340  
FXUS61 KPHI 292032  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
432 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WILL  
STALL OUT THERE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETURN NORTHWARD AS  
A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT  
LATER TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER LATER WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY BEFORE SETTLING OVER OUR AREA ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
WARM AND HUMID DAY ONGOING. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY  
TODAY, THOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE  
COAST OF BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. SOME CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO  
DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA AND BAY BREEZE (ISOLATED CELLS HAVE ALREADY  
POPPED). ONLY AROUND A 30-40% POP THOUGH AS CELLS WILL BE SCATTERED  
IN COVERAGE. A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK IS IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF  
OF THE AREA. WHILE SHEAR IS NEAR ZERO, INSTABILITY IS MODEST AND  
CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG DOWNDRAFT PRODUCING SOME DAMAGING WIND  
GUSTS. CONVECTION DIES OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MOST  
OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY SAVE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE  
STALLED FRONT OVER THE REGION. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THAT  
SHOULD BE POSITIONED NEAR I-76 AND I-195 WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY  
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FOR THE NORTHERN STRETCHES  
OF THE AREA, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 60S.  
 
FOR TOMORROW, THAT STALLED FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT,  
PUTTING THE AREA FULLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT  
ON TUESDAY. MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY  
SKIES TO START THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS INSTABILITY BUILDS ON THE  
ORDER OF 2000+ J/KG OF SBCAPE. SHEAR INCREASES A BIT COMPARED TO  
TODAY WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING  
TROUGH. CONVECTION WILL BE A TAD MORE WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO TODAY  
AS WELL GIVEN STRONGER FORCING, BUT STILL ONLY AROUND 30-50% POP  
OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SHEAR INCREASES, IT WILL BE THE LIMITING  
FACTOR FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. GIVEN TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILES  
THOUGH, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER DOWNBURSTS PRODUCING DAMAGING  
WIND GUSTS. SPC HAS MOST OF THE REGION IN A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SLOW MOVING CONVECTION COULD ALSO RESULT IN  
SOME FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF DEVELOPING OVER A MORE URBAN AREA  
(SOMETHING THE LATEST HRRR HAS BEEN HINTING AT WHICH IS A TOUCH  
CONCERNING).  
 
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW, HIGHS GET INTO THE UPPER 80S  
TO AROUND 90. TOMORROW MARKS THE LAST DAY OF LOWER HEAT ADVISORY  
CRITERIA FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR (> 96 HEAT INDEX FOR TWO HOURS). A  
HEAT ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED BUT DEW POINTS SHOULD MIX OUT A BIT TO  
KEEP HEAT INDICES AROUND 94-95.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ON MONDAY NIGHT, THE STALLED OUT FRONT STARTS TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A  
WARM FRONT AND THIS CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY  
MORNING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.  
 
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY. DURING THE DAY  
TUESDAY, WE WILL BE WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR AS THAT WARM FRONT  
FROM MONDAY NIGHT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE NORTH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS,  
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY SOME  
AS IT OVERSPREADS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL DRIVE A  
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TUESDAY.  
 
IN TERMS OF THE SET-UP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF TUESDAY, SHEAR WILL BE  
ON THE RISE, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO SOME OF OUR RECENT SEVERE  
WEATHER DAYS. ALSO, HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S WITH DEW POINTS  
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR GROWING  
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS STILL  
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WELL THE SHEAR AND AREAS OF HIGHER CAPE  
OVERLAP ALONG WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY  
IS THE MORNING CONVECTION. IF THE MORNING ACTIVITY TAKES LONGER TO  
DISSIPATE AND CLOUDS LINGER LONGER, THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON HOW  
WELL WE DESTABILIZE BEFORE THE COLD FRONT. RIGHT NOW, THE MORNING  
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE DONE BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY WITH  
ENOUGH TIME TO GET MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER  
OUTLOOK HAS ADDED A SLIGHT (2/5) RISK FOR MOST OF OUR AREA WITH  
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK. THE PRIMARY  
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  
 
ONE OTHER KEY IMPACT POINT FOR TUESDAY IS A FLASH FLOODING THREAT.  
ALL OF THE AREA IS IN A MARGINAL (1/4) WITH DELMARVA IN A SLIGHT  
(2/4) RISK IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK WITH THE CONCERN FOR  
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. PWAT VALUES WILL RISE TO 2-2.5 INCHES WITH  
WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 10-12 KFT, SO THE SIGNAL IS THERE FOR THE  
CONVECTION TO BE SUFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THE GOOD NEWS  
IS THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING BUT ANY TRAINING OF  
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED CONCERN FOR  
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL FOR SOME  
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH COULD ALSO  
ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION RATES WITH THE CONVECTION.  
 
THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO COME TO AN END BETWEEN 00Z-03Z WEDNESDAY,  
BUT GIVEN THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT, IT IS STILL NEAR THE  
COASTAL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO  
THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING COVERAGE OF SOME SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY  
MORNING. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO  
MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME  
REINFORCED AS IT REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE  
END OF THIS WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN  
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SETTLING OVER OUR AREA ON  
FRIDAY.  
 
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE  
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC MAY TEND TO SHARPEN AGAIN AS  
ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROUNDS ITS BASE. OUR TUESDAY COLD FRONT SHOULD  
BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY, AND WHILE  
TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK TO DROP MUCH, THE DEW POINTS ARE  
FORECAST TO LOWER SOME IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. DESPITE  
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, LESS IN THE WAY OF  
DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THE INSTABILITY LOWER AS WELL. GIVEN  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING CLOSER TO OUR AREA WITH TIME,  
THE CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME IS  
LITTLE TO NONE FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY, A  
WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SINK SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND  
MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR AREAS NEAR AND NW OF I-78.  
 
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO  
STILL BE IN PLACE WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE  
ESTABLISHED OVER OUR AREA. THE RETURN FLOW UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL  
INCREASE THE LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH A NORTHEASTWARD  
MOVING WARM FRONT. THE FORCING FOR THIS, AS OF NOW, LOOKS TO REMAIN  
WELL TO OUR WEST AND THEREFORE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER CHANCES.  
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FOR MOST, AND THE DEW POINTS ARE  
FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. OVERALL, LOOKS LIKE A NICE  
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY. NICE WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE  
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN CONTROL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
REST OF TODAY (THROUGH 00Z)...PRIMARILY VFR. 20-40% CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT KMIV/KACY WHICH COULD RESULT IN  
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS. WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 5-10 KT.  
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH 06Z. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING  
AROUND THE AREA. KEPT SOME TERMINALS VFR BUT ADDED IN A TEMPO  
GROUP AT KRDG/KILG/KMIV/KACY WHERE PROBABILITIES OF MVFR VSBYS  
ARE AROUND 30-40%. PROBABILITIES ARE LESS AROUND KPHL AND POINTS  
NORTH, ONLY AROUND 15-20%, SO KEPT OUT FOR NOW. CANNOT RULE OUT  
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THOUGH. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
 
MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. ANY FOG MIXES OUT BY 12Z. WINDS PICK UP  
OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 5-10 KT BY THE LATE MORNING. CHANCE FOR  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (30-50%) WHICH COULD BRING  
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO ALL TERMINALS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THOUGH WITH  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (40-60%).  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY (70-90%)  
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH, MAINLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW  
AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED. SOME SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE (20-30%).  
 
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH WIND  
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS AND SEAS REACHING 5 FEET. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (60-80%).  
 
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  
 
RIP CURRENTS...  
 
FOR MONDAY, WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEAST AND THE  
PERIOD WILL REMAIN AROUND 9 SECONDS WITH BREAKING WAVES AROUND 2  
TO 3 FEET. THUS, WE'LL KEEP A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT  
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR MOST OF THE NJ SHORE AND WENT LOW  
RISK FOR DELAWARE BEACHES AND COASTAL OCEAN COUNTY.  
 
FOR TUESDAY, WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND THE PERIOD  
WILL BE AROUND 7 SECONDS WITH BREAKING WAVES AROUND 1 TO 3  
FEET. THUS, WE HAVE A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF  
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR MOST OF THE NJ SHORE AND WENT LOW  
RISK FOR DELAWARE BEACHES AND EASTERN MONMOUTH COUNTY.  
 
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
DE...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...GUZZO/HOEFLICH  
NEAR TERM...HOEFLICH  
SHORT TERM...GUZZO  
LONG TERM...GUZZO  
AVIATION...GUZZO/HOEFLICH  
MARINE...GUZZO/HOEFLICH  
 
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