485  
FNUS71 KBOX 221135  
FWSBOX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR RAN2 (S RANGE BED)...MASSACHUSETTS ARMY NATIONAL GUARD  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA  
735 AM EDT FRI MAR 22 2024  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON MARCH 22.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL  
WEATHER SERVICE.  
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
 
DRY AND COOL TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS  
AFTERNOON. COULD BE AS EARLY AS 1 PM, BUT NO LATER THAN 3 PM.  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD GO DROP AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT, BUT  
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WHEN THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.  
 
DRY OVERNIGHT WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERING TO ABOUT 80  
PERCENT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY.  
 
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 39.  
MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............5 INCREASING TO 14.  
MIN APPARENT TEMP...16.  
SURFACE WINDS (MPH).WEST WINDS 10 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (26600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO GOOD (48900 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............1.  
ADI.................52 TO 60 DECREASING TO 36 TO 40.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......25 DECREASING TO 20 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON,  
THEN INCREASING TO 25 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........0 1 1 2 3 8 23 35 56 47  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............26 29 31 33 35 37 38 39 39 38  
DEWPOINT........4 3 3 4 5 6 7 9 12 14  
RH..............38 32 30 29 28 27 27 28 32 37  
HEAT INDEX (F)..16 20 22 25 27 30 31 32 32 32  
20 FT WIND DIR..NW W W W W W W SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 12 10 10 10 12 12 10 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.16 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 14  
SURFACE WND DIR.NW W W W W W W SW SW SW  
SURFACE WND SPD.10 10 12 10 10 10 12 12 10 9  
SURFACE WND GST.16 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 14  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.7 4.0 3.5 2.9 2.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW W W W W W SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.18 16 15 13 13 14 14 14 13 13  
LVORI...........1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
ADI.............60 52 49 42 44 50 51 48 40 36  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..49 43 41 35 38 45 48 42 32 27  
VENTRATE CAT....FR FR FR PR PR FR FR FR PR PR  
CEILING (KFT)...25 25 25 25 25 20 25 25 25 25  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 34.  
MAX HUMIDITY........79 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............18 INCREASING TO 26.  
MIN APPARENT TEMP...27.  
SURFACE WINDS (MPH).SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTH 6 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 16 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (21000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (7500 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................8 TO 15.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......20 DECREASING TO 10 EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN  
DECREASING TO 9.0 EARLY DECREASING TO 8.0 LATE  
IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 7.0 DECREASING TO  
6.0 AFTER MIDNIGHT INCREASING TO 7.0 INCREASING  
TO 8.0 EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........61 58 72 65 60 74 68 69 92 91 91 90  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............36 35 34 34 34 34 34 35 34 35 36 37  
DEWPOINT........16 17 19 20 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27  
RH..............43 47 54 56 56 58 61 61 66 66 67 67  
HEAT INDEX (F)..29 28 27 28 28 28 28 30 29 29 30 31  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 14 13 13 13 12 10 10 12 14 15  
SURFACE WND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S  
SURFACE WND SPD.9 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 8  
SURFACE WND GST.14 14 14 13 13 13 12 10 10 12 14 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.9 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 14 14 13 13 12 13 13 14 15 15 16  
LVORI...........2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
ADI.............14 15 12 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 13 14  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..21 17 11 9 9 8 9 9 11 12 12 13  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
CEILING (KFT)...20 10 9.0 8.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 8.0  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY IN THE MORNING, THEN RAIN  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 100 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.  
MIN HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............31 INCREASING TO 46.  
MIN APPARENT TEMP...31.  
SURFACE WINDS (MPH).SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 31 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 18 TO 20  
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 39 MPH LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND  
39 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 17 TO 25 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (8200 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................15 TO 23 INCREASING TO 25 TO 28 IN THE LATE  
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
CEILING (KFT).......6.0 DECREASING TO 0.8.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........92 95 96 97 100 100  
WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE  
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 90 90 90 100 100  
TEMP............38 39 45 48 50 51  
DEWPOINT........29 33 38 42 45 46  
RH..............70 79 76 80 83 83  
HEAT INDEX (F)..31 31 38 41 44 51  
20 FT WIND......SE 10 SE 14 SE 16 S 18 S 20 S 20  
20 FT WIND GUST.17 21 25 29 36 38  
SURFACE WIND....SE 10 SE 14 SE 16 S 18 S 20 S 20  
SURFACE WND GST.17 21 25 29 36 38  
MIX HGT (FT)....800 700 600 600 500 500  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 17 S 20 S 23 S 24 S 25 S 24  
LVORI...........3 3 3 3 3 3  
ADI.............15 21 25 27 28 27  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..12 11 12 12 12 10  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR  
CEILING (KFT)...6.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.5 1.0  
 

 
FORECASTER...NASH  
REQUESTED BY...JOEL CARLSON  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2408164.0/BOX  
.DELDT 03/22/24  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL JOEL.R.CARLSON.NFG@ARMY.MIL  
 
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