358  
FXUS61 KPHI 230747  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
347 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS  
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH  
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL  
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED  
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL  
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS  
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.  
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY WIND  
OVER THE REGION. THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 30 MPH AND HIGHER.  
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS  
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES. TODAY SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE,  
BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN  
THE NWLY FLOW  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/
 
 
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.  
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN  
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE  
WHOLE NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS  
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S. CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL  
FROST HEADLINES. ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT  
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW  
WIND.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT  
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND  
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU  
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY  
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED  
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE  
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.  
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW  
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS  
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY  
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS  
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI  
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER  
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER  
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.  
 
FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT  
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER  
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.  
 
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE  
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE  
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE  
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE  
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN  
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW  
NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,  
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY  
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S CFP.  
 
THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A  
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE WIND COULD GUST  
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING  
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT. STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE  
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.  
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.  
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
THE GALE WARNG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN AND SCA ON THE  
BAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE LWR BAY FOR AN UPGRADE TO  
GLW IF NEEDED.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE  
AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.  
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI  
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
THE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE CHANGED AS FOLLOWS....THE FIRE  
WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND  
ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY.  
 
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME  
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS OVERNIGHT  
RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN  
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD  
QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.  
 
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND  
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH  
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER  
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE  
WEATHER FORECASTS.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS  
EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.  
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY  
EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.  
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS  
EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.  
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY  
EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.  
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS  
EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.  
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY  
EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.  
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS  
EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.  
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY  
EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.  
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR  
ANZ450>455.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...O'HARA  
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG  
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG  
LONG TERM...O'HARA  
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O'HARA  
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O'HARA  
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF  
 
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