
DEW POINTS ARE NEAR 70F AND PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM 1.5-2 INCHES  
CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 TO 3000 J/KG THIS  
AFTERNOON FROM NEAR OSHKOSH TO O'NEILL AND POINTS SOUTH.  
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP BETWEEN 2PM AND 4PM NEAR THE  
FRONT. BULK SHEAR VALUES GREATER THAN 40 KT WILL HELP STORMS  
ORGANIZE WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED. THE THREAT TURNS TO  
HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN CHERRY AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES  
WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FELL WITH THE STORMS ON SATURDAY  
NIGHT. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME FLASH FLOODING WITH THE STORMS  
OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE BUT  
THE FLOODING WILL BE LIMITED TO MORE URBAN AREAS OR AREAS WHERE  
STORMS ARE TRAINING. LATER IN THE EVENING, THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. STORMS  
WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE FARTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT STILL  
COULD CONTAIN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DUE TO THE HEAVY  
RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA LAST NIGHT, HAVE ISSUED A FLASH  
FLOOD WATCH DUE TO THE POTENTIALLY FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
 
A PATTERN SHIFT TO RAINY AND COOL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE  
AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  
A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE  
WEEK AS WELL. AGREE WITH WPC ISSUING A MODERATE RISK FOR  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST  
NEBRASKA, AND A SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE. STILL APPEARS THAT BY LATER  
THURSDAY, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE RECEIVED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF  
RAINFALL.  
 
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT SOME BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE  
WEEKEND, BUT STILL MAY BE SOME SCATTERED RAINFALL. HIGHS THROUGH  
THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S, WITH UPPER  
70S AND 80S RETURNING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
 
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THIS EVENING. TO THE  
NORTH OF THE FRONT, WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS AND IFR CONDITIONS  
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN  
NEBRASKA. THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS  
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO  
BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ004-094.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...ALLEN  
LONG TERM...ALLEN  
AVIATION...TAYLOR  
 
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