930
FXUS61 KBOX 091720
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1220 PM EST MON NOV 9 2009
SYNOPSIS
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR THROUGH
TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY...BRINGING COOLER AIR BY LATE IN THE DAY. A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL STORM WILL PROBABLY REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS INTO
OUR REGION. THIS HIGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE. UNSEASONABLY
MILD AFTERNOON IN STORE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE. FORECAST HIGHS IN 60S/LOWER
70S ARE ON TRACK WHICH SHOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF RECORD LOWS LISTED
IN CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
SHOULD SEE FEW HOURS OF 20-25 MPH GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH
OF MASS PIKE WHERE DEEPER MIXING LAYER IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AS SUNSET APPROACHES.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE LIMITED MOISTURE EXCEPT AT 500 MB AND ABOVE. CONSIDERABLE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA AND ALSO DUE TO AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER BEHIND
THE FRONT IN THE LOWER LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS....FIRST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. STAYED CLOSE TO MOS
GUIDANCE...BUT RAISED A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN CT...RHODE
ISLAND AND SE MASSACHUSETTS DUE TO THE MILD START.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST LARGELY BASED ON THE NAM...GGEM AND
ECMWF. DISCOUNTED THE 00Z GFS AS ITS SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER.
WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE ESTABLISHING A HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS WEEKEND. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT NEXT SUNDAY.
WE WILL STILL KEEP AN EYE ON IDA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HOW IT MAY
INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FOR MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS BE LESS OF A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER AS IT REMAINS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON 20-25KT S/SW WIND GUSTS THROUGH 22Z FOR ALL BUT
KACK BEFORE WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH 21-23Z. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WITH CIGS AOA 15KFT THROUGH TONIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY GROUND FOG 06Z-12Z TUE...BUT WILL NOT
AFFECT TAF SITES.
CONFIDENT ON COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 12Z-16Z
TUE ACCOMPANIED BY WIND SHIFT TO N/NE. VFR CIGS AOA 8KFT.
KBOS TAF...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT THROUGH 22Z BEFORE SUBSIDING.
SEEING GUSTS 28-30KT AT BLUE HILL /KMQE/ SO THERE IS ALSO LOW
PROBABILITY OF SEEING BRIEF 30KT GUSTS. KBOX WSR-88D SHOWS 20-25KT SW
WINDS UP TO 2KFT WITH LIGHTER WINDS ABOVE. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AOA
8KFT THROUGH 18Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT TO NW AROUND 15Z TUE AND
BECOME N AFTER 18Z TUE.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
THIS AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR SW WINDS TO GUST AROUND 20KT NEAR
SHORE ALONG NE MA COAST. DECIDED AGAINST SCA AS GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH SUNSET.
TONIGHT...SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING
NEAR SHORE NORTHEAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 2 TO 4 FT.
TUESDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO N DURING THE MORNING WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLY THE REMNANTS OF IDA...IS
EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THIS HIGH PRESSURE TO GENERATE
STRONG NORTH WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE.
UNDERCUT THE WNA WAVE HEIGHT GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT IS DRIVEN
BY THE GFS WINDS. WITH THE GFS SOLUTION CONSIDERED TO BE AN
OUTLIER...DO NOT THINK THE WNA OUTPUT IS REALISTIC IN THIS CASE. IF
THIS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES SOONER...OR THE OCEAN STORM PASSES FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH...MAY NEED TO CUT BACK ON WINDS AND SEAS EVEN FURTHER.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY 11/9...FOR REFERENCE
BOS 74 IN 1945
PVD 74 IN 1945
BDL 76 IN 1975
ORH 71 IN 1945
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BELK/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/JWD
MARINE...BELK/JWD
CLIMATE...
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