707
FXUS61 KBOX 070958
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
558 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2008
SYNOPSIS
THE REMNANTS OF HANNA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE...AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND LATER
TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING WARM DRY WEATHER. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TUESDAY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FOLLOWED BY DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
WITH HANNA PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST...ALL SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO
AN END THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW SOLAR MIXING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS 12-14C MIDDAY WILL COOL A LITTLE
TO 11-12C LATE. FULL MIXING WITH THIS AIR SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S MOST PLACES...THE UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL MEAN DRY MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S. RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING MONDAY WITH 850 MB
TEMPS 10-12C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS AROUND 80.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 50 IN THE INTERIOR TO AROUND 60
ALONG THE COAST.
TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
COINCIDES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGH
AMOUNTS OF SHEAR. IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
GREATEST THREAT. WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS AND
MENTION THUNDER BUT AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SEVERE OUT
OF THE GRIDS AND LIMIT THAT MENTION TO THE HWO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRIOR TO THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY...MORE AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER SERIES OF FRONTS COULD MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FAR OUT THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONGST
THE MODELS. SOME SAY A WARM FRONT FRIDAY AND COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
OTHERS SAY A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND STILL OTHERS SAY A WARM FRONT
THAT WILL MISS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AND A COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY. WILL ONLY MAKE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS FOR THESE
DAYS SINCE THE PICTURE IS SO UNCLEAR.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
06Z TAFS BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR 09Z-12Z AS HANNA TRACKS
OFF E MA COAST NEAR PLYMOUTH...THEN TO VFR BY 15Z AS LOW CLOUDS SCOUR
OUT.
CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS HEADING OFF CAPE COD AS OF 0530Z AND WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AS HANNA TRACKS ACROSS RI AND SE MA THROUGH 09Z. WINDS
SHIFT TO N BEHIND STORM WITH 30KT GUSTS LIKELY...THEN GRADIENT WILL
MAINTAIN 25KT GUSTS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH W WINDS 10KT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...THEN MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
MARINE
VAD WIND PROFILES AT BOX-ENX-GYX SHOW 30-35 KNOTS IN THE SFC TO 5000
FOOT LAYER. MIXING ALONG WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN A
LINGERING PERIOD THIS MORNING OF SUSTAINED OR FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND
THE GALE THRESHOLD. WE WILL TRANSITION TO A FEW HOURS OF MORNING GALES
ON THE EASTERN WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE REMAINING
WATERS. AS THE SURFACE CENTER MOVES FARTHER AWAY WE WILL SEE THE WINDS
DIMINISH TO BELOW 25 KNOTS.
HIGH SEAS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS WILL DROP BELOW 5 FEET BY MONDAY
MORNING ON THE INNER WATERS...BUT 5 FOOT SEAS WILL LINGER ON THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH SEAS WITH LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL MEAN A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST BEACHES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR TODAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA LIKELY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND WAVES WILL FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTH NASHUA RIVER AT FITCHBURG WHERE LATEST
NERFC FORECAST BRINGS RIVER JUST OVER ITS 6.5 FT FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. OTHER SMALLER RIVERS HAVE SHOWN SHARP RISES DUE TO
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.
WE CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON RI WHERE
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT
URBAN FLOODING. WE ANTICIPATE THESE WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE EARLY THIS MORNING. FLOOD WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS WELL SINCE RENEWED FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ020-023-
024.
NH...NONE.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231>233-250-
254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
234-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...WTB/RLG
HYDROLOGY...JWD
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