100  
FXUS61 KPHI 020759  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
359 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY.  
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT  
WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A  
WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND  
MAY BECOME STATIONARY NEAR OUR AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
CLEAR BEAUTIFUL EARLY MORNING WITH IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS MUCH  
OF THE COUNTRYSIDE WHERE IT SHOULD BE A BIT FROSTY. MOST OF THE  
SNOW IS MELTED EXCEPT IN THE SHADED REGIONS N OF I-80.  
 
A SUNNY MILD DAY FOLLOWS WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 30  
MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. AFTERNOON TEMPS  
4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR 65 EXCEPT COOLER IN THE ELEVATIONS  
ABOVE 500 FEET. USED PRIOR 330 PM WEDNESDAY FCST TEMPS AS THE  
BASIS OF THIS FCST AS THEY LOOK BETTER THAN THE COOLER MET/MAV  
GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF 2M TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE WARMER FCST  
IN A STRONG DRY WAA PATTERN.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/
 
 
BECOMING CLOUDY. SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THIS EVENING E PA AND NNJ AND  
STEADIER SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES FROM THE NW ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MODEST INSTABILITY  
BURST. KI NEAR 32. SLIGHT CHC OF A TSTM E PA AND NJ LATE AS THE  
ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE WITH ITS ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS  
SEEN VIA THE SWI. THUNDER IS NOT IN THE GRIDS ATTM DUE TO ITS LOW  
PROB OF OCCURRENCE. LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. USED THE  
WARMER 00Z/2 GFS MAVMOS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
OVERVIEW...  
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE NORTHEAST  
CONUS FRI NIGHT...WITH THE FLOW BACKING SOUTHWEST...FOLLOWED BY THE  
PASSAGE OF A STRONG S/WV ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...COMPLEX PATTERN  
EVOLVES AS TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN US AND DOWNSTREAM FLOW  
BECOMES WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH A STATIONARY  
BOUNDARY SETTING UP INVOF THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SET THE  
STAGE FOR A WET PERIOD OF WEATHER.  
 
DALIES...  
FRI...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BREEZY W/SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
LIKELY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE COLD  
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SAT...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY...AND  
THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES IN THE POCONOS. A BRIEF REPRIVE ON  
SUNDAY BEFORE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETS UP INVOF THE MID-ATL  
IN THE MON THRU WED TIME FRAME. THIS COULD LEAD TO HVY RAINFALL  
ATTMS DURING THIS PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,  
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
THROUGH 12Z...CLEAR WITH A FEW CIRRUS MOVING SEWD. CALM TO LIGHT  
SSW WIND.  
 
AFTER 12Z TODAY...VFR CLEAR OR SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT. SW WIND  
INCREASING WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON OF 25-30 KT.  
 
TONIGHT...CIGS AOA 6000 FT AFTER 22Z TODAY BECOMING MVFR OR IFR  
IN SHOWERS AFTER 10Z VCNTY KRDG/KABE BUT PROBABLY REMAINING VFR  
PHL SOUTHWARD. MODEST LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. SW SFC WIND 10-15 KT  
WITH WINDS AT 1000 FT 210 DEGREES 35-40 KT MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND  
230 DEGREES 50 KT AT 2000 FT, ESPECIALLY NEAR 05Z/3.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR WITH SHRA AND TSRA.  
 
SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NO HEADLINES PRIOR TO NOON AS THE WINDS TURN S-SW AT 10-15 KT.  
 
SCA THIS AFTN-TONIGHT AS THE SW WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT, ESPECIALLY  
NEAR SHORE THIS AFTN.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA IN EFFECT.  
 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.  
 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
WE ARE FORECASTING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO  
20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AT THAT  
TIME. ALSO, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND  
25 PERCENT AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.  
 
THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED THREAT OF RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD THIS  
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE ANY SNOW  
COVER(N OF I-80) . WE WILL BE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT  
AT ABOUT 4 AM FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION WITH OUR PARTNERS FOR ANY  
FURTHER UPGRADES.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
DE...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT  
SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK  
NEAR TERM...DRAG  
SHORT TERM...DRAG  
LONG TERM...FRANCK  
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK  
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK  
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF  
 
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