013
NOUS43 KLBF 151952
PNSLBF
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-162359-
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
252 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2008
..DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
AND
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG SOUTHERN JET STREAM MADE FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER
PATTERN IN APRIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES
MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PLACING WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE PERSISTENT
TRACK...FAVORED SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA FOR
PRECIPITATION...WHICH INCLUDED HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES. THIS PATTERN HAS
PERSISTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MAY WHICH HAS FAVORED A COOL WET
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS FAVORS NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WHICH WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
LOCAL AREAS AFFECTED
AS OF MAY 15TH...ACCORDING TO THE US DROUGHT MONITOR...SEVERE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXISTED WEST OF A LINE FROM RUSHVILLE...TO
ANTIOCH. EAST OF THIS LINE...TO A LINE EXTENDING FROM MERRIMAN...TO
LISCO...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXISTED. MODERATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ALSO EXISTED WEST OF A GRANT...TO WAUNETA LINE.
CLIMATE SUMMARY
APRIL WAS COOLER THAN NORMAL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. FOR THE MOST PART...APRIL WAS WETTER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE EXCEPTION WAS OVER FAR
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WHERE PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH WAS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
6 MONTH PRECIP/INCHES LAST MONTH PRECIP/INCHES
LOCATION NOV-APR NORMAL DEP | APR NORMAL DEP
NORTH PLATTE 5.56 5.27 0.29 | 3.67 1.97 1.70
VALENTINE 4.08 4.91 -0.83 | 1.39 1.97 -0.58
BROKEN BOW 4.80 6.03 -1.23 | 3.61 2.28 1.33
IMPERIAL 3.77 5.61 -1.84 | 2.76 1.94 0.82
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE/DEGREE F
LOCATION FEB NORMAL DEP | MAR NORMAL DEP | APR NORMAL DEP
NORTH PLATTE 29.5 29.4 0.1 | 37.0 38.0 -1.0 | 45.0 48.1 -3.1
VALENTINE 25.4 26.6 -1.2 | 35.5 35.3 0.2 | 44.1 46.1 -2.0
BROKEN BOW 27.5 26.3 1.2 | 36.5 35.1 1.4 | 44.5 45.5 -1.0
IMPERIAL 32.1 30.4 1.7 | 39.7 37.8 1.9 | 46.8 47.6 -0.8
RIVER AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED DUE TO RECENT MOISTURE AND
RUNOFF ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BUT REMAINED BELOW NORMAL. STEADY
AND NEAR NORMAL STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE RIVER BASINS.
RESERVOIR AND LAKE LEVELS
LAKE LEVELS ENDING THE MONTH OF APRIL REMAINED MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR
ENDERS DAM AND LAKE MCCONAUGHY.
LAKE MCCONAUGHY GAINED 17500 ACRE FEET FROM THE PREVIOUS MONTH TO
A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 757700 ACRE FEET. THIS WAS AN INCREASE OF 1.5
PERCENT TO 43.5 PERCENT OF CAPACITY TO END THE MONTH. THIS DOES
HOWEVER COMPARE TO A LAKE ELEVATION 5.2 FEET ABOVE LAST YEARS LAKE
ELEVATION. TO END THE MONTH...LAKE MCCONAUGHY RECORDED THE HIGHEST
RESERVOIR STORAGE SINCE MARCH 2003.
ENDERS DAM RECORDED A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 16900 ACRE FEET WHICH
REMAINED STEADY FROM THE PREVIOUS MONTH WITH 39 PERCENT OF CAPACITY.
RED WILLOW DAM RECORDED A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 26500 ACRE FEET.
RESERVOIR CAPACITY ROSE SLIGHTLY TO 73 PERCENT. RED WILLOW DAM
RECORDED THE HIGHEST RESERVOIR STORAGE TO END THE MONTH SINCE 2000.
OTHER RESERVOIRS WHICH ARE SPRING FED SAW THE USUAL RESERVOIR
RECHARGE. MEDICINE CREEK DAM RECORDED A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 36200
ACRE FEET. RESERVOIR CAPACITY ROSE TO CAPACITY AT 100 PERCENT.
CALAMUS RESERVOIR RECORDED A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 127500 ACRE FEET.
