148
FXUS63 KLBF 072053
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
253 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
SYNOPSIS
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM SWRN KS INTO NERN KS THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE WERE IN THE
70S...WHILE 60S WERE COMMON NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
DISCUSSION
NEAR TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGES
ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES.
FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY OVER NERN
AND SWRN KS...WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT. STALLING ACROSS SWRN
NEBRASKA TO NERN NEBRASKA BY MORNING. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXISTS IN ERN AND CENTRAL KS PER SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTS PROGRESSION NWD TONIGHT. HAVE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS IN THE SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS AS STRATUS
FORMATION LOOKS LIKE A DECENT BET. ALSO...INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS
AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS. SKIES WILL REMAIN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR SUNDAY...AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE
EXPECTED...WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
HAVE CONTINUED PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...EVEN IN LIGHT OF ONLY MEAGER DYNAMICS. THE NRN
BRANCH OF THE JET WILL SLIDE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THE SRN BRANCH WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER KS/SRN NEBRASKA. WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT WILL FOCUS POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS. WILL GO WITH ONLY 20 POPS AT THIS
JUNCTURE...GIVEN THE FRONTAL POSITION AND WEAK DYNAMICS.
ON MONDAY...PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
AREA...FORCING THE FRONT INTO THE OZARKS AND SRN PLAINS. ONGOING
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S LOOK ON TRACK ATTM. BY MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST...ALLOWING SRLY FLOW TO INCREASE. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS FORMATION TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY REMAIN THE MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE IN THE
OUTER PERIODS. RUN TO RUN MODEL CONTINUITY DOWNRIGHT BAD THIS
MORNING. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVERTISED IN THE MODELS YESTERDAY FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND...IS NOW
ABSENT FROM THIS MORNING'S MODEL SOLUTIONS. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO
SOLN NOW LIFT AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ONE MAJOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO SOLN IS
FRONTAL TIMING MIDWEEK AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPS. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE SLOWER EURO SOLN...IN LINE WITH NATL GUIDANCE...WHICH
FAVORS A SLOWER FROPA INTO LATE THURSDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...OPTED
FOR WARMER READINGS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COOLING
TEMPS BACK INTO THE 50S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL ANTICIPATING
A DRY FROPA THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS THE OPEN TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
AVIATION
WITH LOWEST LEVEL WIND SWINGING AROUND TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FOG/MIST AND/OR STRATUS TONIGHT.
STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM SHORT RANGE SIMULATIONS SHOWS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MARGINAL CEILINGS IN THE PLATTE VALLEY EAST OF LBF. SINCE
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE GUIDANCE...WE WILL
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE LBF TAF FOR NOW. HOWEVER...IT WILL BEAR
WATCHING. OUTSIDE OF THE PLATTE VALLEY...UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE
PUBLIC
BUTTLER
AVIATION
SPRINGER
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