377  
FXUS61 KGYX 222147 AAA  
AFDGYX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME  
547 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE REMNANTS OF JOSE WILL MEANDER WELL SOUTH OF CAPE COD INTO  
THE WEEKEND, GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH TIME. MEANWHILE, A LARGE  
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS  
OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE'LL  
SEE A VERY NICE STRETCH OF DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER  
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH AT  
LEAST MONDAY. A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF  
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SWEEPING SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ON  
THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
 
 
5:50 PM UPDATE...  
A FEW SHOWERS FROM JOSE ARE BRUSHING COASTAL AND SOUTHERN NH AS  
WELL AS SOUTHERN YORK COUNTY IN MAINE. THESE SHOWERS WILL  
GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS JOSE SHIFTS AWAY.  
MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE (DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S) WILL  
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY IN AREAS WITHOUT CLOUD COVER.  
WINDS SHOULD ALSO DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE  
FORECAST EXCEPT TO ADD FOG TO ADDITIONAL VALLEYS AND ADJUST  
POPS.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
JOSE REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY WELL SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE  
NORTHERN CLOUD SHIELD MADE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN AREAS AND WILL  
LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS  
THE CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY WORK FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN  
AREAS TOWARD MORNING AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE  
TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOME  
NEAR CALM OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS WILL MEAN COOL LOW  
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE  
LOWER 60S DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED  
ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, JOSE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WELL SOUTH  
OF CAPE COD. MEANWHILE, A LARGE RIDGE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE  
INTO THE REGION WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY  
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH WARMER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL REACH  
INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE  
LATE-SEASON HEAT SUNDAY AND HOW LONG THAT LASTS. SUNDAY WILL  
INDEED BE VERY WARM TO HOT WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S TO  
AROUND 90 IN SPOTS WHICH WILL BE RECORD-TYING OR RECORD-BREAKING  
HEAT IN SOME AREAS, MOST NOTABLY CONCORD NH (RECORD FOR SUNDAY  
THERE IS 90). FORECAST PROBLEMS ARISE ON MONDAY AS SOME GUIDANCE  
(LIKE THE GFS AND NAM) ARE SUGGESTING A BACKDOOR FRONT COOLS US  
DOWN SIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF STILL STAYS VERY WARM.  
RIGHT NOW I THINK THE ECMWF HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE DEEP  
LAYER RIDGE POSITION OVERHEAD AND THEREFORE A BETTER HANDLE ON  
SHORT WAVE PROGRESSION THAT COULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BACKDOOR  
FRONT MOVEMENT. FOR NOW THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AND  
KEEPS THE REGION (EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST) QUITE WARM MONDAY  
RIGHT THROUGH TUE. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE MAXES AND MINS  
BUT GAVE THE ECMWF MUCH GREATER WEIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH  
CLOSELY, HOWEVER AS WE ALL KNOW HOW EASY IT IS FOR DENSER LOW  
LEVEL COOL AIR TO SLIP ON DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE,  
IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO  
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WED/THU WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS, PROBABLY MORE LIKELY WED. THEREAFTER, MUCH COOLER  
WEATHER ARRIVES AS MARIA PASSES WELL OUT TO SEA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT SOME MVFR  
CIGS OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS OF ME/NH THROUGH THE EARLY  
EVENING. LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP 06Z-13Z SAT ALONG THE CT RIVER  
VALLEY ONCE AGAIN OTHERWISE VFR.  
 
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH  
TUESDAY, WITH IFR VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE REMNANTS OF JOSE WILL  
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WELL SOUTH OF CAPE COD THROUGH  
SATURDAY. THIS WILL MEAN SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE  
OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF  
HAZ SEAS, EXCEPT SOUTHERNMOST AREAS WHERE GUSTY WINDS MAY  
CONTINUE. IN CASCO BAY...SWELLS OF 3-6 FT CONTINUE ALONG THE  
OUTER HARBOR AREAS SO A SCA DUE TO HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BE NEEDED  
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
LONG TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY  
MIDWEEK.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM THE REMNANTS OF JOSE WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION REMAINS POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ023>027.  
NH...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NHZ014.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM EDT  
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-153.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ154.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...HANES  
SHORT TERM...MARINE  
LONG TERM...EKSTER  
 
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