677  
FXUS61 KBOX 222035  
AFDBOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA  
435 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
JOSE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS IT VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH,  
BUT STILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS TO EASTERN MA AND RI. LOW  
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY  
SATURDAY AND IT WILL TURN WARM ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS ON TAP SUNDAY INTO THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
 
 
JOSE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY MEANDER FURTHER  
SOUTH GRADUALLY LOSING ITS GRIP ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CYCLONIC  
FLOW AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR BANDS OF SHOWERS  
TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI, BUT THEY WILL BEGIN TO FOCUS  
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA OVERNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES SOUTH.  
 
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THERE WAS A LARGE RANGE IN CURRENT READINGS  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S IN WESTERN  
MA/CT, TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN EASTERN MA AND RI. HOWEVER,  
BY DAYBREAK READINGS SHOULD BALANCE OUT AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH  
CHANGE IN TEMPS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. LOWS BY DAYBREAK  
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
 
 
SATURDAY...  
 
WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A BIT OF  
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY MORNING,  
BUT REGARDLESS THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDS. MODEL CROSS  
SECTIONS INDICATE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF  
SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN MA/WESTERN CT BY MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN 850T  
AROUND +16C LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON  
HIGHS SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. MEANWHILE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE  
BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR, LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO MID  
AFTERNOON BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT BY LATE  
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. GIVEN THE  
LATE RECOVERY WILL GO FOR LATE DAY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S  
IN THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR, BUT KEEP THEM AROUND 70 FOR  
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  
 
SURF:  
 
LINGERING HIGH SEAS FROM LEFT OVER SWELL, OPTED TO ISSUE A HIGH SURF  
ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY ON ALL OCEAN EXPOSED SOUTH AND EAST FACING  
BEACHES. HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE A CONCERN,  
PARTICULARLY NOW THAT MANY BEACHES DO NOT HAVE LIFEGUARDS GIVEN THAT  
THE OFFICIAL SUMMER BEACH SEASON HAS ENDED.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
HIGHLIGHTS...  
 
* RETURN TO SUMMER WARMTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY  
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY MID WEEK  
* WATCHING MARIA, BUT LATEST NHC TRACK KEEPS IT OFFSHORE  
 
JOSE CONTINUES ITS SLOW DISSIPATION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING  
HIGH SURF AND AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SOUTH COASTAL  
BEACHES. CONCERN IS FOR AN INCREASE IN BEACHGOERS THIS WEEKEND, AS  
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE BRINGS RETURN TO WARMER CONDITIONS. KEEP IN  
MIND MANY AREA BEACHES ARE NO LONGER STAFFED WITH LIFEGUARDS THIS  
LATE IN SEPTEMBER!  
 
STILL EXPECTING AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST  
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BESIDES THE RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE  
HEAT, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE  
MERRIMACK AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS, WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A  
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.  
 
STILL EXPECTING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM  
THE EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER  
THAN THIS WEEKEND, STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EITHER, WHICH  
SHOULD BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND.  
 
THIS MID LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PLAY A ROLE IN DELAYING  
THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF MARIA ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IF MARIA  
IS DELAYED LONG ENOUGH, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME FOR A MID LEVEL  
TROUGH AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH MARIA OUT TO SEA. THE TRACK  
OR MARIA SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH SURF  
WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS AND BEACH EROSION. IT'S STILL  
MUCH TO EARLY TO CONFIDENTLY SAY THAT WILL HAPPEN, SINCE WE NEED TO  
ASSESS INTERACTION WITH APPROACHING GREAT LAKES TROUGH/SURFACE COLD  
FRONT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
 
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW END MVFR TO IFR  
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI IN BANDS  
OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. NE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35  
KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH  
SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE, BROKEN VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR CIGS  
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN MA AND CT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN  
TIMING. MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD IMPROVE  
TO VFR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR BY  
MID AFTERNOON. MVFR-IFR CIGS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES  
SOUTHEAST OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE WILL BE SLOWER TO  
IMPROVE, BUT SHOULD SCOUR OUT TOWARDS 00Z EXCEPT FOR THE  
CAPE AND ISLANDS.  
 
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS  
IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE PERSIST TONIGHT.  
 
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SCATTERED TO BROKEN  
CEILINGS WILL MAINLY BE VFR BUT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR ARE  
POSSIBLE.  
 
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  
 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LIGHT WINDS WITH  
SEABREEZES POSSIBLE.  
 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN  
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA. OTHERWISE, VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. JOSE WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN  
BUT STILL BRING GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TO MANY OF OUR WATERS INTO  
THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE  
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WEAKENS. 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR  
OUTER-WATERS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH.  
 
SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERHAPS SOME LEFT OVER  
MARGINAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST OUTER-WATERS  
INTO MID MORNING. OTHERWISE, WIND GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO  
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BUT SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS  
WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS  
FROM LEFT OVER SWELL.  
 
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...  
 
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LOCAL SEABREEZES AS HIGH PRESSURE  
REMAINS OVER WATERS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH  
ACROSS WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH LIGHT E/NE WINDS AND  
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  
 
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY, AND SHOULD FINALLY DROP BELOW 5  
FT ON ALL WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS.  
LINGERING SWELLS FROM JOSE, COMBINED WITH INCREASING SWELLS FROM  
MARIA, WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SEAS BUILDING OVER 5 FT AGAIN ON WATERS  
SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
DIMINISHING SEAS AND SURGE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF  
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT, OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME VERY MINOR  
SPLASH OVER. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION WILL STILL BE A  
CONCERN INTO SATURDAY GIVEN HIGH SEAS JUST OFFSHORE.  
 
SWELLS FROM MARIA MAY INCREASE THE SURF AND ASSOCIATED RIP CURRENT  
RISK ACROSS OUR OCEAN-EXPOSED SOUTH COAST SOMETIME DURING THE FIRST  
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, EVEN THOUGH MARIA MAY EVENTUALLY RECURVE OUT  
TO SEA BEFORE GETTING TOO CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND.  
 

 
   
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ007-019-020-  
022>024.  
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR RIZ006>008.  
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250-  
254.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-236.  
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ251.  
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ255-256.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK  
NEAR TERM...FRANK  
SHORT TERM...FRANK  
LONG TERM...BELK  
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK  
MARINE...BELK/FRANK  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MA Page
The Nexlab RI Page
The Nexlab NH Page
The Nexlab CT Page Main Text Page