623
FXUS61 KPHI 090758
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 AM EST MON NOV 9 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION PROVIDING NICE WEATHER FOR
A COUPLE MORE DAYS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING FOR WHAT'S AHEAD MID WEEK, AS WE COULD
CONTINUE MILD AND DRY OR A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
COULD MOVE NORTH AND BRING US SOME PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
OUR GROWING SEASON ENDED BEFORE ALL AREAS RECEIVED A KILLING FROST
SO "TECHNICALLY" ALTHOUGH MILD I DON'T THINK OUR WEATHER CAN BE
CHARACTERIZED AS INDIAN SUMMER. THERE ARE SOME WHO MAY GIVE ME AN
ARGUMENT HOWEVER. NEVERTHELESS, IT CERTAINLY FELT LIKE AN INDIAN
SUMMER DAY OUT THERE AS WE HAD A RECORD TIED AT ATLANTIC CITY WITH A
72 READING LAST REACHED IN 1975. THE SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER US AND
THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG ABOUT, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ACCORDING TO
THE SATELLITE CURVE. SATELLITE DOES SHOW THE ENHANCED CLOUDS
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE, AND THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM IDA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
NICE WEATHER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE TWO SYSTEMS MOVE IN OUR
DIRECTION RATHER SLOWLY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
WITH THE CONCERN FOR THE FLU AND THE THE CARE BEING TAKEN WE HAVE
HAND SANITIZER BOTTLES SCATTERED AROUND THE WORKPLACE HERE. I MUST
HAVE WASHED MY HANDS TENS OF TIMES IN THE PAST WEEK. HOWEVER, I
WOULD LIKE TO WASH MY HANDS OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST BECAUSE IT IS
ANYTHING BUT CLEAR. AND, IT MAY OR MAY NOT BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
WEATHER DURING THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
COAST THE MOISTURE MENTIONED ON SATELLITE WILL MAKE A MOVE TOWARD
OUR CWA. OUR EARLIER FORECAST HAD PRECIPITATION ON OUR SOUTHERN
DOORSTEP EARLY TUESDAY BUT THAT IS BEING PUSHED BACK AGAIN TO
SOMETIME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY, AND IT MAY EVEN BE
PUSHED BACK AGAIN. SINCE FORECASTERS RELY SO HEAVILY ON THE MODEL
FORECASTS, WHEN THEY SHOW "GREAT" DISPARITY YOU STILL HAVE TO
CONSIDER ALL THE SOLUTIONS. WHILE MOST SOLUTIONS ARE INFERRING A
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY TOWARD THE SHORE WITH LITTLE ELSE TO
WORRY ABOUT, ONE OF THE MODELS APPEARS DELIRIOUS, AND WANTS TO BRING
DOOM AND GLOOM TO THE REGION. IT'S SOLUTION IS CERTAINLY NOTHING TO
SNEEZE AT. HOWEVER, WHENEVER WE SEE THIS HAPPENING AMONG THE MODELS,
INSTEAD OF JUMPING ON THE WORST CASE SCENARIO, IT BECOMES PRUDENT TO
SEE WHAT THE NEXT, OR NEXT TWO MODEL RUNS LOOK LIKE. WITH THAT SAID
WE WILL REMAIN MILD AGAIN ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
TO REACH FOR THE SANITIZER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BECAUSE OF THE LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME FOR THE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. FROM THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION...A LOW CONFIDENCE PERIOD IS SHAPING UP, AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
PESSIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA IN BRINGING THE TROPICAL LOW FURTHER NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE 12Z HIGH-RESOLUTION ECMWF IS MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH THE SOLUTION, BOTH FOR THE SURFACE AND AT UPPER
LEVELS. HPC SEEMS TO SIDE MORE WITH THE GFS. AT THIS TIME,
CONTINUITY FROM THE SHORT TERM WAS FOLLOWED FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOUTH AND CENTRAL, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURROUNDING OFFICES LIKED THE IDEA OF NO WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AS THE
MODELS DRAG THE SYSTEM AWAY, AND THIS THEME WAS ADOPTED FOR THURSDAY
FOR NOW. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE SEEMS TO BE BUILT BY THE MODELS AND
HPC FOR SUCCEEDING TIME PERIODS, ALTHOUGH NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NEIGHBORS BROUGHT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE OHIO
VALLEY WARM FRONT SATURDAY. WE JUST BROUGHT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFFSHORE TODAY, BUT REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, GENERALLY
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS
EARLY THIS MORNING, WHERE A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND HAS RESULTED IN
SOME PATCHY FOG. MVFR VSBYS ARE OCCURRING IN MOST LOCATIONS AND
SOME LCL IFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER, SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE,
CONDS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR.
A SWLY WIND IS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING OR ERLY AFTN WITH SPEEDS
LESS THAN 10 KT. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
TODAY AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT, BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. A
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY BUT IT LOOKS TO BE DRY
ATTM. THE ONLY CONSEQUENCE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW AND
EVENTUALLY NE.
OUTLOOK...
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THINGS COULD GET
INTERESTING, BUT UNFORTUNATELY, THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST. THE
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HRCN IDA MAY CREEP N FROM THE SERN
CONUS. EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON THE
FCST FOR THIS TIME. THE MAJORITY OF THE COMPUTER MDLS BRING IN A
BIG HIGH OVER THE NRN TIER WHICH KEEPS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE WELL TO OUR S, WITH THE NRN EXTENT BARELY MAKING IT N OF
KTTN. HOWEVER, ONE MODEL CONTINUES TO FCST A MUCH MORE NLY TRACK
WHICH WOULD BRING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN AND CIG AND VSBY
OBSTRUCTIONS. HOWEVER, THIS SOLN IS BEING DISCOUNTED ATTM, BUT STAY
TUNED. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER OUR AREA DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY, BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY ATTM.
THINGS COULD THEN GET POTENTIALLY INTERESTING FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WHAT HAPPENS TO THE REMNANTS OF HRCN IDA IS
THE BIG QUESTION. MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP TE CORE OF THE SYS WELL
TO THE S, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASING SEAS. ADDITIONALLY THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A STRONG AND BUILDING HIGH TO
THE N WILL LIKELY YIELD SOME STRONG AND GUSTY NELY WINDS. CERTAINLY
SCA LOOKS LIKELY, AND GALES ARE A POSSIBILITY. BUT, THERE ARE
NUMEROUS MDL SOLUTIONS ATTM, AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THE LATEST GFS IS STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND IT REMAINS THE OUTLIER
WITH THE STRENGTH AND NWD EXTENT OF THIS SYS. AS A RESULT, THE
WAVEWATCH, WHICH IS BASED OFF THE GFS ALSO SEEMS OVERDONE.
ADDITIONALLY, THE FORECAST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW FROM ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAY LEAD TO SOME TIDAL FLOODING CONCERNS. THE
GOOD NEWS IS, WE ARE AROUND NEAP TIDE, BUT THINGS WILL STILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...EBERWINE
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...EBERWINE/
AVIATION...NIERENBERG
MARINE...NIERENBERG
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