055  
FXUS63 KLBF 272353 AAA  
AFDLBF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE  
653 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017  
 
THE SREF...HRRR...HRRREXP AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST ONE MORE ROUND OF  
FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF  
HIGHWAY 83 ACROSS NCNTL NEB. THIS ONE LOOKS MORE LIKE AN ADVECTION  
UPSLOPE FOG EVENT BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST VISIBILITY COULD FALL TO  
1/4 MILE. AREAS OF FOG ARE IN THE FORECAST.  
 
THE RAIN EVENT FOR TUESDAY CONTINUES ON TRACK. THERE HAVE BEEN ONLY  
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY REGARDING TIMING. THE MODEL  
CONSENSUS IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF THE RAIN MOVING IN AFTER  
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  
 
THE RAP MODEL INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE TO AROUND  
0.75 INCHES WHICH IS ABOVE 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND A VERY MODEST  
30KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TONIGHT AIMING THE MOISTURE UP THE HIGH  
PLAINS. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY UNTIL SEVERE  
WEATHER GETS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THEREAFTER EASTERLY  
UPSLOPE WINDS WILL DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE STORM AFFECTING WRN AND  
NCNTL NEB.  
 
THE FORECAST USES A BLENDED APPROACH FOR RAINFALL. THE SREF AND GEF  
WERE THE WETTEST SOLNS. THESE MODELS WERE ABLE TO FOCUS MORE  
MOISTURE ADVECTION FARTHER NORTH.  
 
TEMPERATURES...WINDS AND DEW POINTS ARE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE PLUS  
BIAS CORRECTION FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE  
40S AND 50S TUESDAY WHICH WAS VERY CLOSE TO A BLEND DETERMINISTIC  
MODEL DATA WITH OR WITHOUT BIAS CORRECTION.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017  
 
AN ACTIVE PATTERN THIS WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY, AS A SERIES  
OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS TRACK EAST AND AMPLIFY, CREATING WIDESPREAD  
RAIN IN THE PLAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN ACROSS  
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, BUT ACCUMULATIONS SEEM UNLIKELY AT THIS  
TIME DUE TO MILD TEMPERATURES.  
 
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,  
AND BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING  
WHERE IT WILL HAVE CLOSED OFF. DEEP SOUTHERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL  
FLOW FROM TX TO NE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, WITH BANDS OF RAIN MOVING  
NORTHWARD WITHIN THE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE  
SYSTEM WILL HAVE MIGRATED TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA OR SOUTHERN KANSAS,  
WITH A DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN LOCATED TO IT'S NORTHWEST. IT  
CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT OUR FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS FROM BROKEN BOW  
TO NORTH PLATTE STAND THE BEST SHOT OF GETTING IN ON THIS  
DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION, BUT A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT OF  
THE SYSTEM WOULD MEAN MORE OF THE AREA SEEING PRECIPITATION FROM THE  
BAND. BY THURSDAY THIS WILL ALL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA WITH  
SOME SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON IN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE  
SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THINKING A WIDESPREAD 0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN  
WILL ACCUMULATE FROM THIS FIRST SYSTEM, WITH THE 1.25 INCH AMOUNTS  
MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.  
 
A SECOND SYSTEM TAKES A SIMILAR PATH AND DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO  
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY SATURDAY. IT TOO IS FORECASTED TO CLOSE OFF  
AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE  
FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT THIS TIME  
APPEARING TO RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.  
 
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL  
HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, WILL AVERAGE A BIT  
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD  
COVER AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017  
 
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING  
GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO IFR CATEGORIES  
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AS LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPW OVER WESTERN  
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST.  
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA  
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...CDC  
LONG TERM...TAYLOR  
AVIATION...POWER  
 
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