892  
FXUS61 KGYX 150244  
AFDGYX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME  
1044 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE SLOW MOVING AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER  
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS  
THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS  
EVENING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL DIMINISH TO WIDELY SCATTERED  
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE  
EAST WITH A TRAILING FRONT THAT CROSSES THE AREA SETTING OFF  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER  
THE REGION WITH FAIR AND WARM WEATHER THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF  
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND BRING MORE  
UNSETTLED WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
1030 PM...INCREASED FOG COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. OTHER  
THAN THAT MINOR ESTF UPDATE INPUTTING LATEST HIGH RES MODEL  
PRECIPITATION.  
 
PREV DISC...  
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ALLOWING THE SLOW  
MOVING UPPER LOW TO DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.  
SATURATED LOW LEVELS COMBINE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL UVV INTO THIS  
EVENING TO PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS  
SOUTHERN AREAS OF NH AND SOUTHWEST ME. PWATS ARE EXTREMELY HIGH  
SO TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS CONVECTION AS IT  
MOVES NORTHEAST BEFORE MOSTLY DISSIPATING ONCE IT LOSING ITS  
DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL BUT FORTUNATELY THERE IS ENOUGH MOVEMENT THAT  
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING SHOULD NOT DEVELOP.  
 
THE REST OF THE NIGHT COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE FOG REDEVELOP AS THE  
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ONE MORE NIGHT AND HIGH  
DEWPOINTS REMAIN. BY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ONLY  
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL  
REMAIN MILD AND ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BUT A  
TRAILING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH  
ALL THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME HEATING, SOME  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY  
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER  
WEDNESDAY REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS  
AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. USED A BLEND OF  
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WED. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE  
AFTERNOON HELPING WARM THE TEMPS AND BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE LOWER  
LEVELS BY LATER IN THE DAY.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH SOMEWHAT  
COOLER TEMPS AND DRIER AIR.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
A RATHER FAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY CHANGING  
CONDITIONS IN THE DAILY WEATHER PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY  
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY QUIET  
WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT  
LAKES WILL PUSH EAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RESULTING IN  
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL  
BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHORT WAVE RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD RETURN DRY WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE  
SOUTH OF THE AREA TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND  
MONDAY,AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WITH  
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. A CUT-OFF LOW IS  
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST AND AFFECT THE WEATHER WITH MORE  
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH  
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN AS  
DESCRIBED ABOVE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN  
SCT TSTMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NH AND SOUTHWEST ME INTO  
THIS EVENING. THEN VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH WIDELY SCT SHOWERS.  
VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM VFR AND MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS IN INLAND  
AREAS TO LIFR ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN AREAS OF FOG. WED VFR  
CONDITIONS EXCEPT MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE FRONTAL  
PASSAGE. VFR CONDITIONS WED NIGHT.  
 
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THURDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL  
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT  
RETURNING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVING  
CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING  
BY SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO  
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.  
 
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED  
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. ON SUNDAY WINDS OVER THE OUTER  
WATERS MAY GUST TO 25 KTS AT TIMES BUT OVER ALL CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.  
 

 
   
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
NH...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...  
NEAR TERM...SCHROETER  
SHORT TERM...MARINE  
LONG TERM...LULOFS  
AVIATION...  
MARINE...  
 
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