923  
FXUS61 KGYX 232225  
AFDGYX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME  
525 PM EST THU NOV 23 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE  
REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES IN  
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY  
ALLOWING A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP THAT WILL CONTINUE  
INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE  
SATURDAY BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. A COLD UPPER TROF  
SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME SCATTERED RAIN  
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. MORE HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
 
 
530 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS EVENING MAINLY  
FOR CLOUD COVER. AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS SPREAD AN  
EXPANSIVE DECK OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THIS  
EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE IT MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR SEVERAL HOURS, BUT  
A CLEARING TREND IS FORESEEN LATER ON. OTHERWISE, NO  
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.  
 
PREVIOUSLY...  
 
WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL GRAZE THE NRN CWA TONIGHT, AND SPREAD  
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND  
PERHAPS PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE MOUNTAINS.  
ACTUAL BEST CHC OF SNOW IN THE NORTH WILL COME IN THE SURGE OF  
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT, AIR LITTLE  
DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF IT.  
 
MINS ARE A BIT OF CHALLENGE, AS CLOUDS START THE EVENING, WITH  
CLEARING LATE. HOWEVER ALONG WITH THE CLEARING COMES INCREASING  
W FLOW ON THE BOUNDARY LYR, AND THIS MAY LIMIT RAD COOLING IN  
ALL BUT THE MOST SHELTERED AREAS. IN THE N, CLOUDS WILL BE  
LINGERING ALL NIGHT, SO LIMITED COOLING THERE. THIS SHOULD  
BRING US LOWS IN THE IN THE 20S, COOLEST N, AND WARMEST S,  
ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY DIP THIS EVENING AND HOLD STEADY THRU THE  
REST OF THE NIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
SFC RIDGE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH, AND THE WEST FLOW GRADUALLY  
SHIFTS TO SW DURING THE DAY, WITH WARNER AIR STARTING TO MOVE  
IN. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO  
CLEAR BRIEFLY IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH  
HIGHS RANGING FROM 35-40 IN THE MOUNTAINS, TO THE MID-UPPER 40S  
ALONG THE COST AND IN SRN NH.  
 
ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT, AS WAA  
STARTS UP AGAIN AHEAD OF SFC LOW WHICH TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH  
ACROSS QUEBEC. SW FLOW INCREASES AND WITH CLOUDS ROLLING IN  
LOWS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE NIGHT, WITH TEMPS  
STEADYING OR RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THOSE LOWS WILL BE MILD FOR  
LATE NOVEMBER, GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE LONG  
WAVE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH  
DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IN  
RESPONSE...THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH EVENTUALLY GOES NEGATIVE  
TILT BY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN  
QUEBEC WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS  
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY PRECEDED BY A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW.  
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND  
SUNDAY AS IT BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. LOW  
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY AND RAPIDLY  
INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER TROUGH GOES NEGATIVE TILT...BUT TOO FAR  
OFFSHORE FOR ANY MEANINGFUL IMPACTS TO OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE  
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT DURING MONDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS  
AND RESULTANT RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE  
WESTERN CONUS PROVIDING THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF  
MILD WEATHER TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
LONG TERM...  
 
SAT PM - SUN AM...AREAS OF MVFR IN -SHRA AND MTN -SHRA/-SHSN.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR SEAS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT, AS 5-6 FT  
SEAS SHOULD PERSISTS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM  
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE A SHORT-LIVED BREAK FROM  
SCA ON FRIDAY, BUT INCREASING SW FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCA BY  
FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
LONG TERM...  
 
SAT...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.  
 
SUN - TUE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE BAYS.  
 

 
   
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
NH...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY  
FOR ANZ150-152.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab ME Page
The Nexlab NH Page Main Text Page