734
FXUS61 KPHI 012325
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
725 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
TAKE SHAPE STARTING THURSDAY, AND ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 7:15 PM, TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE UP IN THE POCONOS AND
NORTHERN NJ OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE, THERE HAS
BEEN AN ABUNDANCE OF WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THAT HAS FILTERED INTO THE AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING, BEFORE
PUSHING OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY, HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO
5-10 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S/50S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE EARLY TO MIDWEEK PERIOD WILL EXPERIENCE A WARMING
TEMPERATURE TREND AND DRY WEATHER. THE WEEKEND TROUGHING WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WEEK, WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
ACROSS THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY, RESULTING IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY TREND TO ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES TUESDAY AND INTO THE MID 80S
BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S MONDAY
NIGHT AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK, WITH
SOME TROUGHING BUILDING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
SET UP A PATTERN WHERE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, LEADING TO MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL, WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE WARMEST DAY STILL APPEARS TO
BY THURSDAY, WHEN DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE A BIT LOWER AND
TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MANY INLAND AREAS.
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, SAVE FOR POSSIBLY NEAR/NORTH
OF I-78. THE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY SUBTLE, SO EXACT DETAILS WILL REMAIN
UNCLEAR IN THIS PERIOD UNTIL A FEW DAYS OUT.
AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR. HAZY CONDITIONS PROBABLE THROUGH 03-05Z DUE TO
WILDFIRE SMOKE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
IN NATURE AT ALL TERMINALS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR AND CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT, WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AROUND 5-10 KT BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SETTLE OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. FAIR WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...SUB-SCA WITH FAIR WEATHER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SSW WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS. SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR MONDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING,
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVES AROUND
1-2 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6-7 SECONDS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A
LOW RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES.
FOR TUESDAY...WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING, WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVES AROUND 1-2
FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7-8 SECONDS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A LOW
RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES.
FOR SPECIFIC BEACH FORECASTS, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/PHI
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STAARMANN
NEAR TERM...DESILVA/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...STAARMANN
LONG TERM...STAARMANN
AVIATION...DESILVA/ROBERTSON/STAARMANN
MARINE...DESILVA/ROBERTSON/STAARMANN
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