RESERVOIR CAPACITY ROSE TO CAPACITY AT 100 PERCENT. MERRITT
RESERVOIR RECORDED A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 66780 ACRE FEET. RESERVOIR
CAPACITY ROSE TO CAPACITY AT 100 PERCENT.
ALTHOUGH MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK WAS 107 TO 117 PERCENT OF NORMAL TO END
THE MONTH OF APRIL...DUE TO THE ALLOTMENT OF UPSTREAM
RESERVOIRS...DELIVERY OF WATER TO THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM OF
LAKE MCCONAUGHY IS EXPECTED TO ONLY BE 80 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
THEREFORE LIMITED RELEASES FOR CONSERVATION PURPOSES IS PLANNED...AS
LAKE MCCONAUGHY REMAINS AT CRITICALLY LOW LAKE LEVELS GOING INTO THE
IRRIGATION SEASON.
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY LOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT THE MOMENT. THIS IS DUE TO THE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION LIMITING
THE HIGH FIRE DANGER DAYS TYPICAL IN SPRING BEFORE THE MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR SUMMER. THE GROWTH OF COOL SEASON GRASSES
ARE ALSO LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE FUEL FOR
BURNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHERE SHORT TO MIXED
PRAIRIE GRASS STANDS EXIST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO THE REGION FOR THE SUMMER IN THE FORM OF HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS...LIMITING EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY.
FIRE DANGER CAN BE DETERMINED THROUGH EITHER THE 10-HOUR AND
100-HOUR DEAD FUEL MOISTURES...OR THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX
(KBDI). THE KBDI INDEX IS BROKEN INTO FOUR CATEGORIES WHICH ARE USED
TO DETERMINE THE SUSCEPTIBILITY OF GROUND FUELS TO FIRE DANGER. THE
FOUR CATEGORIES AND A BRIEF DESCRIPTIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
LOW...WET WITH LITTLE DANGER OF FIRE INITIATION
MODERATE...DRYING OCCURRING WITH SOME FIRE DANGER
HIGH...GROUND COVER DRY AND WILL BURN READILY
EXTREME...DEAD AND LIVE FUELS WILL BURN READILY
ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA REMAIN ON THE LOW END OF
THE KBDI INDEX THANKS TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS OF LIQUID AND FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. THESE VALUES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MODERATE
CATEGORY IF A PROLONGED DRY AND WARM PERIOD DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY JUNE. A DAILY
GRAPHIC OF THE KBDI INDEX AND DEAD FUEL MOISTURE CAN BE FOUND ON THE
WILDLAND FIRE ASSESSMENT SYSTEM (WFAS) WEB SITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.WFAS.US
OR THE NORTH PLATTE NWS WEB SITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LBF/FORECASTS/FIREWX/FIREWX.PHP
THE NORTH PLATTE NWS WEB SITE ALSO HAS ADDITIONAL DATA AND FORECASTS
RELATED TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS
THE 30 DAY OUTLOOK...AS ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER...CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF NEBRASKA. A SIMILAR STORY HOLDS TRUE FOR
TEMPERATURES...WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW...NORMAL...AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH
THE MONTH OF JUNE.
THE LATEST 90 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUNE...JULY...AND AUGUST...IS FOR
EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD...SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES EXIST FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION WEST OF A LINE FROM
VALENTINE TO OSHKOSH. EAST OF THIS LINE...EQUAL CHANCES EXIST FOR
ABOVE...BELOW...AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT
THIS INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:
CHRIS BUTTLER
CLIMATE SERVICES FOCAL POINT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH PLATTE NE
CHRISTOPHER.BUTTLER@NOAA.GOV
RELATED WEB SITES
LOCAL WEATHER...CLIMATE AND WATER INFORMATION
HTTP:://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LBF
ADDITIONAL RIVER AND RESERVOIR INFORMATION
USGS - HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV
CNPPD - HTTP://CNPPD.COM/LAKE_LEVELS.HTM
US DROUGHT MONITOR
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/INDEX.HTML
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT
INVOLVING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE
EXTENSION SERVICES...USGS...AND THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA PUBLIC POWER
AND IRRIGATION DISTRICT.
NEXT ISSUANCE
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED ON THE THIRD THURSDAY
OF THE MONTH. THE NEXT ISSUANCE WILL BE JUNE 19 2008.
JWS/MM/DP/KAR/CLB
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