923  
FXUS61 KPHI 230151  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
951 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT  
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD  
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE  
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD  
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A  
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING  
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
 
 
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF DELMARVA THIS  
EVENING. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW  
JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW  
WAS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE  
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE  
OF THE NIGHT.  
 
IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW  
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND  
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO  
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.  
 
RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST  
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE  
RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST  
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA  
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE  
CWA SHOULD BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER  
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOES...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
 
 
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD  
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.  
 
WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM  
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.  
 
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20  
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST  
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS  
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS  
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES  
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR  
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY  
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.  
 
FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR  
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR  
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE  
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S  
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.  
 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,  
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT  
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER  
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA  
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH  
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO  
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL  
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE  
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY  
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY  
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT  
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY  
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN  
SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST  
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE  
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING  
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT  
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH  
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,  
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR  
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN.  
 
THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY  
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO  
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO  
LATE AFTERNOON.  
 
THE WIND SHIFTED FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET, AND A  
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED  
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO  
THE 20S OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.  
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,  
LOWER ON SHOWERS.  
 
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD  
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.  
 
MONDAY...VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR OCEAN  
WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION  
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH  
TO NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS  
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER  
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES  
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST  
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.  
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.  
 
SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM  
CONFIDENCE.  
 
SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM  
CONFIDENCE.  
 
MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE  
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY EVENING  
PEAKED JUST AT OR SLIGHTLY UNDER MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ALONG THE  
OCEAN. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...THURSDAY MORNING AROUND NOON...WILL  
HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL COMPONENT BUT WINDS WILL HAVE  
A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST COMPONENT WHICH MIGHT HELP PUSH WATER  
AWAY FROM THE COAST. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE EXPECTING  
WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED THRESHOLDS  
NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE  
SITUATION AND ISSUE ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
DE...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...GORSE  
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MIKETTA  
SHORT TERM...IOVINO  
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER  
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA  
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab PA Page
The Nexlab NJ Page
The Nexlab DE Page
The Nexlab MD Page Main Text Page