217  
FXUS61 KPHI 241447  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
1047 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND  
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD THE MID  
ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION  
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY  
THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE  
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL TRACK UP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT  
LAKES TUESDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT  
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVES LOCALLY LATER WEDNESDAY,  
THEN HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE DURING THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
930 AM ESTF: NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 830AM. WILL WIND GUSTS 2-3  
MORE KTS HERE IN AN INTERIM 11 AM UPDATE.  
 
OTHERWISE...TODAY IS ALREADY A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE.  
 
IT IS WINDY WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 35 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND 25-30  
MPH ELSEWHERE.  
 
II WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AND BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR  
LATE OCTOBER. TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
LOOKS LIKE VARIABLE MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN THROUGH 20Z THEN CLEARING  
MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  
 
TONIGHT WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT. WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR  
GUSTINESS AND BECOME LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. JUST SOME  
CIRRUS AT TIMES HERE AND THERE. WE SHOULD RADIATE A BIT.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND  
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION...IE  
NEAR NORMAL LOWS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
 
 
SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS  
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME WEST AND GUST 20 TO  
POSSIBLY 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS  
TODAY. A VERY NICE DAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN  
THOSE NUMBERS OF TODAY...IN OTHER WORDS STILL 5+ ABOVE NORMAL AS  
WE HEAD FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL MONTH TEMPERATURE WISE...PROBABLY AT  
LEAST 2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL!  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS  
THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ASSISTS IN FORCING ANOTHER  
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND,  
HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW  
ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE  
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES  
IN THE EAST DURING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE  
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING  
EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND  
TUESDAY SHOULD SEND A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN A MUCH  
WARMER AIRMASS ARRIVING, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY  
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW DURING THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL  
BLEND FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC  
GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER  
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.  
 
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH  
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT  
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST  
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR  
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND ENOUGH  
DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN JUST PERHAPS A FEW  
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS THEN  
EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER, HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST TO  
TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE  
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND,  
WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID  
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED AS MIXING  
DEEPENS /STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY  
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH  
DECREASING WINDS AND CHILLIER TEMPERATURES.  
 
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST  
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY  
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN  
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE  
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION  
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT, WITH THE BULK OF  
THE WAA PUSH AIMED TO OUR WEST. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS  
TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.  
 
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE  
SHIFTING TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES  
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO  
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH  
OF THE ENERGY MAY SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW,  
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. GIVEN THE  
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD, WARMER  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AND A CONTINUITY/WPC GUIDANCE BLEND  
RESULTS IN A BUMP UP IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. THE  
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TENDING  
TO BUILD IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO ALREADY BE MOVING  
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,  
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 CLEARS LATE IN THE DAY. NW  
WIND GUST AROUND 25 KT.  
 
TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 20000 FT. NW WIND GUSTS DIMINISH TO LESS  
THAN 15 KT.  
 
SATURDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT BECOME BKN CIGS NEAR 500 FT  
MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. WEST WIND GUST 20 KT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST - NORTHWEST WIND.  
 
SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30  
KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.  
 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
THE GRADIENT IS STARTING TO LOOSEN UP A BIT BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL  
REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE WATERS TODAY, IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.  
 
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY, IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE.  
 
SEAS AND NORTHWEST WIND WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT... FALLING BELOW  
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING.  
 
SATURDAY...WEST WIND GUST 20 KT. NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE  
DAYLIGHT HOURS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT AND SOME COOLING  
COMBINED WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP SHOULD  
RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS. OVERALL, BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA  
DURING THE DAY BUT THEN GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS COULD DEVELOP  
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  
 
SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MET WITH  
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND BETTER MIXING. NORTHWEST  
WINDS SHOULD GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS, BUT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AT  
NIGHT. THE SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD, BUT GIVEN AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE  
5 FOOTERS SHOULD BE TOWARD THE OUTER EDGE OF THE COASTAL WATERS.  
 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
BUOY 44065 IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED FOR SERVICE AROUND JANUARY 12,  
2015, WEATHER PERMITTING.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
DE...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-  
431-450>455.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...GORSE  
NEAR TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 1046  
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 1046  
LONG TERM...GORSE  
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 1046  
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 1046  
EQUIPMENT...  
 
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