506
FXUS61 KGYX 220801
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
301 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING
DAY. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT SLOWLY
MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TODAY WITH SOME
LOWER STRATOCUMULUS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION OVER NORTHERN AND
MOUNTAIN SECTIONS THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY MILD...READING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE
NORMALS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH THIN CLOUDS ARRIVING.
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME 5 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOR MONDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH PA AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. NAM AND ECMWF
LIFTASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH THAN GFS. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY ON MONDAY.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES WILL INCREASE POPS TO CHC IN SRN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE AS SYSTEM SLIDES EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED MODELS INDICATE RIDGING AT 5H. WED MAY
TURN OUT TO BE A FAIRLY GOOD DAY. I AM PROBABLY TOO PESIMISTIC
WITH THE CLOUD COVER.
BEYOND WED CONFIDENCE IN FCST IS LOW AS GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE
THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN DEVELOPS A STRONG SFC LOW OVER
NYC FRI. ECMWF IS SIMILAR. GEM BRINGS SFC LOW THROUGH SRN CANADA.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY VFR TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL IFR IN ANY
PATCHY VALLEY FOG UNTIL 11Z-13Z.
LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THURS EXCEPT SOME PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED MON NIGHT AND TUE AS SFC LOW MOVES
JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SCA PSBL THUR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND GALE
FORCE WINDS PSBL FRI AND SAT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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